Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Aug 7 07:53:12 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.0 88.9 85.4 79.1 72.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 68 48 .531 92.2 69.8 71.63500 26.32230 97.95730 Red Sox 64 52 .512 87.7 74.3 15.05450 64.70600 79.76050 Yankees 61 54 .537 87.3 74.7 13.18580 63.51510 76.70090 Rays 57 59 .482 79.0 83.0 .12380 4.85300 4.97680 Orioles 52 63 .451 72.7 89.3 .00090 .06930 .07020
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.0 83.1 79.6 75.7 62.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 66 50 .520 90.9 71.1 94.20450 2.77220 96.97670 Guardians 59 55 .459 81.8 80.2 4.05810 15.20610 19.26420 Royals 57 58 .469 79.9 82.1 1.51700 6.46170 7.97870 Twins 54 60 .464 76.9 85.1 .22040 1.37790 1.59830 White Sox 42 72 .410 62.2 99.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 91.0 87.4 83.4 76.4 71.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 64 51 .535 89.4 72.6 55.19890 34.68260 89.88150 Mariners 62 53 .559 88.3 73.7 37.68030 46.90770 84.58800 Rangers 60 56 .519 84.0 78.0 7.06310 32.48210 39.54520 Angels 55 60 .456 75.8 86.2 .05700 .61970 .67670 Athletics 50 66 .466 71.9 90.1 .00070 .02430 .02500 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.9 87.5 77.2 72.1 65.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 65 49 .599 93.5 68.5 85.53910 13.25570 98.79480 Mets 63 52 .548 87.8 74.2 14.43610 65.22560 79.66170 Marlins 56 57 .429 76.6 85.4 .02460 .76980 .79440 Braves 47 66 .519 72.5 89.5 .00020 .02850 .02870 Nationals 45 68 .441 66.3 95.7 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.8 92.7 83.6 79.4 70.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 70 44 .533 95.0 67.0 53.61240 45.80940 99.42180 Cubs 66 48 .583 94.5 67.5 46.25780 53.02540 99.28320 Reds 60 55 .496 82.2 79.8 .09710 13.99950 14.09660 Cardinals 58 58 .491 80.9 81.1 .03270 7.01000 7.04270 Pirates 49 66 .457 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00180 .00180
Average wins by position in NL West: 96.7 90.4 81.2 76.2 46.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 66 49 .639 96.4 65.6 86.26750 13.57910 99.84660 Padres 64 51 .559 90.7 71.3 13.68330 80.52400 94.20730 Giants 58 57 .481 80.5 81.5 .04770 5.99190 6.03960 Diamondbacks 54 61 .494 77.0 85.0 .00150 .77930 .78080 Rockies 30 84 .362 46.3 115.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 93.6 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.4 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 87.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
