Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue May 26 07:52:21 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.8 92.1 82.5 75.8 68.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 34 17 .549 95.5 66.5 48.27580 48.95300 97.22880 -0.35381 .48420 Yankees 32 22 .585 95.7 66.3 49.14620 48.38190 97.52810 .54900 -0.32940 Blue Jays 25 29 .507 80.2 81.8 1.89430 42.08230 43.97660 -2.26160 16.05900 Orioles 24 30 .452 72.3 89.7 .13900 9.93510 10.07410 1.67560 1.80320 Red Sox 22 30 .492 75.5 86.5 .54470 19.59130 20.13600 1.97750 -0.45090
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.8 82.6 78.2 73.9 68.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 32 24 .495 85.5 76.5 53.68300 19.63800 73.32100 -5.58920 4.64430 White Sox 27 26 .472 78.8 83.2 17.16290 19.43570 36.59860 5.94210 -5.17920 Twins 26 28 .493 79.4 82.6 18.63860 21.14100 39.77960 -0.77800 12.83710 Royals 22 32 .476 73.8 88.2 4.90580 9.68580 14.59160 .22440 -9.75190 Tigers 21 33 .487 74.3 87.7 5.60970 10.43950 16.04920 .80680 -14.60650
Average wins by position in AL west: 86.4 80.8 76.4 71.8 66.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 27 27 .460 77.4 84.6 19.17360 12.53100 31.70460 -5.89060 .52290 Mariners 26 29 .498 79.8 82.2 29.76350 15.09330 44.85680 7.84410 -1.17590 Rangers 24 29 .517 81.7 80.3 41.49880 14.61100 56.10980 -8.57650 -7.97290 Astros 24 31 .446 72.2 89.8 5.67690 5.18260 10.85950 4.02990 6.49540 Angels 20 34 .462 70.2 91.8 3.88720 3.29850 7.18570 .40030 -3.37940 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.4 85.5 85.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 100.4 86.9 80.8 75.2 67.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 36 18 .591 100.1 61.9 92.46130 5.77810 98.23940 -0.12250 1.33270 Nationals 28 27 .507 82.8 79.2 3.85720 33.26060 37.11780 7.88360 21.18890 Phillies 27 27 .471 76.5 85.5 .74860 10.60340 11.35200 .32440 -9.10720 Marlins 26 29 .523 81.6 80.4 2.82750 28.09300 30.92050 2.10530 1.41510 Mets 22 32 .456 70.0 92.0 .10540 1.65710 1.76250 -0.82950 -4.84210
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.4 90.0 84.6 79.3 71.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 31 20 .588 96.8 65.2 72.32030 22.09240 94.41270 2.67519 9.66759 Cardinals 29 23 .490 82.3 79.7 5.07320 29.64550 34.71870 -7.79770 -7.52930 Cubs 29 25 .540 87.1 74.9 14.29370 47.25070 61.54440 -3.80610 -23.39500 Reds 28 25 .431 73.1 88.9 .35720 4.71260 5.06980 .30160 1.45520 Pirates 28 26 .533 84.4 77.6 7.95560 38.40550 46.36110 2.23630 6.45370
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.5 87.2 79.8 71.8 61.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 34 20 .624 102.2 59.8 94.20230 4.97370 99.17600 .05580 2.63060 Padres 31 22 .475 81.5 80.5 1.72990 28.49560 30.22550 -5.28460 -10.44830 Diamondbacks 29 24 .512 84.3 77.7 3.98960 41.58130 45.57090 3.61290 12.51450 Giants 22 32 .464 72.2 89.8 .07750 3.33990 3.41740 -1.34730 -0.62010 Rockies 20 35 .408 62.9 99.1 .00070 .11060 .11130 -0.00740 -0.71630 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.5 88.8 85.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
