Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Jul 26 07:51:30 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.8 93.0 87.6 78.4 71.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 61 41 .590 96.3 65.7 64.45510 34.37310 98.82820 .36660 .46920 Yankees 60 44 .570 93.4 68.6 28.99030 66.33390 95.32420 .17001 -1.46770 Red Sox 54 47 .573 88.4 73.6 6.53920 64.47440 71.01360 .26310 -13.41600 Rays 52 51 .467 78.1 83.9 .01520 3.27710 3.29230 1.19950 1.63320 Blue Jays 46 56 .443 71.7 90.3 .00020 .07320 .07340 -0.10460 -0.17860
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.0 88.8 84.9 79.4 47.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 61 41 .494 89.7 72.3 40.04610 39.90800 79.95410 -3.98750 -1.90980 Twins 56 45 .557 90.3 71.7 46.57300 36.58900 83.16200 -0.54819 2.64301 Royals 56 47 .515 85.8 76.2 12.42940 33.80480 46.23420 .38610 11.97770 Tigers 51 53 .497 80.3 81.7 .95150 7.62150 8.57300 1.70880 1.67940 White Sox 27 78 .369 47.8 114.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 86.9 83.0 79.1 73.0 67.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 53 49 .514 83.6 78.4 36.08980 5.60100 41.69080 -0.83830 8.10500 Mariners 53 51 .539 84.2 77.8 46.47630 4.69730 51.17360 -1.27360 -18.75350 Rangers 51 52 .502 80.7 81.3 16.85180 3.17470 20.02650 2.94480 8.98410 Angels 45 58 .454 72.6 89.4 .54970 .07080 .62050 -0.30010 .20820 Athletics 42 63 .451 68.0 94.0 .03240 .00120 .03360 .01340 .02580 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.3 89.8 89.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.1 88.6 83.3 74.2 59.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 64 38 .587 98.9 63.1 95.29110 4.62350 99.91460 -0.00990 -0.04180 Braves 54 47 .535 87.0 75.0 3.31820 70.33390 73.65210 -2.17530 -17.82060 Mets 54 48 .522 84.9 77.1 1.38870 53.68260 55.07130 3.05310 6.98820 Nationals 47 56 .460 74.3 87.7 .00200 1.36450 1.36650 -0.78710 -1.57870 Marlins 37 66 .389 59.3 102.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.3 84.7 81.4 78.6 75.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 59 43 .554 93.1 68.9 92.64550 4.74720 97.39270 -0.07100 3.27990 Cardinals 53 49 .479 81.6 80.4 3.51140 23.22140 26.73280 -0.88570 -1.92000 Pirates 52 50 .458 78.9 83.1 .94210 10.57730 11.51940 -0.73320 1.69170 Reds 49 53 .514 80.1 81.9 2.03890 16.25080 18.28970 -0.66900 -5.01430 Cubs 49 55 .510 79.5 82.5 .86210 10.98750 11.84960 -0.04970 -11.94000
Average wins by position in NL West: 96.0 87.2 82.0 75.9 60.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 62 42 .582 95.8 66.2 92.59950 6.88300 99.48250 .11100 .84610 Padres 55 50 .534 86.3 75.7 6.10460 62.19350 68.29810 4.61660 24.59230 Diamondbacks 53 50 .493 82.4 79.6 1.26180 31.13350 32.39530 -1.19830 6.99010 Giants 49 55 .464 76.6 85.4 .03410 4.00130 4.03540 -1.20140 -6.07290 Rockies 38 65 .390 60.4 101.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.1 87.2 84.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
