Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Jul 13 07:53:18 AM EDT 2025


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.2 87.8 84.2 80.8 75.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays         55   40   .488   87.5   74.5   26.34520   53.55910   79.90430
Yankees           53   42   .556   90.7   71.3   62.40470   31.35670   93.76140
Red Sox           52   45   .485   82.5   79.5    4.34610   31.84820   36.19430
Rays              50   46   .510   83.5   78.5    6.64920   38.75710   45.40630
Orioles           43   51   .494   76.4   85.6     .25480    4.28080    4.53560

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.7 84.1 80.0 75.9 57.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            59   37   .515   93.6   68.4   94.85760    3.87440   98.73200
Twins             47   48   .515   82.3   79.7    3.57650   31.33420   34.91070
Royals            46   50   .486   78.8   83.2     .72420   10.96530   11.68950
Guardians         45   49   .481   79.0   83.0     .84170   12.36280   13.20450
White Sox         32   64   .393   57.3  104.7     .00000     .00010     .00010

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.3 85.9 80.0 75.6 70.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            56   39   .525   91.6   70.4   80.18120   15.98740   96.16860
Mariners          50   45   .531   86.0   76.0   18.34270   51.21230   69.55500
Angels            47   48   .444   76.5   85.5     .38270    4.04480    4.42750
Rangers           47   49   .483   78.8   83.2    1.08420   10.21940   11.30360
Athletics         40   57   .476   71.1   90.9     .00920     .19740     .20660

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.5
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  84.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.6 88.6 80.3 72.1 67.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets              55   41   .532   90.2   71.8   39.33140   46.70210   86.03350
Phillies          54   41   .563   91.9   70.1   59.75900   33.30400   93.06300
Marlins           43   51   .409   70.2   91.8     .00120     .03460     .03580
Braves            42   52   .560   80.3   81.7     .90760    9.19680   10.10440
Nationals         38   57   .472   69.4   92.6     .00080     .01620     .01700

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.2 89.0 84.2 79.3 68.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              56   39   .566   94.6   67.4   80.21720   17.55620   97.77340
Brewers           55   40   .514   88.5   73.5   16.30970   59.18330   75.49300
Cardinals         50   46   .512   84.1   77.9    2.92840   32.23810   35.16650
Reds              49   47   .496   80.4   81.6     .54460   10.32320   10.86780
Pirates           38   58   .467   69.0   93.0     .00010     .01100     .01110

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.5 87.4 83.4 79.4 47.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           57   39   .622   98.5   63.5   97.47900    2.30790   99.78690
Padres            52   43   .483   84.5   77.5    1.14050   37.60460   38.74510
Giants            52   44   .499   84.3   77.7    1.13300   35.80840   36.94140
Diamondbacks      46   50   .535   81.5   80.5     .24750   15.71360   15.96110
Rockies           22   73   .381   47.1  114.9     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.5
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  86.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.