Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Jul 18 07:53:18 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 91.7 87.4 84.0 80.7 75.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 55 41 .488 87.0 75.0 25.97580 51.13890 77.11470 Yankees 53 43 .556 90.2 71.8 61.24540 31.23990 92.48530 Red Sox 53 45 .485 83.0 79.0 6.17510 34.87710 41.05220 Rays 50 47 .510 83.0 79.0 6.38820 34.62570 41.01390 Orioles 43 52 .494 75.8 86.2 .21550 3.15770 3.37320
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.2 84.0 80.2 76.3 56.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 59 38 .515 93.0 69.0 94.35730 4.06290 98.42020 Twins 47 49 .515 81.7 80.3 3.29880 26.64460 29.94340 Royals 47 50 .486 79.3 82.7 1.08890 13.00620 14.09510 Guardians 46 49 .481 79.5 82.5 1.25500 14.20330 15.45830 White Sox 32 65 .393 56.8 105.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 91.9 86.2 80.2 75.7 70.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 56 40 .525 91.0 71.0 75.09690 20.07710 95.17400 Mariners 51 45 .531 86.5 75.5 23.10170 51.06320 74.16490 Rangers 48 49 .483 79.4 82.6 1.47540 12.44680 13.92220 Angels 47 49 .444 76.1 85.9 .30980 3.21040 3.52020 Athletics 41 57 .476 71.5 90.5 .01620 .24620 .26240 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 88.8 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.4 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.7 88.5 79.9 72.2 67.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 55 41 .563 92.3 69.7 65.76640 28.77350 94.53990 Mets 55 42 .532 89.7 72.3 33.59430 49.91670 83.51100 Marlins 44 51 .409 70.9 91.1 .00320 .05160 .05480 Braves 42 53 .560 79.8 82.2 .63590 7.34420 7.98010 Nationals 38 58 .472 69.0 93.0 .00020 .01070 .01090
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.7 89.4 84.6 79.7 69.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 57 39 .566 95.1 66.9 80.93180 17.44040 98.37220 Brewers 56 40 .514 89.0 73.0 15.72180 62.69700 78.41880 Cardinals 51 46 .512 84.6 77.4 2.87000 36.62910 39.49910 Reds 50 47 .496 80.7 81.3 .47630 11.67880 12.15510 Pirates 39 58 .467 69.6 92.4 .00010 .01810 .01820
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.9 87.1 83.3 79.4 46.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 58 39 .622 98.9 63.1 98.27810 1.56580 99.84390 Padres 52 44 .483 84.0 78.0 .74380 33.70040 34.44420 Giants 52 45 .499 83.9 78.1 .73010 32.19910 32.92920 Diamondbacks 47 50 .535 81.9 80.1 .24800 17.97460 18.22260 Rockies 22 74 .381 46.8 115.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.6 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
