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In 2015, Jung-ho Kang became the first hitter to jump directly from the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) to the major leagues. This year, two more hitters – Byung-ho Park, for Minnesota, and Hyun-Soo Kim for Baltimore – will attempt to make the same trip.
Here’s a a draft that I worked on last January but never completed
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Pittsburgh’s recent signing of Jeong-Ho Kang – or Jung, or Jeung, transliterations vary – got me into taking a hard look at the KBO in order to make a set of translations.
Kang’s real statistics have been very impressive, especially in two of the last three years.
Jeong-ho Kang Born 19870405 Age 28 Bats R Throws R Height 72 Weight 180 No DT, Real
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP Defense
2006 Hyundai_Unic KBO 20 3 1 0 0 0 8 1 1 0 1 19 .150 .150 .200 .063 0 -4 7 -37 -14 -11 5-DH 0
2007 Hyundai_Unic KBO 15 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 13 .133 .133 .133 .000 0 -11 -6 -30 -15 -25 4-DH 0
2008 Woori_Heroes KBO 362 98 18 1 8 31 65 36 47 3 1 275 .271 .334 .392 .264 49 5 -3 -2 -3 2 96-DH 0
2009 Woori_Heroes KBO 476 136 33 2 23 45 81 73 81 3 2 355 .286 .349 .508 .276 71 14 -2 3 -3 -3 127-DH 0
2010 Nexen_Heroes KBO 449 135 30 2 12 61 87 60 58 2 2 321 .301 .392 .457 .287 71 6 -3 1 3 11 123-DH 0
2011 Nexen_Heroes KBO 444 125 22 2 9 43 62 53 63 4 6 333 .282 .353 .401 .265 60 1 -3 9 -2 0 119-DH 0
2012 Nexen_Heroes KBO 436 137 32 0 25 71 78 77 82 21 5 310 .314 .413 .560 .336 101 22 2 3 7 8 122-DH 0
2013 Nexen_Heroes KBO 450 131 21 1 22 68 109 67 96 15 8 335 .291 .387 .489 .293 78 18 0 -6 5 6 125-DH 0
2014 Nexen_Heroes KBO 415 147 36 2 39 67 106 102 115 3 3 273 .354 .458 .733 .345 96 51 -3 -9 6 19 117-DH 0
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Minors 561 167 35 2 25 71 110 86 99 9 5 2234 .298 .382 .502 .294 96 17 -2 0 2 6
The .345 EqA in 2014 was good enough to lead the league; the .336 in 2012 earned him a second-best mark. He’s certainly in the mix in trying to figure out who the best hitter in Korea has been over the last three seasons – I would narrow it down to these four:
EQA EQR Tae-Kyun Kim .333 250 (1st Eqa 2012, 4th 2013 and 2014) Byung-ho Park .331 309 (4th in Eqa in 2012, 1st 2013, 2nd 2014) Jeong-ho Kang .324 275 (2nd in EqA 2012, 11th 2013, 1st 2014) Sok-min Park .322 245 (5th in 2012, 3rd 2013)
Kang is the second-youngest of them (Byung-ho Park is 9 months younger), and, rather crucially, is a shortstop. (You can ignore the DH numbers on his stat lines; that’s just a default when no fielding data is available).
Kang’s power explosion in 2014 is not all him. The Korean league’s offensive levels have gyrated around quite a bit over the last five years, spanning a range over 1.5 runs per game:
BA OBP SLG OPS R/G 2010 0.269 0.353 0.404 0.757 5.07 2011 0.265 0.347 0.384 0.730 4.54 2012 0.258 0.337 0.364 0.701 4.12 2013 0.268 0.353 0.388 0.740 4.64 2014 0.289 0.368 0.442 0.810 5.64
The National League, by way of comaprison, has ranged from 4.45 RPG in 2010 down to 3.95 last year. The 1930 NL – when Bill Terry hit .401, and Hack WIlson had 191 RBI – that league had a very comparable 5.68 RPG, the only NL season since 1900 over 5.5. It is a crazy high hitting environment. So you know, right away, before I even start to talk about the difficulty level of the Korean league, that those numbers are going to have to come down.
Part of the reason for that is expansion. The KBO started in 1982 with six teams, gained a seventh team in 1986 and an eighth in 1990. A ninth team was added in 2013, and a tenth will join in 2015. As generally happens when league expands, there was an immediate quality drop – the year-to-year comparisons, which had generally been improving by abou 1.5% per year, instead dropped 1.2% in 2013. League officials tried to compensate in 2014 by increasing the number of allowed foreign players from two per team to three. As a direct result of that, there were 10 players with US playing experience who made their debut in Korea in 2014, and they put up the following stat lines:
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP Defense Josh_Bell 27 2014 Twn KBO 240 64 8 1 10 30 56 33 39 3 0 180 .267 .345 .433 .258 30 10 -4 -8 2 -7 65-DH 0 Jorge_Cantu 32 2014 Bea KBO 373 116 25 1 18 34 83 56 72 1 0 259 .311 .378 .528 .282 55 19 -5 -6 -2 8 98-DH 0 Luis_Jimenez 32 2014 Gia KBO 260 82 15 0 14 41 57 42 61 0 2 181 .315 .408 .535 .299 44 22 -7 -4 6 8 72-DH 0 Yamaico_Navarro 26 2014 Lio KBO 497 154 27 1 31 96 70 118 98 25 9 357 .310 .419 .555 .302 89 19 5 11 10 -7 141-DH 0 Felix_Pie 29 2014 Eag KBO 445 145 33 2 17 41 60 61 92 9 11 323 .326 .373 .524 .276 65 8 -1 10 -2 4 117-DH 0 Brett_Pill 29 2014 Tig KBO 354 110 26 0 18 21 64 60 65 10 1 247 .311 .353 .537 .275 49 16 3 0 -7 1 89-DH 0 Vinny_Rottino 34 2014 Her KBO 215 65 18 0 1 29 22 29 21 2 0 151 .302 .386 .400 .255 25 -9 -2 17 3 0 58-DH 0 Luke_Scott 36 2014 Wyv KBO 105 28 7 0 6 20 18 17 17 0 0 79 .267 .392 .505 .284 17 21 -6 6 10 -18 31-DH 0 Brad_Snyder 32 2014 Twn KBO 97 21 7 0 4 7 31 17 17 0 2 79 .216 .287 .412 .219 9 20 4 -26 -5 -17 25-DH 0 Eric_Thames 27 2014 Dno KBO 440 151 29 6 37 57 99 95 121 11 2 297 .343 .422 .689 .329 92 37 1 -6 3 12 120-DH 0
Remember, in an unadjusted EQA the league average is always going to be .260, by definition. So everybody (with the exception of Brad Snyder, who wasn’t in Korea to start the season; he only went overseas after the Rangers released him in June) was at least in the neighborhood of average. Eric Thames was the only player who really filled a starring role, though, finishing second in the league in EQA and 3rd in EQR.
We can take a similar approach on other players who have played in Korea and the US prior to 2014. These are all players who went to korea after having played the prior three years in the US major or minor leagues – not Japan, not Mexico, no missing years. That nets us Cory Aldridge (Korea 2011), Mike Cervenak (2006), Hee Choi (2007-2009, compared with US 2004-06), Doug Clark (2008-10), Jacob Cruz (2007-08), Victor Diaz (2009), John Gall (2006), Ryan Garko (2011), Bryan Myrow (2006), Calvin Pickering (2006), Scott Seabol (2006), and Wilson Valdez (2008).
I’m going to use the player’s previous three years of translated data in the US as their “established value”. Here’s how that looks in a plot:
It is a moderately good fit, although it is distorted by five really low outliers at the bottom center of the picture. Those five belong to
Ryan Garko – while his three-year established value was .244, that consisted of a .269 three years pre-Korea, .265 two years prior, and .190 the year before. His performance in Korea was entirely consistent with someone whose real value is around .200.
Brad Snyder – who washed out of the US in June and came to Korea in mid-season.
Scott Seabol – who washed out of the US in June and came to Korea in mid-season.
John Gall – who washed out of the US in July and came to Korea in mid-season.
Mike Cervenak – who washed out of Korea and came back to the US in June.
Removing those players from the equation leaves us with this better looking graph:
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That’s where I left off. Nothing above really needs to change. We can update the chart with league hitting stats:
Year BA OBP SLG OPS R/G 2010 0.269 0.353 0.404 0.757 5.07 2011 0.265 0.347 0.384 0.730 4.54 2012 0.258 0.337 0.364 0.701 4.12 2013 0.268 0.353 0.388 0.740 4.64 2014 0.289 0.368 0.442 0.810 5.64 2015 0.280 0.360 0.431 0.791 5.22 And see that offense remains high in Korea. However, the allowance of more foreign players was very successful in raising the quality of the league - as I measure it, league strength was up almost 5% from 2013-14 and held steady in 2015 despite further expansion. As I noted above, Byung-ho Park, the new Twin, was one of two players I rated as a better hitter than Kang last year, and he continued to do well in 2015:
Byung-ho Park Born 19860710 Age 28 Bats R Throws R Height 73 Weight 235 No DT, Real
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP
2006 LG_Twins____ KBO 130 21 2 0 5 9 42 7 13 1 3 113 .162 .227 .292 .185 8 14 -2 -21 -4 -25
2009 LG_Twins____ KBO 188 41 7 0 9 20 70 28 25 2 1 149 .218 .304 .399 .227 18 19 -2 -32 -2 -5
2010 LG_Twins____ KBO 160 30 4 0 7 26 55 25 22 5 1 135 .188 .305 .344 .228 17 15 1 -23 6 -21
2011 Nexen/LG KBO 201 51 11 2 13 26 76 31 31 2 0 151 .254 .345 .522 .292 35 38 -2 -28 2 7
2012 Nexen_Heroes KBO 469 136 34 0 31 73 111 76 105 20 9 349 .290 .392 .561 .325 105 30 2 -5 6 5
2013 Nexen_Heroes KBO 450 143 17 0 37 92 96 91 117 10 2 315 .318 .437 .602 .337 104 34 -2 1 11 4
2014 Nexen_Heroes KBO 455 139 16 2 52 96 140 126 124 8 3 323 .305 .436 .692 .328 99 61 0 -17 12 -1
2015 Nexen_Heroes KBO 528 181 35 1 53 78 161 129 146 10 3 354 .343 .436 .714 .336 116 52 0 -15 5 21
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Minors 546 156 27 1 43 88 162 107 121 12 4 2040 .285 .391 .577 .308 105 39 0 -15 6 4
Two straight years with over 50 HR, albeit with a LOT of strikouts. Remember, this is untranslated, real stats.
The Orioles' guy, Kim, is a very different hitter:
Hyun-soo Kim Born 19880112 Age 27 Bats L Throws R Height 74 Weight 220 No DT, Real
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP
2006 Doosan_Bears KBO 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0 -1
2007 Doosan_Bears KBO 319 87 19 3 5 26 46 33 32 5 2 237 .273 .335 .398 .263 42 1 -2 3 -3 2
2008 Doosan_Bears KBO 470 168 34 5 9 80 50 83 89 13 8 312 .357 .454 .509 .332 99 3 -1 14 8 20
2009 Doosan_Bears KBO 482 172 31 6 23 80 59 97 104 6 6 322 .357 .447 .589 .322 95 11 -2 13 6 16
2010 Doosan_Bears KBO 473 150 29 0 24 78 64 88 89 4 8 339 .317 .414 .531 .306 88 16 -3 11 7 4
2011 Doosan_Bears KBO 475 143 25 2 13 71 63 71 91 5 3 344 .301 .392 .444 .291 79 6 -3 11 5 4
2012 Doosan_Bears KBO 437 127 17 1 7 46 50 47 65 6 3 318 .291 .358 .382 .271 61 1 -3 11 0 3
2013 Doosan_Bears KBO 434 131 23 1 16 62 71 63 90 2 4 319 .302 .382 .470 .286 70 12 -4 6 4 3
2014 Doosan_Bears KBO 459 147 26 0 17 53 45 75 88 2 0 317 .320 .396 .488 .280 66 8 -4 18 1 -2
2015 Doosan_Bears KBO 512 167 26 0 28 101 63 103 121 11 5 359 .326 .438 .541 .312 98 13 -2 18 11 0
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Minors 554 176 31 2 19 81 68 90 105 7 5 2868 .318 .406 .488 .298 95 8 -3 12 5 6
Kim is a high-contact hitter, not a power guy.
Based on their last three years in Korea, then:
1) Kang hit for a .323 eqa, and would be expected to hit about .283 in the US from the slope above
2) Park hit .333 in 2013-15, which slopes to .293;
3) Kim hit .294, which goes to .257
When making a full set of translations, I look at players who have played in both the questioned league and leagues
I already know about. By far and away the largest set of year to year matches for Korea are players who went from US
AAA leagues to Korea. On the aggregate, the translation works very well:
AB H DB TP HR BB SO SB CS BA OBA SLG EQA EQR
Yr1 (3A) 6216. 1443. 319. 27. 202. 658. 1248. 91. 30. .232 .306 .390 .247 726.
Yr2 (KR) 6235. 1483. 323. 30. 209. 639. 1204. 89. 41. .238 .309 .400 .251 746.
The translations end up looking like this:
Jeong-ho Kang Born 19870405 Age 28 Bats R Throws R Height 72 Weight 180 Regular DT
Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP
2012 Nexen_Heroes KBO 449 126 28 1 24 55 74 73 73 17 4 332 .281 .361 .508 .294 78 17 3 4 4 -3
2013 Nexen_Heroes KBO 469 114 21 1 18 63 99 60 75 11 7 369 .243 .333 .407 .259 63 9 -1 -3 5 -8
2014 Nexen_Heroes KBO 430 121 33 2 24 48 99 74 74 2 3 314 .281 .361 .535 .297 75 26 -3 -7 2 5
2015 Pittsburgh__ NL 417 128 25 2 16 31 79 69 66 5 5 295 .307 .378 .492 .294 69 10 -1 0 -3 14
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Majors 417 128 25 2 16 31 79 69 66 5 5 295 .307 .378 .492 .294 69 10 -1 0 -3 14
Minors 568 152 35 2 28 70 115 87 94 13 6 1015 .268 .351 .481 .283 91 17 0 -2 4 -2
Total 571 158 35 2 27 64 114 89 93 11 6 1310 .277 .357 .484 .286 92 15 0 -2 2 1
Expected .283, got .294. His BABIP (which is notoriously flaky) was rather high in Pittsburgh, and made up for somewhat disappointing power performance.
Byung-ho Park Born 19860710 Age 28 Bats R Throws R Height 73 Weight 235 Regular DT Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP 2013 Nexen_Heroes KBO 467 125 15 1 29 54 88 73 89 8 2 350 .268 .345 .490 .284 75 20 -2 0 3 -7 2014 Nexen_Heroes KBO 471 114 16 2 32 53 130 86 78 6 3 364 .242 .325 .488 .274 72 29 0 -15 2 -10 2015 Nexen_Heroes KBO 544 151 32 2 33 58 138 96 99 8 3 400 .278 .351 .526 .293 93 26 0 -11 1 5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minors 574 151 24 2 36 64 138 99 103 9 3 1114 .263 .341 .503 .284 93 25 0 -9 2 -4
Comparables: Mauro_Gomez Rudy_York Bucky_Jacobsen Richie_Sexson Hyun-soo Kim Born 19880112 Age 27 Bats L Throws R Height 74 Weight 220 Regular DT Year Team Lge AB H DB TP HR BB SO R RBI SB CS Out BA OBP SLG EqA EqR POW SPD KRt WRt BIP 2013 Doosan_Bears KBO 449 112 23 1 14 55 64 58 72 1 3 352 .249 .325 .399 .253 57 6 -5 8 4 -10 2014 Doosan_Bears KBO 472 120 17 1 13 50 42 58 63 2 0 357 .254 .328 .377 .249 55 1 -5 17 1 -12 2015 Doosan_Bears KBO 528 140 21 1 19 70 54 77 89 9 5 403 .265 .350 .417 .268 75 4 -2 15 5 -10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Minors 567 146 24 1 18 69 63 76 88 5 3 1112 .257 .335 .398 .258 73 4 -4 13 3 -11
Comps: Pete_O’Brien, Frederick_Hopke, Clay_Dalrymple, Jim_Delsing
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