These are the dates when teams have first hit either a 100% or a 0% chance of making the playoffs in 2023 (according to my Playoff Odds; click on team name for their day-by-day chances). It is not the same thing as mathematically clinching or eliminated – but does represent the 1 in a million point.

Hit 100%:
Atlanta Aug 9
LA Dodgers Aug 30
Baltimore Sep 9

Hit 0%
Oakland May 24
Kansas City July 8
Colorado July 11
Chicago WS Sept 2
LA Angels Sept 6
Washington Sept 6
St Louis Sept 10
Pittsburgh Sept 12

Oakland’s elimination on May 24 – after just 50 games played – is the quickest elimination since at least 2004. But prior to 2007 I was using a different system, one that was (IMO) too rigid in its assessment of teams, so at the bare minimum we’re comparing Granny Smith to Galas. The previously fastest eliminations (since 2007) were Baltimore (63 in 2018, 64 in 2010) and Miami (65 in 2013).


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