Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Aug 7 07:52:17 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.1 90.5 87.1 80.8 70.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 68 48 .556 92.6 69.4 57.80510 38.86420 96.66930 1.84810 2.47710 Red Sox 64 52 .560 89.2 72.8 19.35100 64.98540 84.33640 -4.36430 9.65520 Yankees 61 54 .596 89.6 72.4 22.50290 64.20760 86.71050 2.72160 -7.75230 Rays 57 59 .532 81.0 81.0 .34100 10.41380 10.75480 1.28540 -10.77170 Orioles 52 63 .423 70.9 91.1 .00000 .01390 .01390 .00430 -0.05230
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.4 83.7 80.1 75.9 62.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 66 50 .542 91.2 70.8 91.76960 3.61060 95.38020 -1.80740 -2.64760 Guardians 59 55 .464 81.0 81.0 2.99560 9.10650 12.10210 3.16800 6.81760 Royals 57 58 .510 81.8 80.2 4.79980 10.44790 15.24770 3.84290 2.00510 Twins 54 60 .483 77.1 84.9 .43500 1.49170 1.92670 .52940 -0.74710 White Sox 42 72 .419 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 91.0 87.3 83.4 75.8 70.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 64 51 .527 88.9 73.1 47.40240 34.17930 81.58170 -3.31200 -3.83089 Mariners 62 53 .545 88.2 73.8 42.08060 35.31660 77.39720 2.69240 16.66860 Rangers 60 56 .534 84.5 77.5 10.44360 26.98840 37.43200 -6.35210 -10.14910 Angels 55 60 .438 75.1 86.9 .07300 .36260 .43560 -0.23760 -1.63550 Athletics 50 66 .460 71.2 90.8 .00040 .01150 .01190 -0.01870 -0.03710 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.9 88.5 88.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.2 86.7 79.7 71.3 63.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 65 49 .547 91.4 70.6 78.72120 15.30830 94.02950 -1.24990 3.89000 Mets 63 52 .524 87.1 74.9 20.24160 47.12210 67.36370 -5.71420 -21.02460 Marlins 56 57 .478 79.8 82.2 1.03510 5.30960 6.34470 2.12550 3.23750 Braves 47 66 .487 71.2 90.8 .00210 .01970 .02180 -0.01990 -0.06250 Nationals 45 68 .394 63.9 98.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00050
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.6 93.0 84.1 79.3 70.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 70 44 .555 96.1 65.9 60.78410 38.70100 99.48510 .37050 3.99880 Cubs 66 48 .581 94.5 67.5 38.98540 59.80930 98.79470 .89390 -0.07110 Reds 60 55 .507 83.0 79.0 .19940 22.23740 22.43680 -4.90630 -0.84320 Cardinals 58 58 .492 80.3 81.7 .03110 6.92700 6.95810 2.16880 -1.26630 Pirates 49 66 .467 70.9 91.1 .00000 .00850 .00850 -0.00500 -0.12190
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.7 89.2 82.7 77.3 44.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 66 49 .536 92.2 69.8 61.92710 34.18570 96.11280 -0.69350 .95190 Padres 64 51 .536 90.4 71.6 36.60540 53.63140 90.23680 4.00260 5.32110 Giants 58 57 .495 82.3 79.7 1.40980 14.92600 16.33580 3.54690 7.29790 Diamondbacks 54 61 .500 78.0 84.0 .05770 1.81400 1.87170 -0.51940 -1.30710 Rockies 30 84 .309 44.4 117.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.5 89.6 86.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
