Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Sep 2 07:52:28 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.8 92.4 87.7 81.4 78.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 83 55 .570 96.5 65.5 84.42810 15.57190 100.00000 .00000 .00080 Yankees 79 60 .574 92.6 69.4 15.09260 84.90240 99.99500 .00520 .03440 Red Sox 75 64 .549 87.8 74.2 .47930 98.24700 98.72630 -0.46410 -0.81990 Orioles 69 70 .482 79.7 82.3 .00000 17.15890 17.15890 -6.92040 4.17260 Blue Jays 68 71 .494 80.1 81.9 .00000 20.56530 20.56530 -7.20380 2.37170
Average wins by position in AL Central: 86.0 82.1 78.3 75.4 72.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 73 65 .502 85.6 76.4 79.91510 13.35670 93.27180 3.04050 7.41759 Guardians 70 68 .494 82.3 79.7 18.85890 38.16140 57.02030 10.73630 2.93850 Twins 67 72 .474 77.8 84.2 1.05290 3.91590 4.96880 1.64220 -1.93320 Tigers 63 75 .521 75.8 86.2 .17090 .73420 .90510 -0.99960 -9.62340 Royals 62 77 .451 72.4 89.6 .00220 .01620 .01840 -0.02630 -0.04310
Average wins by position in AL west: 82.0 79.6 76.7 64.3 61.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 70 69 .452 80.8 81.2 50.37570 2.92490 53.30060 -10.80860 15.15710 Rangers 69 70 .472 80.1 81.9 37.90210 3.58910 41.49120 6.58840 2.74440 Mariners 65 74 .466 77.5 84.5 11.72220 .85610 12.57830 4.41020 -22.41740 Angels 53 86 .453 63.4 98.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 Athletics 53 86 .380 62.2 99.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.4 87.8 87.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.2 89.8 82.2 77.3 72.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 82 57 .532 93.8 68.2 80.68120 19.29300 99.97420 -0.00080 .33320 Phillies 79 60 .506 90.2 71.8 19.31190 79.34960 98.66150 2.07550 21.51730 Marlins 70 69 .550 82.1 79.9 .00690 14.07240 14.07930 5.25230 -2.67200 Nationals 67 74 .502 77.3 84.7 .00000 .15120 .15120 .07890 .01580 Mets 62 77 .477 72.6 89.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00030 -0.01990
Average wins by position in NL Central: 100.0 90.0 81.5 78.6 73.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 86 53 .615 100.0 62.0 99.46750 .53250 100.00000 .00010 .00000 Cubs 78 61 .569 90.0 72.0 .53250 97.39760 97.93010 -0.42000 -0.70840 Cardinals 69 70 .480 79.6 82.4 .00000 1.75540 1.75540 .99050 -0.80750 Pirates 68 71 .543 80.4 81.6 .00000 3.48810 3.48810 1.36340 -0.46470 Reds 66 73 .420 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00390 .00390 .00150 .00240
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.2 85.7 82.8 67.7 62.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 82 56 .605 97.2 64.8 99.97210 .02730 99.99940 -0.00031 .00000 Padres 73 66 .502 84.5 77.5 .01970 46.41280 46.43250 -3.75760 -10.79580 Diamondbacks 73 67 .490 84.0 78.0 .00820 37.51620 37.52440 -5.58320 -6.40040 Giants 57 82 .479 67.6 94.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 53 86 .397 62.3 99.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.3 88.8 85.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
