Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Oct 2 07:52:08 AM EDT 2023


Average wins by position in AL East:  101.0 99.0 89.0 82.0 78.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles          101   61   .513  101.0   61.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rays              99   63   .522   99.0   63.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Blue Jays         89   73   .530   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Yankees           82   80   .500   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Red Sox           78   84   .521   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  87.0 78.0 76.0 61.0 56.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins             87   75   .541   87.0   75.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Tigers            78   84   .471   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Guardians         76   86   .490   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         61  101   .447   61.0  101.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            56  106   .449   56.0  106.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.0 90.0 88.0 73.0 50.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            90   72   .549   90.0   72.0   49.94930   50.05070  100.00000
Rangers           90   72   .543   90.0   72.0   50.05070   49.94930  100.00000
Mariners          88   74   .525   88.0   74.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Angels            73   89   .494   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         50  112   .439   50.0  112.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  99.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  90.0
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  89.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  104.0 90.0 84.0 74.0 71.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves           104   58   .576  104.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Phillies          90   72   .536   90.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Marlins           84   77   .493   84.0   77.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Mets              74   87   .454   74.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Nationals         71   91   .426   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.0 83.0 82.0 76.0 71.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           92   70   .507   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Cubs              83   79   .525   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              82   80   .499   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           76   86   .470   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Cardinals         71   91   .475   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  100.0 84.0 82.0 79.0 59.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers          100   62   .556  100.0   62.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Diamondbacks      84   78   .511   84.0   78.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Padres            82   80   .508   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Giants            79   83   .485   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           59  103   .439   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  84.5
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  84.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.