Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Jul 2 07:53:12 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.2 87.0 83.1 78.6 73.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           48   37   .556   90.9   71.1   68.81940   26.24220   95.06160
Blue Jays         47   38   .488   84.8   77.2   14.19080   51.10840   65.29920
Rays              47   39   .510   85.2   76.8   15.57510   52.74410   68.31920
Red Sox           42   44   .485   78.5   83.5    1.20270   14.32750   15.53020
Orioles           37   48   .494   74.8   87.2     .21200    3.93380    4.14580

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.4 83.3 79.2 74.9 57.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            53   32   .515   93.3   68.7   94.26070    4.16540   98.42610
Guardians         40   43   .481   79.2   82.8    1.91660   18.65680   20.57340
Twins             40   45   .515   80.7   81.3    3.02870   27.26450   30.29320
Royals            40   46   .486   77.6   84.4     .79390   11.09520   11.88910
White Sox         28   57   .393   57.9  104.1     .00010     .00030     .00040

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.5 85.4 79.8 75.4 70.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            51   34   .525   91.8   70.2   81.71720   15.08640   96.80360
Mariners          44   41   .531   85.2   76.8   16.10010   52.90710   69.00720
Angels            42   42   .444   76.4   85.6     .61070    7.20200    7.81270
Rangers           42   44   .483   78.5   83.5    1.53850   14.51890   16.05740
Athletics         36   52   .476   71.5   90.5     .03350     .74740     .78090

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  88.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  85.8
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  83.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.6 88.5 81.7 73.2 67.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Phillies          50   35   .563   93.6   68.4   73.55080   21.97790   95.52870
Mets              48   37   .532   88.9   73.1   24.25960   52.47470   76.73430
Marlins           38   45   .409   69.7   92.3     .00340     .07300     .07640
Braves            38   46   .560   82.1   79.9    2.17740   19.59860   21.77600
Nationals         35   49   .472   71.6   90.4     .00880     .20640     .21520

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.8 88.3 84.3 79.9 71.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              50   35   .566   94.1   67.9   80.03100   16.11150   96.14250
Brewers           47   37   .514   86.0   76.0    9.94150   43.53390   53.47540
Cardinals         47   40   .512   85.5   76.5    8.33030   41.06670   49.39700
Reds              44   41   .496   81.3   80.7    1.69020   16.15810   17.84830
Pirates           37   50   .467   71.8   90.2     .00700     .20710     .21410

Average wins by position in NL West:  101.8 87.3 83.0 78.8 48.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           54   32   .622  101.8   60.2   99.08820     .85740   99.94560
Padres            45   39   .483   82.7   79.3     .22760   26.62320   26.85080
Giants            45   41   .499   81.8   80.2     .17730   20.53920   20.71650
Diamondbacks      43   42   .535   84.6   77.4     .50690   40.57230   41.07920
Rockies           19   66   .381   48.2  113.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.3
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  86.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.