Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Jul 12 07:53:16 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.6 88.0 82.6 78.8 74.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 56 37 .501 89.5 72.5 41.99750 53.69950 95.69700 Yankees 53 42 .562 90.5 71.5 54.73020 42.96580 97.69600 Red Sox 45 48 .530 81.0 81.0 2.29120 41.03200 43.32320 Blue Jays 45 50 .503 77.9 84.1 .52120 18.02190 18.54310 Orioles 45 51 .513 77.8 84.2 .45990 16.83070 17.29060
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.2 81.6 78.7 75.5 69.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 50 46 .485 82.7 79.3 46.34450 15.79830 62.14280 White Sox 49 45 .469 80.5 81.5 25.09060 15.98480 41.07540 Twins 47 49 .473 77.7 84.3 9.84270 8.91880 18.76150 Tigers 44 51 .529 79.5 82.5 18.49860 13.75780 32.25640 Royals 38 58 .482 70.0 92.0 .22360 .28230 .50590
Average wins by position in AL west: 86.3 82.4 79.0 73.8 67.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 48 47 .504 81.5 80.5 24.86630 24.07270 48.93900 Mariners 47 49 .572 84.2 77.8 52.00960 21.39240 73.40200 Astros 47 50 .527 81.2 80.8 21.56430 23.93490 45.49920 Athletics 41 54 .501 74.2 87.8 1.53340 3.25390 4.78730 Angels 38 58 .459 67.4 94.6 .02640 .05420 .08060 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 88.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 84.3 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 82.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 91.6 87.1 82.5 77.9 73.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 54 40 .524 89.5 72.5 53.94880 36.17600 90.12480 Phillies 53 43 .544 88.3 73.7 39.84760 45.08700 84.93460 Marlins 52 44 .469 82.3 79.7 5.44130 29.17440 34.61570 Nationals 48 48 .452 77.8 84.2 .67320 7.04270 7.71590 Mets 40 56 .533 74.3 87.7 .08910 1.28900 1.37810
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.9 88.0 83.9 80.2 74.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 59 36 .572 96.8 65.2 93.31810 6.43730 99.75540 Cubs 53 42 .508 86.3 75.7 4.80550 66.49330 71.29880 Cardinals 50 44 .488 82.5 79.5 .81180 36.19400 37.00580 Pirates 49 47 .526 82.7 79.3 1.05650 37.87770 38.93420 Reds 43 51 .480 74.7 87.3 .00810 1.99450 2.00260
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.7 82.4 77.2 72.8 66.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 61 35 .611 100.7 61.3 99.90620 .08690 99.99310 Diamondbacks 48 47 .495 81.3 80.7 .08860 26.63370 26.72230 Padres 47 48 .444 76.5 85.5 .00460 4.30340 4.30800 Giants 40 55 .514 74.1 87.9 .00060 1.20480 1.20540 Rockies 39 58 .424 66.6 95.4 .00000 .00530 .00530 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
