Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sat Mar 21 11:26:49 EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.3 89.7 84.8 79.9 73.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .561 89.2 72.8 35.12420 33.28610 68.41030 Red Sox 0 0 .545 86.4 75.6 23.41320 32.91550 56.32870 Orioles 0 0 .536 85.1 76.9 19.18300 31.38930 50.57230 Blue Jays 0 0 .525 82.9 79.1 13.37750 27.28290 40.66040 Rays 0 0 .510 80.6 81.4 8.90210 22.21210 31.11420
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.6 84.5 77.9 71.5 62.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 0 0 .544 88.1 73.9 51.59170 15.99890 67.59060 Royals 0 0 .522 84.4 77.6 31.78120 18.78660 50.56780 Twins 0 0 .473 75.8 86.2 8.11200 8.78420 16.89620 Guardians 0 0 .472 75.5 86.5 7.71350 8.37100 16.08450 White Sox 0 0 .411 65.0 97.0 .80160 1.01220 1.81380
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.8 88.5 81.5 74.2 64.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .599 96.7 65.3 71.61260 19.10230 90.71490 Astros 0 0 .528 84.6 77.4 13.99580 34.79570 48.79150 Rangers 0 0 .523 83.5 78.5 11.60970 31.95490 43.56460 Athletics 0 0 .475 75.3 86.7 2.39720 11.58180 13.97900 Angels 0 0 .433 67.7 94.3 .38470 2.52650 2.91120 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.6 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.8 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.6 87.9 81.6 74.7 66.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 0 0 .560 90.1 71.9 45.42970 31.32670 76.75640 Phillies 0 0 .542 87.1 74.9 30.29060 34.90560 65.19620 Braves 0 0 .525 84.3 77.7 19.83540 32.65320 52.48860 Marlins 0 0 .463 73.8 88.2 2.92900 10.44530 13.37430 Nationals 0 0 .446 70.8 91.2 1.51530 6.22510 7.74040
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.5 85.7 79.9 74.2 66.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .552 89.4 72.6 53.67500 21.23530 74.91030 Brewers 0 0 .517 83.2 78.8 23.17050 25.24500 48.41550 Pirates 0 0 .494 79.3 82.7 12.46700 18.92130 31.38830 Reds 0 0 .479 76.8 85.2 7.95710 14.23040 22.18750 Cardinals 0 0 .448 71.4 90.6 2.73040 6.14520 8.87560
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.3 87.3 80.1 73.1 61.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .617 100.5 61.5 86.03350 10.80690 96.84040 Diamondbacks 0 0 .511 82.1 79.9 6.59800 35.96180 42.55980 Giants 0 0 .493 79.0 83.0 3.68300 25.56540 29.24840 Padres 0 0 .494 78.9 83.1 3.61720 25.26020 28.87740 Rockies 0 0 .398 62.8 99.2 .06830 1.07260 1.14090 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.8 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
