Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Sep 16 07:53:16 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.7 90.5 88.1 78.6 75.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 88 62 .539 94.6 67.4 95.59150 4.40840 99.99990 Yankees 83 67 .559 90.2 71.8 3.39310 95.87300 99.26610 Red Sox 82 68 .540 88.5 73.5 1.01540 92.97460 93.99000 Rays 73 77 .469 78.4 83.6 .00000 .00100 .00100 Orioles 70 80 .468 75.6 86.4 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.3 84.0 80.4 71.7 61.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 85 65 .514 91.3 70.7 99.18070 .47430 99.65500 Guardians 78 71 .449 83.9 78.1 .81930 8.02670 8.84600 Royals 75 75 .467 80.5 81.5 .00000 .10310 .10310 Twins 66 84 .477 71.7 90.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 57 94 .414 61.4 100.6 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 89.4 87.3 84.5 76.2 74.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 82 68 .564 88.7 73.3 60.49640 34.28850 94.78490 Astros 82 69 .528 87.9 74.1 38.01770 49.69880 87.71650 Rangers 79 72 .466 84.6 77.4 1.48590 14.15160 15.63750 Athletics 70 80 .473 75.7 86.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 69 81 .452 74.6 87.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.5 84.0 75.2 73.1 67.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 90 61 .581 96.5 65.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mets 77 73 .573 84.0 78.0 .00000 78.92750 78.92750 Marlins 70 80 .405 74.6 87.4 .00000 .00090 .00090 Braves 67 83 .524 73.7 88.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 62 88 .444 67.2 94.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.7 92.7 80.9 77.9 70.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 91 59 .547 97.6 64.4 97.75240 2.24760 100.00000 Cubs 86 64 .562 92.7 69.3 2.24760 97.75230 99.99990 Reds 75 75 .485 80.7 81.3 .00000 6.57070 6.57070 Cardinals 73 78 .481 78.1 83.9 .00000 .27060 .27060 Pirates 65 86 .460 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 91.4 88.3 81.8 79.7 46.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 84 66 .630 91.3 70.7 87.78720 12.21060 99.99780 Padres 82 68 .548 88.4 73.6 12.21160 87.53250 99.74410 Diamondbacks 76 75 .507 81.1 80.9 .00100 9.17550 9.17650 Giants 75 75 .467 80.5 81.5 .00020 5.31180 5.31200 Rockies 41 109 .396 46.1 115.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.7 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
