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So, looking back at the question of the 3A to majors conversion. First, these differences are almost certainly an overstatement of the difficulty distance between the 2 levels. There is a pretty substantial selection bias working in both directions: players in 3A who by chance are performing above their real talent level are more likely … Read more

Here are the baseline projected standings from my master spreadsheet, run on Monday and again this morning (Saturday, 8/2, two days after the trade deadline). This is the value that forms the Pct3 score for the Postseason Odds Forecast page. The differences are not entirely due to the trde deadline – the Brewers’ forecast removes … Read more

It is a new year and a new season. First cut at 2025 projections are here. I think my pitcher projections, in particular, have had too much regression to the mean in the last couple of years; I’ve cut back on that. My validation script says they got better (for 2022-24 pitchers with at least … Read more

Say Hey

In pre-season I wrote: the league leader was putting up numbers between 70-78, while the third-best mark was in the 54-64 range. My best guess right now is that by the end of 2023 we will see numbers about like that. At the end of the year we had Ronald Acuna leading the majors with … Read more

These are the dates when teams have first hit either a 100% or a 0% chance of making the playoffs in 2023 (according to my Playoff Odds; click on team name for their day-by-day chances). It is not the same thing as mathematically clinching or eliminated – but does represent the 1 in a million … Read more

Here are the spring training stats for 2023 (thorugh 3/15), compared with the (shortened) 2022 spring training totals. In Arizona Year AB H DB TP HR BB HBP SO SB CS 2022 9626 2565 535 60 410 919 154 2569 180 66 2023 9127 2463 509 72 318 1040 139 2392 268 60 And in … Read more

Floridahttps://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2023/2023pageGrprealALL.shtml Arizonahttps://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2023/2023pageCacrealALL.shtml

The stats projections for the 2023 season are now up. Actually they first went up around Christmas, but I’ve been doing an unusual amount of tinkering this time around. Updates should happen at least a couple of times a week between now and the start of the season – which kicks off on March 30 … Read more

I don’t know more than anyone else when games might start being played…but I do have my first look at team projections here. Just like last year, it looks like the Dodgers and Padres are the best two teams. The Padres collapsed, epically; the Dodgers made it to the LCS before losing to the (eventual … Read more