Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Jun 6 07:53:06 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.1 85.6 81.2 77.4 72.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 38 23 .565 95.8 66.2 91.88570 6.34550 98.23120 Blue Jays 33 29 .486 81.7 80.3 3.46870 30.59150 34.06020 Rays 33 29 .475 80.3 81.7 1.97190 23.35330 25.32520 Red Sox 30 34 .519 80.5 81.5 2.45110 23.63470 26.08580 Orioles 25 36 .486 74.2 87.8 .22260 4.01130 4.23390
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.2 88.6 84.2 79.2 55.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 41 23 .514 92.3 69.7 62.74460 30.86170 93.60630 Twins 34 28 .527 87.9 74.1 24.44590 52.50430 76.95020 Guardians 33 28 .486 83.6 78.4 7.91050 40.06710 47.97760 Royals 33 30 .493 82.3 79.7 4.89880 33.74920 38.64800 White Sox 20 43 .364 55.5 106.5 .00020 .00000 .00020
Average wins by position in AL west: 89.4 83.9 78.5 73.1 67.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 34 28 .522 86.8 75.2 54.59720 19.32440 73.92160 Mariners 32 29 .525 84.9 77.1 37.05480 23.48650 60.54130 Rangers 29 34 .498 78.4 83.6 7.04120 9.98170 17.02290 Angels 28 33 .441 72.4 89.6 .99650 1.51920 2.51570 Athletics 24 40 .469 69.9 92.1 .31030 .56960 .87990 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.8 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.8 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.4 90.9 85.1 76.0 61.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 39 24 .541 92.4 69.6 41.23880 42.44890 83.68770 Phillies 37 25 .565 93.3 68.7 49.75580 37.97100 87.72680 Nationals 29 33 .470 76.4 85.6 .21690 2.57770 2.79460 Braves 27 34 .578 86.2 75.8 8.78850 34.74540 43.53390 Marlins 23 37 .393 61.6 100.4 .00000 .00180 .00180
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.3 87.2 81.8 75.4 67.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 39 23 .564 95.8 66.2 85.99580 8.79510 94.79090 Cardinals 34 28 .507 85.1 76.9 8.83290 27.60580 36.43870 Brewers 34 29 .504 83.3 78.7 4.93400 19.98380 24.91780 Reds 30 33 .472 75.5 86.5 .22810 1.80530 2.03340 Pirates 23 40 .462 68.7 93.3 .00920 .06540 .07460
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 91.1 85.7 80.3 46.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 38 25 .627 101.2 60.8 91.63830 7.70420 99.34250 Padres 35 26 .511 85.4 76.6 2.16050 35.71020 37.87070 Giants 35 28 .493 82.9 79.1 .82290 21.37690 22.19980 Diamondbacks 31 31 .568 89.0 73.0 5.37830 59.20820 64.58650 Rockies 12 50 .357 46.9 115.1 .00000 .00030 .00030 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 93.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 88.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
