Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Sep 17 07:52:10 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.0 90.0 82.0 79.1 77.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 87 63 .573 93.9 68.1 91.81370 8.18630 100.00000 Orioles 84 66 .524 90.1 71.9 8.18630 91.42320 99.60950 Red Sox 75 75 .549 81.7 80.3 .00000 4.30220 4.30220 Rays 73 77 .460 78.3 83.7 .00000 .04060 .04060 Blue Jays 72 78 .491 78.2 83.8 .00000 .00980 .00980
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.7 87.8 85.6 83.4 40.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 87 64 .519 92.7 69.3 98.26080 1.73880 99.99960 Royals 82 69 .498 87.6 74.4 1.46110 93.29900 94.76010 Twins 79 71 .541 85.5 76.5 .27560 70.05470 70.33030 Tigers 78 73 .475 83.8 78.2 .00250 22.18610 22.18860 White Sox 36 115 .351 40.0 122.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 88.0 82.8 77.4 69.8 65.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 81 69 .564 87.9 74.1 96.80090 1.04280 97.84370 Mariners 77 73 .507 82.8 79.2 3.19900 7.71490 10.91390 Rangers 71 79 .509 77.5 84.5 .00010 .00160 .00170 Athletics 65 86 .456 69.8 92.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 60 90 .428 65.6 96.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.7 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.7 89.0 86.8 72.9 59.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 90 60 .573 96.7 65.3 99.92350 .07630 99.99980 Mets 82 68 .510 87.8 74.2 .06500 50.60780 50.67280 Braves 81 69 .556 88.1 73.9 .01150 57.70440 57.71590 Nationals 68 82 .433 72.9 89.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 55 95 .395 59.2 102.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.7 83.9 81.1 78.3 76.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 87 63 .493 92.7 69.3 99.99500 .00030 99.99530 Cubs 77 73 .520 83.7 78.3 .00500 .81580 .82080 Cardinals 75 75 .487 81.1 80.9 .00000 .00970 .00970 Reds 73 78 .465 77.9 84.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 71 79 .489 76.6 85.4 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 96.9 92.1 89.5 77.4 62.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 89 61 .602 96.9 65.1 97.13220 2.86770 99.99990 Padres 86 65 .544 91.7 70.3 2.73070 96.43330 99.16400 Diamondbacks 83 67 .568 89.9 72.1 .13710 91.48470 91.62180 Giants 72 78 .488 77.4 84.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 58 93 .415 62.1 99.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.1 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 88.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
