Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Jun 21 07:53:21 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.9 86.6 81.8 78.1 73.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 46 29 .562 94.4 67.6 86.22620 13.11730 99.34350 Rays 42 31 .501 85.6 76.4 11.11130 67.33900 78.45030 Blue Jays 38 39 .503 79.7 82.3 1.36890 34.24890 35.61780 Orioles 36 42 .513 78.5 83.5 .78560 25.46120 26.24680 Red Sox 31 43 .530 77.1 84.9 .50800 18.46330 18.97130
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.4 80.9 77.7 74.6 70.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 41 36 .485 83.0 79.0 53.69860 12.84950 66.54810 White Sox 39 36 .469 79.6 82.4 23.83680 14.03460 37.87140 Twins 37 41 .473 76.2 85.8 8.28340 7.38340 15.66680 Tigers 32 44 .529 77.3 84.7 11.85820 10.25660 22.11480 Royals 32 45 .482 72.8 89.2 2.32300 2.66650 4.98950
Average wins by position in AL west: 88.0 83.0 79.5 75.7 67.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 39 39 .572 86.4 75.6 64.74770 20.23740 84.98510 Athletics 38 39 .501 79.9 82.1 12.41870 25.08140 37.50010 Rangers 36 40 .504 79.2 82.8 10.15390 22.39240 32.54630 Astros 36 42 .527 80.1 81.9 12.56460 26.02450 38.58910 Angels 31 47 .459 68.4 93.6 .11510 .44400 .55910 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 87.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 84.1 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 82.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.1 87.1 81.8 78.1 74.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 48 27 .524 93.2 68.8 78.82920 18.52920 97.35840 Phillies 41 35 .544 86.8 75.2 18.02690 58.58540 76.61230 Nationals 40 37 .452 78.0 84.0 .84700 13.74320 14.59020 Marlins 39 38 .469 78.3 83.7 .92710 15.19170 16.11880 Mets 34 42 .533 78.8 83.2 1.36980 17.06030 18.43010
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.9 86.2 82.3 78.8 74.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 45 29 .572 94.6 67.4 89.15490 9.24420 98.39910 Cardinals 40 34 .488 82.2 79.8 3.81020 38.14180 41.95200 Cubs 40 37 .508 82.1 79.9 3.69130 37.22030 40.91160 Pirates 38 39 .526 81.5 80.5 2.95340 33.54240 36.49580 Reds 36 39 .480 76.1 85.9 .39020 7.76150 8.15170
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.0 83.1 77.7 73.2 65.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 49 28 .611 101.0 61.0 99.62360 .35080 99.97440 Padres 39 36 .444 76.7 85.3 .05040 9.51960 9.57000 Diamondbacks 39 37 .495 81.4 80.6 .31120 35.08480 35.39600 Giants 31 45 .514 75.5 86.5 .01480 5.98260 5.99740 Rockies 30 47 .424 65.8 96.2 .00000 .04220 .04220 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
