Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Oct 2 07:52:08 AM EDT 2023
Average wins by position in AL East: 101.0 99.0 89.0 82.0 78.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Orioles 101 61 .513 101.0 61.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rays 99 63 .522 99.0 63.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Blue Jays 89 73 .530 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Yankees 82 80 .500 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 78 84 .521 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.0 78.0 76.0 61.0 56.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 87 75 .541 87.0 75.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Tigers 78 84 .471 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Guardians 76 86 .490 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 61 101 .447 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 56 106 .449 56.0 106.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 90.0 90.0 88.0 73.0 50.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 90 72 .549 90.0 72.0 49.94930 50.05070 100.00000 Rangers 90 72 .543 90.0 72.0 50.05070 49.94930 100.00000 Mariners 88 74 .525 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 73 89 .494 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 50 112 .439 50.0 112.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 99.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 89.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 104.0 90.0 84.0 74.0 71.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 104 58 .576 104.0 58.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Phillies 90 72 .536 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Marlins 84 77 .493 84.0 77.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Mets 74 87 .454 74.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 71 91 .426 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.0 83.0 82.0 76.0 71.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 92 70 .507 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cubs 83 79 .525 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 82 80 .499 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 76 86 .470 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 71 91 .475 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.0 84.0 82.0 79.0 59.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 100 62 .556 100.0 62.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 84 78 .511 84.0 78.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Padres 82 80 .508 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 79 83 .485 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 59 103 .439 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 84.5 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
