Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Mar 1 12:56:46 EST 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.4 89.8 84.9 79.9 73.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .556 88.5 73.5 31.42670 35.14340 66.57010 Red Sox 0 0 .553 88.0 74.0 29.12170 35.30020 64.42190 Orioles 0 0 .533 84.7 77.3 17.88640 32.39450 50.28090 Blue Jays 0 0 .525 83.1 78.9 13.80460 29.33120 43.13580 Rays 0 0 .505 79.9 82.1 7.76060 21.89960 29.66020
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.7 85.9 79.7 73.0 61.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 0 0 .551 89.2 72.8 51.13780 20.20620 71.34400 Royals 0 0 .520 84.1 77.9 25.87310 23.11990 48.99300 Twins 0 0 .497 79.9 82.1 13.57080 17.18010 30.75090 Guardians 0 0 .484 77.6 84.4 9.04850 13.16330 22.21180 White Sox 0 0 .401 63.3 98.7 .36980 .77750 1.14730
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.9 85.5 79.9 74.4 66.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .544 87.9 74.1 47.38610 18.85650 66.24260 Astros 0 0 .518 83.4 78.6 25.67820 20.34600 46.02420 Rangers 0 0 .493 78.9 83.1 12.70430 14.45720 27.16150 Athletics 0 0 .489 78.2 83.8 11.36100 13.37970 24.74070 Angels 0 0 .450 71.1 90.9 2.87040 4.44470 7.31510 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.3 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.4 88.6 81.9 73.9 65.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 0 0 .558 89.9 72.1 39.92810 36.33450 76.26260 Mets 0 0 .556 89.5 72.5 37.64560 36.82720 74.47280 Braves 0 0 .530 85.0 77.0 19.75520 36.29690 56.05210 Marlins 0 0 .456 72.4 89.6 1.84740 8.66190 10.50930 Nationals 0 0 .436 69.1 92.9 .82370 4.54430 5.36800
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.8 85.0 79.8 74.5 66.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .526 85.1 76.9 37.16080 20.70830 57.86910 Brewers 0 0 .505 81.2 80.8 21.23480 18.99480 40.22960 Reds 0 0 .504 81.2 80.8 21.22220 18.87170 40.09390 Pirates 0 0 .498 80.0 82.0 17.56610 17.34010 34.90620 Cardinals 0 0 .441 70.2 91.8 2.81610 4.56630 7.38240
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.7 87.1 80.0 74.1 66.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .614 99.7 62.3 84.81610 11.43710 96.25320 Diamondbacks 0 0 .520 83.4 78.6 9.22780 39.43000 48.65780 Padres 0 0 .479 76.2 85.8 2.36140 17.64050 20.00190 Giants 0 0 .478 76.2 85.8 2.34720 17.53140 19.87860 Rockies 0 0 .460 73.2 88.8 1.24750 10.81500 12.06250 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
