Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Oct 2 07:51:25 AM EDT 2023
Average wins by position in AL East: 101.0 99.0 89.0 82.0 78.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 101 61 .554 101.0 61.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 99 63 .619 99.0 63.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 89 73 .550 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 27.17210 2.76690 Yankees 82 80 .500 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 78 84 .502 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.0 78.0 76.0 61.0 56.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 87 75 .564 87.0 75.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 78 84 .475 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Guardians 76 86 .462 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 61 101 .370 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 56 106 .411 56.0 106.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 90.0 90.0 88.0 73.0 50.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 90 72 .545 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 53.26190 Rangers 90 72 .589 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 1.58400 Mariners 88 74 .563 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -27.17210 -57.61280 Angels 73 89 .469 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 50 112 .347 50.0 112.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 99.0 90.0 90.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 104.0 90.0 84.0 74.0 71.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 104 58 .628 104.0 58.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 90 72 .577 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 84 77 .484 84.0 77.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 54.29660 Mets 74 87 .480 74.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 71 91 .394 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.0 83.0 82.0 76.0 71.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 92 70 .529 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 83 79 .545 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -60.74060 Reds 82 80 .462 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -5.66540 Pirates 76 86 .449 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 71 91 .443 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.0 84.0 82.0 79.0 59.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 100 62 .609 100.0 62.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 84 78 .498 84.0 78.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 12.23760 Padres 82 80 .554 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.10990 Giants 79 83 .475 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.01830 Rockies 59 103 .355 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.0 84.5 83.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
