Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Jul 13 07:53:18 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.2 87.8 84.2 80.8 75.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 55 40 .488 87.5 74.5 26.34520 53.55910 79.90430 Yankees 53 42 .556 90.7 71.3 62.40470 31.35670 93.76140 Red Sox 52 45 .485 82.5 79.5 4.34610 31.84820 36.19430 Rays 50 46 .510 83.5 78.5 6.64920 38.75710 45.40630 Orioles 43 51 .494 76.4 85.6 .25480 4.28080 4.53560
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.7 84.1 80.0 75.9 57.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 59 37 .515 93.6 68.4 94.85760 3.87440 98.73200 Twins 47 48 .515 82.3 79.7 3.57650 31.33420 34.91070 Royals 46 50 .486 78.8 83.2 .72420 10.96530 11.68950 Guardians 45 49 .481 79.0 83.0 .84170 12.36280 13.20450 White Sox 32 64 .393 57.3 104.7 .00000 .00010 .00010
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.3 85.9 80.0 75.6 70.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 56 39 .525 91.6 70.4 80.18120 15.98740 96.16860 Mariners 50 45 .531 86.0 76.0 18.34270 51.21230 69.55500 Angels 47 48 .444 76.5 85.5 .38270 4.04480 4.42750 Rangers 47 49 .483 78.8 83.2 1.08420 10.21940 11.30360 Athletics 40 57 .476 71.1 90.9 .00920 .19740 .20660 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.6 88.6 80.3 72.1 67.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 55 41 .532 90.2 71.8 39.33140 46.70210 86.03350 Phillies 54 41 .563 91.9 70.1 59.75900 33.30400 93.06300 Marlins 43 51 .409 70.2 91.8 .00120 .03460 .03580 Braves 42 52 .560 80.3 81.7 .90760 9.19680 10.10440 Nationals 38 57 .472 69.4 92.6 .00080 .01620 .01700
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.2 89.0 84.2 79.3 68.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 56 39 .566 94.6 67.4 80.21720 17.55620 97.77340 Brewers 55 40 .514 88.5 73.5 16.30970 59.18330 75.49300 Cardinals 50 46 .512 84.1 77.9 2.92840 32.23810 35.16650 Reds 49 47 .496 80.4 81.6 .54460 10.32320 10.86780 Pirates 38 58 .467 69.0 93.0 .00010 .01100 .01110
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.5 87.4 83.4 79.4 47.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 57 39 .622 98.5 63.5 97.47900 2.30790 99.78690 Padres 52 43 .483 84.5 77.5 1.14050 37.60460 38.74510 Giants 52 44 .499 84.3 77.7 1.13300 35.80840 36.94140 Diamondbacks 46 50 .535 81.5 80.5 .24750 15.71360 15.96110 Rockies 22 73 .381 47.1 114.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.5 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
