Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Aug 28 07:53:16 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.7 91.3 87.9 79.9 76.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 79 54 .541 94.0 68.0 70.33730 29.66130 99.99860 Yankees 75 58 .554 91.4 70.6 24.29440 75.65730 99.95170 Red Sox 73 60 .551 88.6 73.4 5.36830 93.53450 98.90280 Orioles 65 69 .482 78.3 83.7 .00000 6.90430 6.90430 Blue Jays 65 70 .492 78.2 83.8 .00000 6.88000 6.88000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.3 82.4 78.9 75.9 71.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox 70 63 .487 84.0 78.0 54.07400 23.79950 77.87350 Guardians 68 66 .528 83.4 78.6 42.11220 28.86750 70.97970 Twins 64 70 .496 78.0 84.0 2.69050 4.51240 7.20290 Tigers 62 71 .517 76.9 85.1 1.11730 2.12320 3.24050 Royals 60 75 .446 71.7 90.3 .00600 .00920 .01520
Average wins by position in AL west: 83.6 81.2 78.8 65.5 62.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 67 67 .549 82.2 79.8 49.80840 9.47070 59.27910 Rangers 66 68 .535 80.7 81.3 24.25260 9.53210 33.78470 Mariners 64 70 .573 80.7 81.3 25.93900 9.04800 34.98700 Athletics 53 81 .437 64.6 97.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 52 82 .428 63.1 98.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.3 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 83.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.5 89.3 81.0 75.3 72.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 79 55 .517 93.0 69.0 77.09070 22.63450 99.72520 Phillies 74 60 .574 89.8 72.2 22.89310 72.54260 95.43570 Marlins 68 66 .475 81.0 81.0 .01620 5.41010 5.42630 Nationals 63 73 .441 74.4 87.6 .00000 .00690 .00690 Mets 60 74 .480 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00060 .00060
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.3 90.5 81.5 78.4 74.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 83 51 .562 98.2 63.8 96.32410 3.67550 99.99960 Cubs 76 58 .531 90.6 71.4 3.67590 93.82220 97.49810 Cardinals 67 68 .470 79.5 82.5 .00000 1.20890 1.20890 Pirates 65 70 .543 80.2 81.8 .00000 2.04510 2.04510 Reds 63 71 .474 74.8 87.2 .00000 .01400 .01400
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.1 87.0 83.6 67.5 63.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 80 54 .620 98.1 63.9 99.87440 .12510 99.99950 Padres 72 62 .507 86.1 75.9 .11290 63.81000 63.92290 Diamondbacks 71 64 .507 84.5 77.5 .01270 34.70450 34.71720 Giants 55 79 .450 67.1 94.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 52 82 .439 64.1 97.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.5 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
