Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Jul 2 07:52:12 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.4 90.2 85.7 80.6 68.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           48   37   .616   95.2   66.8   72.15970   25.71870   97.87840       -0.41810    .19621
Blue Jays         47   38   .517   86.5   75.5    9.19240   59.46070   68.65310        5.35810  15.59510
Rays              47   39   .552   88.7   73.3   16.46220   65.41550   81.87770       -2.55040  -4.28310
Red Sox           42   44   .536   82.4   79.6    2.18400   35.02380   37.20780         .10920  -2.83680
Orioles           37   48   .418   68.4   93.6     .00170     .23710     .23880       -0.15720    .05870

Average wins by position in AL Central:  97.4 81.8 77.1 72.2 57.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            53   32   .566   97.4   64.6   98.52480     .98780   99.51260         .04370   1.07320
Guardians         40   43   .432   75.0   87.0     .20330    4.70080    4.90410       -1.42450  -7.67460
Twins             40   45   .485   78.0   84.0     .64660   11.90180   12.54840       -4.51000  -1.13680
Royals            40   46   .490   78.1   83.9     .62530   12.06100   12.68630        2.07950  -9.09380
White Sox         28   57   .390   58.0  104.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00030

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.8 85.8 80.7 74.3 65.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            51   34   .536   93.2   68.8   82.64430   12.90500   95.54930         .04450   4.34200
Mariners          44   41   .512   84.1   77.9   11.16300   39.01880   50.18180       -5.54150  -0.53570
Angels            42   42   .423   74.9   87.1     .44320    4.30270    4.74590        1.11990   1.90700
Rangers           42   44   .521   82.0   80.0    5.74760   28.20610   33.95370        5.82390   2.34350
Athletics         36   52   .407   66.1   95.9     .00190     .06020     .06210         .02290    .04540

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  90.8 87.5 87.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.1 88.2 79.2 73.0 66.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          50   35   .529   90.8   71.2   50.51970   32.11880   82.63850         .53300  11.29110
Mets              48   37   .559   91.1   70.9   48.25910   34.98860   83.24770         .97501    .33131
Marlins           38   45   .452   73.3   88.7     .13710     .86910    1.00620         .30050    .94830
Braves            38   46   .509   78.0   84.0    1.07780    5.06180    6.13960       -2.07800  -9.89760
Nationals         35   49   .428   67.6   94.4     .00630     .03530     .04160         .00550    .00910

Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.0 89.3 85.1 80.8 74.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              50   35   .583   95.1   66.9   76.62840   18.52140   95.14980        1.73721  13.15840
Brewers           47   37   .516   85.9   76.1    9.14470   38.80980   47.95450       -0.89660   8.91070
Cardinals         47   40   .535   86.8   75.2   11.35970   43.33110   54.69080       -2.05340    .27430
Reds              44   41   .511   82.4   79.6    2.73770   20.32330   23.06100       -0.63920  -6.07570
Pirates           37   50   .512   75.7   86.3     .12950    2.15070    2.28020         .35080   1.99920

Average wins by position in NL West:  97.0 88.7 84.1 79.3 46.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           54   32   .555   96.5   65.5   86.33570   11.02280   97.35850         .81070   6.21899
Padres            45   39   .521   86.2   75.8    7.74710   42.45100   50.19810       -0.11050   5.63730
Giants            45   41   .500   82.5   79.5    2.64170   21.35580   23.99750       -5.10370 -26.13930
Diamondbacks      43   42   .527   83.9   78.1    3.27550   28.96050   32.23600        6.16870  -6.66610
Rockies           19   66   .358   46.5  115.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.9 89.1 86.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.