To Ernie Banks, Mr. Cub, Hall of Famer.

 

JohnC
jcampbe1@bigpond.net.au
124.190.233.170
Submitted on 2015/01/17 at 11:27 am

Very interesting, I remember seeing the first few years of this list some years ago on BP but have often wondered how it all panned out. You mention that Stanky is the lowest rated player in your Hall @ 311. Out of curiosity, who are the 10 lowest rated players who are in the actual Hall? If that list includes mostly oldtimers, can you also give the half dozen or so lowest rated players who have played since 1960? Thanks.

10 lowest rated players in real Hall:
George Kell 204
Lloyd Waner 191
Earle Combs 188
Chick Hafey 187
Jesse Haines 187
Edd Roush 186
Rick Ferrell 183
Heinie Manush 168
Ross Youngs 167
Tommy McCarthy 156

Lowest post-1960:
Lou Brock 229
Jim Rice 273
Bruce Sutter 277
Dave Winfield 289
Luis Aparicio 291
Billy Williams 291
Hoyt Wilhelm 302
Harmon Killebrew 304
Tony Perez 309
Rollie Fingers 313

 

The official Hall balloting will be announced in two days, and I only have two names on my inductee list for this year: Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez.

Of course, two names for me is by definition. I set up my own Hal of Fame rather diferently from the official Hall or from the way other listers (notably Jay Jaffe) do it.

Most objective Hall guides rely on comparing players to those who are already in the Hall of Fame. Mine does not. The only way it uses the existing Hall was to establish how many Hall of Fame players there should be. It turns out that if you look at the number of players in the Hall for their major league performance – not counting managers, executives, pioneers, or even the Negro League players – then you will find that there is roughly one Hall of Fame player for every 12 or so major league teams.

My own Hall starts with 1936, same as the real Hall. At that time, I show there should have been space for 72 players. For the first 5 years, I let my Hall add 5 players a year. I let it drop to 4 players ayear, and then to three players. Up until 1960, I consider any player who had been retired for five years; starting then, I pick up the idea of the 5/20 window – retired for 5 years, but not more than 20, in order to be considered.

At that point, the highest rated players available to fill the open spots are chosen.

In the current setup, with 30 teams in the majors, it means that my Hall is going to add 2.5 players per year, so I alternate between classes of 2 and 3. Last year (2014) was a three year class; this year, 2015, is just a two. I have the Hall rated for 224 players; there are currently 222 in. And, as I already said, my two for this year are Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. They are the two highest-rated players available who are not already in my Hall.

Which raises the question – how are the players rated? I use what I call my “MVP career” method, which is a contrived way of saying it is a weighted average of all of the seasons of a player’s career. The idea is borrowed from the way the MVP ballot works for a given season – where your first place votes count for 14 points, second place for 9, third for 8, and so on down to tenth place an 1 point. In my system, a player’s best season, as measured by WARP3, counts 14 times (gets a weight of 14, gets multiplied by 14, whatever). The second best season counts 9 times, third best counts eight times, and so on. The tenth best season – as well as all seasons beyond the tenth – count once.

The effect is that it rewards both peak ability and career length. A long career without a high peak, like, say, Harold Baines – that won’t make this Hall. A short sharp peak without length – Jack Chesbro, Norm Cash – won’t do it either.

The very best score ever, by this method, is 749 points, run up by Walter Johnson. Babe Ruth is right there with him, with 742. Because of the way I let the selection process travel in time – just picking the best available for that time – the standard for Hall entry varies. The lowest rated player in my Hall is Eddie Stanky, whose 311 score was enough to make the 1968 list. In recent years, it has generally taken a 400 score to be one of the top available players. Johnson and Martinez score at 520 and 507; they are easy picks. John Smoltz is at 411, and it is not clear when he will get in; he won’t make any of the 2016-19 picks, which are largely set. I’m thinkg 2021, depending on exactly when some currently active players retire. The 2018 list (which shows Johan Santana) and 2019 (Alex Rodriguez) could change if those guys play in 2015. Schilling is a point behind him, at 410.

Of course, if I had a real Hall of Fame ballot, I’d have to account for the fact that there are nine players on it who I have already put into my Hall of Fame. And, for that matter, that there are four more players on it who will make my Hall of Fame in the next four years. If I’m going to use all 10 slots, my rankings go like this:

    Player             MVP score  OverallRank   PositionRank
 1. Barry Bonds           721          3           1 - LF        (My Hall, 2013)
 2. Roger Clemens         628          5           2 - SP           2013
 3. Randy Johnson         520         28          10 - SP           2015
 4. Pedro Martinez        507         34          13 - SP           2015
 5. Jeff Kent             444         67           9 - 2B           2014
 6. Alan Trammell         443         68          10 - SS           2002
 7. Sammy Sosa            443         69           5 - RF           2016
 8. Jeff Bagwell          439         73           8 - 1B           2011
 9. Mark McGwire          428         83          10 - 1B           2007
10. Craig Biggio          426         87          11 - 2B           2016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Mike Mussina          426         88          27 - SP           2017
12. Mike Piazza           414        108           3 - C            2018
13. John Smoltz           411        115          39 - SP           2021?
14. Curt Schilling        410        119          40 - SP
15. Tim Raines            408        121           8 - LF           2008
16. Nomar Garciaparra     407        123          15 - SS           2009
17. Edgar Martinez        404        127           1 - DH           2002
18. Gary Sheffield        401        132          10 - RF
19. Brian Giles           355        224          17 - LF
20. Carlos Delgado        338        273          26 - 1B
21. Larry Walker          337        279          24 - RF
22. Don Mattingly         330        295          29 - 1B
23. Fred McGriff          312        368          36 - 1B
24. Lee Smith             294        459           9 - RP
25. Jason Schmidt         265        690         265 - SP
26. Tom Gordon            256        677         256 - SP
27. Cliff Floyd           234        820          61 - LF
28. Rich Aurilia          214        997          84 - SS
29. Jermaine Dye          208       1054          82 - RF
30. Darin Erstad          201       1142          75 - CF
31. Troy Percival         191       1250          63 - RP
32. Aaron Boone           159       1660         112 - 3B
33. Eddie Guardado        157       1678          90 - RP
34. Tony Clark            120       2332         149 - 1B

My full Hall list:

johnswa01 WALTER JOHNSON            1936 SP   748.9
alexape01 PETE ALEXANDER            1936 SP   625.1
wagneho01 HONUS WAGNER              1936 SS   593.2
mathech01 CHRISTY MATHEWSON         1936 SP   583.2
cobbty01  TY COBB                   1936 CF   565.4
Runners-up 1936  walshed01 lajoina01 barnero01 collied01 speaktr01
walshed01 ED WALSH                  1937 SP   555.9
lajoina01 NAP LAJOIE                1937 SB   552.2
barnero01 ROSS BARNES               1937 SB   529.3
collied01 EDDIE COLLINS             1937 SB   528.5
speaktr01 TRIS SPEAKER              1937 CF   513.7
Runners-up 1937  youngcy01 broutda01 connoro01 delahed01 ansonca01
youngcy01 CY YOUNG                  1938 SP   511.2
broutda01 DAN BROUTHERS             1938 FB   509.6
connoro01 ROGER CONNOR              1938 FB   496.3
delahed01 ED DELAHANTY              1938 LF   461.8
ansonca01 CAP ANSON                 1938 FB   459.4
Runners-up 1938  glassja01 kellyki01 dahlebi01 planked01 ewingbu01
glassja01 JACK GLASSCOCK            1939 SS   448.4
kellyki01 KING KELLY                1939 RF   424.9
dahlebi01 BILL DAHLEN               1939 SS   417.6
planked01 EDDIE PLANK               1939 SP   413.2
ewingbu01 BUCK EWING                1939 C    412.0
Runners-up 1939  flickel01 hamilbi01 whitede01 jacksjo01 davisge01
flickel01 ELMER FLICK               1940 RF   410.4
hamilbi01 BILLY HAMILTON            1940 CF   406.2
whitede01 DEACON WHITE              1940 C    406.2
jacksjo01 JOE JACKSON               1940 RF   396.7
davisge01 GEORGE DAVIS              1940 SS   395.4
Runners-up 1940  wadderu01 jennihu01 rusieam01 mcgrajo01 seweljo01
ruthba01  BABE RUTH                 1941 RF   742.3
vanceda01 DAZZY VANCE               1941 SP   420.7
wadderu01 RUBE WADDELL              1941 SP   390.5
jennihu01 HUGHIE JENNINGS           1941 SS   390.4
Runners-up 1941  rusieam01 mcgrajo01 seweljo01 ruckena01 clarkjo01
rusieam01 AMOS RUSIE                1942 SP   389.4
mcgrajo01 JOHN MCGRAW               1942 TB   387.4
seweljo01 JOE SEWELL                1942 SS   385.3
ruckena01 NAP RUCKER                1942 SP   384.3
Runners-up 1942  clarkjo01 cicoted01 jackstr01 brownth01 childcu01
hornsro01 ROGERS HORNSBY            1943 SB   563.2
friscfr01 FRANKIE FRISCH            1943 SB   403.6
clarkjo01 JOHN CLARKSON             1943 SP   383.0
cicoted01 EDDIE CICOTTE             1943 SP   382.5
Runners-up 1943  jackstr01 brownth01 childcu01 wallabo01 bennech01
jackstr01 TRAVIS JACKSON            1944 SS   378.4
brownth01 THREE_FINGER BROWN        1944 SP   375.3
childcu01 CUPID CHILDS              1944 SB   374.5
wallabo01 BOBBY WALLACE             1944 SS   372.5
Runners-up 1944  bennech01 covelst01 dunlafr01 willine01 cochrmi01
gehrilo01 LOU GEHRIG                1945 FB   559.6
bennech01 CHARLIE BENNETT           1945 C    368.1
covelst01 STAN COVELESKI            1945 SP   368.1
dunlafr01 FRED DUNLAP               1945 SB   367.0
Runners-up 1945  willine01 cochrmi01 thompsa01 wrighge01 terrybi01
willine01 NED WILLIAMSON            1946 TB   366.6
cochrmi01 MICKEY COCHRANE           1946 C    364.3
thompsa01 SAM THOMPSON              1946 RF   363.9
wrighge01 GEORGE WRIGHT             1946 SS   363.3
Runners-up 1946  terrybi01 whitnji01 chancfr01 bancrda01 keelewi01
grovele01 LEFTY GROVE               1947 SP   428.3
hartnga01 GABBY HARTNETT            1947 C    384.6
ferrewe01 WES FERRELL               1947 SP   371.5
terrybi01 BILL TERRY                1947 FB   363.1
Runners-up 1947  whitnji01 chancfr01 bancrda01 keelewi01 richaha01
gehrich01 CHARLIE GEHRINGER         1948 SB   451.6
whitnji01 JIM WHITNEY               1948 SP   362.8
chancfr01 FRANK CHANCE              1948 FB   360.5
bancrda01 DAVE BANCROFT             1948 SS   355.8
Runners-up 1948  keelewi01 richaha01 faberre01 whitedo01 colliji01
hubbeca01 CARL HUBBELL              1949 SP   478.4
keelewi01 WILLIE KEELER             1949 RF   354.4
richaha01 HARDY RICHARDSON          1949 SB   354.0
faberre01 RED FABER                 1949 SP   352.3
Runners-up 1949  whitedo01 colliji01 radboch01 jossad01  vaughhi01
whitedo01 DOC WHITE                 1950 SP   352.1
colliji01 JIMMY COLLINS             1950 TB   351.8
simmoal01 AL SIMMONS                1950 LF   349.8
kleinch01 CHUCK KLEIN               1950 RF   346.1
Runners-up 1950  radboch01 jossad01  vaughhi01 longhe01  mcginjo01
foxxji01  JIMMIE FOXX               1951 FB   463.3
cronijo01 JOE CRONIN                1951 SS   451.2
wanerpa01 PAUL WANER                1951 RF   440.9
warnelo01 LON WARNEKE               1951 SP   359.7
Runners-up 1951  radboch01 jossad01  vaughhi01 longhe01  mcginjo01
dickebi01 BILL DICKEY               1952 C    412.5
lyonste01 TED LYONS                 1952 SP   356.1
radboch01 CHARLES RADBOURN          1952 SP   344.7
jossad01  ADDIE JOSS                1952 SP   344.2
Runners-up 1952  vaughhi01 longhe01  mcginjo01 heilmha01 bartedi01
ottme01   MEL OTT                   1953 RF   481.3
hermabi01 BILLY HERMAN              1953 SB   397.0
greenha01 HANK GREENBERG            1953 FB   389.2
deandi01  DIZZY DEAN                1953 SP   378.7
Runners-up 1953  passecl01 ruffire01 vaughhi01 longhe01  mcginjo01
vaughar01 ARKY VAUGHAN              1954 SS   489.2
medwijo01 JOE MEDWICK               1954 LF   414.6
passecl01 CLAUDE PASSEAU            1954 SP   371.7
ruffire01 RED RUFFING               1954 SP   346.4
Runners-up 1954  vaughhi01 longhe01  mcginjo01 heilmha01 bartedi01
vaughhi01 HIPPO VAUGHN              1955 SP   343.6
longhe01  HERMAN LONG               1955 SS   343.3
mcginjo01 JOE MCGINNITY             1955 SP   342.1
heilmha01 HARRY HEILMANN            1955 RF   341.4
Runners-up 1955  bartedi01 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 
gordojo01 JOE GORDON                1956 SB   422.4
applilu01 LUKE APPLING              1956 SS   413.1
waltebu01 BUCKY WALTERS             1956 SP   398.9
Runners-up 1956  bartedi01 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 
dimagjo01 JOE DIMAGGIO              1957 CF   465.8
doerrbo01 BOBBY DOERR               1957 SB   401.4
bartedi01 DICK BARTELL              1957 SS   341.0
Runners-up 1957  carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01  nichoki01
boudrlo01 LOU BOUDREAU              1958 SS   469.3
carutbo01 BOB CARUTHERS             1958 SP   339.1
fletcar01 ART FLETCHER              1958 SS   337.5
Runners-up 1958  sislege01 hackst01  nichoki01 camildo01 wardmo01 
mizejo01  JOHNNY MIZE               1959 FB   427.5
leonadu02 DUTCH LEONARD             1959 SP   357.3
sislege01 GEORGE SISLER             1959 FB   337.3
Runners-up 1959  hackst01  nichoki01 camildo01 wardmo01  griffcl01
hackst01  STAN HACK                 1960 TB   336.7
nichoki01 KID NICHOLS               1960 SP   335.7
camildo01 DOLPH CAMILLI             1960 FB   333.2
Runners-up 1960  wardmo01  griffcl01 johnsbo01 luquedo01 tanneje01
newhoha01 HAL NEWHOUSER             1961 SP   470.3
kinerra01 RALPH KINER               1961 LF   356.6
stephve01 VERN STEPHENS             1961 SS   331.9
Runners-up 1961  johnsbo01 galanau01 gomezle01 freylo01  stanked01
fellebo01 BOB FELLER                1962 SP   502.6
robinja02 JACKIE ROBINSON           1962 SB   433.3
johnsbo01 BOB JOHNSON               1962 LF   326.5
Runners-up 1962  galanau01 gomezle01 freylo01  stanked01 elliobo01
troutdi01 DIZZY TROUT               1963 SP   368.8
camparo01 ROY CAMPANELLA            1963 C    353.3
galanau01 AUGIE GALAN               1963 LF   322.9
Runners-up 1963  gomezle01 freylo01  stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01
lemonbo01 BOB LEMON                 1964 SP   344.9
Runners-up 1964  reesepe01 gomezle01 freylo01  stanked01 elliobo01
reesepe01 PEE_WEE REESE             1965 SS   337.2
slaugen01 ENOS SLAUGHTER            1965 RF   316.9
Runners-up 1965  freylo01  stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01
willite01 TED WILLIAMS              1966 LF   578.2
freylo01  LONNY FREY                1966 SB   311.6
Runners-up 1966  stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01
garvene01 NED GARVER                1967 SP   319.4
Runners-up 1967  stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01
ashburi01 RICHIE ASHBURN            1968 CF   436.4
stanked01 EDDIE STANKY              1968 SB   311.4
Runners-up 1968  elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 rosenal01
musiast01 STAN MUSIAL               1969 LF   556.5
wynnea01  EARLY WYNN                1969 SP   345.8
Runners-up 1969  hodgegi01 schoere01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01
piercbi02 BILLY PIERCE              1970 SP   339.5
hodgegi01 GIL HODGES                1970 FB   330.2
Runners-up 1970  schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01
spahnwa01 WARREN SPAHN              1971 SP   524.7
berrayo01 YOGI BERRA                1971 C    367.3
Runners-up 1971  foxne01   schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01
roberro01 ROBIN ROBERTS             1972 SP   472.4
koufasa01 SANDY KOUFAX              1972 SP   463.7
Runners-up 1972  frienbo01 foxne01   schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01
frienbo01 BOB FRIEND                1973 SP   347.1
foxne01   NELLIE FOX                1973 SB   338.2
Runners-up 1973  fordwh01  schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01
matheed01 EDDIE MATHEWS             1974 TB   483.5
mantlmi01 MICKEY MANTLE             1974 CF   468.3
Runners-up 1974  fordwh01  schoere01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01
drysddo01 DON DRYSDALE              1975 SP   435.5
boyerke01 KEN BOYER                 1975 TB   361.5
Runners-up 1975  fordwh01  schoere01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01
fordwh01  WHITEY FORD               1976 SP   328.2
schoere01 RED SCHOENDIENST          1976 SB   325.3
Runners-up 1976  colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 rosenal01 antonjo02
bankser01 ERNIE BANKS               1977 SS   448.3
bunniji01 JIM BUNNING               1977 SP   420.0
Runners-up 1977  pascuca02 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 rosenal01
clemero01 ROBERTO CLEMENTE          1978 RF   370.3
pascuca02 CAMILO PASCUAL            1978 SP   341.1
Runners-up 1978  mazerbi01 willsma01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01
mayswi01  WILLIE MAYS               1979 CF   646.3
mazerbi01 BILL MAZEROSKI            1979 SB   323.5
willsma01 MAURY WILLS               1979 SS   319.1
Runners-up 1979  colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 antonjo02 wilheho01
santoro01 RON SANTO                 1980 TB   481.6
kalinal01 AL KALINE                 1980 RF   397.5
Runners-up 1980  cepedor01 colavro01 cashno01  snidedu01 jacksla01
gibsobo01 BOB GIBSON                1981 SP   532.6
maricju01 JUAN MARICHAL             1981 SP   450.7
Runners-up 1981  cepedor01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01  snidedu01
aaronha01 HANK AARON                1982 RF   526.9
robinfr02 FRANK ROBINSON            1982 RF   501.1
Runners-up 1982  cepedor01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01  snidedu01
allendi01 DICK ALLEN                1983 TB   407.0
wynnji01  JIM WYNN                  1983 CF   380.9
Runners-up 1983  robinbr01 cepedor01 torrejo01 osteecl01 colavro01
woodwi01  WILBUR WOOD               1984 SP   378.1
robinbr01 BROOKS ROBINSON           1984 TB   347.9
Runners-up 1984  cepedor01 torrejo01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 
cepedor01 ORLANDO CEPEDA            1985 FB   346.5
torrejo01 JOE TORRE                 1985 C    330.9
hunteca01 CATFISH HUNTER            1985 SP   322.5
Runners-up 1985  osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01  fregoji01 snidedu01
mccovwi01 WILLIE MCCOVEY            1986 FB   413.2
osteecl01 CLAUDE OSTEEN             1986 SP   317.3
Runners-up 1986  colavro01 cashno01  fregoji01 jacksla01 stottme01
bondsbo01 BOBBY BONDS               1987 RF   339.4
colavro01 ROCKY COLAVITO            1987 RF   315.7
Runners-up 1987  cashno01  fregoji01 jacksla01 stottme01 lolicmi01
tiantlu01 LUIS TIANT                1988 SP   368.0
smithre06 REGGIE SMITH              1988 RF   322.4
Runners-up 1988  belanma01 stargwi01 cashno01  fregoji01 jacksla01
benchjo01 JOHNNY BENCH              1989 C    468.5
perryga01 GAYLORD PERRY             1989 SP   458.5
Runners-up 1989  jenkife01 yastrca01 campabe01 matlajo01 belanma01
morgajo02 JOE MORGAN                1990 SB   538.3
jenkife01 FERGIE JENKINS            1990 SP   423.8
Runners-up 1990  yastrca01 palmeji01 campabe01 matlajo01 belanma01
yastrca01 CARL YASTRZEMSKI          1991 LF   420.1
palmeji01 JIM PALMER                1991 SP   416.2
carewro01 ROD CAREW                 1991 SB   388.0
Runners-up 1991  campabe01 koosmje01 matlajo01 belanma01 stargwi01
seaveto01 TOM SEAVER                1992 SP   530.9
grichbo01 BOBBY GRICH               1992 SB   471.3
Runners-up 1992  rosepe01  campabe01 fostege01 bluevi01  koosmje01
niekrph01 PHIL NIEKRO               1993 SP   420.1
rosepe01  PETE ROSE                 1993 LF   399.3
Runners-up 1993  campabe01 fostege01 bluevi01  jacksre01 ceyro01  
carltst01 STEVE CARLTON             1994 SP   517.4
campabe01 BERT CAMPANERIS           1994 SS   370.9
Runners-up 1994  fostege01 bluevi01  conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01
schmimi01 MIKE SCHMIDT              1995 TB   550.8
fostege01 GEORGE FOSTER             1995 LF   367.3
evansda01 DARRELL EVANS             1995 TB   364.6
Runners-up 1995  bluevi01  conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01
hernake01 KEITH HERNANDEZ           1996 FB   410.6
bluevi01  VIDA BLUE                 1996 SP   361.1
Runners-up 1996  conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 ceyro01  
reuscri01 RICK REUSCHEL             1997 SP   363.6
conceda01 DAVE CONCEPCION           1997 SS   360.8
Runners-up 1997  evansdw01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 templga01
cartega01 GARY CARTER               1998 C    442.7
blylebe01 BERT BLYLEVEN             1998 SP   436.9
evansdw01 DWIGHT EVANS              1998 RF   358.6
Runners-up 1998  suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 templga01 guerrpe01
yountro01 ROBIN YOUNT               1999 SS   427.0
brettge01 GEORGE BRETT              1999 TB   425.4
Runners-up 1999  ryanno01  tananfr01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01
ryanno01  NOLAN RYAN                2000 SP   424.2
tananfr01 FRANK TANANA              2000 SP   375.7
suttodo01 DON SUTTON                2000 SP   350.8
Runners-up 2000  guidrro01 jacksre01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01
guidrro01 RON GUIDRY                2001 SP   347.9
jacksre01 REGGIE JACKSON            2001 RF   345.9
Runners-up 2001  whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 randowi01
smithoz01 OZZIE SMITH               2002 SS   469.7
trammal01 ALAN TRAMMELL             2002 SS   443.3
dawsoan01 ANDRE DAWSON              2002 CF   396.3
Runners-up 2002  violafr01 dykstle01 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01
sandbry01 RYNE SANDBERG             2003 SB   455.9
violafr01 FRANK VIOLA               2003 SP   385.7
Runners-up 2003  dykstle01 murraed02 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01
dykstle01 LENNY DYKSTRA             2004 CF   382.0
eckerde01 DENNIS ECKERSLEY          2004 SP   379.5
molitpa01 PAUL MOLITOR              2004 TB   369.5
Runners-up 2004  murraed02 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01
boggswa01 WADE BOGGS                2005 TB   438.5
murraed02 EDDIE MURRAY              2005 FB   355.0
Runners-up 2005  whitalo01 langsma01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01
hershor01 OREL HERSHISER            2006 SP   420.8
clarkwi02 WILL CLARK                2006 FB   411.1
goodedw01 DWIGHT GOODEN             2006 SP   406.7
Runners-up 2006  belleal01 whitalo01 langsma01 gossari01 templga01
ripkeca01 CAL RIPKEN                2007 SS   562.1
mcgwima01 MARK MCGWIRE              2007 FB   428.2
Runners-up 2007  gwynnto01 saberbr01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01
gwynnto01 TONY GWYNN                2008 RF   426.1
saberbr01 BRET SABERHAGEN           2008 SP   419.6
raineti01 TIM RAINES                2008 LF   407.7
Runners-up 2008  finlech01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 langsma01
henderi01 RICKEY HENDERSON          2009 LF   545.4
bellja01  JAY BELL                  2009 SS   398.0
Runners-up 2009  coneda01  finlech01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01
larkiba01 BARRY LARKIN              2010 SS   442.5
alomaro01 ROBERTO ALOMAR            2010 SB   420.2
martied01 EDGAR MARTINEZ            2010 OT   404.2
Runners-up 2010  coneda01  finlech01 appieke01 belleal01 fernato01
brownke01 KEVIN BROWN               2011 SP   446.0
bagweje01 JEFF BAGWELL              2011 FB   439.0
Runners-up 2011  coneda01  finlech01 olerujo01 appieke01 belleal01
coneda01  DAVID CONE                2012 SP   380.8
finlech01 CHUCK FINLEY              2012 SP   373.9
olerujo01 JOHN OLERUD               2012 FB   373.6
Runners-up 2012  appieke01 belleal01 fernato01 palmera01 whitalo01
bondsba01 BARRY BONDS               2013 LF   720.8
clemero02 ROGER CLEMENS             2013 SP   628.2
Runners-up 2013  sosasa01  biggicr01 piazzmi01 schilcu01 appieke01
maddugr01 GREG MADDUX               2014 SP   577.1
thomafr04 FRANK THOMAS              2014 FB   444.8
kentje01  JEFF KENT                 2014 SB   443.6
Runners-up 2014  sosasa01  biggicr01 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01
johnsra05 RANDY JOHNSON             2015 SP   519.7
martipe02 PEDRO MARTINEZ            2015 SP   507.1
Runners-up 2015  sosasa01  biggicr01 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01
griffke02 KEN GRIFFEY               2016 CF   458.4
sosasa01  SAMMY SOSA                2016 RF   443.2
biggicr01 CRAIG BIGGIO              2016 SB   425.8
Runners-up 2016  mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 smoltjo01 schilcu01
mussimi01 MIKE MUSSINA              2017 SP   425.7
glavito02 TOM GLAVINE               2017 SP   415.3
Runners-up 2017  piazzmi01 smoltjo01 schilcu01 edmonji01 garcino01
rolensc01 SCOTT ROLEN               2018 TB   434.1
santajo01 JOHAN SANTANA             2018 SP   425.7
piazzmi01 MIKE PIAZZA               2018 C    414.3
Runners-up 2018  jonesch06 smoltjo01 schilcu01 edmonji01 garcino01
rodrial01 ALEX RODRIGUEZ            2019 SS   510.1
riverma01 MARIANO RIVERA            2019 RP   471.1
Runners-up 2019  hallaro01 heltoto01 jonesch06 smoltjo01 schilcu01

 

Still very much a work in progress…but as a present to everyone, my first cut on 2015 projections are out.

Wrestling with unbelievable parity in the American League.

 

Kind of upstaged by today’s events, but I uploaded the 2014 Cuban stats to the site this weekend. Check under the “DTs by League” tab, and then change League to Cuban Serie Nacional.

I was working on a longer post to detail the fairly major change I made to the DT procedure for Cubans, but decided I kind of have to go now. So, short form and I’ll try to fill in the details at a later time.

So, first, a general word on the Cuban Serie Nacional, their top level league. The league consists of 16 teams, one for each of the country’s 15 provinces, plus one for the city of Havana. Until a few years it was one for each of the nation’s 14 provinces, plus two for Havana, but then the province of La Habana got split in two. They actually played with 17 teams for one year before axing one of Havana city’s two teams. Players generally play for their home region; there is little movement between teams.

The normal schedule length for the SN is 90 games, which allows for home-and-away three game series against each of the other 15 teams. The season runs roughly early November through March. In years with a World Baseball Classic, they have played just 45, sacrificing half the season to get their best players in front of the world. This past year – by that I mean the 2013/14 season, not the one that is currently being played – they played a 45 games schedule for all 16 teams, and then followed that with another 45 games between just the top 8 teams from the first half. It appears that some level of taking players from the bottom 8 teams was permitted. I’m honestly not sure how to handle the two halves.  The stats listed under the link is just for the first half; the stats for the second half are listed here, under the “CB2″ label. The second half had a slightly higher quality rating than the first half, which is reflected in the translations and part of why I didn’t just want to run them all together.

The quality rating for the league came in at .60, exactly halfway between my ratings for the high A leagues (.551) and AA (.642). The second half, with just the supplemented stronger teams rated as essentially AA (.63). That is stronger than I have rated the league in the past, but backed up by the performances of multiple players.

On the first run of the stats, I used the same DT method as last year, but took a close look at all the Cuban players who played outside of Cuba. For the first time, this included several players from the just-completed Cuban season, as a few Cuban players were allowed to play in Mexico and Japan. I compared the translation I made for their last three seasons in Cuba with those of their first three seasons after Cuba; I ignored players who had less than 200 total PA on either side of the transition; I ignored players who had a three-year or more layoff between their Cuban and American playing days.

I found that I was generally too pessimistic, especially in one particular category

                          EQA        POW      SPD      Krt    Wrt    BABIP

Average of Cuba DT        .226        2        1        -1      -1     -13

Average non-Cuba DT       .246        3        -1        0      -4      -2

The component scores reflect how many runs above or below average a player is based on a particular aspect of his performance. The Power score, for instance, reflects how many runs better than an average player he would be if his power – home runs and some doubles – were the only thing that was different between him and an average player over the course of 600 plate appearances.The SPD score is based on steals, triples, and doubles; the Krt is all about strikout rates; the Wrt is all about walks (and hit by pitch). The BABIP is about singles, and that is where my translations went wildly wrong in many cases. Yoennis Cespedes came to the US with a -17 BABIP , but he’s really been +2.

And it wasn’t simply that the translation program was too harsh – the BABIP numbers just didn’t match up. For the 30 players I tested, the correlations between Cuba BABIP and American BABIP was just .16. By contrast, POW had an .89 correlation, and SPD .77. EQA was at .55. The procedure was just a complete mess on this particular statistic.

I found, with testing, that I could make a much better estimate of the Cuban players’ American BABIP scores by looking at their other (Cuban) statistics. The regression equation that came out was

BABIP = -2 + 1.1*SPD + .30*POW + .49*Wrt + .20*Krt

Take Cespedes, for instance. The average of his last three years in Cuba was for a .244 EQA, and component scores of POW 9, SPD 3, Krt 2, Wrt -2, and BA -17. Apply the function above, and we get a new projected BABIP of +4.

Work that back into the statistics, the new translation for Cespedes looks like

 AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBP  SLG   EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP  
593 136  32   3  24  49 100  93  79   9   2  849 .230 .291 .416  .244  68   9   3   2  -2 -17
593 171  28   3  24  49 100 100  86   9   2  785 .289 .344 .469  .278  88   8   1   2  -2   4
591 165  31   6  27  46 115  96 108  11   7 1202 .280 .335 .491  .278  89  13   2  -2  -2   2  

the first line is the old way of doing the DT, for Cespedes’ 2009-2011 seasons. The second line is the revised way, and the third line is his combined 2012-2014 totals. (All have been adjusted to 650 PA, with the exception of the Outs column). Clearly – a much better fit.

It wasn’t just Cespedes who benefitted. The correlation between projected and actual BABIP improved from .16 to .43. The correlation between projected and actual EQA improved from .55 to .63. It just works better, and I guess I’d have to be crazy not to use it.

 

I’ve rerun all the player cards with a 2015 projection, so you should be able to see indivduals up now.

Not that they won’t change between now and April, as I have any number of things to work through that are not included in this version. As a for instance, the default setting for league offense for 2015 is for the AL and NL to be the same as in 2014.

When I ran the cards for 2014, that default meant that I used the 2013 averages. That wasn’t so bad in the NL – league offense came in at 4.01 runs per 9 innings in 2014, compared to 4.04 in 2013 – but in the AL, offense had a far more substantial drop from 4.31 to 4.15. My forecasts for the majors as a whole was high by almost 500 runs, 2.4%; but about 350 of that came from the AL, against only 150 in the NL.

Stepping back for a historical perspective:

RPG_AL

 

That’s runs per nine innings in the AL on a yearly basis (blue dashed lines) and as a 5-year moving average (solid red line). You’ll note that the 5-year average right now is on a solidly down and linear trend. It has fallen by 13, 9, 9, 9, and 6 points over the last five years. Should that trend continue, then next year’s 5-year average should fall another 9 points to 4.27 – which means that next year’s RPG would need to be about 4.01. The individual year trends also run to about 10 points per year, suggesting a 4.05. Absent some action by the league, it is hard to see the offense not dropping at least a little further next year. I’m thinking that something like 4.08 is a better forecast would be a better forecast than the 4.15 I would use by default.

 

Same deal in the NL:

RPG_NL

Next year the last 4.40 RPG will scroll off the 5-year average, which is going to depress it even without further drops in the one-year average. Repeating last year’s 4.01 will cut the 5-yr  average by another 7 points, to 4.11. Continuing the 10-point per year trend line would mean a one-year forecast of 3.87. You’ll note that the NL has operated with an apparent floor of about 3.8 runs, that only the 1968 season has penetrated since the dead ball era, so we are approaching the offensive levels at which the league has historically stepped in to make changes. I’m not as certain that the NL will decline further (as compared to the AL), so I think I will just let last year’s average roll forward.

 

Kind of a nice thing to read. My pre-season projections seem to have topped the field, at least in terms of root-mean-squared-error.

Tango

 

A year go at this time, I was recuperating from brain surgery. And I had the idea that, for the anniversary of Jackie Robinson’s first major league game, I would run the translation process for Jackie Robinson’s 1946 season.

As it happened, I didn’t get home from the hospital unti April 12, which (combined with my fatigue level) meant I didn’t get a post ready by April 15. I did get it together shortly thereafter…can’t really remember now, but it was maybe a wek later.

But I didn’t post it. What would be better, I thought, was not just Jackie in isolation, but the whole International League for 1946.

And a little while later I had that, with a little help from the stats posted at baseball-reference.com. But I still didn’t post. Even better, I said to myself, would be the whole AAA for 1946, to be able to place Jackie in a reasonable prospect position. Sure I hadn’t planned on it, but after seeing what they had at b-ref I thought it would be pretty easy.

And it was. Still a little later on, I had the IL, PCL, and AA for 1946 all drawn up. It was nowhere close to Robinson’s debut date anymore, and I wasn’t coming up with any hook to wrap around it for a good post. So instead of posting anything, I just kept going, working my way through the AAA of 1947. And 1948. And so on.

By then we were through with the entire baseball season, and I still hadn’t posted anything about it. I had completed doing all the AAA teams, right up to 1980 where I had everything, and then started on b-ref’s list of Japanese teams.

So now, a year later, my head’s healed, and its another Jackie Robinson Day, and if I haven’t buried the lead enough already, and I’ve got translations for all AAA teams and players going back to 1946 posted on the site. And the Japanese Central and Pacific Leagues, along with all of their players, are translated back to those league’s debut in 1950. The links will be found under the “DTs by League” tab. The link for the league that started it all is here:

http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/1946/1946pageINTyearALL.shtml

In addition, the DTs links for all players should reflect their AAA stats.

There’s still some work to do with them. I still haven’t finished getting all of the fielding stats added, so lots of players are listed at the position “DH” – that’s the default when no fielding data is found. The park and difficulty factors are not as complete as they are for recent years…nature of the beast, I’m afraid. And there is, of course, no split data for minor league seasons before 2005.

Year Team         Lge  AB  H   DB  TP  HR  BB  SO  R  RBI  SB  CS  Out  BA   OBP  SLG   EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP
1946 Montreal____ Int 470 137  33   5   3  67  42  90  52  33  11  349 .291 .392 .402  .284  75 -14  10  18   6   4 
1947 Brooklyn____ NL  600 168  37   3  16  68  54 134  50  39   0  445 .280 .372 .432  .289 100  -2  14  17   2  -4 

Robinson’s 1946 DT shows a clearly above average hitter, one with excellent contact skills and outstanding speed. He has a bigtime number of doubles – interestingly enough, his minor league double count would be 42 when projected to the same 600 AB as his 1947 major league line – but a distinct lack of home runs. With the exception of the home runs, his lines are extremely close (and his 1948 would be equally similar).

 

Not quite two weeks into the season, and already a number of expected starters have dropped off the radar for the season.

Players who changed teams: Eduardo Nunez from NYY to MIN, the Mariners lose Carlos Triunfel to the Dodgers, Mike Fontenot goes from the Nationals to the Rays, the Cubs release Mitch Maier, the Brewers release Joe Thurston, Henry Blanco retires from the Diamondbacks, and the Giants waive Roger Kieschnick and the Diamondbacks pick him up; Nunez was the only one of the group I expected to have more than token playing time.

Among pitchers, Pedro Beato goes from the Reds to the Braves, Michael Brady travels from Miami to Anaheim, Prestonm Guilmet is traded from Cleveland to Baltimore, and Brian Omogrosso was released by the White Sox. I don’t think any of the pitchers were projected for more than 20 innings.

Other adjustments:
Braves: Dan Uggla’s .146 EQA has me raising the chances of him being replaced, by either Pastornicky or La Stella; BJ Upton’s .125 won’t hold off Logan Schafer. Ian Thomas, Gus Schlosser, and Pedro Beato pick up bullpen garbage time. The Marlins have to deal with Jacob Turner’ shoulder injury…I’ve taken 10 starts off him for now, but its still TBD how much time he’ll miss. The Mets had a more drastic shakeup of the pitching staff. With Parnell out, Valverde takes over as closer, and Torres moves to a setup slot that pretty much removes him from starter contention. It also looks like Duda has moved ahead of Davis in the first base race. Nothing changed for the Phillies except a little shaking out of the back end of the bullpen. The Nationals lose a month of Wilson Ramos; it also looks like Ryan Zimmerman will get time at 1B, which likely works out to plus time for Danny Espinosa.

Orioles: Small changes. Boosted Delmon Young at Nolan Reimold’s expense, raised the innings for guys currently in the pen like Britton, Stinson, and Meek; took Suk-min Yoon out of starter contention down the line after a disastrous first start in Norfolk. For Boston, The injuries to Middlebrooks and Victorino don’t really change their projections, but Bradley’s early hitting raises his future – that comes off my projections for Nava, Gomes, and Carp. Ryan Roberts slots in as a 3B backup. For the Yankees Yangervis Solarte soaks up most of the PA I’d given to Nunez. Scott Sizemore is off to a hot start, which could push out one of Brian Roberts or Kelly Johnson. No big changes for the Jays, while in Tampa Matt Moore’s injury really shakes up the rotation. I’ll bring in Erik Bedard for a dozen starts, add Cesar Ramos for a few, enhance Matt Andriese and Nate Karns, and shore up Jake Odorizzi’s job security.

White Sox: Avisail Garcia’s shoulder injury forces the Sox into the outfield I’d have started with (never been a Garcia fan). The forecasts for all of them were a little muddy, with four fairly equal players for three spots; Jordan Danks is less likely to force any of Eaton/Viciedo/De Aza out of a job. I guessed wrong about Nate Jones getting the closer job out of camp, so there’s a pretty strong bullpen shuffle there. Lindstrom’s not clearly better than any of Downs, Webb, or Jones, but the guy who has the job now has a clear advantage for playing time over any contender. No substantive changes for the Indians. The Carlos Santana experiment has lasted this long, so it gets a little bump up. Twins: Scaled back Buxton’s arrival, as his wrist injury isn’t healing rapidly…plus, its a wrist injury. Terrible ting for a ballplayer. Switched Chris Colabello in for things that were Parmelee. For the Tigers, the only thing I’ve got is some worry about Joe Nathan. I don’t have even that much to change for the Royals.

The A’s needed a lot of work, led by the demotion of Jim Johnson from closer. He could straighten himself out and regain the role, so he retains a share of the saves, but only as part of an even spread. The first base/DH spot is breaking a little differently than I envisioned, although more Callaspo/less Barton is a pretty good call for the team. In LA, the Angels will be without Josh Hamilton for a quarter of the season after he hurt his thumb sliding head-first into first. That should mean a lot more JB Shuck, as well as more Cowbell…er, excuse me, Cowgill…thrown in as well. I also did a little reshuffling in the bullpen, with Burnett being slow to return and Brian Moran lost for the season. The Rangers’ rotation remains an injury-riddled mess, with Scott Baker added as another option. With the Mariners, I shorted Logan Morrison a bit, as we get to see how the OF/1B/DH shuffle arranges itself. Nothing has changed yet for the Astros.

Arizona is already starting to question their starting pitching choices in the wake of Patrick Corbin’s injury, as Randall Delgado will move to relief while Josh Collmenter gets another shot at starting. Archie Bradley will be up there sooner or later. The Dodgers were pretty much set – though I did change second base from “Leans Dee Gordon” to “Safe Dee Gordon”. For the Giants, I enhanced Michael Morse as a clearer LF starter. With the Padres, I didn’t even have that. All I’ve got for the Rockies is to clarify Charlie Blackmon as the primary center fielder.

Chicago’s Cubs are another team getting into the closer shuffle, as Jose Veras is demoted. I also have to go stronger on Emilio Bonifacio than I wanted to. The Cardinals are still just as set as they were coming in – I’m just amazed at how much minor league talent they still have in the wings. With the Brewers, Henderson loses the closer fight with Francisco Rodriguez, among many changes in their bullpen from my forecast. For Cincinnati, I’m getting extremely worried about Mat Latos’ condition, so he gets a big drop in starts. On the plus side, Aroldis Chapman seems to be coming along on the short side of initial estimates, so his PT actually egts raised a bit. The biggest change I made for the Pirates is to bump up Gregory Polanco’s time, because the way he’s hammering AAA they won’t be able to keep him down much longer.

 

Hello everybody. Peabody here.

Shame I can’t earn any endorsements for the upcoming movie, because I can so do that voice. At least the original one, and when I’m not cold-ridden like I’ve been this weekend, pretty much confining myself to the room with the wood stove.

So I have looked back at the projections I released two weeks ago, and I did find one major mistake. Yes,there was much criticism of my methods being extremely conservative and not deviating very far from average – criticism which I didn’t necessarily take at full value, because, well, it is generally true. The methods, and the decisions leading to those methods – things like forcing the league totals to conform to last season’s league totals – force the system into a conservative mode. My default assumption is that there was nothing out of the ordinary.

But when I ran followup tests, like the average error of forecast components from the last few years – I found that I was going seriously astray. The process was something like this:

a) run analysis of the player’s performance over the last three years to set a baseline of expected performance. That is essentially just a weighted average of the last 3 seasons, with weights that vary by stat – some are more sensitive to just the most recent season, some to the entire three-year average, and some have little predictability at all.
b) compare that baseline performance with the baselines of players from baseball history. try to see if there is a consistent deviation from those baselines that can be applied to the current player.

Now, the weights in step A could be something like .523, .233, .150, which are for the hitter’s strikeout component. You’ll notice that they only add up to .896. That difference between the sum opf the components and 1 is a measure, a recognition, of regression to the mean – partiuclarly since my components are zero-based to league average. For a highly predictive statistic like batter K, the sum is close to 1. For hitter batting average, the sum is only .620; for pitcher delta-runs, it is barely 0.2.

The second step goes something like Baseline+delta*x, where delta is the difference between comparison players and their baselines, and x is an indicator of how useful those adjustments are. They go as high as 1, for speed and power, and are pretty near zero for things like those pitcher delta-runs.

The trouble is that I calculated the x component in a way that repeated the regression to the mean, essentially (baseline+delta)*x. The RTM was being double counted.

For an average player, the difference was essentially meaningless. But the more extreme they were, in any facet that I measured, then the bigger the effect. So Mike Trout, above average across the board, went from

                  BA   OBA  SLG   EQA EQR  WARP cPOW cSPD cSO cBB cBA  
Mike Trout     0.302 0.386 0.510 .316 110  7.3   11    4    0   5  12  
               0.306 0.406 0.530 .332 123  8.9   12    7   -1   8  15 

(these are from the ‘all hitters’ section, straight from the computer, without regressing to league norms; the numbers on the projection pages will be a little lower).

Speed was dramatically affected, in part because the most extreme players are so much farther from the average. Trout went from 26 SB to 40; Billy Hamilton went from 43 to 72. His power dropped from a -9 component before to -11 now (sometimes the R-T-M works in your favor). Miguel Cabrera went from 30 HR to 36.

Fortunately, the pitchers weren’t similarly affected; the double-counting coding error didn’t happen in that directory. I did take advantage of my analysis to updte the weights, which made for some differences. And the overdone regression to means had infected the fielding analysis as well, so that teams with good fielding weren’t getting enough credit for it, which did feed back on the pitcher ratings.

The effect on teams was dependent on having extreme players. Those that did, benefitted by perhaps a win, maybe two. It did let a little more spread into the standings, with peak wins inching up from 91 to 93 and min wins dropping from 67 to to 66.

So a quick look at the changes on the team level since 1/24, not all of which come from my code changes:

AL East: was TB 90 Bos 86 NY 85 Tor 78 Bal 77
         now    90     89    86     79     81

The Orioles’ gain is mostly from me jumping the gun and sending A.J. Burnett their way, as he represents a big upgrade over their assorted fifth starter contenders. There was also a component for opponent quality that wasn’t kicking in – while the teams in the AL East were being judged harshly because of their ferocious schedule (playing other AL East teams), they weren’t receiving the compensating break – that their record isn’t an unbiased assessment of quality when they are NOT playing in the AL East.

AL Central: was DET 91 Cle 85 CWS 79 KC 77 Min 72
                Det 89     82     78    77     71

And that quality change I just spoke kicks the AL Central in the teeth. Kansas City does well to stand pat with their 77-win forecast – the addition of Bruce Chen helps a little – while everyone else drops 1-3 games.

AL West: was OAK 88 TEX 87 LAA 84 Sea 83 Hou 70
         now     91     85     86     81     67

Fixing the RTMs hurt Houston. Seattle was especially hurt by the changes in fielding, as they will have a lot of positional uncertainty – even the presumptive addition of an overrated Nelson Cruz doesn’t save them from a drop. Hosuton was also hurt by that, but Oakland did just fine. Trout alone benefitted by 15 runs from fixing the RTM error, and the Angels gained two games.

NL East: was WAS 87 ATL 85 NY 78 Mia 75 PHI 72
         now     88     84    77     73     73

The Nationals gain a game on the Braves, based on the changes I made, because I don’t believe there’s been any player movement outside the bullpens.

NL Central: was STL 90 PIT 83 CIN 80 MIL 77 CHC 67
            now     93     83     78     80     66

The Brewers added Matt Garza and Francisco Rodriguez, both pretty nice pickups, and Mark Reynolds makes their first base situation a little less desperate…but I am surprised at how they’ve switched places with the Reds. I promise, I’m not making any deliberate moves to hold the Reds back, but they keep on slipping.

NL West: was LA 88 SF 85 SD 83 Ari 78 Col 71
                89    85    81     78     72

Not much change here, with the most notable one being the Padres’ loss of Luebke for the season. I don’t see Arroyo doing much but adding depth – he’s no better than the mostly Randall Delgado innings he replaces – and ditto for Maholm and the Dodgers.

 
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