Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Apr 25 07:52:32 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.8 91.0 86.8 82.7 77.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 17 8 .554 92.8 69.2 47.26050 39.05540 86.31590 Orioles 16 8 .533 88.6 73.4 23.28160 46.20130 69.48290 Red Sox 14 11 .511 83.0 79.0 7.02670 31.65240 38.67910 Blue Jays 13 12 .535 86.2 75.8 13.87930 43.20660 57.08590 Rays 13 13 .530 84.0 78.0 8.55190 36.01000 44.56190
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.7 82.7 77.9 72.3 58.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 17 7 .482 84.3 77.7 44.84010 9.66520 54.50530 Royals 15 10 .457 78.0 84.0 14.26900 6.45900 20.72800 Tigers 14 11 .459 77.5 84.5 12.62370 6.12210 18.74580 Twins 10 13 .506 81.6 80.4 28.23740 10.00050 38.23790 White Sox 3 21 .401 58.4 103.6 .02980 .01280 .04260
Average wins by position in AL west: 91.7 85.8 80.9 75.1 64.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 13 12 .527 85.9 76.1 34.90110 22.24550 57.14660 Mariners 12 12 .509 82.2 79.8 18.14450 17.74090 35.88540 Angels 10 15 .493 78.0 84.0 7.47760 9.53000 17.00760 Athletics 9 16 .419 65.2 96.8 .16170 .27560 .43730 Astros 7 18 .573 86.6 75.4 39.31510 21.82270 61.13780 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.8 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.4 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.1 87.6 79.6 71.5 64.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 17 6 .579 98.4 63.6 85.34220 12.17020 97.51240 Phillies 15 10 .523 86.2 75.8 11.55980 51.09730 62.65710 Mets 13 11 .485 80.2 81.8 2.93970 26.26510 29.20480 Nationals 10 13 .420 68.2 93.8 .08340 1.59370 1.67710 Marlins 6 20 .459 68.8 93.2 .07490 1.73810 1.81300
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.4 86.9 82.7 78.6 72.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 15 8 .514 86.8 75.2 36.33120 29.21560 65.54680 Cubs 15 9 .508 85.7 76.3 30.12940 29.39060 59.52000 Reds 14 10 .500 82.4 79.6 15.87050 25.04060 40.91110 Pirates 13 12 .471 77.2 84.8 4.89350 12.38450 17.27800 Cardinals 11 14 .510 81.4 80.6 12.77540 22.78740 35.56280
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.9 86.5 80.1 74.1 63.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 15 11 .605 97.3 64.7 86.73570 10.26050 96.99620 Padres 14 13 .488 79.8 82.2 3.08390 24.00490 27.08880 Diamondbacks 12 14 .529 83.8 78.2 8.76990 40.21040 48.98030 Giants 12 14 .478 76.7 85.3 1.38510 13.40230 14.78740 Rockies 6 19 .433 64.8 97.2 .02540 .43880 .46420 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.1 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.5 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
