Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Jan 18 11:27:33 EST 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 106.3 95.4 87.1 78.4 65.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 0 0 .554 88.3 73.7 17.34610 40.77660 58.12270 Orioles 0 0 .439 69.6 92.4 1.26440 9.47790 10.74230 Rays 0 0 .529 84.5 77.5 10.81570 34.99850 45.81420 Red Sox 0 0 .566 90.8 71.2 22.02590 42.90730 64.93320 Yankees 0 0 .618 99.4 62.6 48.54790 36.39030 84.93820
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.4 85.3 77.6 69.9 59.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 0 0 .466 76.1 85.9 14.29670 10.53420 24.83090 Royals 0 0 .512 83.9 78.1 31.98290 15.35240 47.33530 Tigers 0 0 .522 85.5 76.5 36.78380 15.56350 52.34730 Twins 0 0 .462 75.2 86.8 12.60220 10.07840 22.68060 White Sox 0 0 .414 66.9 95.1 4.33440 4.26930 8.60370
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.2 87.9 79.9 71.6 59.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Angels 0 0 .400 64.2 97.8 1.91240 3.51840 5.43080 Astros 0 0 .502 82.3 79.7 20.01110 19.85690 39.86800 Athletics 0 0 .471 76.5 85.5 10.58820 13.67760 24.26580 Mariners 0 0 .547 89.3 72.7 41.10770 21.07860 62.18630 Rangers 0 0 .521 84.7 77.3 26.38060 21.52010 47.90070 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 97.4 91.5 91.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 101.1 89.8 80.4 71.0 57.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 0 0 .488 79.1 82.9 10.75550 17.53040 28.28590 Marlins 0 0 .462 75.1 86.9 6.42940 12.36920 18.79860 Mets 0 0 .558 90.6 71.4 35.88420 26.71440 62.59860 Nationals 0 0 .383 62.0 100.0 .85920 2.32610 3.18530 Phillies 0 0 .573 93.3 68.7 46.07170 24.67190 70.74360
Average wins by position in NL Central: 104.0 92.8 83.9 75.3 64.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 0 0 .585 94.6 67.4 40.01700 33.23530 73.25230 Cardinals 0 0 .457 73.1 88.9 3.20140 11.56140 14.76280 Cubs 0 0 .587 95.0 67.0 41.34430 32.90860 74.25290 Pirates 0 0 .474 75.9 86.1 4.80580 15.34830 20.15410 Reds 0 0 .510 82.0 80.0 10.63150 25.45070 36.08220
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.5 90.8 82.0 71.6 46.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 0 0 .515 84.3 77.7 17.87000 24.83300 42.70300 Dodgers 0 0 .569 93.4 68.6 44.60550 26.08430 70.68980 Giants 0 0 .484 78.9 83.1 9.44680 17.91000 27.35680 Padres 0 0 .543 88.8 73.2 28.05440 28.96420 57.01860 Rockies 0 0 .291 46.6 115.4 .02330 .09220 .11550 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 97.7 92.2 88.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
