Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Jan 22 12:37:32 EST 2023


Average wins by position in AL East:  97.6 90.7 85.5 80.1 72.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays          0    0   .564   90.4   71.6   34.97530   35.03570   70.01100
Yankees            0    0   .561   89.9   72.1   32.75260   35.52610   68.27870
Rays               0    0   .531   85.1   76.9   15.60000   31.16250   46.76250
Red Sox            0    0   .527   84.1   77.9   13.35360   29.15020   42.50380
Orioles            0    0   .483   76.8   85.2    3.31850   12.60060   15.91910

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.7 87.1 78.9 70.3 61.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins              0    0   .556   90.6   71.4   49.09600   23.88240   72.97840
Guardians          0    0   .546   89.0   73.0   40.05300   26.30760   66.36060
White Sox          0    0   .490   79.6   82.4    9.48380   15.51260   24.99640
Tigers             0    0   .423   68.3   93.7     .91500    2.05350    2.96850
Royals             0    0   .410   65.8   96.2     .45220    1.10750    1.55970

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.1 87.9 81.8 74.9 61.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros             0    0   .568   92.4   69.6   56.69520   21.44290   78.13810
Mariners           0    0   .522   84.5   77.5   19.06470   25.59280   44.65750
Angels             0    0   .510   82.5   79.5   13.88520   21.98210   35.86730
Rangers            0    0   .499   80.6   81.4   10.23410   18.22660   28.46070
Athletics          0    0   .390   62.0  100.0     .12080     .41690     .53770

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  93.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.6
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  87.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  99.2 91.7 85.1 76.7 64.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves             0    0   .570   92.5   69.5   38.42330   41.96490   80.38820
Mets               0    0   .567   92.1   69.9   35.98390   42.83970   78.82360
Phillies           0    0   .547   88.7   73.3   22.17760   44.21970   66.39730
Marlins            0    0   .485   78.1   83.9    3.29480   18.05190   21.34670
Nationals          0    0   .408   65.2   96.8     .12040    1.43220    1.55260

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.4 85.6 77.4 70.3 62.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers            0    0   .548   90.0   72.0   53.08250   20.60650   73.68900
Cardinals          0    0   .533   87.5   74.5   38.56440   24.56140   63.12580
Cubs               0    0   .462   75.5   86.5    5.75860    9.21360   14.97220
Pirates            0    0   .424   69.0   93.0    1.44340    2.70520    4.14860
Reds               0    0   .419   68.0   94.0    1.15110    2.21860    3.36970

Average wins by position in NL West:  97.9 88.7 80.1 72.0 63.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .575   94.2   67.8   58.44400   27.04750   85.49150
Padres             0    0   .551   89.9   72.1   33.70360   37.86660   71.57020
Giants             0    0   .489   79.5   82.5    6.30750   19.82050   26.12800
Diamondbacks       0    0   .443   71.6   90.4    1.19760    5.56630    6.76390
Rockies            0    0   .415   66.7   95.3     .34730    1.88540    2.23270

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  94.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.8
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  86.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.