Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Jul 12 07:52:17 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.8 91.0 83.0 78.3 73.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 56 37 .564 95.4 66.6 67.53540 32.07900 99.61440 .16100 .41320 Yankees 53 42 .578 92.1 69.9 31.34690 66.81460 98.16150 .49470 .90370 Red Sox 45 48 .528 81.3 80.7 .90360 45.54290 46.44650 4.78260 28.31570 Blue Jays 45 50 .487 77.5 84.5 .15150 19.37190 19.52340 -4.43310 -3.49160 Orioles 45 51 .485 76.3 85.7 .06260 12.30300 12.36560 1.91900 -3.82580
Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.0 83.1 79.8 76.1 67.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 50 46 .487 83.4 78.6 37.94790 26.06070 64.00860 5.07310 -3.91760 White Sox 49 45 .499 83.3 78.7 36.83300 26.24980 63.08280 1.59800 -8.77220 Twins 47 49 .483 79.3 82.7 11.69550 18.25310 29.94860 2.05070 7.38080 Tigers 44 51 .530 79.8 82.2 13.48420 20.49360 33.97780 -5.00820 13.53480 Royals 38 58 .438 67.4 94.6 .03940 .15640 .19580 -0.17610 -0.21400
Average wins by position in AL west: 84.7 80.3 76.3 70.8 66.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 48 47 .500 82.1 79.9 48.82970 11.36490 60.19460 -6.96550 -5.42530 Mariners 47 49 .505 80.8 81.2 36.70900 12.74900 49.45800 -4.12930 -18.80260 Astros 47 50 .457 77.7 84.3 13.41540 7.95540 21.37080 5.08960 1.38710 Athletics 41 54 .414 69.2 92.8 .64250 .39530 1.03780 -0.29920 -6.77800 Angels 38 58 .461 68.5 93.5 .40340 .21040 .61380 -0.15730 -0.70820 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.1 85.0 84.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.9 88.2 83.8 79.3 68.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 54 40 .535 90.4 71.6 51.32330 36.29480 87.61810 -2.73530 -4.00760 Phillies 53 43 .467 83.0 79.0 6.15490 27.82320 33.97810 1.55360 -13.25830 Marlins 52 44 .564 89.2 72.8 39.01390 43.37180 82.38570 -4.67371 11.43500 Nationals 48 48 .501 81.5 80.5 3.50520 20.11770 23.62290 -5.47390 -5.54620 Mets 40 56 .451 68.3 93.7 .00270 .04440 .04710 -0.03780 -0.01630
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.8 89.1 84.8 80.6 71.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 59 36 .608 99.7 62.3 95.27440 4.56060 99.83500 -0.05830 .59870 Cubs 53 42 .521 86.4 75.6 2.81360 60.47540 63.28900 .30860 1.35420 Cardinals 50 44 .501 84.0 78.0 .82760 41.63810 42.46570 1.08620 -4.62010 Pirates 49 47 .550 84.0 78.0 1.08420 41.58550 42.66970 5.60280 6.29530 Reds 43 51 .437 71.3 90.7 .00020 .40070 .40090 -0.19840 .08400
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.7 82.2 77.0 71.9 65.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 61 35 .620 101.7 60.3 99.89440 .09080 99.98520 -0.00880 -0.01250 Diamondbacks 48 47 .477 80.4 81.6 .09230 17.31920 17.41150 4.41640 8.51040 Padres 47 48 .459 77.4 84.6 .01270 5.72640 5.73910 .25720 -0.07160 Giants 40 55 .483 72.7 89.3 .00060 .54680 .54740 -0.03030 -0.74050 Rockies 39 58 .416 65.8 96.2 .00000 .00460 .00460 -0.00830 -0.00450 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.6 87.8 85.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
