Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu May 7 07:53:13 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 87.6 82.8 78.5 73.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 25 12 .566 95.0 67.0 78.65860 17.85830 96.51690 Rays 24 12 .494 84.2 77.8 10.71870 47.04150 57.76020 Orioles 17 20 .525 81.3 80.7 5.10920 35.05390 40.16310 Red Sox 16 21 .519 79.9 82.1 3.59460 28.57990 32.17450 Blue Jays 16 21 .509 77.6 84.4 1.91890 18.83230 20.75120
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.6 82.5 78.0 73.2 66.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 19 19 .487 80.0 82.0 18.93780 15.71350 34.65130 Tigers 18 20 .550 86.0 76.0 58.59440 13.88950 72.48390 Royals 17 20 .499 79.3 82.7 15.92200 14.92870 30.85070 White Sox 17 20 .427 68.6 93.4 .90470 1.07090 1.97560 Twins 16 21 .475 74.9 87.1 5.64110 6.62250 12.26360
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.0 85.3 80.5 75.7 68.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 18 18 .483 78.0 84.0 5.38770 17.19910 22.58680 Mariners 18 20 .588 90.2 71.8 66.55700 20.72710 87.28410 Rangers 17 19 .514 82.0 80.0 14.03790 30.43210 44.47000 Astros 15 23 .543 81.8 80.2 13.52810 29.60440 43.13250 Angels 15 23 .460 70.2 91.8 .48930 2.44630 2.93560 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 83.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.9 85.1 79.6 74.6 68.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 26 12 .544 92.9 69.1 79.91910 13.29400 93.21310 Phillies 17 20 .529 82.4 79.6 11.00230 33.90030 44.90260 Nationals 17 20 .448 72.1 89.9 .61130 3.99490 4.60620 Marlins 16 21 .475 74.3 87.7 1.33820 7.59620 8.93440 Mets 14 22 .534 80.1 81.9 7.12910 24.48810 31.61720
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.6 87.4 82.4 77.6 71.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 25 12 .555 94.4 67.6 76.50660 18.86350 95.37010 Cardinals 21 15 .441 76.1 85.9 1.35440 12.47190 13.82630 Pirates 20 17 .520 84.0 78.0 10.67690 44.06190 54.73880 Reds 20 17 .465 77.1 84.9 1.64920 15.45160 17.10080 Brewers 19 16 .515 83.3 78.7 9.81290 40.76030 50.57320
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.8 85.6 79.3 72.9 64.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 23 14 .627 101.7 60.3 96.64610 3.04660 99.69270 Padres 22 14 .490 82.2 79.8 2.00980 41.29900 43.30880 Diamondbacks 17 18 .501 80.7 81.3 1.24070 33.42700 34.66770 Giants 14 23 .481 73.6 88.4 .09830 6.80560 6.90390 Rockies 14 23 .423 66.1 95.9 .00510 .53910 .54420 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.6 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
