Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Apr 17 07:52:55 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.5 87.5 83.2 78.9 73.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           11    7   .539   88.9   73.1   44.78410   33.10260   77.88670
Blue Jays         11    8   .502   83.1   78.9   15.97320   33.78610   49.75930
Red Sox           10   10   .529   85.2   76.8   23.50160   37.54740   61.04900
Rays               8   10   .494   78.7   83.3    6.62000   21.15710   27.77710
Orioles            7   10   .502   80.3   81.7    9.12110   25.98450   35.10560

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.3 83.3 78.5 73.0 59.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            10    8   .499   83.8   78.2   39.17520   17.62340   56.79860
Guardians          9    8   .490   81.2   80.8   25.11980   16.90520   42.02500
Royals             8   11   .482   78.2   83.8   14.09070   13.22560   27.31630
Twins              7   12   .505   80.5   81.5   21.53770   16.64100   38.17870
White Sox          4   13   .385   59.5  102.5     .07660     .09310     .16970

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.4 84.5 79.9 75.0 68.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           11    7   .505   84.6   77.4   36.54520   22.77500   59.32020
Angels             9    8   .467   77.0   85.0    8.80450   12.68950   21.49400
Mariners           9    9   .500   81.4   80.6   20.58340   21.12680   41.71020
Astros             8   10   .515   83.7   78.3   31.69820   22.90440   54.60260
Athletics          8   10   .441   71.4   90.6    2.36870    4.43830    6.80700

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.2
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  84.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.3 89.6 83.3 73.8 61.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets              11    7   .531   86.3   75.7   18.68830   27.92090   46.60920
Phillies          10    8   .565   91.6   70.4   45.24470   29.26270   74.50740
Marlins            8    9   .386   62.3   99.7     .01610     .06910     .08520
Nationals          7   11   .469   74.1   87.9    1.03890    3.61480    4.65370
Braves             5   13   .585   90.0   72.0   35.01200   31.97690   66.98890

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.7 85.7 80.7 75.9 69.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              12    9   .544   89.9   72.1   59.37060   11.58850   70.95910
Brewers           10    9   .516   83.1   78.9   19.52330   13.41810   32.94140
Cardinals          9    9   .504   81.1   80.9   13.44150   10.48370   23.92520
Reds               9    9   .473   76.3   85.7    4.65250    4.49660    9.14910
Pirates            7   12   .480   74.5   87.5    3.01210    3.00540    6.01750

Average wins by position in NL West:  104.9 94.4 87.9 80.7 55.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Padres            15    4   .521   88.4   73.6    5.60830   52.01970   57.62800
Dodgers           14    6   .631  103.9   58.1   81.86610   16.85460   98.72070
Giants            13    5   .499   84.3   77.7    2.13970   33.61090   35.75060
Diamondbacks      11    7   .561   91.2   70.8   10.38560   61.67450   72.06010
Rockies            3   15   .375   55.4  106.6     .00030     .00360     .00390

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  95.5
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  91.2
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  88.2

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.