claydavenport.com
2015 was a bad year for stats.
I had intended to write this as a review of my 2015 projections – and I will get to that – but I ran into something else while working them and decided that this was actually a bigger deal.
I’ve got a program here which it seems I haven’t tun in several years, judging from the last modified datestamp, which calculates the accuracy of a bunch of run estimators. Here’s the chart for my own stat, Equivalent Runs, going back to 1955:
This is the root-mean-square error for the difference between actual runs scored and Equivalent Runs, for all major league teams, by year. EqR’s average error for the entire 1955-2016 time period was 20.54 runs; the error for 2016, by contrast, was 26.22, 28% worse than normal. It was EqR’s second-worst performance in these 60 years; only 1990, with a 26.59 rmse, was worse.
One of the dirty little secrets of run estimators is that they tend to correlate better with each other than they do with actual runs scored, as they are all using variations of themes to do their estimating. And so EqR’s problem was everybody’s problem. WOBA’s estimates were 26% than their 60-year average in 2016, and also had its worst season since 1990. BaseRuns was 21% worse, worst since 1985. My own version of BaseRuns was 26% worse than average, and had its absolute worst season of the period. Total Average was 17% worse than normal, Runs Created 12% worse than normal, Palmer’s Linear Weights 16% worse, OPS 11% worse. Anyway you slice it, the relationship between statistics and runs hit a little bit of a rough patch in 2015.
But the trouble doesn’t end there. The other key tool in our sabermetric box is to convert runs scored and allowed into wins and losses. Bill James’ Pythagorean formula still stands up rather well – the only real innovation is to let the exponent vary according to runs per game; I use the Pythagenpat idea, using RPG^0.285.
Like run estimators, the win estimator’s accuracy varies from year to year:
The 60-year average error here is 3.92 wins, but in 2016 it came in 4.65 – sixth worst over the time period. It has the appearance of a downward trend, which is almost entirely attributable to 1955 being such a bad outlier. The key contributors in 2016 were Toronto and Oakland, both of whom were more than 9 wins short of their Pythaorean expectations; meanwhile a full half-dozen teams beat their win expectation by more than 5 runs.
We can combine these two into a composite estimator. First, we need to get them onto a common scale. Normally, I would say runs, divided by 10, would get you in the neighborhood , but I am going to divide by 5 instead. I have two reasons for that:
- The ratio of the average errors, 20.54 for EqR and 3.92 for Pythagorean wins, is close to 5;
- I am using the error in runs estimation as a proxy to also stand in for the error in runs allowed estimation, which properly should be its own independent factor. For what it is worth, in 2015, the runs allowed estimates were even worse than the runs scored estimates – an RMSE of 26.8. So I am essentially doubling up on the runs and runs allowed, and then dividing by 10, which is a net of 5.
Here is that chart, then:
The combined score here is 9.89 wins, far worse than the 9.25 in 2005, which had ranked as the worst score since 1955.
Here’s the observation that got me looking into this. When I compared my pre-season projections from April 1 to reality, I found this:
– Correlation RMSE
Actual wins .334 10.11
1st-order wins .431 9.20
2nd-order wins .537 9.06
My statistical scores with reality were pretty terrible, IMO. I found it very interesting, though how much better the statistics were when I looked at first-order wins (i.e., Pythagorean wins – expected wins based on actual runs scored and allowed) and then even more so with second-order wins (calculating Pythagorean wins from expected runs scored and allowed instead of actual runs scored and allowed). I would expect that this may be commonplace, albeit less extreme – the breakdown in our stat/result relationship made those differences larger than usual.
So, in those respects, good riddance to 2015.
On August 14, 1910, the Chicago White Sox lost to the then-New York Highlanders 5-1. Making his debut in centerfield that day was a 21-year-old outfielder by the name of Edward Harrison “Dutch” Zwilling.
Zwilling had an odd little career. He played four seasons, for three different Chicago teams – the White Sox in 1910, the Cubs in 1916, and the Chicago Feds/Whales of the Federal League. In what we think of as the majors, he was a bust – 159 PA over the two seasons, for an Equivalent Average of about .186. But in the Federal League, though, he was a brief, shining star. For the 1914 Chi-Feds, he hit for a .315 EqA (sixth in the league) with 116 EqR (tied for third). In 1915 his numbers were almost the same – .313, 112 – and each of those was good for second in the league, to Benny Kauff. In 1914 he led the Feds in home runs (16), was second in hits and total bases, 3rd in RBI, 4th in doubles; in 1915 he led the league in RBI, and was second in doubles and homers. No one hit more home runs in the Federal League than he did.
When the very first game ever played in Wrigley Field (actually they called it Weeghman Park at first) started, Zwilling was standing in center field.
But Zwilling’s most memorable feat was that, for a little over 105 years, his name has brought the roll of major league players to its conclusion. But now, just as Hank Aaron had to yield the first position to David Aardsma in 2004, Zwilling must surrender his caboose slot to Tony Zych.
Zych was called up by the Mariners yesterday, and had a bit of a rough debut – 2 runs in 2 innings. He actually didn’t allow a run himself – sailing through his first two innings allowing a single and a walk, he gave up a leadoff double and single in his third inning, got pulled, and watched the next pitcher let them both come in.
Zych has been a pure relief pitcher through the minors. Orginially drafted by the Cubs int he 4th round in 2011, he was traded to the Mariners in April for a player to be named later; MLB shows two more trades between the Ms and Cubs since then with no mention of completing this deal. Anyway, this has easily been Zych’s best season, as he appears to have gained control over his 95-97 mph fastball.
By major league team:
Arizona: mid-A from South Bend to Kane County
Atlanta: high-A from Lynchburg to Carolina
Chicago Cubs: high-A from Daytona Beach to Myrtle Beach
: mid-A from Kane County to South Bend
:short-A from Boise to Eugene
Cincinnati: high-A from Bakerfield to Daytona (confusingly giving them both Dayton and Daytona)
Cleveland: high-A from Carolina to Lynchburg
Colorado: AAA from Colorado Springs to Albuquerque (!)
: short-A from Tri-Cities to Boise
Houston: AAA from Oklahoma City to Fresno
LA Dodgers: AAA from Albuquerque to Oklahoma City
: AA from Chattanooga to Tulsa.
The Dodgers stake a territorial claim to the Sooner State.
Milwaukee: AAA from Nashville to Colorado Springs
: AA from Huntsville to Biloxi
Minnesota: AA from New Britain to Chattanooga
NY Yankees: add Pulaski, Appalachian League
Oakland: AAA from Sacramento to Nashville
Pittsburgh: short-A from Jamestown to West Virginia (Morgantown). They already have a team in the SAL that calls itself West Virginia, which plays out of Charleston. That’s even more confusing than the Reds.
San Diego: short-A from Eugene to Tri-Cities
San Francisco: AAA from Fresno to Sacramento
Seattle: high A from High Desert to Bakersfield
Seattle: drops Rookie team in Pulaski
Texas: high A from Mytle Beach to High Desert
By minor league:
AAA
PCL
Albuquerque flips from the Dodgers to the Rockies
Colorado Springs goes from Colorado to Milwaukee
Fresno loses the Giants, but gains Astros
Nashville changes from Milwaukee to Oakland
Oklahoma City switches from Houston to the LA Dodgers
Sacramento changes from Oakland to San Francisco
AA
Eastern
New Britain changes from Minnesota to Colorado
Southern
Biloxi is a new team, for the Brewers
Chattanooga from LA Dodgers to Twins
Huntsville is abandoned by the Brewers
Texas
Tulsa changes from Colorado to the Dodgers
High A
Carolina
Carolina Mudcats go from Indians to Braves
Lynchburg goes from Braves to Indians
Myrtle Beach from Texas to the Cubs
California
Bakersfield changes from Cincinnati to Seattle
High Desert changes from Seattle to Texas
Florida
Daytona goes from the Cubs to Reds
Mid-A
Midwest
Kane County changes from Cubs to Diamondbacks
South Bend changes from Diamondbacks to Cubs
Short-A
New York-Penn
Jamestown is abandoned by the Pirates
West Virginia Black Bears is a new Pirate affiliate in Morgantown
Northwest
Boise changes from Cubs to Colorado
Eugene flips from San Diego to the Cubs
Tri-Cities goes from Colorado to San Diego
Rookie
Appalachian
Pulaski changes from Seattle to NY Yankees
Two totally new teams (Biloxi and West Virginia U.)
And two departing:
Huntsville, which had essentially no baseball history prior to getting a AA team, the Stars, in 1985. Prior to that, they had only had a class D team, which existed for the 1930 season in the Georgia-Alablam League.
Jamestown, which has had a team for all but six years since 1939; there were short gaps in 1958-60 and 1974-76. The stadium dates from 1941.
With the latest updates for Arizona – releasing Cody Ross and (correctly) sending Yasmany Tomas to the minors. Everything I’ve looked at all off-season screams that Lamb is better, and I suppose getting the starting nod will make this an especially happy Easter for him.
The first playoff odds page has been created for the 2015 season.
My picks: AL titles for the Orioles, online Indians, and As; wild cards for Seattle and Boston.
In the AL, division titles go to the Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers. The Brewers and Cubs take the wild card spots.
Also have updates to the 2015 Projections page, and the Current Team DT pages.
And finally, of course, the Spring Stats update every day.
To Ernie Banks, cure Mr. Cub, Hall of Famer.
JohnC
jcampbe1@bigpond.net.au
124.190.233.170
Submitted on 2015/01/17 at 11:27 am
Very interesting, capsule I remember seeing the first few years of this list some years ago on BP but have often wondered how it all panned out. You mention that Stanky is the lowest rated player in your Hall @ 311. Out of curiosity, decease who are the 10 lowest rated players who are in the actual Hall? If that list includes mostly oldtimers, drug can you also give the half dozen or so lowest rated players who have played since 1960? Thanks.
10 lowest rated players in real Hall:
George Kell 204
Lloyd Waner 191
Earle Combs 188
Chick Hafey 187
Jesse Haines 187
Edd Roush 186
Rick Ferrell 183
Heinie Manush 168
Ross Youngs 167
Tommy McCarthy 156
Lowest post-1960:
Lou Brock 229
Jim Rice 273
Bruce Sutter 277
Dave Winfield 289
Luis Aparicio 291
Billy Williams 291
Hoyt Wilhelm 302
Harmon Killebrew 304
Tony Perez 309
Rollie Fingers 313
The official Hall balloting will be announced in two days, and I only have two names on my inductee list for this year: Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez.
Of course, two names for me is by definition. I set up my own Hal of Fame rather diferently from the official Hall or from the way other listers (notably Jay Jaffe) do it.
Most objective Hall guides rely on comparing players to those who are already in the Hall of Fame. Mine does not. The only way it uses the existing Hall was to establish how many Hall of Fame players there should be. It turns out that if you look at the number of players in the Hall for their major league performance – not counting managers, executives, pioneers, or even the Negro League players – then you will find that there is roughly one Hall of Fame player for every 12 or so major league teams.
My own Hall starts with 1936, same as the real Hall. At that time, I show there should have been space for 72 players. For the first 5 years, I let my Hall add 5 players a year. I let it drop to 4 players ayear, and then to three players. Up until 1960, I consider any player who had been retired for five years; starting then, I pick up the idea of the 5/20 window – retired for 5 years, but not more than 20, in order to be considered.
At that point, the highest rated players available to fill the open spots are chosen.
In the current setup, with 30 teams in the majors, it means that my Hall is going to add 2.5 players per year, so I alternate between classes of 2 and 3. Last year (2014) was a three year class; this year, 2015, is just a two. I have the Hall rated for 224 players; there are currently 222 in. And, as I already said, my two for this year are Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. They are the two highest-rated players available who are not already in my Hall.
Which raises the question – how are the players rated? I use what I call my “MVP career” method, which is a contrived way of saying it is a weighted average of all of the seasons of a player’s career. The idea is borrowed from the way the MVP ballot works for a given season – where your first place votes count for 14 points, second place for 9, third for 8, and so on down to tenth place an 1 point. In my system, a player’s best season, as measured by WARP3, counts 14 times (gets a weight of 14, gets multiplied by 14, whatever). The second best season counts 9 times, third best counts eight times, and so on. The tenth best season – as well as all seasons beyond the tenth – count once.
The effect is that it rewards both peak ability and career length. A long career without a high peak, like, say, Harold Baines – that won’t make this Hall. A short sharp peak without length – Jack Chesbro, Norm Cash – won’t do it either.
The very best score ever, by this method, is 749 points, run up by Walter Johnson. Babe Ruth is right there with him, with 742. Because of the way I let the selection process travel in time – just picking the best available for that time – the standard for Hall entry varies. The lowest rated player in my Hall is Eddie Stanky, whose 311 score was enough to make the 1968 list. In recent years, it has generally taken a 400 score to be one of the top available players. Johnson and Martinez score at 520 and 507; they are easy picks. John Smoltz is at 411, and it is not clear when he will get in; he won’t make any of the 2016-19 picks, which are largely set. I’m thinkg 2021, depending on exactly when some currently active players retire. The 2018 list (which shows Johan Santana) and 2019 (Alex Rodriguez) could change if those guys play in 2015. Schilling is a point behind him, at 410.
Of course, if I had a real Hall of Fame ballot, I’d have to account for the fact that there are nine players on it who I have already put into my Hall of Fame. And, for that matter, that there are four more players on it who will make my Hall of Fame in the next four years. If I’m going to use all 10 slots, my rankings go like this:
Player MVP score OverallRank PositionRank
1. Barry Bonds 721 3 1 - LF (My Hall, 2013)
2. Roger Clemens 628 5 2 - SP 2013
3. Randy Johnson 520 28 10 - SP 2015
4. Pedro Martinez 507 34 13 - SP 2015
5. Jeff Kent 444 67 9 - 2B 2014
6. Alan Trammell 443 68 10 - SS 2002
7. Sammy Sosa 443 69 5 - RF 2016
8. Jeff Bagwell 439 73 8 - 1B 2011
9. Mark McGwire 428 83 10 - 1B 2007
10. Craig Biggio 426 87 11 - 2B 2016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Mike Mussina 426 88 27 - SP 2017
12. Mike Piazza 414 108 3 - C 2018
13. John Smoltz 411 115 39 - SP 2021?
14. Curt Schilling 410 119 40 - SP
15. Tim Raines 408 121 8 - LF 2008
16. Nomar Garciaparra 407 123 15 - SS 2009
17. Edgar Martinez 404 127 1 - DH 2002
18. Gary Sheffield 401 132 10 - RF
19. Brian Giles 355 224 17 - LF
20. Carlos Delgado 338 273 26 - 1B
21. Larry Walker 337 279 24 - RF
22. Don Mattingly 330 295 29 - 1B
23. Fred McGriff 312 368 36 - 1B
24. Lee Smith 294 459 9 - RP
25. Jason Schmidt 265 690 265 - SP
26. Tom Gordon 256 677 256 - SP
27. Cliff Floyd 234 820 61 - LF
28. Rich Aurilia 214 997 84 - SS
29. Jermaine Dye 208 1054 82 - RF
30. Darin Erstad 201 1142 75 - CF
31. Troy Percival 191 1250 63 - RP
32. Aaron Boone 159 1660 112 - 3B
33. Eddie Guardado 157 1678 90 - RP
34. Tony Clark 120 2332 149 - 1B
My full Hall list:
johnswa01 WALTER JOHNSON 1936 SP 748.9 alexape01 PETE ALEXANDER 1936 SP 625.1 wagneho01 HONUS WAGNER 1936 SS 593.2 mathech01 CHRISTY MATHEWSON 1936 SP 583.2 cobbty01 TY COBB 1936 CF 565.4 Runners-up 1936 walshed01 lajoina01 barnero01 collied01 speaktr01 walshed01 ED WALSH 1937 SP 555.9 lajoina01 NAP LAJOIE 1937 SB 552.2 barnero01 ROSS BARNES 1937 SB 529.3 collied01 EDDIE COLLINS 1937 SB 528.5 speaktr01 TRIS SPEAKER 1937 CF 513.7 Runners-up 1937 youngcy01 broutda01 connoro01 delahed01 ansonca01 youngcy01 CY YOUNG 1938 SP 511.2 broutda01 DAN BROUTHERS 1938 FB 509.6 connoro01 ROGER CONNOR 1938 FB 496.3 delahed01 ED DELAHANTY 1938 LF 461.8 ansonca01 CAP ANSON 1938 FB 459.4 Runners-up 1938 glassja01 kellyki01 dahlebi01 planked01 ewingbu01 glassja01 JACK GLASSCOCK 1939 SS 448.4 kellyki01 KING KELLY 1939 RF 424.9 dahlebi01 BILL DAHLEN 1939 SS 417.6 planked01 EDDIE PLANK 1939 SP 413.2 ewingbu01 BUCK EWING 1939 C 412.0 Runners-up 1939 flickel01 hamilbi01 whitede01 jacksjo01 davisge01 flickel01 ELMER FLICK 1940 RF 410.4 hamilbi01 BILLY HAMILTON 1940 CF 406.2 whitede01 DEACON WHITE 1940 C 406.2 jacksjo01 JOE JACKSON 1940 RF 396.7 davisge01 GEORGE DAVIS 1940 SS 395.4 Runners-up 1940 wadderu01 jennihu01 rusieam01 mcgrajo01 seweljo01 ruthba01 BABE RUTH 1941 RF 742.3 vanceda01 DAZZY VANCE 1941 SP 420.7 wadderu01 RUBE WADDELL 1941 SP 390.5 jennihu01 HUGHIE JENNINGS 1941 SS 390.4 Runners-up 1941 rusieam01 mcgrajo01 seweljo01 ruckena01 clarkjo01 rusieam01 AMOS RUSIE 1942 SP 389.4 mcgrajo01 JOHN MCGRAW 1942 TB 387.4 seweljo01 JOE SEWELL 1942 SS 385.3 ruckena01 NAP RUCKER 1942 SP 384.3 Runners-up 1942 clarkjo01 cicoted01 jackstr01 brownth01 childcu01 hornsro01 ROGERS HORNSBY 1943 SB 563.2 friscfr01 FRANKIE FRISCH 1943 SB 403.6 clarkjo01 JOHN CLARKSON 1943 SP 383.0 cicoted01 EDDIE CICOTTE 1943 SP 382.5 Runners-up 1943 jackstr01 brownth01 childcu01 wallabo01 bennech01 jackstr01 TRAVIS JACKSON 1944 SS 378.4 brownth01 THREE_FINGER BROWN 1944 SP 375.3 childcu01 CUPID CHILDS 1944 SB 374.5 wallabo01 BOBBY WALLACE 1944 SS 372.5 Runners-up 1944 bennech01 covelst01 dunlafr01 willine01 cochrmi01 gehrilo01 LOU GEHRIG 1945 FB 559.6 bennech01 CHARLIE BENNETT 1945 C 368.1 covelst01 STAN COVELESKI 1945 SP 368.1 dunlafr01 FRED DUNLAP 1945 SB 367.0 Runners-up 1945 willine01 cochrmi01 thompsa01 wrighge01 terrybi01 willine01 NED WILLIAMSON 1946 TB 366.6 cochrmi01 MICKEY COCHRANE 1946 C 364.3 thompsa01 SAM THOMPSON 1946 RF 363.9 wrighge01 GEORGE WRIGHT 1946 SS 363.3 Runners-up 1946 terrybi01 whitnji01 chancfr01 bancrda01 keelewi01 grovele01 LEFTY GROVE 1947 SP 428.3 hartnga01 GABBY HARTNETT 1947 C 384.6 ferrewe01 WES FERRELL 1947 SP 371.5 terrybi01 BILL TERRY 1947 FB 363.1 Runners-up 1947 whitnji01 chancfr01 bancrda01 keelewi01 richaha01 gehrich01 CHARLIE GEHRINGER 1948 SB 451.6 whitnji01 JIM WHITNEY 1948 SP 362.8 chancfr01 FRANK CHANCE 1948 FB 360.5 bancrda01 DAVE BANCROFT 1948 SS 355.8 Runners-up 1948 keelewi01 richaha01 faberre01 whitedo01 colliji01 hubbeca01 CARL HUBBELL 1949 SP 478.4 keelewi01 WILLIE KEELER 1949 RF 354.4 richaha01 HARDY RICHARDSON 1949 SB 354.0 faberre01 RED FABER 1949 SP 352.3 Runners-up 1949 whitedo01 colliji01 radboch01 jossad01 vaughhi01 whitedo01 DOC WHITE 1950 SP 352.1 colliji01 JIMMY COLLINS 1950 TB 351.8 simmoal01 AL SIMMONS 1950 LF 349.8 kleinch01 CHUCK KLEIN 1950 RF 346.1 Runners-up 1950 radboch01 jossad01 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 foxxji01 JIMMIE FOXX 1951 FB 463.3 cronijo01 JOE CRONIN 1951 SS 451.2 wanerpa01 PAUL WANER 1951 RF 440.9 warnelo01 LON WARNEKE 1951 SP 359.7 Runners-up 1951 radboch01 jossad01 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 dickebi01 BILL DICKEY 1952 C 412.5 lyonste01 TED LYONS 1952 SP 356.1 radboch01 CHARLES RADBOURN 1952 SP 344.7 jossad01 ADDIE JOSS 1952 SP 344.2 Runners-up 1952 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 heilmha01 bartedi01 ottme01 MEL OTT 1953 RF 481.3 hermabi01 BILLY HERMAN 1953 SB 397.0 greenha01 HANK GREENBERG 1953 FB 389.2 deandi01 DIZZY DEAN 1953 SP 378.7 Runners-up 1953 passecl01 ruffire01 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 vaughar01 ARKY VAUGHAN 1954 SS 489.2 medwijo01 JOE MEDWICK 1954 LF 414.6 passecl01 CLAUDE PASSEAU 1954 SP 371.7 ruffire01 RED RUFFING 1954 SP 346.4 Runners-up 1954 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 heilmha01 bartedi01 vaughhi01 HIPPO VAUGHN 1955 SP 343.6 longhe01 HERMAN LONG 1955 SS 343.3 mcginjo01 JOE MCGINNITY 1955 SP 342.1 heilmha01 HARRY HEILMANN 1955 RF 341.4 Runners-up 1955 bartedi01 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 gordojo01 JOE GORDON 1956 SB 422.4 applilu01 LUKE APPLING 1956 SS 413.1 waltebu01 BUCKY WALTERS 1956 SP 398.9 Runners-up 1956 bartedi01 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 dimagjo01 JOE DIMAGGIO 1957 CF 465.8 doerrbo01 BOBBY DOERR 1957 SB 401.4 bartedi01 DICK BARTELL 1957 SS 341.0 Runners-up 1957 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 nichoki01 boudrlo01 LOU BOUDREAU 1958 SS 469.3 carutbo01 BOB CARUTHERS 1958 SP 339.1 fletcar01 ART FLETCHER 1958 SS 337.5 Runners-up 1958 sislege01 hackst01 nichoki01 camildo01 wardmo01 mizejo01 JOHNNY MIZE 1959 FB 427.5 leonadu02 DUTCH LEONARD 1959 SP 357.3 sislege01 GEORGE SISLER 1959 FB 337.3 Runners-up 1959 hackst01 nichoki01 camildo01 wardmo01 griffcl01 hackst01 STAN HACK 1960 TB 336.7 nichoki01 KID NICHOLS 1960 SP 335.7 camildo01 DOLPH CAMILLI 1960 FB 333.2 Runners-up 1960 wardmo01 griffcl01 johnsbo01 luquedo01 tanneje01 newhoha01 HAL NEWHOUSER 1961 SP 470.3 kinerra01 RALPH KINER 1961 LF 356.6 stephve01 VERN STEPHENS 1961 SS 331.9 Runners-up 1961 johnsbo01 galanau01 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 fellebo01 BOB FELLER 1962 SP 502.6 robinja02 JACKIE ROBINSON 1962 SB 433.3 johnsbo01 BOB JOHNSON 1962 LF 326.5 Runners-up 1962 galanau01 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 troutdi01 DIZZY TROUT 1963 SP 368.8 camparo01 ROY CAMPANELLA 1963 C 353.3 galanau01 AUGIE GALAN 1963 LF 322.9 Runners-up 1963 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 lemonbo01 BOB LEMON 1964 SP 344.9 Runners-up 1964 reesepe01 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 reesepe01 PEE_WEE REESE 1965 SS 337.2 slaugen01 ENOS SLAUGHTER 1965 RF 316.9 Runners-up 1965 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 willite01 TED WILLIAMS 1966 LF 578.2 freylo01 LONNY FREY 1966 SB 311.6 Runners-up 1966 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 garvene01 NED GARVER 1967 SP 319.4 Runners-up 1967 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 ashburi01 RICHIE ASHBURN 1968 CF 436.4 stanked01 EDDIE STANKY 1968 SB 311.4 Runners-up 1968 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 rosenal01 musiast01 STAN MUSIAL 1969 LF 556.5 wynnea01 EARLY WYNN 1969 SP 345.8 Runners-up 1969 hodgegi01 schoere01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 piercbi02 BILLY PIERCE 1970 SP 339.5 hodgegi01 GIL HODGES 1970 FB 330.2 Runners-up 1970 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 spahnwa01 WARREN SPAHN 1971 SP 524.7 berrayo01 YOGI BERRA 1971 C 367.3 Runners-up 1971 foxne01 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 roberro01 ROBIN ROBERTS 1972 SP 472.4 koufasa01 SANDY KOUFAX 1972 SP 463.7 Runners-up 1972 frienbo01 foxne01 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 frienbo01 BOB FRIEND 1973 SP 347.1 foxne01 NELLIE FOX 1973 SB 338.2 Runners-up 1973 fordwh01 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 matheed01 EDDIE MATHEWS 1974 TB 483.5 mantlmi01 MICKEY MANTLE 1974 CF 468.3 Runners-up 1974 fordwh01 schoere01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 drysddo01 DON DRYSDALE 1975 SP 435.5 boyerke01 KEN BOYER 1975 TB 361.5 Runners-up 1975 fordwh01 schoere01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 fordwh01 WHITEY FORD 1976 SP 328.2 schoere01 RED SCHOENDIENST 1976 SB 325.3 Runners-up 1976 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 rosenal01 antonjo02 bankser01 ERNIE BANKS 1977 SS 448.3 bunniji01 JIM BUNNING 1977 SP 420.0 Runners-up 1977 pascuca02 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 rosenal01 clemero01 ROBERTO CLEMENTE 1978 RF 370.3 pascuca02 CAMILO PASCUAL 1978 SP 341.1 Runners-up 1978 mazerbi01 willsma01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 mayswi01 WILLIE MAYS 1979 CF 646.3 mazerbi01 BILL MAZEROSKI 1979 SB 323.5 willsma01 MAURY WILLS 1979 SS 319.1 Runners-up 1979 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 antonjo02 wilheho01 santoro01 RON SANTO 1980 TB 481.6 kalinal01 AL KALINE 1980 RF 397.5 Runners-up 1980 cepedor01 colavro01 cashno01 snidedu01 jacksla01 gibsobo01 BOB GIBSON 1981 SP 532.6 maricju01 JUAN MARICHAL 1981 SP 450.7 Runners-up 1981 cepedor01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 snidedu01 aaronha01 HANK AARON 1982 RF 526.9 robinfr02 FRANK ROBINSON 1982 RF 501.1 Runners-up 1982 cepedor01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 snidedu01 allendi01 DICK ALLEN 1983 TB 407.0 wynnji01 JIM WYNN 1983 CF 380.9 Runners-up 1983 robinbr01 cepedor01 torrejo01 osteecl01 colavro01 woodwi01 WILBUR WOOD 1984 SP 378.1 robinbr01 BROOKS ROBINSON 1984 TB 347.9 Runners-up 1984 cepedor01 torrejo01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 cepedor01 ORLANDO CEPEDA 1985 FB 346.5 torrejo01 JOE TORRE 1985 C 330.9 hunteca01 CATFISH HUNTER 1985 SP 322.5 Runners-up 1985 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 fregoji01 snidedu01 mccovwi01 WILLIE MCCOVEY 1986 FB 413.2 osteecl01 CLAUDE OSTEEN 1986 SP 317.3 Runners-up 1986 colavro01 cashno01 fregoji01 jacksla01 stottme01 bondsbo01 BOBBY BONDS 1987 RF 339.4 colavro01 ROCKY COLAVITO 1987 RF 315.7 Runners-up 1987 cashno01 fregoji01 jacksla01 stottme01 lolicmi01 tiantlu01 LUIS TIANT 1988 SP 368.0 smithre06 REGGIE SMITH 1988 RF 322.4 Runners-up 1988 belanma01 stargwi01 cashno01 fregoji01 jacksla01 benchjo01 JOHNNY BENCH 1989 C 468.5 perryga01 GAYLORD PERRY 1989 SP 458.5 Runners-up 1989 jenkife01 yastrca01 campabe01 matlajo01 belanma01 morgajo02 JOE MORGAN 1990 SB 538.3 jenkife01 FERGIE JENKINS 1990 SP 423.8 Runners-up 1990 yastrca01 palmeji01 campabe01 matlajo01 belanma01 yastrca01 CARL YASTRZEMSKI 1991 LF 420.1 palmeji01 JIM PALMER 1991 SP 416.2 carewro01 ROD CAREW 1991 SB 388.0 Runners-up 1991 campabe01 koosmje01 matlajo01 belanma01 stargwi01 seaveto01 TOM SEAVER 1992 SP 530.9 grichbo01 BOBBY GRICH 1992 SB 471.3 Runners-up 1992 rosepe01 campabe01 fostege01 bluevi01 koosmje01 niekrph01 PHIL NIEKRO 1993 SP 420.1 rosepe01 PETE ROSE 1993 LF 399.3 Runners-up 1993 campabe01 fostege01 bluevi01 jacksre01 ceyro01 carltst01 STEVE CARLTON 1994 SP 517.4 campabe01 BERT CAMPANERIS 1994 SS 370.9 Runners-up 1994 fostege01 bluevi01 conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 schmimi01 MIKE SCHMIDT 1995 TB 550.8 fostege01 GEORGE FOSTER 1995 LF 367.3 evansda01 DARRELL EVANS 1995 TB 364.6 Runners-up 1995 bluevi01 conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 hernake01 KEITH HERNANDEZ 1996 FB 410.6 bluevi01 VIDA BLUE 1996 SP 361.1 Runners-up 1996 conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 ceyro01 reuscri01 RICK REUSCHEL 1997 SP 363.6 conceda01 DAVE CONCEPCION 1997 SS 360.8 Runners-up 1997 evansdw01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 templga01 cartega01 GARY CARTER 1998 C 442.7 blylebe01 BERT BLYLEVEN 1998 SP 436.9 evansdw01 DWIGHT EVANS 1998 RF 358.6 Runners-up 1998 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 templga01 guerrpe01 yountro01 ROBIN YOUNT 1999 SS 427.0 brettge01 GEORGE BRETT 1999 TB 425.4 Runners-up 1999 ryanno01 tananfr01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 ryanno01 NOLAN RYAN 2000 SP 424.2 tananfr01 FRANK TANANA 2000 SP 375.7 suttodo01 DON SUTTON 2000 SP 350.8 Runners-up 2000 guidrro01 jacksre01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 guidrro01 RON GUIDRY 2001 SP 347.9 jacksre01 REGGIE JACKSON 2001 RF 345.9 Runners-up 2001 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 randowi01 smithoz01 OZZIE SMITH 2002 SS 469.7 trammal01 ALAN TRAMMELL 2002 SS 443.3 dawsoan01 ANDRE DAWSON 2002 CF 396.3 Runners-up 2002 violafr01 dykstle01 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 sandbry01 RYNE SANDBERG 2003 SB 455.9 violafr01 FRANK VIOLA 2003 SP 385.7 Runners-up 2003 dykstle01 murraed02 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 dykstle01 LENNY DYKSTRA 2004 CF 382.0 eckerde01 DENNIS ECKERSLEY 2004 SP 379.5 molitpa01 PAUL MOLITOR 2004 TB 369.5 Runners-up 2004 murraed02 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 boggswa01 WADE BOGGS 2005 TB 438.5 murraed02 EDDIE MURRAY 2005 FB 355.0 Runners-up 2005 whitalo01 langsma01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 hershor01 OREL HERSHISER 2006 SP 420.8 clarkwi02 WILL CLARK 2006 FB 411.1 goodedw01 DWIGHT GOODEN 2006 SP 406.7 Runners-up 2006 belleal01 whitalo01 langsma01 gossari01 templga01 ripkeca01 CAL RIPKEN 2007 SS 562.1 mcgwima01 MARK MCGWIRE 2007 FB 428.2 Runners-up 2007 gwynnto01 saberbr01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 gwynnto01 TONY GWYNN 2008 RF 426.1 saberbr01 BRET SABERHAGEN 2008 SP 419.6 raineti01 TIM RAINES 2008 LF 407.7 Runners-up 2008 finlech01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 langsma01 henderi01 RICKEY HENDERSON 2009 LF 545.4 bellja01 JAY BELL 2009 SS 398.0 Runners-up 2009 coneda01 finlech01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 larkiba01 BARRY LARKIN 2010 SS 442.5 alomaro01 ROBERTO ALOMAR 2010 SB 420.2 martied01 EDGAR MARTINEZ 2010 OT 404.2 Runners-up 2010 coneda01 finlech01 appieke01 belleal01 fernato01 brownke01 KEVIN BROWN 2011 SP 446.0 bagweje01 JEFF BAGWELL 2011 FB 439.0 Runners-up 2011 coneda01 finlech01 olerujo01 appieke01 belleal01 coneda01 DAVID CONE 2012 SP 380.8 finlech01 CHUCK FINLEY 2012 SP 373.9 olerujo01 JOHN OLERUD 2012 FB 373.6 Runners-up 2012 appieke01 belleal01 fernato01 palmera01 whitalo01 bondsba01 BARRY BONDS 2013 LF 720.8 clemero02 ROGER CLEMENS 2013 SP 628.2 Runners-up 2013 sosasa01 biggicr01 piazzmi01 schilcu01 appieke01 maddugr01 GREG MADDUX 2014 SP 577.1 thomafr04 FRANK THOMAS 2014 FB 444.8 kentje01 JEFF KENT 2014 SB 443.6 Runners-up 2014 sosasa01 biggicr01 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 johnsra05 RANDY JOHNSON 2015 SP 519.7 martipe02 PEDRO MARTINEZ 2015 SP 507.1 Runners-up 2015 sosasa01 biggicr01 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 griffke02 KEN GRIFFEY 2016 CF 458.4 sosasa01 SAMMY SOSA 2016 RF 443.2 biggicr01 CRAIG BIGGIO 2016 SB 425.8 Runners-up 2016 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 smoltjo01 schilcu01 mussimi01 MIKE MUSSINA 2017 SP 425.7 glavito02 TOM GLAVINE 2017 SP 415.3 Runners-up 2017 piazzmi01 smoltjo01 schilcu01 edmonji01 garcino01 rolensc01 SCOTT ROLEN 2018 TB 434.1 santajo01 JOHAN SANTANA 2018 SP 425.7 piazzmi01 MIKE PIAZZA 2018 C 414.3 Runners-up 2018 jonesch06 smoltjo01 schilcu01 edmonji01 garcino01 rodrial01 ALEX RODRIGUEZ 2019 SS 510.1 riverma01 MARIANO RIVERA 2019 RP 471.1 Runners-up 2019 hallaro01 heltoto01 jonesch06 smoltjo01 schilcu01
Still very much a work in progress…but as a present to everyone, story my first cut on 2015 projections are out.
Wrestling with unbelievable parity in the American League.
Kind of upstaged by today’s events, but I uploaded the 2014 Cuban stats to the site this weekend. Check under the “DTs by League” tab, and then change League to Cuban Serie Nacional.
I was working on a longer post to detail the fairly major change I made to the DT procedure for Cubans, but decided I kind of have to go now. So, short form and I’ll try to fill in the details at a later time.
So, first, a general word on the Cuban Serie Nacional, their top level league. The league consists of 16 teams, one for each of the country’s 15 provinces, plus one for the city of Havana. Until a few years it was one for each of the nation’s 14 provinces, plus two for Havana, but then the province of La Habana got split in two. They actually played with 17 teams for one year before axing one of Havana city’s two teams. Players generally play for their home region; there is little movement between teams.
The normal schedule length for the SN is 90 games, which allows for home-and-away three game series against each of the other 15 teams. The season runs roughly early November through March. In years with a World Baseball Classic, they have played just 45, sacrificing half the season to get their best players in front of the world. This past year – by that I mean the 2013/14 season, not the one that is currently being played – they played a 45 games schedule for all 16 teams, and then followed that with another 45 games between just the top 8 teams from the first half. It appears that some level of taking players from the bottom 8 teams was permitted. I’m honestly not sure how to handle the two halves. The stats listed under the link is just for the first half; the stats for the second half are listed here, under the “CB2” label. The second half had a slightly higher quality rating than the first half, which is reflected in the translations and part of why I didn’t just want to run them all together.
The quality rating for the league came in at .60, exactly halfway between my ratings for the high A leagues (.551) and AA (.642). The second half, with just the supplemented stronger teams rated as essentially AA (.63). That is stronger than I have rated the league in the past, but backed up by the performances of multiple players.
On the first run of the stats, I used the same DT method as last year, but took a close look at all the Cuban players who played outside of Cuba. For the first time, this included several players from the just-completed Cuban season, as a few Cuban players were allowed to play in Mexico and Japan. I compared the translation I made for their last three seasons in Cuba with those of their first three seasons after Cuba; I ignored players who had less than 200 total PA on either side of the transition; I ignored players who had a three-year or more layoff between their Cuban and American playing days.
I found that I was generally too pessimistic, especially in one particular category
EQA POW SPD Krt Wrt BABIP Average of Cuba DT .226 2 1 -1 -1 -13 Average non-Cuba DT .246 3 -1 0 -4 -2
The component scores reflect how many runs above or below average a player is based on a particular aspect of his performance. The Power score, for instance, reflects how many runs better than an average player he would be if his power – home runs and some doubles – were the only thing that was different between him and an average player over the course of 600 plate appearances.The SPD score is based on steals, triples, and doubles; the Krt is all about strikout rates; the Wrt is all about walks (and hit by pitch). The BABIP is about singles, and that is where my translations went wildly wrong in many cases. Yoennis Cespedes came to the US with a -17 BABIP , but he’s really been +2.
And it wasn’t simply that the translation program was too harsh – the BABIP numbers just didn’t match up. For the 30 players I tested, the correlations between Cuba BABIP and American BABIP was just .16. By contrast, POW had an .89 correlation, and SPD .77. EQA was at .55. The procedure was just a complete mess on this particular statistic.
I found, with testing, that I could make a much better estimate of the Cuban players’ American BABIP scores by looking at their other (Cuban) statistics. The regression equation that came out was
BABIP = -2 + 1.1*SPD + .30*POW + .49*Wrt + .20*Krt
Take Cespedes, for instance. The average of his last three years in Cuba was for a .244 EQA, and component scores of POW 9, SPD 3, Krt 2, Wrt -2, and BA -17. Apply the function above, and we get a new projected BABIP of +4.
Work that back into the statistics, the new translation for Cespedes looks like
AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP 593 136 32 3 24 49 100 93 79 9 2 849 .230 .291 .416 .244 68 9 3 2 -2 -17 593 171 28 3 24 49 100 100 86 9 2 785 .289 .344 .469 .278 88 8 1 2 -2 4 591 165 31 6 27 46 115 96 108 11 7 1202 .280 .335 .491 .278 89 13 2 -2 -2 2
the first line is the old way of doing the DT, for Cespedes’ 2009-2011 seasons. The second line is the revised way, and the third line is his combined 2012-2014 totals. (All have been adjusted to 650 PA, with the exception of the Outs column). Clearly – a much better fit.
It wasn’t just Cespedes who benefitted. The correlation between projected and actual BABIP improved from .16 to .43. The correlation between projected and actual EQA improved from .55 to .63. It just works better, and I guess I’d have to be crazy not to use it.
