Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Oct 8 07:52:35 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.0 94.0 89.0 77.0 75.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 94 68 .554 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 94 68 .618 94.0 68.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 89 73 .566 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 77 85 .529 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 75 87 .439 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.0 87.0 82.0 70.0 60.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 88 74 .466 88.0 74.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 87 75 .522 87.0 75.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 82 80 .512 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 70 92 .462 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 60 102 .414 60.0 102.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 90.0 87.0 81.0 76.0 72.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mariners 90 72 .547 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 87 75 .502 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 81 81 .521 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 76 86 .471 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 72 90 .400 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.0 89.0 88.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.0 83.0 79.0 76.0 66.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 96 66 .573 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 83 79 .558 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 79 83 .462 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 76 86 .488 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 66 96 .383 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.0 92.0 83.0 78.0 71.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 97 65 .585 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 92 70 .587 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 83 79 .510 83.0 79.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 78 84 .457 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 71 91 .474 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.0 90.0 81.0 80.0 43.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 93 69 .569 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 90 72 .543 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 81 81 .484 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 80 82 .515 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 43 119 .291 43.0 119.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.0 90.0 82.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
