Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Apr 17 07:52:55 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.5 87.5 83.2 78.9 73.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 11 7 .539 88.9 73.1 44.78410 33.10260 77.88670 Blue Jays 11 8 .502 83.1 78.9 15.97320 33.78610 49.75930 Red Sox 10 10 .529 85.2 76.8 23.50160 37.54740 61.04900 Rays 8 10 .494 78.7 83.3 6.62000 21.15710 27.77710 Orioles 7 10 .502 80.3 81.7 9.12110 25.98450 35.10560
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.3 83.3 78.5 73.0 59.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 10 8 .499 83.8 78.2 39.17520 17.62340 56.79860 Guardians 9 8 .490 81.2 80.8 25.11980 16.90520 42.02500 Royals 8 11 .482 78.2 83.8 14.09070 13.22560 27.31630 Twins 7 12 .505 80.5 81.5 21.53770 16.64100 38.17870 White Sox 4 13 .385 59.5 102.5 .07660 .09310 .16970
Average wins by position in AL west: 90.4 84.5 79.9 75.0 68.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 11 7 .505 84.6 77.4 36.54520 22.77500 59.32020 Angels 9 8 .467 77.0 85.0 8.80450 12.68950 21.49400 Mariners 9 9 .500 81.4 80.6 20.58340 21.12680 41.71020 Astros 8 10 .515 83.7 78.3 31.69820 22.90440 54.60260 Athletics 8 10 .441 71.4 90.6 2.36870 4.43830 6.80700 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.2 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.3 89.6 83.3 73.8 61.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 11 7 .531 86.3 75.7 18.68830 27.92090 46.60920 Phillies 10 8 .565 91.6 70.4 45.24470 29.26270 74.50740 Marlins 8 9 .386 62.3 99.7 .01610 .06910 .08520 Nationals 7 11 .469 74.1 87.9 1.03890 3.61480 4.65370 Braves 5 13 .585 90.0 72.0 35.01200 31.97690 66.98890
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.7 85.7 80.7 75.9 69.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 12 9 .544 89.9 72.1 59.37060 11.58850 70.95910 Brewers 10 9 .516 83.1 78.9 19.52330 13.41810 32.94140 Cardinals 9 9 .504 81.1 80.9 13.44150 10.48370 23.92520 Reds 9 9 .473 76.3 85.7 4.65250 4.49660 9.14910 Pirates 7 12 .480 74.5 87.5 3.01210 3.00540 6.01750
Average wins by position in NL West: 104.9 94.4 87.9 80.7 55.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Padres 15 4 .521 88.4 73.6 5.60830 52.01970 57.62800 Dodgers 14 6 .631 103.9 58.1 81.86610 16.85460 98.72070 Giants 13 5 .499 84.3 77.7 2.13970 33.61090 35.75060 Diamondbacks 11 7 .561 91.2 70.8 10.38560 61.67450 72.06010 Rockies 3 15 .375 55.4 106.6 .00030 .00360 .00390 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 95.5 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 91.2 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 88.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
