claydavenport.com
Those who have known me for years may remember that I have my own Hall of Fame method set up, which works something like this.
Each player gets a score that is a modeled on the MVP ballot. It is a weighted average of his career WARP3 – your best season in WARP counts 14 times (multiply WARP for that season by 14), then your second best season counts 9, third best 8, fourth best 7, and so on down to tenth – your tenth best, and all future seasons beyond tenth, count for 1. It achieves a sort of balance – decide for yourselves how properly weighted – between peak seasons and career length. The highest score in history belongs to Babe Ruth, with a 745. The lowest score that go someone into my Hall was 294 (Ned Garver, in 1968). We can safely say it takes a score of 300 just to make the conversation, and a 400 to have real shot. However, the score alone is no guarantee, because of the eligibility rules.
Starting from 1936, the year the actual Hall began, I begin adding players to the my Hall. The best players available, according to the MVP carer score, get the slots. I do limit my choices to players who have been retired for between 5 and 20 years (same as the real Hall). I allow one Hall of Fame opening per 12 real team-seasons in major league history – this was approximately the number of real Hall slots when I first developed the system about 10 years ago. There were some complicated rules regarding how to catch up from 1936-60, but that is all out of the way now. With 30 major league teams playing today, it means that my Hall is going to grow by 5 players every two years, alternating between 2 and 3 player classes.
2016, as it happens, is a three player class, and I do give a place to three players on the genuine ballot – Ken Griffey, Mike Mussina, and Trevor Hoffman.
Griffey is on the ballot for the first time, has a 458 MVP score, which ranks sixth among center fielders, and is the third-highest score on the ballot. He’s in easily.
Mike Mussina has a 434 MVP score and 100 career WARP3; his MVP score is 17th among starting pitchers. He was the first runner-up on my 2014 ballot, did that again in 2015, and makes it in 2016.
Trevor Hoffman has a 429 MVP score, which makes him the #3 Relief pitcher – behind Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, and just ahead of Goose Gossage.
My runners-up this year start with Sammy Sosa (425; he will get over the top in 2018), followed by Gary Sheffield (425, makes it in 2020), then Jim Edmonds (414), Jeff Kent (403), and Nomar Garciaparra (398). Edmonds is the first runner-up in 2020, and looks to have a good chance for 2021 induction.
The problem I would have in filling out a real ballot is that there are 11 players on it who are already in my own Hall, plus two more who will make it by 2020, plus another couple of possibilities beyond that.
In 2002, I put Alan Trammell (455) in on the first ballot. I did the same for Mark McGwire (432) in 2007, and for Tim Raines (457) in 2008, and for Edgar Martinez (461) in 2010, and for Jeff Bagwell (395) in 2011.
In 2013, with two slots available, I inducted Barry Bonds (744) and Roger Clemens (600) – the second and fifth highest MVP-career scores of all time.
And then in 2014 I put in Mike Piazza (446), plus the three from this year.
If you pressed me for who to drop, I’d pick between Bagwell (whose 395 is the lowest score) and Hoffman (I think my relief pitcher ratings are skewed for recent years, so I have less confidence in the values).
Scores for players on the ballot not already mentioned: Garret Anderson (207), Brad Ausmus (217), Luis Castillo (164), David Eckstein (184), Troy Glaus (352, which makes him #20 among 3B), Mark Grudzielanek (167), Mike Hampton (255), Jason Kendall (321), Mike Lowell (243), Fred McGriff (310), Curt Schilling (385 – was 3rd runner-up in 2013, and fifth runner-up in 2014), Lee Smith (339), Mike Sweeney (171), Billy Wagner (374), Larry Walker (311), and Randy Winn (254).
My full Hall list
johnswa01 WALTER JOHNSON 1936 SP 666.2
wagneho01 HONUS WAGNER 1936 SS 560.2
alexape01 PETE ALEXANDER 1936 SP 548.2
cobbty01 TY COBB 1936 CF 545.5
lajoina01 NAP LAJOIE 1936 SB 511.6
Runners-up 1936 mathech01 collied01 speaktr01 walshed01 barnero01
mathech01 CHRISTY MATHEWSON 1937 SP 505.7
collied01 EDDIE COLLINS 1937 SB 497.8
speaktr01 TRIS SPEAKER 1937 CF 488.4
walshed01 ED WALSH 1937 SP 479.2
barnero01 ROSS BARNES 1937 SB 474.5
Runners-up 1937 broutda01 connoro01 delahed01 ewingbu01 whitede01
broutda01 DAN BROUTHERS 1938 FB 471.1
connoro01 ROGER CONNOR 1938 FB 462.7
delahed01 ED DELAHANTY 1938 LF 462.5
ewingbu01 BUCK EWING 1938 C 442.7
whitede01 DEACON WHITE 1938 C 441.4
Runners-up 1938 youngcy01 ansonca01 kellyki01 flickel01 mcgrajo01
youngcy01 CY YOUNG 1939 SP 438.8
ansonca01 CAP ANSON 1939 FB 428.8
kellyki01 KING KELLY 1939 RF 418.8
flickel01 ELMER FLICK 1939 RF 404.6
mcgrajo01 JOHN MCGRAW 1939 TB 401.0
Runners-up 1939 glassja01 bennech01 hamilbi01 dahlebi01 jennihu01
glassja01 JACK GLASSCOCK 1940 SS 397.9
bennech01 CHARLIE BENNETT 1940 C 397.5
hamilbi01 BILLY HAMILTON 1940 CF 387.4
dahlebi01 BILL DAHLEN 1940 SS 386.8
jennihu01 HUGHIE JENNINGS 1940 SS 378.9
Runners-up 1940 jacksjo01 willine01 planked01 colliji01 dunlafr01
ruthba01 BABE RUTH 1941 RF 744.7
vanceda01 DAZZY VANCE 1941 SP 374.1
jacksjo01 JOE JACKSON 1941 RF 369.0
willine01 NED WILLIAMSON 1941 TB 368.7
Runners-up 1941 planked01 colliji01 dunlafr01 thompsa01 childcu01
planked01 EDDIE PLANK 1942 SP 365.8
colliji01 JIMMY COLLINS 1942 TB 347.5
dunlafr01 FRED DUNLAP 1942 SB 347.3
thompsa01 SAM THOMPSON 1942 RF 346.4
Runners-up 1942 childcu01 cicoted01 seweljo01 heilmha01 wadderu01
hornsro01 ROGERS HORNSBY 1943 SB 537.0
cochrmi01 MICKEY COCHRANE 1943 C 391.2
friscfr01 FRANKIE FRISCH 1943 SB 370.1
childcu01 CUPID CHILDS 1943 SB 344.7
Runners-up 1943 cicoted01 seweljo01 heilmha01 wadderu01 ruckena01
cicoted01 EDDIE CICOTTE 1944 SP 344.5
seweljo01 JOE SEWELL 1944 SS 344.1
heilmha01 HARRY HEILMANN 1944 RF 343.0
wadderu01 RUBE WADDELL 1944 SP 342.9
Runners-up 1944 ruckena01 davisge01 hinespa01 chancfr01 brownth01
gehrilo01 LOU GEHRIG 1945 FB 513.6
ruckena01 NAP RUCKER 1945 SP 339.6
davisge01 GEORGE DAVIS 1945 SS 337.4
hinespa01 PAUL HINES 1945 CF 337.4
Runners-up 1945 chancfr01 brownth01 richaha01 wallabo01 covelst01
chancfr01 FRANK CHANCE 1946 FB 336.9
brownth01 THREE_FINGER BROWN 1946 SP 332.1
richaha01 HARDY RICHARDSON 1946 SB 331.7
wallabo01 BOBBY WALLACE 1946 SS 330.8
Runners-up 1946 covelst01 keelewi01 tiernmi01 rusieam01 veachbo01
hartnga01 GABBY HARTNETT 1947 C 414.3
grovele01 LEFTY GROVE 1947 SP 385.1
ferrewe01 WES FERRELL 1947 SP 334.8
covelst01 STAN COVELESKI 1947 SP 329.8
Runners-up 1947 keelewi01 tiernmi01 rusieam01 veachbo01 longhe01
gehrich01 CHARLIE GEHRINGER 1948 SB 410.9
keelewi01 WILLIE KEELER 1948 RF 329.1
tiernmi01 MIKE TIERNAN 1948 RF 327.9
rusieam01 AMOS RUSIE 1948 SP 327.7
Runners-up 1948 veachbo01 longhe01 sislege01 clarkjo01 bancrda01
hubbeca01 CARL HUBBELL 1949 SP 422.6
veachbo01 BOBBY VEACH 1949 LF 324.0
longhe01 HERMAN LONG 1949 SS 323.7
sislege01 GEORGE SISLER 1949 FB 321.6
Runners-up 1949 clarkjo01 bancrda01 terrybi01 sheckji01 whitnji01
simmoal01 AL SIMMONS 1950 LF 347.8
clarkjo01 JOHN CLARKSON 1950 SP 321.4
bancrda01 DAVE BANCROFT 1950 SS 317.1
terrybi01 BILL TERRY 1950 FB 315.7
Runners-up 1950 sheckji01 whitnji01 burkeje01 grohhe01 wheatza01
foxxji01 JIMMIE FOXX 1951 FB 438.0
cronijo01 JOE CRONIN 1951 SS 418.7
wanerpa01 PAUL WANER 1951 RF 417.4
johnsbo01 BOB JOHNSON 1951 LF 320.0
Runners-up 1951 warnelo01 camildo01 sheckji01 whitnji01 burkeje01
dickebi01 BILL DICKEY 1952 C 442.7
lyonste01 TED LYONS 1952 SP 320.2
warnelo01 LON WARNEKE 1952 SP 319.0
bartedi01 DICK BARTELL 1952 SS 318.7
Runners-up 1952 camildo01 sheckji01 whitnji01 burkeje01 grohhe01
ottme01 MEL OTT 1953 RF 513.8
hermabi01 BILLY HERMAN 1953 SB 374.1
greenha01 HANK GREENBERG 1953 FB 353.5
deandi01 DIZZY DEAN 1953 SP 345.3
Runners-up 1953 passecl01 hackst01 camildo01 sheckji01 whitnji01
vaughar01 ARKY VAUGHAN 1954 SS 446.9
medwijo01 JOE MEDWICK 1954 LF 392.0
passecl01 CLAUDE PASSEAU 1954 SP 330.9
hackst01 STAN HACK 1954 TB 319.4
Runners-up 1954 camildo01 sheckji01 whitnji01 burkeje01 grohhe01
camildo01 DOLPH CAMILLI 1955 FB 317.3
sheckji01 JIMMY SHECKARD 1955 LF 315.1
whitnji01 JIM WHITNEY 1955 SP 313.3
burkeje01 JESSE BURKETT 1955 LF 313.2
Runners-up 1955 grohhe01 cliftha01 wheatza01 galanau01 orourji01
gordojo01 JOE GORDON 1956 SB 380.0
applilu01 LUKE APPLING 1956 SS 372.1
waltebu01 BUCKY WALTERS 1956 SP 356.3
Runners-up 1956 grohhe01 cliftha01 wheatza01 galanau01 orourji01
dimagjo01 JOE DIMAGGIO 1957 CF 474.5
doerrbo01 BOBBY DOERR 1957 SB 382.3
grohhe01 HEINIE GROH 1957 TB 312.1
Runners-up 1957 cliftha01 wheatza01 galanau01 orourji01 clarkfr01
boudrlo01 LOU BOUDREAU 1958 SS 413.9
cliftha01 HARLOND CLIFT 1958 TB 311.9
wheatza01 ZACK WHEAT 1958 LF 310.4
Runners-up 1958 galanau01 orourji01 clarkfr01 faberre01 gosligo01
mizejo01 JOHNNY MIZE 1959 FB 407.3
leonadu02 DUTCH LEONARD 1959 SP 325.0
nichobi01 BILL NICHOLSON 1959 RF 324.5
Runners-up 1959 galanau01 orourji01 clarkfr01 faberre01 gosligo01
galanau01 AUGIE GALAN 1960 LF 310.1
orourji01 JIM O’ROURKE 1960 LF 309.4
clarkfr01 FRED CLARKE 1960 LF 309.3
Runners-up 1960 faberre01 gosligo01 ruffire01 jackstr01 seymocy01
newhoha01 HAL NEWHOUSER 1961 SP 423.7
kinerra01 RALPH KINER 1961 LF 354.0
stephve01 VERN STEPHENS 1961 SS 313.4
Runners-up 1961 ruffire01 kellech01 elliobo01 kleinch01 stanked01
fellebo01 BOB FELLER 1962 SP 448.2
robinja02 JACKIE ROBINSON 1962 SB 419.9
ruffire01 RED RUFFING 1962 SP 307.8
Runners-up 1962 kellech01 elliobo01 kleinch01 stanked01 rosenal01
camparo01 ROY CAMPANELLA 1963 C 379.5
troutdi01 DIZZY TROUT 1963 SP 335.5
kellech01 CHARLIE KELLER 1963 LF 306.8
Runners-up 1963 elliobo01 kleinch01 stanked01 rosenal01 peskyjo01
reesepe01 PEE_WEE REESE 1964 SS 327.9
Runners-up 1964 lemonbo01 elliobo01 kleinch01 stanked01 rosenal01
lemonbo01 BOB LEMON 1965 SP 307.7
elliobo01 BOB ELLIOTT 1965 TB 304.8
Runners-up 1965 kleinch01 stanked01 slaugen01 rosenal01 peskyjo01
willite01 TED WILLIAMS 1966 LF 587.6
stanked01 EDDIE STANKY 1966 SB 301.4
Runners-up 1966 slaugen01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 freylo01 brechha01
slaugen01 ENOS SLAUGHTER 1967 RF 295.7
Runners-up 1967 garvene01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 freylo01 brechha01
ashburi01 RICHIE ASHBURN 1968 CF 438.4
garvene01 NED GARVER 1968 SP 293.5
Runners-up 1968 rosenal01 peskyjo01 freylo01 brechha01 sainjo01
musiast01 STAN MUSIAL 1969 LF 572.0
wynnea01 EARLY WYNN 1969 SP 313.8
Runners-up 1969 hodgegi01 schoere01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 freylo01
snidedu01 DUKE SNIDER 1970 CF 318.1
piercbi02 BILLY PIERCE 1970 SP 308.9
Runners-up 1970 hodgegi01 schoere01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 brechha01
spahnwa01 WARREN SPAHN 1971 SP 470.2
berrayo01 YOGI BERRA 1971 C 397.8
Runners-up 1971 hodgegi01 foxne01 schoere01 rosenal01 peskyjo01
roberro01 ROBIN ROBERTS 1972 SP 420.5
koufasa01 SANDY KOUFAX 1972 SP 404.5
Runners-up 1972 frienbo01 hodgegi01 foxne01 schoere01 rosenal01
frienbo01 BOB FRIEND 1973 SP 307.9
hodgegi01 GIL HODGES 1973 FB 304.1
Runners-up 1973 foxne01 schoere01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 fordwh01
mantlmi01 MICKEY MANTLE 1974 CF 490.9
matheed01 EDDIE MATHEWS 1974 TB 457.0
Runners-up 1974 foxne01 schoere01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 fordwh01
drysddo01 DON DRYSDALE 1975 SP 383.1
boyerke01 KEN BOYER 1975 TB 370.8
Runners-up 1975 foxne01 schoere01 rosenal01 peskyjo01 fordwh01
foxne01 NELLIE FOX 1976 SB 300.7
schoere01 RED SCHOENDIENST 1976 SB 299.6
Runners-up 1976 rosenal01 fordwh01 colavro01 sainjo01 jacksla01
bankser01 ERNIE BANKS 1977 SS 414.6
bunniji01 JIM BUNNING 1977 SP 370.7
Runners-up 1977 pascuca02 rosenal01 fordwh01 colavro01 jacksla01
clemero01 ROBERTO CLEMENTE 1978 RF 363.2
wilheho01 HOYT WILHELM 1978 RP 310.5
Runners-up 1978 pascuca02 mazerbi01 fordwh01 colavro01 jacksla01
mayswi01 WILLIE MAYS 1979 CF 637.8
pascuca02 CAMILO PASCUAL 1979 SP 310.3
mazerbi01 BILL MAZEROSKI 1979 SB 298.5
Runners-up 1979 fordwh01 callijo01 colavro01 jacksla01 antonjo02
santoro01 RON SANTO 1980 TB 459.8
kalinal01 AL KALINE 1980 RF 377.8
Runners-up 1980 cepedor01 cashno01 fordwh01 callijo01 colavro01
gibsobo01 BOB GIBSON 1981 SP 467.3
maricju01 JUAN MARICHAL 1981 SP 389.8
Runners-up 1981 cepedor01 cashno01 killeha01 fordwh01 callijo01
aaronha01 HANK AARON 1982 RF 550.0
robinfr02 FRANK ROBINSON 1982 RF 477.7
Runners-up 1982 willibi01 cepedor01 freehbi01 cashno01 killeha01
wynnji01 JIM WYNN 1983 CF 421.5
allendi01 DICK ALLEN 1983 TB 410.7
Runners-up 1983 torrejo01 robinbr01 willibi01 cepedor01 freehbi01
torrejo01 JOE TORRE 1984 C 358.0
woodwi01 WILBUR WOOD 1984 SP 345.5
Runners-up 1984 robinbr01 willibi01 cepedor01 freehbi01 cashno01
munsoth01 THURMAN MUNSON 1985 C 350.7
robinbr01 BROOKS ROBINSON 1985 TB 344.9
willibi01 BILLY WILLIAMS 1985 LF 325.9
Runners-up 1985 cepedor01 whitero01 freehbi01 cashno01 hunteca01
mccovwi01 WILLIE MCCOVEY 1986 FB 373.7
cepedor01 ORLANDO CEPEDA 1986 FB 325.3
Runners-up 1986 whitero01 freehbi01 cashno01 hunteca01 hillejo01
bondsbo01 BOBBY BONDS 1987 RF 344.9
whitero01 ROY WHITE 1987 LF 319.4
Runners-up 1987 marshmi01 freehbi01 cashno01 hunteca01 hillejo01
tiantlu01 LUIS TIANT 1988 SP 345.9
stargwi01 WILLIE STARGELL 1988 LF 325.3
Runners-up 1988 smithre06 marshmi01 freehbi01 cashno01 hunteca01
benchjo01 JOHNNY BENCH 1989 C 505.3
yastrca01 CARL YASTRZEMSKI 1989 LF 416.6
Runners-up 1989 perryga01 jenkife01 tenacge01 campabe01 smithre06
morgajo02 JOE MORGAN 1990 SB 508.5
perryga01 GAYLORD PERRY 1990 SP 415.3
Runners-up 1990 palmeji01 jenkife01 tenacge01 campabe01 smithre06
carewro01 ROD CAREW 1991 SB 409.1
palmeji01 JIM PALMER 1991 SP 390.1
jenkife01 FERGIE JENKINS 1991 SP 382.9
Runners-up 1991 fingero01 tenacge01 campabe01 smithre06 marshmi01
grichbo01 BOBBY GRICH 1992 SB 473.2
seaveto01 TOM SEAVER 1992 SP 468.6
Runners-up 1992 rosepe01 fingero01 tenacge01 campabe01 fostege01
rosepe01 PETE ROSE 1993 LF 405.5
jacksre01 REGGIE JACKSON 1993 RF 395.6
Runners-up 1993 niekrph01 fingero01 tenacge01 campabe01 fostege01
carltst01 STEVE CARLTON 1994 SP 462.1
niekrph01 PHIL NIEKRO 1994 SP 375.3
Runners-up 1994 fingero01 tenacge01 conceda01 nettlgr01 cruzjo01
schmimi01 MIKE SCHMIDT 1995 TB 552.5
fingero01 ROLLIE FINGERS 1995 RP 368.9
evansda01 DARRELL EVANS 1995 TB 367.3
Runners-up 1995 tenacge01 conceda01 nettlgr01 cruzjo01 bellbu01
hernake01 KEITH HERNANDEZ 1996 FB 383.9
tenacge01 GENE TENACE 1996 C 367.2
Runners-up 1996 conceda01 nettlgr01 cruzjo01 lemonch01 bellbu01
evansdw01 DWIGHT EVANS 1997 RF 418.2
conceda01 DAVE CONCEPCION 1997 SS 359.5
Runners-up 1997 nettlgr01 cruzjo01 lemonch01 bellbu01 campabe01
cartega01 GARY CARTER 1998 C 474.6
blylebe01 BERT BLYLEVEN 1998 SP 422.2
nettlgr01 GRAIG NETTLES 1998 TB 358.1
Runners-up 1998 guerrpe01 cruzjo01 randowi01 lemonch01 bellbu01
brettge01 GEORGE BRETT 1999 TB 480.9
yountro01 ROBIN YOUNT 1999 SS 429.6
Runners-up 1999 ryanno01 fiskca01 tananfr01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01
ryanno01 NOLAN RYAN 2000 SP 403.9
fiskca01 CARLTON FISK 2000 C 403.7
gossari01 RICH GOSSAGE 2000 RP 389.5
Runners-up 2000 tananfr01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01 randowi01 lemonch01
whitalo01 LOU WHITAKER 2001 SB 373.6
mattido01 DON MATTINGLY 2001 FB 368.5
Runners-up 2001 tananfr01 puckeki01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01 randowi01
trammal01 ALAN TRAMMELL 2002 SS 454.8
smithoz01 OZZIE SMITH 2002 SS 415.2
dawsoan01 ANDRE DAWSON 2002 CF 383.1
Runners-up 2002 violafr01 tananfr01 puckeki01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01
sandbry01 RYNE SANDBERG 2003 SB 428.7
violafr01 FRANK VIOLA 2003 SP 373.1
Runners-up 2003 murraed02 tananfr01 puckeki01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01
molitpa01 PAUL MOLITOR 2004 TB 422.5
eckerde01 DENNIS ECKERSLEY 2004 SP 396.2
murraed02 EDDIE MURRAY 2004 FB 370.2
Runners-up 2004 tananfr01 puckeki01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01 randowi01
boggswa01 WADE BOGGS 2005 TB 493.2
phillto02 TONY PHILLIPS 2005 LF 392.4
Runners-up 2005 tananfr01 puckeki01 guerrpe01 cruzjo01 randowi01
belleal01 ALBERT BELLE 2006 LF 455.0
hershor01 OREL HERSHISER 2006 SP 383.2
clarkwi02 WILL CLARK 2006 FB 372.5
Runners-up 2006 tananfr01 goodedw01 puckeki01 jonesdo01 guerrpe01
ripkeca01 CAL RIPKEN 2007 SS 559.0
mcgwima01 MARK MCGWIRE 2007 FB 432.2
Runners-up 2007 saberbr01 gwynnto01 fernato01 tananfr01 goodedw01
raineti01 TIM RAINES 2008 LF 457.3
saberbr01 BRET SABERHAGEN 2008 SP 403.6
gwynnto01 TONY GWYNN 2008 RF 389.9
Runners-up 2008 finlech01 fernato01 tananfr01 goodedw01 puckeki01
henderi01 RICKEY HENDERSON 2009 LF 594.3
finlech01 CHUCK FINLEY 2009 SP 379.3
Runners-up 2009 coneda01 fernato01 tananfr01 goodedw01 puckeki01
martied01 EDGAR MARTINEZ 2010 OT 460.6
alomaro01 ROBERTO ALOMAR 2010 SB 437.6
larkiba01 BARRY LARKIN 2010 SS 435.8
Runners-up 2010 venturo01 coneda01 fernato01 appieke01 tananfr01
brownke01 KEVIN BROWN 2011 SP 409.9
bagweje01 JEFF BAGWELL 2011 FB 395.2
Runners-up 2011 venturo01 olerujo01 coneda01 fernato01 appieke01
willibe02 BERNIE WILLIAMS 2012 CF 406.4
venturo01 ROBIN VENTURA 2012 TB 382.1
olerujo01 JOHN OLERUD 2012 FB 379.6
Runners-up 2012 coneda01 fernato01 appieke01 tananfr01 palmera01
bondsba01 BARRY BONDS 2013 LF 744.2
clemero02 ROGER CLEMENS 2013 SP 600.2
Runners-up 2013 piazzmi01 sosasa01 schilcu01 coneda01 fernato01
maddugr01 GREG MADDUX 2014 SP 534.2
thomafr04 FRANK THOMAS 2014 FB 470.2
piazzmi01 MIKE PIAZZA 2014 C 445.7
Runners-up 2014 mussimi01 sosasa01 kentje01 gonzalu01 schilcu01
johnsra05 RANDY JOHNSON 2015 SP 494.9
martipe02 PEDRO MARTINEZ 2015 SP 483.5
Runners-up 2015 mussimi01 sosasa01 sheffga01 kentje01 garcino01
griffke02 KEN GRIFFEY 2016 CF 457.7
mussimi01 MIKE MUSSINA 2016 SP 433.9
hoffmtr01 TREVOR HOFFMAN 2016 RP 428.6
Runners-up 2016 sosasa01 sheffga01 edmonji01 kentje01 garcino01
rodriiv01 IVAN RODRIGUEZ 2017 C 483.7
ramirma02 MANNY RAMIREZ 2017 LF 433.2
Runners-up 2017 posadjo01 sosasa01 sheffga01 edmonji01 kentje01
rolensc01 SCOTT ROLEN 2018 TB 428.6
posadjo01 JORGE POSADA 2018 C 428.5
sosasa01 SAMMY SOSA 2018 RF 425.3
Runners-up 2018 sheffga01 santajo01 edmonji01 jonesch06 kentje01
riverma01 MARIANO RIVERA 2019 RP 594.9
hallaro01 ROY HALLADAY 2019 SP 451.8
Runners-up 2019 sheffga01 santajo01 edmonji01 heltoto01 jonesch06
giambja01 JASON GIAMBI 2020 FB 443.8
sheffga01 GARY SHEFFIELD 2020 RF 424.6
santajo01 JOHAN SANTANA 2020 SP 415.1
Runners-up 2020 edmonji01 heltoto01 jonesch06 kentje01 thomeji01
2015 was a bad year for stats.
I had intended to write this as a review of my 2015 projections – and I will get to that – but I ran into something else while working them and decided that this was actually a bigger deal.
I’ve got a program here which it seems I haven’t tun in several years, judging from the last modified datestamp, which calculates the accuracy of a bunch of run estimators. Here’s the chart for my own stat, Equivalent Runs, going back to 1955:
This is the root-mean-square error for the difference between actual runs scored and Equivalent Runs, for all major league teams, by year. EqR’s average error for the entire 1955-2016 time period was 20.54 runs; the error for 2016, by contrast, was 26.22, 28% worse than normal. It was EqR’s second-worst performance in these 60 years; only 1990, with a 26.59 rmse, was worse.
One of the dirty little secrets of run estimators is that they tend to correlate better with each other than they do with actual runs scored, as they are all using variations of themes to do their estimating. And so EqR’s problem was everybody’s problem. WOBA’s estimates were 26% than their 60-year average in 2016, and also had its worst season since 1990. BaseRuns was 21% worse, worst since 1985. My own version of BaseRuns was 26% worse than average, and had its absolute worst season of the period. Total Average was 17% worse than normal, Runs Created 12% worse than normal, Palmer’s Linear Weights 16% worse, OPS 11% worse. Anyway you slice it, the relationship between statistics and runs hit a little bit of a rough patch in 2015.
But the trouble doesn’t end there. The other key tool in our sabermetric box is to convert runs scored and allowed into wins and losses. Bill James’ Pythagorean formula still stands up rather well – the only real innovation is to let the exponent vary according to runs per game; I use the Pythagenpat idea, using RPG^0.285.
Like run estimators, the win estimator’s accuracy varies from year to year:
The 60-year average error here is 3.92 wins, but in 2016 it came in 4.65 – sixth worst over the time period. It has the appearance of a downward trend, which is almost entirely attributable to 1955 being such a bad outlier. The key contributors in 2016 were Toronto and Oakland, both of whom were more than 9 wins short of their Pythaorean expectations; meanwhile a full half-dozen teams beat their win expectation by more than 5 runs.
We can combine these two into a composite estimator. First, we need to get them onto a common scale. Normally, I would say runs, divided by 10, would get you in the neighborhood , but I am going to divide by 5 instead. I have two reasons for that:
- The ratio of the average errors, 20.54 for EqR and 3.92 for Pythagorean wins, is close to 5;
- I am using the error in runs estimation as a proxy to also stand in for the error in runs allowed estimation, which properly should be its own independent factor. For what it is worth, in 2015, the runs allowed estimates were even worse than the runs scored estimates – an RMSE of 26.8. So I am essentially doubling up on the runs and runs allowed, and then dividing by 10, which is a net of 5.
Here is that chart, then:
The combined score here is 9.89 wins, far worse than the 9.25 in 2005, which had ranked as the worst score since 1955.
Here’s the observation that got me looking into this. When I compared my pre-season projections from April 1 to reality, I found this:
– Correlation RMSE
Actual wins .334 10.11
1st-order wins .431 9.20
2nd-order wins .537 9.06
My statistical scores with reality were pretty terrible, IMO. I found it very interesting, though how much better the statistics were when I looked at first-order wins (i.e., Pythagorean wins – expected wins based on actual runs scored and allowed) and then even more so with second-order wins (calculating Pythagorean wins from expected runs scored and allowed instead of actual runs scored and allowed). I would expect that this may be commonplace, albeit less extreme – the breakdown in our stat/result relationship made those differences larger than usual.
So, in those respects, good riddance to 2015.
On August 14, 1910, the Chicago White Sox lost to the then-New York Highlanders 5-1. Making his debut in centerfield that day was a 21-year-old outfielder by the name of Edward Harrison “Dutch” Zwilling.
Zwilling had an odd little career. He played four seasons, for three different Chicago teams – the White Sox in 1910, the Cubs in 1916, and the Chicago Feds/Whales of the Federal League. In what we think of as the majors, he was a bust – 159 PA over the two seasons, for an Equivalent Average of about .186. But in the Federal League, though, he was a brief, shining star. For the 1914 Chi-Feds, he hit for a .315 EqA (sixth in the league) with 116 EqR (tied for third). In 1915 his numbers were almost the same – .313, 112 – and each of those was good for second in the league, to Benny Kauff. In 1914 he led the Feds in home runs (16), was second in hits and total bases, 3rd in RBI, 4th in doubles; in 1915 he led the league in RBI, and was second in doubles and homers. No one hit more home runs in the Federal League than he did.
When the very first game ever played in Wrigley Field (actually they called it Weeghman Park at first) started, Zwilling was standing in center field.
But Zwilling’s most memorable feat was that, for a little over 105 years, his name has brought the roll of major league players to its conclusion. But now, just as Hank Aaron had to yield the first position to David Aardsma in 2004, Zwilling must surrender his caboose slot to Tony Zych.
Zych was called up by the Mariners yesterday, and had a bit of a rough debut – 2 runs in 2 innings. He actually didn’t allow a run himself – sailing through his first two innings allowing a single and a walk, he gave up a leadoff double and single in his third inning, got pulled, and watched the next pitcher let them both come in.
Zych has been a pure relief pitcher through the minors. Orginially drafted by the Cubs int he 4th round in 2011, he was traded to the Mariners in April for a player to be named later; MLB shows two more trades between the Ms and Cubs since then with no mention of completing this deal. Anyway, this has easily been Zych’s best season, as he appears to have gained control over his 95-97 mph fastball.
By major league team:
Arizona: mid-A from South Bend to Kane County
Atlanta: high-A from Lynchburg to Carolina
Chicago Cubs: high-A from Daytona Beach to Myrtle Beach
: mid-A from Kane County to South Bend
:short-A from Boise to Eugene
Cincinnati: high-A from Bakerfield to Daytona (confusingly giving them both Dayton and Daytona)
Cleveland: high-A from Carolina to Lynchburg
Colorado: AAA from Colorado Springs to Albuquerque (!)
: short-A from Tri-Cities to Boise
Houston: AAA from Oklahoma City to Fresno
LA Dodgers: AAA from Albuquerque to Oklahoma City
: AA from Chattanooga to Tulsa.
The Dodgers stake a territorial claim to the Sooner State.
Milwaukee: AAA from Nashville to Colorado Springs
: AA from Huntsville to Biloxi
Minnesota: AA from New Britain to Chattanooga
NY Yankees: add Pulaski, Appalachian League
Oakland: AAA from Sacramento to Nashville
Pittsburgh: short-A from Jamestown to West Virginia (Morgantown). They already have a team in the SAL that calls itself West Virginia, which plays out of Charleston. That’s even more confusing than the Reds.
San Diego: short-A from Eugene to Tri-Cities
San Francisco: AAA from Fresno to Sacramento
Seattle: high A from High Desert to Bakersfield
Seattle: drops Rookie team in Pulaski
Texas: high A from Mytle Beach to High Desert
By minor league:
AAA
PCL
Albuquerque flips from the Dodgers to the Rockies
Colorado Springs goes from Colorado to Milwaukee
Fresno loses the Giants, but gains Astros
Nashville changes from Milwaukee to Oakland
Oklahoma City switches from Houston to the LA Dodgers
Sacramento changes from Oakland to San Francisco
AA
Eastern
New Britain changes from Minnesota to Colorado
Southern
Biloxi is a new team, for the Brewers
Chattanooga from LA Dodgers to Twins
Huntsville is abandoned by the Brewers
Texas
Tulsa changes from Colorado to the Dodgers
High A
Carolina
Carolina Mudcats go from Indians to Braves
Lynchburg goes from Braves to Indians
Myrtle Beach from Texas to the Cubs
California
Bakersfield changes from Cincinnati to Seattle
High Desert changes from Seattle to Texas
Florida
Daytona goes from the Cubs to Reds
Mid-A
Midwest
Kane County changes from Cubs to Diamondbacks
South Bend changes from Diamondbacks to Cubs
Short-A
New York-Penn
Jamestown is abandoned by the Pirates
West Virginia Black Bears is a new Pirate affiliate in Morgantown
Northwest
Boise changes from Cubs to Colorado
Eugene flips from San Diego to the Cubs
Tri-Cities goes from Colorado to San Diego
Rookie
Appalachian
Pulaski changes from Seattle to NY Yankees
Two totally new teams (Biloxi and West Virginia U.)
And two departing:
Huntsville, which had essentially no baseball history prior to getting a AA team, the Stars, in 1985. Prior to that, they had only had a class D team, which existed for the 1930 season in the Georgia-Alablam League.
Jamestown, which has had a team for all but six years since 1939; there were short gaps in 1958-60 and 1974-76. The stadium dates from 1941.
With the latest updates for Arizona – releasing Cody Ross and (correctly) sending Yasmany Tomas to the minors. Everything I’ve looked at all off-season screams that Lamb is better, and I suppose getting the starting nod will make this an especially happy Easter for him.
The first playoff odds page has been created for the 2015 season.
My picks: AL titles for the Orioles, online Indians, and As; wild cards for Seattle and Boston.
In the AL, division titles go to the Nationals, Cardinals, and Dodgers. The Brewers and Cubs take the wild card spots.
Also have updates to the 2015 Projections page, and the Current Team DT pages.
And finally, of course, the Spring Stats update every day.
To Ernie Banks, cure Mr. Cub, Hall of Famer.
JohnC
jcampbe1@bigpond.net.au
124.190.233.170
Submitted on 2015/01/17 at 11:27 am
Very interesting, capsule I remember seeing the first few years of this list some years ago on BP but have often wondered how it all panned out. You mention that Stanky is the lowest rated player in your Hall @ 311. Out of curiosity, decease who are the 10 lowest rated players who are in the actual Hall? If that list includes mostly oldtimers, drug can you also give the half dozen or so lowest rated players who have played since 1960? Thanks.
10 lowest rated players in real Hall:
George Kell 204
Lloyd Waner 191
Earle Combs 188
Chick Hafey 187
Jesse Haines 187
Edd Roush 186
Rick Ferrell 183
Heinie Manush 168
Ross Youngs 167
Tommy McCarthy 156
Lowest post-1960:
Lou Brock 229
Jim Rice 273
Bruce Sutter 277
Dave Winfield 289
Luis Aparicio 291
Billy Williams 291
Hoyt Wilhelm 302
Harmon Killebrew 304
Tony Perez 309
Rollie Fingers 313
The official Hall balloting will be announced in two days, and I only have two names on my inductee list for this year: Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez.
Of course, two names for me is by definition. I set up my own Hal of Fame rather diferently from the official Hall or from the way other listers (notably Jay Jaffe) do it.
Most objective Hall guides rely on comparing players to those who are already in the Hall of Fame. Mine does not. The only way it uses the existing Hall was to establish how many Hall of Fame players there should be. It turns out that if you look at the number of players in the Hall for their major league performance – not counting managers, executives, pioneers, or even the Negro League players – then you will find that there is roughly one Hall of Fame player for every 12 or so major league teams.
My own Hall starts with 1936, same as the real Hall. At that time, I show there should have been space for 72 players. For the first 5 years, I let my Hall add 5 players a year. I let it drop to 4 players ayear, and then to three players. Up until 1960, I consider any player who had been retired for five years; starting then, I pick up the idea of the 5/20 window – retired for 5 years, but not more than 20, in order to be considered.
At that point, the highest rated players available to fill the open spots are chosen.
In the current setup, with 30 teams in the majors, it means that my Hall is going to add 2.5 players per year, so I alternate between classes of 2 and 3. Last year (2014) was a three year class; this year, 2015, is just a two. I have the Hall rated for 224 players; there are currently 222 in. And, as I already said, my two for this year are Pedro Martinez and Randy Johnson. They are the two highest-rated players available who are not already in my Hall.
Which raises the question – how are the players rated? I use what I call my “MVP career” method, which is a contrived way of saying it is a weighted average of all of the seasons of a player’s career. The idea is borrowed from the way the MVP ballot works for a given season – where your first place votes count for 14 points, second place for 9, third for 8, and so on down to tenth place an 1 point. In my system, a player’s best season, as measured by WARP3, counts 14 times (gets a weight of 14, gets multiplied by 14, whatever). The second best season counts 9 times, third best counts eight times, and so on. The tenth best season – as well as all seasons beyond the tenth – count once.
The effect is that it rewards both peak ability and career length. A long career without a high peak, like, say, Harold Baines – that won’t make this Hall. A short sharp peak without length – Jack Chesbro, Norm Cash – won’t do it either.
The very best score ever, by this method, is 749 points, run up by Walter Johnson. Babe Ruth is right there with him, with 742. Because of the way I let the selection process travel in time – just picking the best available for that time – the standard for Hall entry varies. The lowest rated player in my Hall is Eddie Stanky, whose 311 score was enough to make the 1968 list. In recent years, it has generally taken a 400 score to be one of the top available players. Johnson and Martinez score at 520 and 507; they are easy picks. John Smoltz is at 411, and it is not clear when he will get in; he won’t make any of the 2016-19 picks, which are largely set. I’m thinkg 2021, depending on exactly when some currently active players retire. The 2018 list (which shows Johan Santana) and 2019 (Alex Rodriguez) could change if those guys play in 2015. Schilling is a point behind him, at 410.
Of course, if I had a real Hall of Fame ballot, I’d have to account for the fact that there are nine players on it who I have already put into my Hall of Fame. And, for that matter, that there are four more players on it who will make my Hall of Fame in the next four years. If I’m going to use all 10 slots, my rankings go like this:
Player MVP score OverallRank PositionRank
1. Barry Bonds 721 3 1 - LF (My Hall, 2013)
2. Roger Clemens 628 5 2 - SP 2013
3. Randy Johnson 520 28 10 - SP 2015
4. Pedro Martinez 507 34 13 - SP 2015
5. Jeff Kent 444 67 9 - 2B 2014
6. Alan Trammell 443 68 10 - SS 2002
7. Sammy Sosa 443 69 5 - RF 2016
8. Jeff Bagwell 439 73 8 - 1B 2011
9. Mark McGwire 428 83 10 - 1B 2007
10. Craig Biggio 426 87 11 - 2B 2016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
11. Mike Mussina 426 88 27 - SP 2017
12. Mike Piazza 414 108 3 - C 2018
13. John Smoltz 411 115 39 - SP 2021?
14. Curt Schilling 410 119 40 - SP
15. Tim Raines 408 121 8 - LF 2008
16. Nomar Garciaparra 407 123 15 - SS 2009
17. Edgar Martinez 404 127 1 - DH 2002
18. Gary Sheffield 401 132 10 - RF
19. Brian Giles 355 224 17 - LF
20. Carlos Delgado 338 273 26 - 1B
21. Larry Walker 337 279 24 - RF
22. Don Mattingly 330 295 29 - 1B
23. Fred McGriff 312 368 36 - 1B
24. Lee Smith 294 459 9 - RP
25. Jason Schmidt 265 690 265 - SP
26. Tom Gordon 256 677 256 - SP
27. Cliff Floyd 234 820 61 - LF
28. Rich Aurilia 214 997 84 - SS
29. Jermaine Dye 208 1054 82 - RF
30. Darin Erstad 201 1142 75 - CF
31. Troy Percival 191 1250 63 - RP
32. Aaron Boone 159 1660 112 - 3B
33. Eddie Guardado 157 1678 90 - RP
34. Tony Clark 120 2332 149 - 1B
My full Hall list:
johnswa01 WALTER JOHNSON 1936 SP 748.9 alexape01 PETE ALEXANDER 1936 SP 625.1 wagneho01 HONUS WAGNER 1936 SS 593.2 mathech01 CHRISTY MATHEWSON 1936 SP 583.2 cobbty01 TY COBB 1936 CF 565.4 Runners-up 1936 walshed01 lajoina01 barnero01 collied01 speaktr01 walshed01 ED WALSH 1937 SP 555.9 lajoina01 NAP LAJOIE 1937 SB 552.2 barnero01 ROSS BARNES 1937 SB 529.3 collied01 EDDIE COLLINS 1937 SB 528.5 speaktr01 TRIS SPEAKER 1937 CF 513.7 Runners-up 1937 youngcy01 broutda01 connoro01 delahed01 ansonca01 youngcy01 CY YOUNG 1938 SP 511.2 broutda01 DAN BROUTHERS 1938 FB 509.6 connoro01 ROGER CONNOR 1938 FB 496.3 delahed01 ED DELAHANTY 1938 LF 461.8 ansonca01 CAP ANSON 1938 FB 459.4 Runners-up 1938 glassja01 kellyki01 dahlebi01 planked01 ewingbu01 glassja01 JACK GLASSCOCK 1939 SS 448.4 kellyki01 KING KELLY 1939 RF 424.9 dahlebi01 BILL DAHLEN 1939 SS 417.6 planked01 EDDIE PLANK 1939 SP 413.2 ewingbu01 BUCK EWING 1939 C 412.0 Runners-up 1939 flickel01 hamilbi01 whitede01 jacksjo01 davisge01 flickel01 ELMER FLICK 1940 RF 410.4 hamilbi01 BILLY HAMILTON 1940 CF 406.2 whitede01 DEACON WHITE 1940 C 406.2 jacksjo01 JOE JACKSON 1940 RF 396.7 davisge01 GEORGE DAVIS 1940 SS 395.4 Runners-up 1940 wadderu01 jennihu01 rusieam01 mcgrajo01 seweljo01 ruthba01 BABE RUTH 1941 RF 742.3 vanceda01 DAZZY VANCE 1941 SP 420.7 wadderu01 RUBE WADDELL 1941 SP 390.5 jennihu01 HUGHIE JENNINGS 1941 SS 390.4 Runners-up 1941 rusieam01 mcgrajo01 seweljo01 ruckena01 clarkjo01 rusieam01 AMOS RUSIE 1942 SP 389.4 mcgrajo01 JOHN MCGRAW 1942 TB 387.4 seweljo01 JOE SEWELL 1942 SS 385.3 ruckena01 NAP RUCKER 1942 SP 384.3 Runners-up 1942 clarkjo01 cicoted01 jackstr01 brownth01 childcu01 hornsro01 ROGERS HORNSBY 1943 SB 563.2 friscfr01 FRANKIE FRISCH 1943 SB 403.6 clarkjo01 JOHN CLARKSON 1943 SP 383.0 cicoted01 EDDIE CICOTTE 1943 SP 382.5 Runners-up 1943 jackstr01 brownth01 childcu01 wallabo01 bennech01 jackstr01 TRAVIS JACKSON 1944 SS 378.4 brownth01 THREE_FINGER BROWN 1944 SP 375.3 childcu01 CUPID CHILDS 1944 SB 374.5 wallabo01 BOBBY WALLACE 1944 SS 372.5 Runners-up 1944 bennech01 covelst01 dunlafr01 willine01 cochrmi01 gehrilo01 LOU GEHRIG 1945 FB 559.6 bennech01 CHARLIE BENNETT 1945 C 368.1 covelst01 STAN COVELESKI 1945 SP 368.1 dunlafr01 FRED DUNLAP 1945 SB 367.0 Runners-up 1945 willine01 cochrmi01 thompsa01 wrighge01 terrybi01 willine01 NED WILLIAMSON 1946 TB 366.6 cochrmi01 MICKEY COCHRANE 1946 C 364.3 thompsa01 SAM THOMPSON 1946 RF 363.9 wrighge01 GEORGE WRIGHT 1946 SS 363.3 Runners-up 1946 terrybi01 whitnji01 chancfr01 bancrda01 keelewi01 grovele01 LEFTY GROVE 1947 SP 428.3 hartnga01 GABBY HARTNETT 1947 C 384.6 ferrewe01 WES FERRELL 1947 SP 371.5 terrybi01 BILL TERRY 1947 FB 363.1 Runners-up 1947 whitnji01 chancfr01 bancrda01 keelewi01 richaha01 gehrich01 CHARLIE GEHRINGER 1948 SB 451.6 whitnji01 JIM WHITNEY 1948 SP 362.8 chancfr01 FRANK CHANCE 1948 FB 360.5 bancrda01 DAVE BANCROFT 1948 SS 355.8 Runners-up 1948 keelewi01 richaha01 faberre01 whitedo01 colliji01 hubbeca01 CARL HUBBELL 1949 SP 478.4 keelewi01 WILLIE KEELER 1949 RF 354.4 richaha01 HARDY RICHARDSON 1949 SB 354.0 faberre01 RED FABER 1949 SP 352.3 Runners-up 1949 whitedo01 colliji01 radboch01 jossad01 vaughhi01 whitedo01 DOC WHITE 1950 SP 352.1 colliji01 JIMMY COLLINS 1950 TB 351.8 simmoal01 AL SIMMONS 1950 LF 349.8 kleinch01 CHUCK KLEIN 1950 RF 346.1 Runners-up 1950 radboch01 jossad01 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 foxxji01 JIMMIE FOXX 1951 FB 463.3 cronijo01 JOE CRONIN 1951 SS 451.2 wanerpa01 PAUL WANER 1951 RF 440.9 warnelo01 LON WARNEKE 1951 SP 359.7 Runners-up 1951 radboch01 jossad01 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 dickebi01 BILL DICKEY 1952 C 412.5 lyonste01 TED LYONS 1952 SP 356.1 radboch01 CHARLES RADBOURN 1952 SP 344.7 jossad01 ADDIE JOSS 1952 SP 344.2 Runners-up 1952 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 heilmha01 bartedi01 ottme01 MEL OTT 1953 RF 481.3 hermabi01 BILLY HERMAN 1953 SB 397.0 greenha01 HANK GREENBERG 1953 FB 389.2 deandi01 DIZZY DEAN 1953 SP 378.7 Runners-up 1953 passecl01 ruffire01 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 vaughar01 ARKY VAUGHAN 1954 SS 489.2 medwijo01 JOE MEDWICK 1954 LF 414.6 passecl01 CLAUDE PASSEAU 1954 SP 371.7 ruffire01 RED RUFFING 1954 SP 346.4 Runners-up 1954 vaughhi01 longhe01 mcginjo01 heilmha01 bartedi01 vaughhi01 HIPPO VAUGHN 1955 SP 343.6 longhe01 HERMAN LONG 1955 SS 343.3 mcginjo01 JOE MCGINNITY 1955 SP 342.1 heilmha01 HARRY HEILMANN 1955 RF 341.4 Runners-up 1955 bartedi01 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 gordojo01 JOE GORDON 1956 SB 422.4 applilu01 LUKE APPLING 1956 SS 413.1 waltebu01 BUCKY WALTERS 1956 SP 398.9 Runners-up 1956 bartedi01 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 dimagjo01 JOE DIMAGGIO 1957 CF 465.8 doerrbo01 BOBBY DOERR 1957 SB 401.4 bartedi01 DICK BARTELL 1957 SS 341.0 Runners-up 1957 carutbo01 fletcar01 sislege01 hackst01 nichoki01 boudrlo01 LOU BOUDREAU 1958 SS 469.3 carutbo01 BOB CARUTHERS 1958 SP 339.1 fletcar01 ART FLETCHER 1958 SS 337.5 Runners-up 1958 sislege01 hackst01 nichoki01 camildo01 wardmo01 mizejo01 JOHNNY MIZE 1959 FB 427.5 leonadu02 DUTCH LEONARD 1959 SP 357.3 sislege01 GEORGE SISLER 1959 FB 337.3 Runners-up 1959 hackst01 nichoki01 camildo01 wardmo01 griffcl01 hackst01 STAN HACK 1960 TB 336.7 nichoki01 KID NICHOLS 1960 SP 335.7 camildo01 DOLPH CAMILLI 1960 FB 333.2 Runners-up 1960 wardmo01 griffcl01 johnsbo01 luquedo01 tanneje01 newhoha01 HAL NEWHOUSER 1961 SP 470.3 kinerra01 RALPH KINER 1961 LF 356.6 stephve01 VERN STEPHENS 1961 SS 331.9 Runners-up 1961 johnsbo01 galanau01 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 fellebo01 BOB FELLER 1962 SP 502.6 robinja02 JACKIE ROBINSON 1962 SB 433.3 johnsbo01 BOB JOHNSON 1962 LF 326.5 Runners-up 1962 galanau01 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 troutdi01 DIZZY TROUT 1963 SP 368.8 camparo01 ROY CAMPANELLA 1963 C 353.3 galanau01 AUGIE GALAN 1963 LF 322.9 Runners-up 1963 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 lemonbo01 BOB LEMON 1964 SP 344.9 Runners-up 1964 reesepe01 gomezle01 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 reesepe01 PEE_WEE REESE 1965 SS 337.2 slaugen01 ENOS SLAUGHTER 1965 RF 316.9 Runners-up 1965 freylo01 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 willite01 TED WILLIAMS 1966 LF 578.2 freylo01 LONNY FREY 1966 SB 311.6 Runners-up 1966 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 garvene01 NED GARVER 1967 SP 319.4 Runners-up 1967 stanked01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 ashburi01 RICHIE ASHBURN 1968 CF 436.4 stanked01 EDDIE STANKY 1968 SB 311.4 Runners-up 1968 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 nichobi01 rosenal01 musiast01 STAN MUSIAL 1969 LF 556.5 wynnea01 EARLY WYNN 1969 SP 345.8 Runners-up 1969 hodgegi01 schoere01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 piercbi02 BILLY PIERCE 1970 SP 339.5 hodgegi01 GIL HODGES 1970 FB 330.2 Runners-up 1970 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 peskyjo01 spahnwa01 WARREN SPAHN 1971 SP 524.7 berrayo01 YOGI BERRA 1971 C 367.3 Runners-up 1971 foxne01 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 roberro01 ROBIN ROBERTS 1972 SP 472.4 koufasa01 SANDY KOUFAX 1972 SP 463.7 Runners-up 1972 frienbo01 foxne01 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 frienbo01 BOB FRIEND 1973 SP 347.1 foxne01 NELLIE FOX 1973 SB 338.2 Runners-up 1973 fordwh01 schoere01 snidedu01 elliobo01 brechha01 matheed01 EDDIE MATHEWS 1974 TB 483.5 mantlmi01 MICKEY MANTLE 1974 CF 468.3 Runners-up 1974 fordwh01 schoere01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 drysddo01 DON DRYSDALE 1975 SP 435.5 boyerke01 KEN BOYER 1975 TB 361.5 Runners-up 1975 fordwh01 schoere01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 fordwh01 WHITEY FORD 1976 SP 328.2 schoere01 RED SCHOENDIENST 1976 SB 325.3 Runners-up 1976 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 rosenal01 antonjo02 bankser01 ERNIE BANKS 1977 SS 448.3 bunniji01 JIM BUNNING 1977 SP 420.0 Runners-up 1977 pascuca02 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 rosenal01 clemero01 ROBERTO CLEMENTE 1978 RF 370.3 pascuca02 CAMILO PASCUAL 1978 SP 341.1 Runners-up 1978 mazerbi01 willsma01 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 mayswi01 WILLIE MAYS 1979 CF 646.3 mazerbi01 BILL MAZEROSKI 1979 SB 323.5 willsma01 MAURY WILLS 1979 SS 319.1 Runners-up 1979 colavro01 snidedu01 jacksla01 antonjo02 wilheho01 santoro01 RON SANTO 1980 TB 481.6 kalinal01 AL KALINE 1980 RF 397.5 Runners-up 1980 cepedor01 colavro01 cashno01 snidedu01 jacksla01 gibsobo01 BOB GIBSON 1981 SP 532.6 maricju01 JUAN MARICHAL 1981 SP 450.7 Runners-up 1981 cepedor01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 snidedu01 aaronha01 HANK AARON 1982 RF 526.9 robinfr02 FRANK ROBINSON 1982 RF 501.1 Runners-up 1982 cepedor01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 snidedu01 allendi01 DICK ALLEN 1983 TB 407.0 wynnji01 JIM WYNN 1983 CF 380.9 Runners-up 1983 robinbr01 cepedor01 torrejo01 osteecl01 colavro01 woodwi01 WILBUR WOOD 1984 SP 378.1 robinbr01 BROOKS ROBINSON 1984 TB 347.9 Runners-up 1984 cepedor01 torrejo01 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 cepedor01 ORLANDO CEPEDA 1985 FB 346.5 torrejo01 JOE TORRE 1985 C 330.9 hunteca01 CATFISH HUNTER 1985 SP 322.5 Runners-up 1985 osteecl01 colavro01 cashno01 fregoji01 snidedu01 mccovwi01 WILLIE MCCOVEY 1986 FB 413.2 osteecl01 CLAUDE OSTEEN 1986 SP 317.3 Runners-up 1986 colavro01 cashno01 fregoji01 jacksla01 stottme01 bondsbo01 BOBBY BONDS 1987 RF 339.4 colavro01 ROCKY COLAVITO 1987 RF 315.7 Runners-up 1987 cashno01 fregoji01 jacksla01 stottme01 lolicmi01 tiantlu01 LUIS TIANT 1988 SP 368.0 smithre06 REGGIE SMITH 1988 RF 322.4 Runners-up 1988 belanma01 stargwi01 cashno01 fregoji01 jacksla01 benchjo01 JOHNNY BENCH 1989 C 468.5 perryga01 GAYLORD PERRY 1989 SP 458.5 Runners-up 1989 jenkife01 yastrca01 campabe01 matlajo01 belanma01 morgajo02 JOE MORGAN 1990 SB 538.3 jenkife01 FERGIE JENKINS 1990 SP 423.8 Runners-up 1990 yastrca01 palmeji01 campabe01 matlajo01 belanma01 yastrca01 CARL YASTRZEMSKI 1991 LF 420.1 palmeji01 JIM PALMER 1991 SP 416.2 carewro01 ROD CAREW 1991 SB 388.0 Runners-up 1991 campabe01 koosmje01 matlajo01 belanma01 stargwi01 seaveto01 TOM SEAVER 1992 SP 530.9 grichbo01 BOBBY GRICH 1992 SB 471.3 Runners-up 1992 rosepe01 campabe01 fostege01 bluevi01 koosmje01 niekrph01 PHIL NIEKRO 1993 SP 420.1 rosepe01 PETE ROSE 1993 LF 399.3 Runners-up 1993 campabe01 fostege01 bluevi01 jacksre01 ceyro01 carltst01 STEVE CARLTON 1994 SP 517.4 campabe01 BERT CAMPANERIS 1994 SS 370.9 Runners-up 1994 fostege01 bluevi01 conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 schmimi01 MIKE SCHMIDT 1995 TB 550.8 fostege01 GEORGE FOSTER 1995 LF 367.3 evansda01 DARRELL EVANS 1995 TB 364.6 Runners-up 1995 bluevi01 conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 hernake01 KEITH HERNANDEZ 1996 FB 410.6 bluevi01 VIDA BLUE 1996 SP 361.1 Runners-up 1996 conceda01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 ceyro01 reuscri01 RICK REUSCHEL 1997 SP 363.6 conceda01 DAVE CONCEPCION 1997 SS 360.8 Runners-up 1997 evansdw01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 templga01 cartega01 GARY CARTER 1998 C 442.7 blylebe01 BERT BLYLEVEN 1998 SP 436.9 evansdw01 DWIGHT EVANS 1998 RF 358.6 Runners-up 1998 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 templga01 guerrpe01 yountro01 ROBIN YOUNT 1999 SS 427.0 brettge01 GEORGE BRETT 1999 TB 425.4 Runners-up 1999 ryanno01 tananfr01 suttodo01 guidrro01 jacksre01 ryanno01 NOLAN RYAN 2000 SP 424.2 tananfr01 FRANK TANANA 2000 SP 375.7 suttodo01 DON SUTTON 2000 SP 350.8 Runners-up 2000 guidrro01 jacksre01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 guidrro01 RON GUIDRY 2001 SP 347.9 jacksre01 REGGIE JACKSON 2001 RF 345.9 Runners-up 2001 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 randowi01 smithoz01 OZZIE SMITH 2002 SS 469.7 trammal01 ALAN TRAMMELL 2002 SS 443.3 dawsoan01 ANDRE DAWSON 2002 CF 396.3 Runners-up 2002 violafr01 dykstle01 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 sandbry01 RYNE SANDBERG 2003 SB 455.9 violafr01 FRANK VIOLA 2003 SP 385.7 Runners-up 2003 dykstle01 murraed02 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 dykstle01 LENNY DYKSTRA 2004 CF 382.0 eckerde01 DENNIS ECKERSLEY 2004 SP 379.5 molitpa01 PAUL MOLITOR 2004 TB 369.5 Runners-up 2004 murraed02 whitalo01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 boggswa01 WADE BOGGS 2005 TB 438.5 murraed02 EDDIE MURRAY 2005 FB 355.0 Runners-up 2005 whitalo01 langsma01 gossari01 templga01 guerrpe01 hershor01 OREL HERSHISER 2006 SP 420.8 clarkwi02 WILL CLARK 2006 FB 411.1 goodedw01 DWIGHT GOODEN 2006 SP 406.7 Runners-up 2006 belleal01 whitalo01 langsma01 gossari01 templga01 ripkeca01 CAL RIPKEN 2007 SS 562.1 mcgwima01 MARK MCGWIRE 2007 FB 428.2 Runners-up 2007 gwynnto01 saberbr01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 gwynnto01 TONY GWYNN 2008 RF 426.1 saberbr01 BRET SABERHAGEN 2008 SP 419.6 raineti01 TIM RAINES 2008 LF 407.7 Runners-up 2008 finlech01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 langsma01 henderi01 RICKEY HENDERSON 2009 LF 545.4 bellja01 JAY BELL 2009 SS 398.0 Runners-up 2009 coneda01 finlech01 belleal01 fernato01 whitalo01 larkiba01 BARRY LARKIN 2010 SS 442.5 alomaro01 ROBERTO ALOMAR 2010 SB 420.2 martied01 EDGAR MARTINEZ 2010 OT 404.2 Runners-up 2010 coneda01 finlech01 appieke01 belleal01 fernato01 brownke01 KEVIN BROWN 2011 SP 446.0 bagweje01 JEFF BAGWELL 2011 FB 439.0 Runners-up 2011 coneda01 finlech01 olerujo01 appieke01 belleal01 coneda01 DAVID CONE 2012 SP 380.8 finlech01 CHUCK FINLEY 2012 SP 373.9 olerujo01 JOHN OLERUD 2012 FB 373.6 Runners-up 2012 appieke01 belleal01 fernato01 palmera01 whitalo01 bondsba01 BARRY BONDS 2013 LF 720.8 clemero02 ROGER CLEMENS 2013 SP 628.2 Runners-up 2013 sosasa01 biggicr01 piazzmi01 schilcu01 appieke01 maddugr01 GREG MADDUX 2014 SP 577.1 thomafr04 FRANK THOMAS 2014 FB 444.8 kentje01 JEFF KENT 2014 SB 443.6 Runners-up 2014 sosasa01 biggicr01 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 johnsra05 RANDY JOHNSON 2015 SP 519.7 martipe02 PEDRO MARTINEZ 2015 SP 507.1 Runners-up 2015 sosasa01 biggicr01 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 griffke02 KEN GRIFFEY 2016 CF 458.4 sosasa01 SAMMY SOSA 2016 RF 443.2 biggicr01 CRAIG BIGGIO 2016 SB 425.8 Runners-up 2016 mussimi01 glavito02 piazzmi01 smoltjo01 schilcu01 mussimi01 MIKE MUSSINA 2017 SP 425.7 glavito02 TOM GLAVINE 2017 SP 415.3 Runners-up 2017 piazzmi01 smoltjo01 schilcu01 edmonji01 garcino01 rolensc01 SCOTT ROLEN 2018 TB 434.1 santajo01 JOHAN SANTANA 2018 SP 425.7 piazzmi01 MIKE PIAZZA 2018 C 414.3 Runners-up 2018 jonesch06 smoltjo01 schilcu01 edmonji01 garcino01 rodrial01 ALEX RODRIGUEZ 2019 SS 510.1 riverma01 MARIANO RIVERA 2019 RP 471.1 Runners-up 2019 hallaro01 heltoto01 jonesch06 smoltjo01 schilcu01
Still very much a work in progress…but as a present to everyone, story my first cut on 2015 projections are out.
Wrestling with unbelievable parity in the American League.
