First things first – I now have the way too soon, already out of date, Team Projections for 2021 up and available.

Of course, posting them on the day of the non-tender deadline means most teams have at least one player in my projection that is already compromised. And of course, teams have yet to fill the gaping holes (like the Nationals 1B slot) that you know will be taken by some current free agent. Still, its nice to have a snapshot of where the team stood when they started making decisions about 2021.

generated on 12- 2-2020, projections for 2021 season

One thing I am pretty certain about – not just for me, but everybody else doing projections, from BP to FanGraphs to ESPN, Rotowire, Rotoworld, and every other fantasy site – projections are going to be worse in 2021 than in prior years. Having a 2020 season that was only 60 games – and even then, only for the majors – every player is coming off of what we would, previously, have labelled a missed or truncated season. Our sample sizes are smaller than ever.

To balance that, I tried something I never did before. The “2020” season that is going through the program, combining with 2019 and 2018 stats to make a 2021 projections, is a blend of whatever the player really did in 2020 with the projection I made going in to 2020. For every minor leaguer, who had no 2020 season at all (or at least nothing with public statistics!), there is nothing to blend – the 2020 projection is their entire line.

I can’t say I’m enthused with the results, but testing says it was a lot better than going with zero seasons or taking 2020 results at full face value.

Welcome to anyone who might be checking in on me for the first time. Or for the first time in a long time. Either way is good for me.

As you can plainly see, I don’t write that often. At heart, I am a number-cruncher, not a wordsmith, and this site is about the numbers that are behind the tabs, not the words I use to highlight or stretch those numbers. And that in turn is because I am not thinking of this as a public site; it is really a vessel for me to have a lot of this work available, to me,  when I am not sitting at my own desk.

So a quick guide to whats on here…

The EQA Report tab is for the major leagues, only. I have tables for all major league seasons, back to 1871, which update every day in season. The centerpiece of these tables is a statistic I called Equivalent Average, which measures a players total offensive value and scales it to the historical range of batting average. Not because batting average is superior in any way – it certainly is not – but because baseball fans, at least of my generation, have an immediate grasp of the scale.

Next up is the Playoff Chances tab. This is the output of a million-run Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season – at this point, the entire season.  My version has a wider spread than similar charts run by other sites; I believe they are too settled on their valuation of (say, the Yankees) as a “.600 team”.  I use some tricks to build a distribution of values for the Yankees. In most runs, they are a .600. But in some runs they’re a .650 team; in others, and more, because it is easier for things to go wrong than right, they only get treated as  a .550 team. That’s how the chances for even the Orioles, while miniscule, are not zero.

Then is DTs By League. These are statistics for minor league players, organized by league. There are three flavors to these pages. The first flavor is the real stats  – completely unadjusted. The second flavor is the DT – the Davenport Translation, originally developed in the late 80s – which estimates what that the real statistical line is worth, right now, in major league terms. The third flavor – peak DT – builds on the second flavor but adds “normal” improvement with age. For the US minor leagues, I have these stats going back to 1979. Triple-A leagues go back to 1946. Japanese leagues go into the 1930s. Other foreign, winter, and independent leagues are randomly available.

DTS by Organization are probably the pages I myself look at most often during the season. It is only going to have players for the current season, arranged by major league team, with all of their minor league affiliates listed with them.

The Projected Standings is where projected statistics, for team and players, resides. The projections have two flavors to them. One is the straight out of the computer numbers; the other is the result of loading those numbers into a very large spreadsheet, manually assigning playing time to everyone, and then rebalancing the numbers so that the hitting and pitching totals are consistent. Those manual adjustments are a real chore, and difficult for me to maintain through the season.

The last tab is the Spring Stats, which is going to start populating Any Day Now. While they are generally of limited predictive value, they certainly do affect who actually makes it out of spring training. There is also a second tab in there, for Current Team DTs, which has three entries per team – all of the team’s hitters (“.2020dt”), all of their pitchers (“.2020pdt”), and a depth chart (“.2020orgdt”) culled from the computer-only projections.

Japanese stats are for 2019 are up, Central League and Pacific.

The difficulty rating for the leagues are between the values for our AA and AAA leagues – perhaps a little closer to AA, but definitely in between.

Parks in the JPL tend to be pretty neutral overall. They all have a three-year average between 956 (Chiba) and 1039 (Seibu). Rakuten was an unusually strong pitchers park this year.

2019 CHB Chiba_Lotte_     961 956 JPL
2019 FKU SoftBank____   1018 999 JPL
2019 NIP Hokkaido_NH_ 1002 994 JPL
2019 ORX Orix________     990 992 JPL
2019 RAK Rakuten_____    925 972 JPL
2019 SEI Seibu_______    1029 1039 JPL

In the Central League, the Y teams – Yakult, Yokohama, and Yomiuri – tend to be hitters parks. The remainder – Hiroshima, Hanshin, and Chunichi – tend to be pitchers parks. All played true in 2019.

2019 CHU Chunichi____    958 942 JCL
2019 HNS Hanshin_____   952 940 JCL
2019 HRO Hiroshima___  986 985 JCL
2019 YKL Yakult______    1034 1071 JCL
2019 YKO Yokohama____ 1024 1029 JCL
2019 YOM Yomiuri_____  1076 1036 JCL

The top hitters in Japan were both quite young. In the Central League, 24-year-old Seiya Suzuki led with a .347 Equivalent Average untranslated (20 points ahead of anyone else), and 124 Equivalent Runs. That’s good for a translated .303. The performance was consistent with what he’s done for the past several years – he looks like the clear offensive leader of the country.

In the Pacific, the top translated EQA went to 23-year-old Tomoya Mori, who came in at .297 (.328 untranslated). In an oddity, the real EQA and EQR titles went to Masataka Yoshida, whose real stats were .332/114…but dropped to .293 in the translation. The translations don’t run straight from the EqA line – power, strikeouts, and batting average all adjust at different (but related) rates. Just 25 himself, Yoshida is also a repeat performer at these levels.

My picks for top pitcher in the Pacific League would probably come down to either Kohei Arihara (Nippon) or Yoshinobu Yamamoto (Orix) or Kodai Senga (Fukuoka). Arihara led the league with a 15-8 record and 65 Runs Above Replacement. Yamamoto, just 20, led the league with a 1.95 ERA and had 64 RAR. Senga had a league-leading 227 strikeouts – the 2nd place guy, Arihara, was at 161 – and also 64 RAR. Those three also have the best translations.

Top marks in the Central go, marginally for me, to Yudai Ono (Chunichi) for his 67 RAR. Four other pitchers are pretty close behind them with Shun Yamaguchi (Yomiuri) the one who has the best traditional stats (15-4 and 188 Ks led the league, his 2.91 ERA was third).

Unlike the American majors this year, with very sharp split between haves and have-nots, the Japanese leagues were rather well-balanced. The best team in the league, Seibu, went 80-62-1; expanded to 162 games, that’s only 91. Yakult was the worst team, at 59-82-2; that’s more than the Tigers, Orioles, Marlins, or (counting the ties) Royals won, despite playing 19 fewer games. Fukuoka, despite having just the third-best record in the league, stormed through the playoffs and swept Yomiuri in the finals to win the Climax Series.

Working on Korean stats for 2017-19 – they should be up this week.

Also working on 2020 projections. Hitters are just about done; the projections should be passing through to the individual player pages within another day. I’m still working on the pitcher settings – they’re at least a week or two away.

Just posted a new update a new update for all 2019 projections. No drastic changes –  still waiting for the big shoes (Manny and Bryce) to drop.

Congratulations to the new Hall of Famers –  Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, and Mike Mussina. It is perhaps the first time ever I have been in complete agreement with the writers in selecting the incoming class.

As long-time readers know, I have my own, purely objective Hall of Fame process. It follows the real Hall in some ways – it starts in 1936, has a 5-20 year after career ends window for eligibility, and is the same size (the real Hall says they had 228 players, prior to the 6 new players coming in 2019. I have 234 players in mine.)

Players get a career score based on their season by season WARP (WARP3, for the picky; adjusted for league quality and season length). Your best season gets counted 15 times, your second-best season 14 times, third-best 13 times, and so on, and so on, until the 15th (and any further seasons) get counted once. The number of players for the Hall is set by allowing 1 Hall of Famer for every 12 teams in history – meaning I had 2.5 players every year right now, thanks to a 30-team league. Last year was a 3-person year, this year is a two – and the best two eligible scores get to go in.

This year those best two scores belonged to Rivera (961) and Halladay (812). I had already inducted Mussina (813, inducted in 2014, his first eligible year) and Martinez (820, in 2010, his first year). Scott Rolen (719) was the first runner-up this season, as he was last year; Jim Thome (715) was the second runner-up, Todd Helton (711) third, Johan Santana (702) fourth, and John Smoltz (700) fifth. I can say with complete confidence that all of them will make it in over the next few years (by the nature of the routine, everything out to 2023 is set in stone, unless someone comes out of retirement).

I wish I could say the same about the selections from the newest incarnation of the Veterans’ Committee. Lee Smith I am OK with. He scores a 550 with me, which is a better score than 10 players I put in my Hall. He made it onto my Runners-up list 4 times in the 15 years he was eligible (admittedly, always at the 25th – last – position on it). But my standard for a really bad Hall selection tends to be restricted to players who never even got onto that list once.

A player like Harold Baines. Baines’ only real qualification is longevity – he played long enough and just well enough to rack up some decent career totals, which does earn him some points with my system. Baines scores a 503, which is worse than any player who made my Hall (Bill Mazeroski got in with a 515 in 1979 – that’s my low score. There was a lull in scores from about 1965-80). At least he doesn’t compare with the very worst picks in Hall history, guys like George Kelly (336), Jesse Haines (329), Lloyd Waner (319), and Chick Hafey (306).

johnswa01 WALTER JOHNSON 1936 SP 1247.3
cobbty01 TY COBB 1936 CF 1077.7
wagneho01 HONUS WAGNER 1936 SS 1049.8
alexape01 PETE ALEXANDER 1936 SP 1015.3
speaktr01 TRIS SPEAKER 1936 CF 982.0
Runners-up 1936 mathech01 lajoina01 collied01 youngcy01 connoro01

mathech01 CHRISTY MATHEWSON 1937 SP 971.5
lajoina01 NAP LAJOIE 1937 SB 947.9
collied01 EDDIE COLLINS 1937 SB 915.5
youngcy01 CY YOUNG 1937 SP 890.7
connoro01 ROGER CONNOR 1937 FB 872.6
Runners-up 1937 broutda01 delahed01 walshed01 ewingbu01 ansonca01

broutda01 DAN BROUTHERS 1938 FB 855.4
delahed01 ED DELAHANTY 1938 LF 839.5
walshed01 ED WALSH 1938 SP 818.9
ewingbu01 BUCK EWING 1938 C 807.7
ansonca01 CAP ANSON 1938 FB 777.6
Runners-up 1938 hamilbi01 kellyki01 whitede01 flickel01 planked01

hamilbi01 BILLY HAMILTON 1939 CF 762.0
kellyki01 KING KELLY 1939 RF 755.6
whitede01 DEACON WHITE 1939 C 733.0
flickel01 ELMER FLICK 1939 RF 729.7
planked01 EDDIE PLANK 1939 SP 726.8
Runners-up 1939 dahlebi01 glassja01 bennech01 hinespa01 mcgrajo01

dahlebi01 BILL DAHLEN 1940 SS 725.0
glassja01 JACK GLASSCOCK 1940 SS 712.4
bennech01 CHARLIE BENNETT 1940 C 687.2
hinespa01 PAUL HINES 1940 CF 673.0
mcgrajo01 JOHN MCGRAW 1940 TB 670.6
Runners-up 1940 davisge01 barnero01 thompsa01 keelewi01 jacksjo01

[[Maximum class size reduced from 5 to 4]]

ruthba01 BABE RUTH 1941 RF 1378.2
vanceda01 DAZZY VANCE 1941 SP 669.8
davisge01 GEORGE DAVIS 1941 SS 660.4
barnero01 ROSS BARNES 1941 SB 642.6
Runners-up 1941 thompsa01 keelewi01 jacksjo01 colliji01 heilmha01

thompsa01 SAM THOMPSON 1942 RF 638.3
keelewi01 WILLIE KEELER 1942 RF 635.7
jacksjo01 JOE JACKSON 1942 RF 631.5
colliji01 JIMMY COLLINS 1942 TB 622.3
Runners-up 1942 heilmha01 orourji01 covelst01 wadderu01 wallabo01

hornsro01 ROGERS HORNSBY 1943 SB 969.0
cochrmi01 MICKEY COCHRANE 1943 C 693.5
friscfr01 FRANKIE FRISCH 1943 SB 659.8
heilmha01 HARRY HEILMANN 1943 RF 620.6
Runners-up 1943 orourji01 covelst01 wadderu01 wallabo01 rusieam01

orourji01 JIM O’ROURKE 1944 LF 618.0
covelst01 STAN COVELESKI 1944 SP 612.3
wadderu01 RUBE WADDELL 1944 SP 610.5
wallabo01 BOBBY WALLACE 1944 SS 608.9
Runners-up 1944 rusieam01 nichoki01 cicoted01 brownth01 jennihu01

gehrilo01 LOU GEHRIG 1945 FB 949.3
rusieam01 AMOS RUSIE 1945 SP 607.8
nichoki01 KID NICHOLS 1945 SP 604.2
cicoted01 EDDIE CICOTTE 1945 SP 601.3
Runners-up 1945 brownth01 jennihu01 longhe01 tiernmi01 richaha01

brownth01 THREE_FINGER BROWN 1946 SP 599.8
jennihu01 HUGHIE JENNINGS 1946 SS 599.4
longhe01 HERMAN LONG 1946 SS 595.9
tiernmi01 MIKE TIERNAN 1946 RF 595.9
Runners-up 1946 richaha01 seweljo01 clarkfr01 clarkjo01 willine01

grovele01 LEFTY GROVE 1947 SP 767.8
hartnga01 GABBY HARTNETT 1947 C 752.5
richaha01 HARDY RICHARDSON 1947 SB 593.7
ferrewe01 WES FERRELL 1947 SP 593.5
Runners-up 1947 seweljo01 clarkfr01 clarkjo01 willine01 gorege01

gehrich01 CHARLIE GEHRINGER 1948 SB 723.2
seweljo01 JOE SEWELL 1948 SS 592.5
clarkfr01 FRED CLARKE 1948 LF 591.7
clarkjo01 JOHN CLARKSON 1948 SP 590.4
Runners-up 1948 willine01 gorege01 childcu01 seymocy01 whitedo01

[[Maximum class size reduced to 3]]

hubbeca01 CARL HUBBELL 1949 SP 757.0
willine01 NED WILLIAMSON 1949 TB 588.7
gorege01 GEORGE GORE 1949 CF 588.2
Runners-up 1949 childcu01 seymocy01 whitedo01 ruckena01 burkeje01

simmoal01 AL SIMMONS 1950 LF 596.2
childcu01 CUPID CHILDS 1950 SB 584.7
seymocy01 CY SEYMOUR 1950 CF 583.5
Runners-up 1950 whitedo01 ruckena01 burkeje01 becklja01 chancfr01

foxxji01 JIMMIE FOXX 1951 FB 794.4
wanerpa01 PAUL WANER 1951 RF 758.1
cronijo01 JOE CRONIN 1951 SS 725.1
Runners-up 1951 whitedo01 ruckena01 burkeje01 becklja01 chancfr01

dickebi01 BILL DICKEY 1952 C 766.0
lyonste01 TED LYONS 1952 SP 613.5
whitedo01 DOC WHITE 1952 SP 582.1
Runners-up 1952 ruckena01 burkeje01 becklja01 chancfr01 dunlafr01

ottme01 MEL OTT 1953 RF 928.7
hermabi01 BILLY HERMAN 1953 SB 648.9
passecl01 CLAUDE PASSEAU 1953 SP 602.3
Runners-up 1953 greenha01 ruffire01 hackst01 ruckena01 deandi01

vaughar01 ARKY VAUGHAN 1954 SS 795.5
medwijo01 JOE MEDWICK 1954 LF 650.1
greenha01 HANK GREENBERG 1954 FB 594.1
Runners-up 1954 ruffire01 hackst01 ruckena01 deandi01 burkeje01

ruffire01 RED RUFFING 1955 SP 591.1
hackst01 STAN HACK 1955 TB 580.7
ruckena01 NAP RUCKER 1955 SP 580.4
Runners-up 1955 deandi01 burkeje01 becklja01 chancfr01 dunlafr01

applilu01 LUKE APPLING 1956 SS 679.2
waltebu01 BUCKY WALTERS 1956 SP 641.5
gordojo01 JOE GORDON 1956 SB 640.0
Runners-up 1956 deandi01 burkeje01 becklja01 chancfr01 dunlafr01

dimagjo01 JOE DIMAGGIO 1957 CF 880.4
doerrbo01 BOBBY DOERR 1957 SB 675.0
deandi01 DIZZY DEAN 1957 SP 578.6
Runners-up 1957 burkeje01 becklja01 chancfr01 dunlafr01 warnelo01

boudrlo01 LOU BOUDREAU 1958 SS 695.5
burkeje01 JESSE BURKETT 1958 LF 577.8
becklja01 JAKE BECKLEY 1958 FB 575.9
Runners-up 1958 chancfr01 dunlafr01 warnelo01 grohhe01 wardmo01

mizejo01 JOHNNY MIZE 1959 FB 727.9
leonadu02 DUTCH LEONARD 1959 SP 594.9
chancfr01 FRANK CHANCE 1959 FB 575.8
Runners-up 1959 dunlafr01 warnelo01 grohhe01 wardmo01 whitnji01

dunlafr01 FRED DUNLAP 1960 SB 574.4
warnelo01 LON WARNEKE 1960 SP 572.0
grohhe01 HEINIE GROH 1960 TB 570.3
Runners-up 1960 wardmo01 whitnji01 crawfsa01 johnsbo01 griffmi01

newhoha01 HAL NEWHOUSER 1961 SP 736.1
wardmo01 MONTE WARD 1961 SP 567.9
whitnji01 JIM WHITNEY 1961 SP 567.3
Runners-up 1961 crawfsa01 johnsbo01 kinerra01 griffmi01 bancrda01

fellebo01 BOB FELLER 1962 SP 790.6
robinja02 JACKIE ROBINSON 1962 SB 683.9
crawfsa01 SAM CRAWFORD 1962 RF 561.6
Runners-up 1962 johnsbo01 kinerra01 griffmi01 bancrda01 veachbo01

camparo01 ROY CAMPANELLA 1963 C 597.7
troutdi01 DIZZY TROUT 1963 SP 572.7
johnsbo01 BOB JOHNSON 1963 LF 560.5
Runners-up 1963 kinerra01 griffmi01 bancrda01 veachbo01 radboch01

reesepe01 PEE_WEE REESE 1964 SS 585.6
kinerra01 RALPH KINER 1964 LF 559.9
griffmi01 MIKE GRIFFIN 1964 CF 558.3
Runners-up 1964 bancrda01 veachbo01 radboch01 lemonbo01 sheckji01

bancrda01 DAVE BANCROFT 1965 SS 555.1
veachbo01 BOBBY VEACH 1965 LF 553.3
radboch01 CHARLES RADBOURN 1965 SP 553.2
Runners-up 1965 lemonbo01 sheckji01 faberre01 willivi01 brownpe01

willite01 TED WILLIAMS 1966 LF 1033.3
lemonbo01 BOB LEMON 1966 SP 553.1
sheckji01 JIMMY SHECKARD 1966 LF 552.0
Runners-up 1966 faberre01 willivi01 brownpe01 bartedi01 griffcl01

faberre01 RED FABER 1967 SP 551.7
willivi01 VIC WILLIS 1967 SP 549.7
brownpe01 PETE BROWNING 1967 CF 549.1
Runners-up 1967 bartedi01 griffcl01 wheatza01 mcphebi01 terrybi01

ashburi01 RICHIE ASHBURN 1968 CF 795.7
bartedi01 DICK BARTELL 1968 SS 548.6
griffcl01 CLARK GRIFFITH 1968 SP 546.9
Runners-up 1968 wheatza01 mcphebi01 terrybi01 vaughhi01 mcginjo01

[[ In 1968, the size of the Hall catches up to the “should-be” size that came from starting in 1936. Eligibility, which has been only based on 5 years retired, will change to a 5-20 window in 1970]].

musiast01 STAN MUSIAL 1969 RF 1008.3
wynnea01 EARLY WYNN 1969 SP 592.3
Runners-up 1969 wheatza01 mcphebi01 terrybi01 vaughhi01 mcginjo01

snidedu01 DUKE SNIDER 1970 CF 580.6
piercbi02 BILLY PIERCE 1970 SP 561.1
Runners-up 1970 wheatza01 mcphebi01 terrybi01 vaughhi01 mcginjo01

spahnwa01 WARREN SPAHN 1971 SP 907.8
berrayo01 YOGI BERRA 1971 C 721.2
Runners-up 1971 hodgegi01 nichobi01 elliobo01 stephve01 newsobo01

roberro01 ROBIN ROBERTS 1972 SP 774.3
koufasa01 SANDY KOUFAX 1972 SP 661.6
Runners-up 1972 frienbo01 hodgegi01 nichobi01 elliobo01 stephve01

frienbo01 BOB FRIEND 1973 SP 568.7
fordwh01 WHITEY FORD 1973 SP 555.8
Runners-up 1973 hodgegi01 nichobi01 elliobo01 stephve01 newsobo01

mantlmi01 MICKEY MANTLE 1974 CF 912.6
matheed01 EDDIE MATHEWS 1974 TB 848.2
Runners-up 1974 hodgegi01 nichobi01 elliobo01 stephve01 newsobo01

drysddo01 DON DRYSDALE 1975 SP 718.1
boyerke01 KEN BOYER 1975 TB 629.4
Runners-up 1975 hodgegi01 stephve01 jacksla01 slaugen01 garvene01

hodgegi01 GIL HODGES 1976 FB 532.5
stephve01 VERN STEPHENS 1976 SS 528.4
Runners-up 1976 jacksla01 slaugen01 garvene01 schoere01 foxne01

bankser01 ERNIE BANKS 1977 SS 678.2
bunniji01 JIM BUNNING 1977 SP 673.0
Runners-up 1977 pascuca02 jacksla01 slaugen01 garvene01 schoere01

clemero01 ROBERTO CLEMENTE 1978 RF 653.5
wilheho01 HOYT WILHELM 1978 RP 544.2
Runners-up 1978 pascuca02 mazerbi01 jacksla01 slaugen01 garvene01

mayswi01 WILLIE MAYS 1979 CF 1221.4
pascuca02 CAMILO PASCUAL 1979 SP 526.4
mazerbi01 BILL MAZEROSKI 1979 SB 515.0
Runners-up 1979 jacksla01 slaugen01 garvene01 schoere01 foxne01

santoro01 RON SANTO 1980 TB 780.0
kalinal01 AL KALINE 1980 RF 662.3
Runners-up 1980 cepedor01 jacksla01 slaugen01 garvene01 cashno01

gibsobo01 BOB GIBSON 1981 SP 846.4
maricju01 JUAN MARICHAL 1981 SP 686.3
Runners-up 1981 cepedor01 killeha01 jacksla01 garvene01 cashno01

aaronha01 HANK AARON 1982 RF 1003.5
robinfr02 FRANK ROBINSON 1982 RF 854.4
Runners-up 1982 cepedor01 willibi01 killeha01 jacksla01 freehbi01

wynnji01 JIM WYNN 1983 CF 749.3
allendi01 DICK ALLEN 1983 TB 698.1
Runners-up 1983 torrejo01 robinbr01 cepedor01 willibi01 killeha01

torrejo01 JOE TORRE 1984 C 625.9
robinbr01 BROOKS ROBINSON 1984 TB 603.6
Runners-up 1984 cepedor01 woodwi01 willibi01 killeha01 jacksla01

munsoth01 THURMAN MUNSON 1985 C 589.8
cepedor01 ORLANDO CEPEDA 1985 FB 581.3
woodwi01 WILBUR WOOD 1985 SP 575.7
Runners-up 1985 willibi01 whitero01 killeha01 jacksla01 freehbi01

mccovwi01 WILLIE MCCOVEY 1986 FB 656.7
willibi01 BILLY WILLIAMS 1986 LF 569.2
Runners-up 1986 whitero01 killeha01 jacksla01 freehbi01 hunteca01

bondsbo01 BOBBY BONDS 1987 RF 596.7
whitero01 ROY WHITE 1987 LF 538.2
Runners-up 1987 killeha01 jacksla01 freehbi01 hunteca01 cashno01

tiantlu01 LUIS TIANT 1988 SP 621.9
smithre06 REGGIE SMITH 1988 RF 560.6
Runners-up 1988 stargwi01 killeha01 jacksla01 freehbi01 hunteca01

benchjo01 JOHNNY BENCH 1989 C 884.4
perryga01 GAYLORD PERRY 1989 SP 773.0
Runners-up 1989 jenkife01 yastrca01 tenacge01 campabe01 stargwi01

morgajo02 JOE MORGAN 1990 SB 839.7
palmeji01 JIM PALMER 1990 SP 712.0
Runners-up 1990 jenkife01 yastrca01 tenacge01 campabe01 stargwi01

jenkife01 FERGIE JENKINS 1991 SP 703.3
yastrca01 CARL YASTRZEMSKI 1991 LF 696.8
carewro01 ROD CAREW 1991 SB 686.6
Runners-up 1991 tenacge01 campabe01 fingero01 stargwi01 koosmje01

seaveto01 TOM SEAVER 1992 SP 874.4
grichbo01 BOBBY GRICH 1992 SB 804.7
Runners-up 1992 rosepe01 tenacge01 bluevi01 campabe01 fingero01

rosepe01 PETE ROSE 1993 LF 712.0
niekrph01 PHIL NIEKRO 1993 SP 706.2
Runners-up 1993 jacksre01 tenacge01 bluevi01 campabe01 fingero01

carltst01 STEVE CARLTON 1994 SP 823.6
jacksre01 REGGIE JACKSON 1994 RF 695.2
Runners-up 1994 simmote01 nettlgr01 conceda01 tenacge01 cruzjo01

schmimi01 MIKE SCHMIDT 1995 TB 1009.6
evansda01 DARRELL EVANS 1995 TB 627.8
simmote01 TED SIMMONS 1995 C 626.0
Runners-up 1995 nettlgr01 conceda01 tenacge01 cruzjo01 bluevi01

hernake01 KEITH HERNANDEZ 1996 FB 663.5
lemonch01 CHET LEMON 1996 CF 650.6
Runners-up 1996 nettlgr01 conceda01 tenacge01 cruzjo01 bluevi01

evansdw01 DWIGHT EVANS 1997 RF 712.5
nettlgr01 GRAIG NETTLES 1997 TB 616.1
Runners-up 1997 conceda01 tenacge01 reuscri01 cruzjo01 bluevi01

cartega01 GARY CARTER 1998 C 816.7
blylebe01 BERT BLYLEVEN 1998 SP 804.9
randowi01 WILLIE RANDOLPH 1998 SB 630.8
Runners-up 1998 conceda01 tenacge01 reuscri01 cruzjo01 bluevi01

brettge01 GEORGE BRETT 1999 TB 846.8
ryanno01 NOLAN RYAN 1999 SP 747.1
Runners-up 1999 yountro01 fiskca01 tananfr01 conceda01 tenacge01

yountro01 ROBIN YOUNT 2000 SS 732.0
fiskca01 CARLTON FISK 2000 C 695.8
tananfr01 FRANK TANANA 2000 SP 652.9
Runners-up 2000 gossari01 conceda01 tenacge01 reuscri01 cruzjo01

whitalo01 LOU WHITAKER 2001 SB 656.0
puckeki01 KIRBY PUCKETT 2001 CF 645.1
Runners-up 2001 gossari01 conceda01 mattido01 parrila02 tenacge01

trammal01 ALAN TRAMMELL 2002 SS 782.6
smithoz01 OZZIE SMITH 2002 SS 727.3
dawsoan01 ANDRE DAWSON 2002 CF 677.6
Runners-up 2002 gossari01 violafr01 conceda01 mattido01 parrila02

sandbry01 RYNE SANDBERG 2003 SB 718.9
murraed02 EDDIE MURRAY 2003 FB 653.3
Runners-up 2003 gossari01 violafr01 butlebr01 conceda01 mattido01

molitpa01 PAUL MOLITOR 2004 OT 761.6
eckerde01 DENNIS ECKERSLEY 2004 SP 688.2
gossari01 RICH GOSSAGE 2004 RP 642.9
Runners-up 2004 violafr01 butlebr01 stiebda01 conceda01 mattido01

boggswa01 WADE BOGGS 2005 TB 869.2
violafr01 FRANK VIOLA 2005 SP 641.5
Runners-up 2005 butlebr01 stiebda01 phillto02 langsma01 conceda01

belleal01 ALBERT BELLE 2006 LF 724.5
hershor01 OREL HERSHISER 2006 SP 674.7
butlebr01 BRETT BUTLER 2006 CF 638.4
Runners-up 2006 stiebda01 goodedw01 phillto02 langsma01 clarkwi02

ripkeca01 CAL RIPKEN 2007 SS 941.5
mcgwima01 MARK MCGWIRE 2007 FB 736.4
Runners-up 2007 saberbr01 gwynnto01 stiebda01 goodedw01 phillto02

raineti01 TIM RAINES 2008 LF 756.9
saberbr01 BRET SABERHAGEN 2008 SP 706.6
finlech01 CHUCK FINLEY 2008 SP 679.0
Runners-up 2008 gwynnto01 stiebda01 goodedw01 phillto02 fernato01

henderi01 RICKEY HENDERSON 2009 LF 1005.1
coneda01 DAVID CONE 2009 SP 702.3
Runners-up 2009 gwynnto01 stiebda01 goodedw01 phillto02 fernato01

martied01 EDGAR MARTINEZ 2010 OT 819.8
alomaro01 ROBERTO ALOMAR 2010 SB 747.5
larkiba01 BARRY LARKIN 2010 SS 744.5
Runners-up 2010 gwynnto01 appieke01 venturo01 stiebda01 goodedw01

brownke01 KEVIN BROWN 2011 SP 757.9
gwynnto01 TONY GWYNN 2011 RF 672.5
Runners-up 2011 bagweje01 appieke01 olerujo01 palmera01 venturo01

willibe02 BERNIE WILLIAMS 2012 CF 726.7
bagweje01 JEFF BAGWELL 2012 FB 669.9
appieke01 KEVIN APPIER 2012 SP 661.6
Runners-up 2012 olerujo01 palmera01 venturo01 stiebda01 goodedw01

bondsba01 BARRY BONDS 2013 LF 1293.8
clemero02 ROGER CLEMENS 2013 SP 1120.0
Runners-up 2013 piazzmi01 schilcu01 sosasa01 olerujo01 palmera01

maddugr01 GREG MADDUX 2014 SP 978.8
thomafr04 FRANK THOMAS 2014 FB 815.4
mussimi01 MIKE MUSSINA 2014 SP 812.7
Runners-up 2014 piazzmi01 schilcu01 glavito02 sosasa01 kentje01

johnsra05 RANDY JOHNSON 2015 SP 947.0
martipe02 PEDRO MARTINEZ 2015 SP 871.8
Runners-up 2015 sheffga01 piazzmi01 schilcu01 smoltjo01 glavito02

griffke02 KEN GRIFFEY 2016 CF 863.1
sheffga01 GARY SHEFFIELD 2016 RF 746.8
piazzmi01 MIKE PIAZZA 2016 C 738.1
Runners-up 2016 edmonji01 schilcu01 smoltjo01 glavito02 hoffmtr01

rodriiv01 IVAN RODRIGUEZ 2017 C 833.7
ramirma02 MANNY RAMIREZ 2017 LF 764.5
Runners-up 2017 posadjo01 edmonji01 schilcu01 smoltjo01 glavito02

posadjo01 JORGE POSADA 2018 C 745.3
edmonji01 JIM EDMONDS 2018 CF 737.7
schilcu01 CURT SCHILLING 2018 SP 724.5
Runners-up 2018 rolensc01 thomeji01 santajo01 smoltjo01 jonesch06

riverma01 MARIANO RIVERA 2019 RP 961.3
hallaro01 ROY HALLADAY 2019 SP 811.9
Runners-up 2019 rolensc01 thomeji01 heltoto01 santajo01 smoltjo01

Catching up on the Dozier and Lowrie signings that got lost in the list of “arbitration avoided” news Friday and Saturday. Dozier should be a big help to Washington, strengthening a basically vacant position while freeing Kendrick up to provide some depth (which is still lacking there.) As far as Lowrie to the Mets – I’m having trouble fitting him in around Cano and Frazier. I tried to work him in at first, but I had to delay Alonso a bit to do it. Forced McNeil into the outfield more, mostly at the expense of Lagares and Rajai Davis (who, as an NRI, should have to stand in line behind players actually on the roster – but he always seems to find a way in).

I also did a quickie add-in of Machado to the White Sox and Harper to the Phillies, chasing latest rumors. Neither one would be pushing aside truly replacement-level players, so you won’t get the full value of their WARP. Machado pushes the White Sox up to a still very third-place 75 wins, three more than otherwise – worked out the same whether I displaced Anderson at SS or Sanchez at 3rd.

For Harper, I had him replace Nick Williams in left, and that pushed the Phils from 85 to 89 wins. It also dropped the other NL East teams by about a half-win apiece, a not-insignificant change in a crowded field.

Nothing like a snowy weekend to get me down to making my final go-overs and send the newest projections out to the world.

I’ve been wrestling with choices for how to handle the pitcher numbers…had a preliminary release last week which I did not publicize, although I know some of you noticed…and decided there were too many numbers that were too freaky to keep some of the mods I was trying to make.

Of course, there are some big free agents yet to drop (Machado and Harper, especially). My strategy on building these depth charts is this – I only fill out for teams. Almost nobody – I think literally nobody this year – gets more than 90% playing time estimate. Maximum playing times are loosely based on the computer returns, but I can’t give full playing time to guys who have only averaged 400 PA or 100 IP over the last few years. All positions have to be filled to 100% with players currently on the roster (and I do hope I have removed everybody who played for a team last year and got released – it can be really hard to track all of the veteran guys are in the 3A/major borderland). That means 162 starts and 100% of saves have to be allocated. Some of these current choices will get wiped out when players get signed – Craig Kimbrel will take saves away from somebody, no doubt. I will be updating these frequently – far more often than I write about the changes, I’m afraid.

Looking at the projections – Houston is looking like a runaway in the AL West. Cleveland is a clear favorite in the Central. I am surprised that I rank the Yankees ahead of the Red Sox, especially by the magnitude, but the Sox still make the first wild card. If – and a big if it is, no one knows that better than I do – if I turn out entirely right, then Tampa Bay looks to outlast the Twins for the second wild card. Three more teams from the West – the Angels, As, and Mariners – look good enough to contend for the Wild Card. The remainder, “led” to the back by the Orioles, appear to be playing for 2020.

Over in the NL, the West again looks like the clearest division, heading to the Dodgers. The Rockies, though, do look like solid competition, and rate my first wild card. The NL East is a dog-pile, with everyone but Miami (who I project with the worst record in baseball) gunning for the division; I have the Nationals on top by the slimmest of margins. I have the Cubs on top of the Central, and I don’t like it – the projections for all of their starters just look too favorable to me, as they have some of the worst comp performances around and I don’t think the computer is weighing them in enough. If they do falter, the Cardinals, Brewers, and (surprise) Reds are all nipping at their heels. I have 9 teams between 84 and 90 wins, and I need to get two division champs and two wild cards out of them.

when lo0king at spring training stats.

Florida games:    .254 batting average, .331 onbase, .414 slugging, 9.4 runs per game

Arizona games:   .275   (+21!)         .351 (+20)   .469 (+55!),  11.5  (+2.1)

Offense is 22% higher in Cactus games than Grapefruit games.

On top of that, teams have wildly different run environments, even within the two leagues. The run environment includes what might be called park factors – although, over just 15 or so games, it also includes windy days, umpires, and a whole lot variability. It also will lean strongly for teams whose pitching is a lot better than their hitting (low run envi), or vice versa (high runs). Which may be the main reason that the Baltimore Orioles (good offense, suspect pitching) are playing in the most extreme run environment of the spring; 11.3 runs per game is 21% than the Florida average. Their real-life neighbors, the Washington Nationals, are playing the most extreme low run environment this spring, with a 7.3 rpg (a lower run environment than the 1968 Washington Senators!), 23% below average.

all teams run environments, relative to their league average

1. Baltimore 1.211
2. San Francisco  1.197
3. Pittsburgh 1.137
4. Detroit 1.108
5. White Sox 1.106
6. Oakland 1.090
7. Houston 1.087
8. Toronto 1.075
9. Arizona 1.075
10. Cleveland 1.073
11. Mets 1.068
12. Kansas City 1.066
13. Yankees 1.045
14. Boston 1.035
15. San Diego 1.030
16. Dodgers 1.008
17. St Louis .997
18. Philadelphia .947
19. Texas .942
20. Cincinnati .932
21. Cubs .931
22. Tampa Bay .919
23. Angels .914
24. Colorado .890
25. Minnesota .883
26. Seattle .873
27. Milwaukee .867
28. Atlanta .855
29. Miami .840
30. Washington .776

I pulled this out from the comments because I thought the answers might be helpful to more than one person.. With thanks to Josh Clayton…

Hello Clay. Thank you for your work – I really enjoy the player comps. Why do some of a player’s comps change when the Organizational DT reports are generated every month? Michael Conforto had Lance Berkman as a comp in November but no longer does now.

The simple answer to the question is that it means I changed something. The offseason is a time for me to review, reanalyze, and test the assumptions that go into model that generates the comps; I try to avoid doing it while the season is underway, simply because I cannot reprocess everybody else and keep up with the real-time player updates. There were two main changes I worked in (before a third one, which I’ll get to in a moment). I wanted to raise the importance of the player’s level – enlarging the penalty between stats accumulated at AAA versus stats accumulated at AA, for instance. Secondly, and probably a larger effect, was changing the player’s baseline stats. The way I calculated the 3-year averages, for all players, moved into a weighted average, with different weights for different stats, and also with variable regression to the mean.

What I mean by that is – some statistics are more deterministic than others. Pitchers strikeouts are strong – the most recent season has a  high weight, and RTM is small, about .5/.2/.1. The most recent season is carrying 63% of the total, and the difference between the sum of the weights (.8) and 1.o is small. Pitchers hits allowed, by contrast, have weights like .15-.1-.1. They are essentially even over the last three years, with a large RTM.

And where do you get the player’s height and weight info? Dominic Smith’s page lists him at 185 pounds but Baseball Reference has him at 239.

Well, this is going to set off another change in the comps, and is just flat-out embarrassing. I have a program that is supposed to run to keep my master bio file up to date. It appears that said program broke a couple of years ago without me noticing. As a result – once a player entered my database, his info became static. When Dominic Smith entered my lists – as an 18-year-old in the Appalachian League – he was listed as 6’0″, 185. Now – aged 22 – he’s added 45 pounds and is listed as 239. He was still listed at 185 by MLB after 2014, and after 2015. Went to 250 during the 2016 season, and 239 this year. The numbers come from an MLB stat feed.

While weights are the most likely thing to change, the same program will also pick up on changes in height (anyone drafted 18 or younger may still have some growth upwards, not just outwards), names (Michaels become Mikes), and occasionally correct errors in handedness or birthdates – recognizing that some of those birthdate “errors” are deliberate. So that program did get patched up, and everyone was updated, and now everyone needs to be rerun. That is going to take a few days.

Also, the comps for some of the pitchers the Mets drafted in 2017 are for different players. David Peterson was the Mets top pick this past year and I was curious what his comps were but his page instead lists the comps for Tommy Peterson. The other pitchers whose pages display the comps of a different player are: Marcel Renteria, Aaron Ford, Tony Dibrell, Matt Cleveland, Kyle Wilson, Joshua Walker, Nate Peden, Noah Nunez, Liam McCall, Dariel Rivera, Bryce Hutchinson, Ronnie Taylor Jr., and Yadiel Flores.

That indicates the program broke while running his projection, and inserted the numbers for the player previously run – which indicates I am not clearing a file before starting. I can see that the re-runs did fix Matt Cleveland’s page – hasn’t gone to the web yet, but he’s alphabetically the earliest one there, and the program is only up to D players yet. I think you’ll still be out of luck with Peterson, though – having less than 10 innings pitched, total, will break the program.

Those of you with long memories may remember that I have my own Hall of Fame rating scale. It is a purely objective system, based only on the player’s season by season WARP ratings – no postseason, no All-Star games, no subjective flash, no drugs, no gambling. It isn’t meant to be perfect, and it isn’t meant to simulate who is actually in.

The system is based on what I called the player’s “MVP Career” score. It is just a weighted average of the player’s WARP3 scores, and I called it “MVP Career” because it used a similar weighting system as the MVP ballot. The player’s best season gets counted 14 times. His second-best season gets counted 9 times, his third-best 8 times, and so on. Everything from the 10^th-best season through the end of his career gets counted once. So longevity will help build a score, but for the most part you have to have a strong peak to have a high enough score to get in. The best score in history belongs to Babe Ruth, at 785; 6 players have a 600+, 34 have 500+, 145 score 400, and 484 score 300.

One thing that does make my Hall system different from other systems – like Jaffe’s JAWS or James’s Monitor – is that it has no set value to decide whether a player is in or out. Like the real Hall, the selection is serial. I have a defined size for the Hall – and the top available players needed to fill it get in.

I defined the size of my Hall by looking at the size of the real Hall, and comparing it to the number of teams in major league history. It turns out that the real Hall of Fame has inducted about one member for every 12 team-seasons – that number may have drifted a bit since I first did the study however many years ago, but it provides a nice, workable number.

Like the real Hall, I started my calculations from 1936. At that time, there should already have been 70-odd players in the Hall, based on the number of teams in history then. But I set rules that more or less mirrored the behavior of the real Hall. I limited the entry class for any given year to 5 initially, then dropped it to 4 after a few years, and then to 3 – until the Hall had caught up to size. I imposed a five-year wait for all players to become eligible (even dead ones; sorry), and gave them a 15-year window of eligibility (the 15-year window only kicked in at 1960). My first class matched the real Hall on three of them – Honus Wagner, Ty Cobb, and Walter Johnson. I have Pete Alexander ranked higher than Christy Mathewson, and so reversed their real-life induction years. And I also moved Nap Lajoie up a year, because Babe Ruth wasn’t eligible for me until 1941.

So, with 30 teams in the majors, I have a Hall that grows by either 2 or 3 players a year. The best 2 (or 3) players available at that time are my inductees (which helps to limit the consequences of, say, any bias in the WARP rating system over time). There are players who do wait multiple years before breaking through. The score needed to get you in varies with time. In the 60s and 70s, some inductees had scores barely over 300; today, players with a 400 score cannot be certain of getting in.

This year, 2018, was a 3 year – the program says I have room for Hall members #227, #228, and #229. The three best players available to me, my own inductees for 2018, were

Jorge Posada, 437. Sadly, dropped from the writer’s ballot last year.

Scott Rolen, 426. Received only 10% of the vote this year.

Sammy Sosa, 422 . Received only 8%, pays a hefty PED penalty.

Looking over the rest of the writer’s voting:

Chipper Jones – Jones has a 409 career score, and for my purposes trails Scott Rolen. I have a huge defensive split between them, with Rolen at +115 runs for his career and Jones at -160, easily enough to explain the difference between their scores and their perceptions. One of the features, if you will, about my set-up is that I can tell you right now what the selections are for the next five years, based on players who did not play in 2017, assuming no one un-retires. Chipper ranks as my third runnerup in 2018, and will remain among the top 5 runners-up until finally making it in in 2022.

Vladimir Guerrero – 369 career MVP score. Does not make my ballot, and never makes the top 5 runners-up. He only has 1 truly outstanding season for me, a 9.0 WARP3 in 2004 which was third-best in the league. He only had one other season above 6, two more over 5. I have him ranked 24^th among all right fielders – that doesn’t quite make it.

Jim Thome – 410. Thome is my second runnerup in 2018, one spot ahead of Chipper. He’s set to break through in 2021

Trevor Hoffman – 380. Hoffman’s score is the third best score for a relief pitcher, better even then Eckersley (377), Gossage (365), Fingers (342), or Wilhelm (310). Due to the vagaries of the system, Wilhelm and Eckersley made it into my Hall (in 1979 and 2004; Gossage was first runnerup 4 different times but never broke through). Hoffman never breaks into the top 5 also-rans.

Edgar Martinez – 466. I set a player’s position by where he recorded the most WARP3, not games played. For me, Ernie Banks is a shortstop, not a first baseman. And Edgar Martinez is a DH, and he ranks as the best DH ever, ahead of Paul Molitor (433, inducted 2004) and David Ortiz (423, scheduled to go in with A-Rod and Chipper Jones in 2022). Martinez went in for me on his first ballot in 2010.

Mike Mussina – 435. Mussina went in for me in 2016, his third ballot.

Roger Clemens – 609. Clemens has the second highest pitching score ever, behind only Walter Johnson’s 687. Without PEDs, there is no doubt that Clemens would be in – and I mean that in every sense of the word, because he did enough before ever touching PEDs to earn a spot. My system makes no allowance for moral failings, any more than it did for Joe Jackson (1941) or Pete Rose (1993). He was part of a two-man class to make my Hall in 2013.

Barry Bonds – 749. The other member of my 2013 class, and most of what I just said about Clemens fits here too. He has the second highest MVP score in history, behind only Ruth. Also noteworthy that his father‘s 355 score was good enough to make the Hall in 1987, giving me a father/son duo.

Curt Schilling – 392. Another example where outside controversy won’t follow a player into my system, but his score isn’t going to be enough to get him in. He was the third runnerup in 2013, dropped to fifth in 2014, and hasn’t made the top 5 since. He’ll be in the running for best score that doesn’t make it in.

Omar Vizquel – 254. A player who is only listed on the ballots because of his defense, but I only give him +56 for his career. I do believe that is too low. I have a couple of programs I have played around with over the years, one that compares fielders against other fielders behind the same pitcher, and another that controls for opposing hitters. With his pitchers, Vizquel was only about 33 plays above average, which would be about +25 runs; but controlling for opposing hitters, he’s +218 plays. That would be good for an extra 100 runs or so, and would be more in keeping with his popular image, but still wouldn’t compare to Ozzie Smith (+586) or Mark Belanger (+347) using the same scale. A 254 score only makes him the 63^rd best shortstop in history, and doesn’t come close to Hall standards.

Larry Walker – 318, 44^th best in right field.

Fred McGriff – 316, 36^th best among first basemen. That comparison to opposing hitters I was talking about with Vizquel? McGriff has a -223 on that, the worst career total for any first baseman.

Manny Ramirez – 449. Ramirez managed to outslug his awful defensive numbers, and earn a score that got him into my Hall in 2017.

Jeff Kent – 402. Kent has been among the top 5 runners-up for five straight years, and will be there again in 2020-22. I think he’ll make it in the 2024-26 timeframe, but it depends on how some of the currently active players ahead of him (Pujols, Mauer, Bautista, Cano) spread out their retirements. The longer they hold on, the better for Kent.

Billy Wagner – 337. Ranks 8^th among relievers but has no shot.

Gary Sheffield – 436. Made my Hall in 2016.

Scott Rolen – 426. Made my Hall this year.

Sammy Sosa – 422. Made my Hall this year, his sixth on the ballot.

Andruw Jones – 361. 17^th ranked center fielder, better than a couple of center fielders (Cy Seymour and Duke Snider) who did get in.

Johan Santana – 417. Santana was my first runner-up this year. He’ll be first runner-up again next year, when two first-time players (Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay) step ahead of him, and then he joins my Hall in 2020. He had a short, sharp career – I give him at least a 7.8 WARP for five straight seasons, which is more than I can say for, oh, Sandy Koufax or Dizzy Dean, both of whom are in my Hall and the real Hall. And not even 5% of the writers would give him their vote.

Jamie Moyer – 329. Has a score of 311 just from his seasons after age 33, which is 15^th all-time. And special to me, since he was the last player older than I was playing in the major leagues.

Hideki Matsui – 223.

Kerry Wood – 231.

Chris Carpenter – 298.

Livan Hernandez – 243.

Carlos Lee – 227.

Carlos Zambrano – 284.

Brad Lidge – 208.

Kevin Millwood – 253.

Aubrey Huff – 262.

Orlando Hudson – 252.

Jason Isringhausen – 178.

in translated statistics.

EQA  .260

BA  .265, OBA .335, SLG .415, OPS .750

For 650 PA, it comes out to about 579 AB, 153 H, 29 DB, 3 TP, 17 HR, 55 BB, 108 SO, 10 SB, 5 CS, 80 R, 76 RBI, and 74 EQR.

For pitchers, 198 IP, 198 H, 22 HR, 66 BB, 132 SO, 110 R, 99 ER, 4.50 ERA