Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Sep 18 07:54:54 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.6 91.7 88.1 79.1 75.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 89 63 .568 94.5 67.5 88.63180 11.36820 100.00000 .00000 .11800 Yankees 85 67 .606 91.7 70.3 11.03870 88.89940 99.93810 .08691 .78410 Red Sox 83 69 .559 88.1 73.9 .32950 89.49100 89.82050 3.79180 -5.87540 Rays 74 78 .536 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00010 .00010 -0.00050 -0.68790 Orioles 72 80 .443 75.8 86.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.3 84.9 80.9 70.3 60.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 85 67 .534 90.3 71.7 97.50560 1.23610 98.74170 -0.72570 -1.23860 Guardians 80 71 .451 84.9 77.1 2.49400 12.26560 14.75960 3.82850 11.51580 Royals 76 76 .491 80.9 81.1 .00040 .02420 .02460 -0.00030 -2.46350 Twins 66 86 .457 70.3 91.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 57 96 .417 60.6 101.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 89.8 87.8 84.4 76.1 73.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 84 69 .510 88.7 73.3 40.03500 54.39250 94.42750 4.79350 18.74020 Mariners 83 69 .540 88.8 73.2 59.85610 35.45430 95.31040 -2.21030 10.63150 Rangers 79 74 .543 84.4 77.6 .10890 6.86860 6.97750 -9.56390 -31.52310 Athletics 71 81 .481 75.9 86.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 69 83 .413 73.7 88.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00110 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.7 88.7 88.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.5 83.6 76.5 74.5 65.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 91 62 .576 96.5 65.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 78 74 .554 83.6 78.4 .00000 75.17780 75.17780 -7.64830 2.81800 Marlins 72 80 .456 76.1 85.9 .00000 .00750 .00750 .00430 .00710 Braves 70 83 .482 74.8 87.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 62 91 .389 65.6 96.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.9 93.8 80.7 77.5 69.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 93 59 .590 98.9 63.1 98.79880 1.20120 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 88 64 .579 93.8 68.2 1.20120 98.79880 100.00000 .00000 .02530 Reds 76 76 .498 80.7 81.3 .00000 5.67530 5.67530 3.20800 -4.13480 Cardinals 74 79 .459 77.5 84.5 .00000 .05250 .05250 -0.06560 -0.20320 Pirates 65 88 .461 69.1 92.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.6 88.1 82.2 80.5 44.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 85 67 .562 90.4 71.6 81.39950 18.59890 99.99840 .01220 .35650 Padres 83 69 .539 88.3 73.7 18.59760 81.27160 99.86920 .61100 1.89170 Diamondbacks 77 76 .517 81.2 80.8 .00000 6.99300 6.99300 -2.86160 4.57230 Giants 76 76 .491 81.5 80.5 .00290 12.22340 12.22630 6.74000 -5.33290 Rockies 41 111 .298 44.1 117.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.8 88.1 83.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
