Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Aug 28 07:52:20 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.9 91.1 88.4 79.6 71.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 78 56 .553 92.7 69.3 56.09590 43.34370 99.43960 .03940 .31000 Red Sox 74 60 .567 89.7 72.3 15.37890 80.19330 95.57220 .25140 15.64030 Yankees 73 60 .610 91.0 71.0 28.52270 69.60960 98.13230 .11970 -0.59150 Rays 64 69 .533 79.5 82.5 .00250 2.10250 2.10500 -2.41040 -3.43240 Orioles 60 73 .436 71.6 90.4 .00000 .00010 .00010 -0.00180 -0.11800
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.5 84.0 78.7 73.4 59.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 78 57 .542 92.5 69.5 97.74910 1.71960 99.46870 -0.34330 -0.33691 Royals 69 65 .513 83.8 78.2 2.18790 23.58590 25.77380 2.00680 -5.18410 Guardians 66 66 .433 78.7 83.3 .06290 1.43360 1.49650 .02530 -7.09870 Twins 60 73 .463 73.7 88.3 .00010 .00790 .00800 -0.01740 -0.31540 White Sox 48 85 .423 59.9 102.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 89.3 86.2 82.0 76.7 73.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 73 60 .505 87.7 74.3 46.10680 37.41420 83.52100 -0.89760 -0.11110 Mariners 72 62 .525 87.5 74.5 51.02640 31.07680 82.10320 .98901 2.87830 Rangers 68 67 .530 82.2 79.8 2.85600 9.40910 12.26510 .34130 -0.89930 Athletics 63 72 .473 75.7 86.3 .00600 .06910 .07510 .00610 -0.00580 Angels 62 71 .423 74.5 87.5 .00480 .03460 .03940 -0.10850 -0.73540 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.2 88.8 88.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.2 87.4 77.2 74.0 64.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 76 57 .552 91.9 70.1 85.82040 13.70680 99.52720 -0.14440 -0.11810 Mets 72 61 .560 87.8 74.2 14.17610 76.21380 90.38990 4.79340 25.38770 Marlins 62 71 .471 76.0 86.0 .00300 .15750 .16050 -0.29410 -0.97800 Braves 61 72 .492 75.3 86.7 .00050 .03400 .03450 .00510 -0.19890 Nationals 53 80 .392 64.6 97.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.0 93.4 82.0 77.3 71.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 83 51 .577 98.9 63.1 91.56690 8.43290 99.99980 .00000 .00150 Cubs 76 57 .577 93.5 68.5 8.43290 91.41070 99.84360 -0.05180 .17660 Reds 68 66 .504 81.5 80.5 .00020 6.93020 6.93040 -4.27150 -24.42520 Cardinals 65 69 .475 77.6 84.4 .00000 .35050 .35050 -0.54630 -2.75530 Pirates 59 75 .472 71.9 90.1 .00000 .00030 .00030 -0.00050 -0.00050
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.0 90.9 81.4 77.4 46.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 77 57 .546 92.8 69.2 57.85190 41.89770 99.74960 .09610 1.58910 Padres 75 59 .555 92.1 69.9 42.12780 57.43430 99.56210 -0.08240 1.25771 Giants 65 68 .493 80.5 81.5 .01890 3.00680 3.02570 .46110 1.02530 Diamondbacks 65 69 .500 78.3 83.7 .00140 .42450 .42590 .03530 -0.96190 Rockies 38 95 .304 46.5 115.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.9 90.7 86.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
