Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Jun 4 07:52:26 AM EDT 2023
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.0 93.2 89.4 85.5 80.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 41 19 .559 97.3 64.7 66.23710 29.12670 95.36380 Orioles 36 22 .505 87.3 74.7 6.36750 40.89590 47.26340 Yankees 35 25 .548 91.1 70.9 16.58730 56.85480 73.44210 Blue Jays 32 27 .550 88.9 73.1 9.35210 49.85990 59.21200 Red Sox 30 28 .515 82.9 79.1 1.45600 18.48830 19.94430
Average wins by position in AL Central: 86.8 78.9 73.9 68.8 59.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 31 28 .523 86.0 76.0 81.00580 .52660 81.53240 Tigers 26 30 .418 70.6 91.4 1.98410 .06010 2.04420 Guardians 26 32 .487 77.0 85.0 11.67000 .91500 12.58500 White Sox 25 35 .476 74.3 87.7 5.31970 .33760 5.65730 Royals 17 41 .420 60.5 101.5 .02040 .00030 .02070
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.2 90.6 85.1 79.5 51.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 37 20 .563 95.7 66.3 69.19170 22.79370 91.98540 Astros 35 23 .535 90.5 71.5 24.48370 45.36510 69.84880 Angels 30 30 .530 83.6 78.4 3.59380 18.91460 22.50840 Mariners 29 29 .522 82.7 79.3 2.73080 15.86140 18.59220 Athletics 12 48 .389 51.2 110.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 94.3 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 91.2 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 88.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.8 86.1 81.2 76.5 67.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 34 24 .581 95.4 66.6 88.78530 9.69380 98.47910 Marlins 31 28 .473 79.6 82.4 1.86900 26.14960 28.01860 Mets 30 29 .501 80.7 81.3 2.97350 32.46900 35.44250 Phillies 26 32 .540 83.3 78.7 6.35970 47.45980 53.81950 Nationals 25 33 .419 67.6 94.4 .01250 .46810 .48060
Average wins by position in NL Central: 86.3 82.3 79.3 76.2 72.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 31 27 .470 80.2 81.8 24.43970 11.64610 36.08580 Pirates 30 27 .466 79.1 82.9 18.84540 10.15480 29.00020 Reds 26 32 .484 76.8 85.2 9.76920 6.83990 16.60910 Cubs 25 32 .521 80.4 81.6 25.43850 11.60480 37.04330 Cardinals 25 34 .525 79.8 82.2 21.50720 11.61000 33.11720
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.9 86.8 81.9 77.0 67.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 35 24 .551 92.9 69.1 76.59370 19.67420 96.26790 Diamondbacks 35 24 .497 85.3 76.7 15.00750 52.51020 67.51770 Giants 29 29 .503 81.1 80.9 5.19560 32.93600 38.13160 Padres 27 31 .504 79.8 82.2 3.17530 26.21920 29.39450 Rockies 26 34 .423 68.3 93.7 .02790 .56450 .59240 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 88.8 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 85.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 83.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
