Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Sep 14 07:53:18 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.9 92.8 88.3 81.4 77.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 90 59 .547 96.8 65.2 90.85400 9.14600 100.00000 Yankees 86 63 .544 92.8 69.2 9.12350 90.87650 100.00000 Red Sox 82 68 .558 88.3 73.7 .02250 99.95610 99.97860 Blue Jays 75 75 .510 81.3 80.7 .00000 41.51090 41.51090 Orioles 72 78 .495 77.5 84.5 .00000 1.32410 1.32410
Average wins by position in AL Central: 83.7 81.5 77.8 75.8 71.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox 76 73 .490 82.6 79.4 49.05150 22.80120 71.85270 Guardians 76 74 .533 82.6 79.4 50.70450 23.04130 73.74580 Tigers 70 79 .503 76.5 85.5 .13640 .53730 .67370 Twins 70 79 .517 77.0 85.0 .10760 .51540 .62300 Royals 66 84 .462 71.3 90.7 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 82.0 79.9 77.3 65.8 61.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 75 75 .528 81.6 80.4 70.91440 3.76880 74.68320 Rangers 74 76 .510 80.1 81.9 26.25370 6.14740 32.40110 Mariners 70 80 .578 77.5 84.5 2.83190 .37500 3.20690 Athletics 61 89 .409 65.7 96.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 56 93 .427 61.2 100.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.8 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.3 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 82.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.2 89.5 79.1 76.1 74.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 88 62 .521 94.2 67.8 97.01490 2.98480 99.99970 Phillies 83 67 .567 89.5 72.5 2.98510 94.73030 97.71540 Marlins 74 76 .452 79.0 83.0 .00000 .02370 .02370 Nationals 70 81 .440 74.7 87.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 69 80 .506 75.5 86.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.5 89.4 82.1 79.4 75.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 93 57 .583 99.5 62.5 99.99910 .00090 100.00000 Cubs 83 67 .528 89.4 72.6 .00090 97.56490 97.56580 Pirates 75 75 .548 81.7 80.3 .00000 .29650 .29650 Cardinals 74 76 .472 79.7 82.3 .00000 .00820 .00820 Reds 70 79 .438 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.8 87.9 85.0 66.4 60.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 90 59 .635 98.8 63.2 99.99740 .00260 100.00000 Padres 81 68 .517 87.6 74.4 .00260 80.11070 80.11330 Diamondbacks 79 71 .517 85.3 76.7 .00000 24.27740 24.27740 Giants 62 88 .426 66.4 95.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 55 94 .441 60.7 101.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.5 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 87.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
