Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Jul 2 07:53:12 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.2 87.0 83.1 78.6 73.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 48 37 .556 90.9 71.1 68.81940 26.24220 95.06160 Blue Jays 47 38 .488 84.8 77.2 14.19080 51.10840 65.29920 Rays 47 39 .510 85.2 76.8 15.57510 52.74410 68.31920 Red Sox 42 44 .485 78.5 83.5 1.20270 14.32750 15.53020 Orioles 37 48 .494 74.8 87.2 .21200 3.93380 4.14580
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.4 83.3 79.2 74.9 57.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 53 32 .515 93.3 68.7 94.26070 4.16540 98.42610 Guardians 40 43 .481 79.2 82.8 1.91660 18.65680 20.57340 Twins 40 45 .515 80.7 81.3 3.02870 27.26450 30.29320 Royals 40 46 .486 77.6 84.4 .79390 11.09520 11.88910 White Sox 28 57 .393 57.9 104.1 .00010 .00030 .00040
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.5 85.4 79.8 75.4 70.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 51 34 .525 91.8 70.2 81.71720 15.08640 96.80360 Mariners 44 41 .531 85.2 76.8 16.10010 52.90710 69.00720 Angels 42 42 .444 76.4 85.6 .61070 7.20200 7.81270 Rangers 42 44 .483 78.5 83.5 1.53850 14.51890 16.05740 Athletics 36 52 .476 71.5 90.5 .03350 .74740 .78090 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 88.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 85.8 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 83.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.6 88.5 81.7 73.2 67.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 50 35 .563 93.6 68.4 73.55080 21.97790 95.52870 Mets 48 37 .532 88.9 73.1 24.25960 52.47470 76.73430 Marlins 38 45 .409 69.7 92.3 .00340 .07300 .07640 Braves 38 46 .560 82.1 79.9 2.17740 19.59860 21.77600 Nationals 35 49 .472 71.6 90.4 .00880 .20640 .21520
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.8 88.3 84.3 79.9 71.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 50 35 .566 94.1 67.9 80.03100 16.11150 96.14250 Brewers 47 37 .514 86.0 76.0 9.94150 43.53390 53.47540 Cardinals 47 40 .512 85.5 76.5 8.33030 41.06670 49.39700 Reds 44 41 .496 81.3 80.7 1.69020 16.15810 17.84830 Pirates 37 50 .467 71.8 90.2 .00700 .20710 .21410
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.8 87.3 83.0 78.8 48.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 54 32 .622 101.8 60.2 99.08820 .85740 99.94560 Padres 45 39 .483 82.7 79.3 .22760 26.62320 26.85080 Giants 45 41 .499 81.8 80.2 .17730 20.53920 20.71650 Diamondbacks 43 42 .535 84.6 77.4 .50690 40.57230 41.07920 Rockies 19 66 .381 48.2 113.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
