Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Jul 2 07:52:12 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.4 90.2 85.7 80.6 68.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 48 37 .616 95.2 66.8 72.15970 25.71870 97.87840 -0.41810 .19621 Blue Jays 47 38 .517 86.5 75.5 9.19240 59.46070 68.65310 5.35810 15.59510 Rays 47 39 .552 88.7 73.3 16.46220 65.41550 81.87770 -2.55040 -4.28310 Red Sox 42 44 .536 82.4 79.6 2.18400 35.02380 37.20780 .10920 -2.83680 Orioles 37 48 .418 68.4 93.6 .00170 .23710 .23880 -0.15720 .05870
Average wins by position in AL Central: 97.4 81.8 77.1 72.2 57.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 53 32 .566 97.4 64.6 98.52480 .98780 99.51260 .04370 1.07320 Guardians 40 43 .432 75.0 87.0 .20330 4.70080 4.90410 -1.42450 -7.67460 Twins 40 45 .485 78.0 84.0 .64660 11.90180 12.54840 -4.51000 -1.13680 Royals 40 46 .490 78.1 83.9 .62530 12.06100 12.68630 2.07950 -9.09380 White Sox 28 57 .390 58.0 104.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00030
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.8 85.8 80.7 74.3 65.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 51 34 .536 93.2 68.8 82.64430 12.90500 95.54930 .04450 4.34200 Mariners 44 41 .512 84.1 77.9 11.16300 39.01880 50.18180 -5.54150 -0.53570 Angels 42 42 .423 74.9 87.1 .44320 4.30270 4.74590 1.11990 1.90700 Rangers 42 44 .521 82.0 80.0 5.74760 28.20610 33.95370 5.82390 2.34350 Athletics 36 52 .407 66.1 95.9 .00190 .06020 .06210 .02290 .04540 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.8 87.5 87.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.1 88.2 79.2 73.0 66.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 50 35 .529 90.8 71.2 50.51970 32.11880 82.63850 .53300 11.29110 Mets 48 37 .559 91.1 70.9 48.25910 34.98860 83.24770 .97501 .33131 Marlins 38 45 .452 73.3 88.7 .13710 .86910 1.00620 .30050 .94830 Braves 38 46 .509 78.0 84.0 1.07780 5.06180 6.13960 -2.07800 -9.89760 Nationals 35 49 .428 67.6 94.4 .00630 .03530 .04160 .00550 .00910
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.0 89.3 85.1 80.8 74.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 50 35 .583 95.1 66.9 76.62840 18.52140 95.14980 1.73721 13.15840 Brewers 47 37 .516 85.9 76.1 9.14470 38.80980 47.95450 -0.89660 8.91070 Cardinals 47 40 .535 86.8 75.2 11.35970 43.33110 54.69080 -2.05340 .27430 Reds 44 41 .511 82.4 79.6 2.73770 20.32330 23.06100 -0.63920 -6.07570 Pirates 37 50 .512 75.7 86.3 .12950 2.15070 2.28020 .35080 1.99920
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.0 88.7 84.1 79.3 46.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 54 32 .555 96.5 65.5 86.33570 11.02280 97.35850 .81070 6.21899 Padres 45 39 .521 86.2 75.8 7.74710 42.45100 50.19810 -0.11050 5.63730 Giants 45 41 .500 82.5 79.5 2.64170 21.35580 23.99750 -5.10370 -26.13930 Diamondbacks 43 42 .527 83.9 78.1 3.27550 28.96050 32.23600 6.16870 -6.66610 Rockies 19 66 .358 46.5 115.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.9 89.1 86.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
