Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Jun 4 07:52:26 AM EDT 2023


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.0 93.2 89.4 85.5 80.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rays              41   19   .559   97.3   64.7   66.23710   29.12670   95.36380
Orioles           36   22   .505   87.3   74.7    6.36750   40.89590   47.26340
Yankees           35   25   .548   91.1   70.9   16.58730   56.85480   73.44210
Blue Jays         32   27   .550   88.9   73.1    9.35210   49.85990   59.21200
Red Sox           30   28   .515   82.9   79.1    1.45600   18.48830   19.94430

Average wins by position in AL Central:  86.8 78.9 73.9 68.8 59.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins             31   28   .523   86.0   76.0   81.00580     .52660   81.53240
Tigers            26   30   .418   70.6   91.4    1.98410     .06010    2.04420
Guardians         26   32   .487   77.0   85.0   11.67000     .91500   12.58500
White Sox         25   35   .476   74.3   87.7    5.31970     .33760    5.65730
Royals            17   41   .420   60.5  101.5     .02040     .00030     .02070

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.2 90.6 85.1 79.5 51.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           37   20   .563   95.7   66.3   69.19170   22.79370   91.98540
Astros            35   23   .535   90.5   71.5   24.48370   45.36510   69.84880
Angels            30   30   .530   83.6   78.4    3.59380   18.91460   22.50840
Mariners          29   29   .522   82.7   79.3    2.73080   15.86140   18.59220
Athletics         12   48   .389   51.2  110.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  94.3
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  91.2
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  88.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.8 86.1 81.2 76.5 67.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            34   24   .581   95.4   66.6   88.78530    9.69380   98.47910
Marlins           31   28   .473   79.6   82.4    1.86900   26.14960   28.01860
Mets              30   29   .501   80.7   81.3    2.97350   32.46900   35.44250
Phillies          26   32   .540   83.3   78.7    6.35970   47.45980   53.81950
Nationals         25   33   .419   67.6   94.4     .01250     .46810     .48060

Average wins by position in NL Central:  86.3 82.3 79.3 76.2 72.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           31   27   .470   80.2   81.8   24.43970   11.64610   36.08580
Pirates           30   27   .466   79.1   82.9   18.84540   10.15480   29.00020
Reds              26   32   .484   76.8   85.2    9.76920    6.83990   16.60910
Cubs              25   32   .521   80.4   81.6   25.43850   11.60480   37.04330
Cardinals         25   34   .525   79.8   82.2   21.50720   11.61000   33.11720

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.9 86.8 81.9 77.0 67.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           35   24   .551   92.9   69.1   76.59370   19.67420   96.26790
Diamondbacks      35   24   .497   85.3   76.7   15.00750   52.51020   67.51770
Giants            29   29   .503   81.1   80.9    5.19560   32.93600   38.13160
Padres            27   31   .504   79.8   82.2    3.17530   26.21920   29.39450
Rockies           26   34   .423   68.3   93.7     .02790     .56450     .59240

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.7
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  83.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.