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These come from my million-run Postseason Odds page, which will update daily through the season. Average wins by position in AL East: 100.4 91.4 84.8 77.4 58.1 AL East Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees .593 97.5 64.5 63.58508 23.74102 87.32610 Blue Jays .529 86.1 75.9 13.51403 31.84269 45.35672 Rays .525 85.9 76.1 13.07292 31.31225 44.38516 Red Sox .518 84.2 77.8 9.81512 27.01932 36.83444 Orioles .370 58.4 103.6 .01285 .10404 .11689 The Yankees are an overwhelming favorite to win the division. The Orioles have the lowest playoff odds of any team in the majors. At least one of the remaining teams should take a wild card, and there's a pretty good chance that both wild cards come from the East. Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.7 86.5 79.7 72.6 63.6 AL Central Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox .528 88.7 73.3 43.41552 16.64380 60.05932 Twins .527 88.1 73.9 40.12318 17.02435 57.14754 Clevelands .478 79.6 82.4 11.56375 9.88443 21.44818 Royals .444 73.7 88.3 3.96877 3.91370 7.88246 Tigers .406 67.1 94.9 .92878 .95012 1.87890 The Twins and White Sox are rated pretty close to even, with me giving the barest edge to the White Sox. The ex-Sockalexises have a chance, if their pitching can carry them through. The Royals have their best chance in several years, and some prospects whispering hopes of even better times ahead. I expect the Tigers to challenge the Orioles for the barrel bottom. Average wins by position in AL west: 96.7 85.3 78.9 73.1 65.7 AL West Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros .576 95.2 66.8 77.30096 7.74413 85.04509 Athletics .489 80.0 82.0 10.00943 12.37409 22.38351 Angels .477 77.4 84.6 6.30802 8.42805 14.73607 Mariners .461 75.2 86.8 4.22883 5.91044 10.13927 Rangers .441 71.9 90.1 2.15278 3.10758 5.26035 The Astros get rated as the single most likely division champion, thanks to their own strengths and contenders' weaknesses. Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.8 Average wins by position in NL East: 95.8 88.5 82.5 76.0 65.3 NL East Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets .557 88.7 73.3 36.46963 17.94029 54.40992 Braves .554 88.3 73.7 34.61201 17.93041 52.54242 Nationals .528 83.9 78.1 18.43439 14.48495 32.91933 Phillies .507 80.1 81.9 9.84990 9.46676 19.31666 Marlins .435 67.1 94.9 .63407 .78651 1.42058 A highly contentious division, with almost everyone having a chance. Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.3 86.1 80.3 73.7 61.2 NL Central Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers .529 86.1 75.9 36.00577 10.24474 46.25051 Cardinals .520 84.6 77.4 29.57912 10.05231 39.63143 Reds .507 82.3 79.7 21.18838 8.59095 29.77934 Cubs .491 79.2 82.8 12.87463 6.10106 18.97569 Pirates .394 62.4 99.6 .35211 .16244 .51455 An even more contentious division, although the teams are all 1-5 games behind the East group. It is the weakest division. Average wins by position in NL West: 107.2 96.4 81.5 72.4 60.9 NL West Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers .646 104.0 58.0 63.67985 32.50205 96.18190 Padres .620 99.1 62.9 35.21897 54.38710 89.60607 Dbacks .498 77.9 84.1 .75033 11.05648 11.80681 Giants .480 74.8 87.2 .34225 6.02418 6.36643 Rockies .412 62.8 99.2 .00860 .26977 .27837 What seems very likely is that the Dodgers and Padres - with the two best projected records in the majors - will both advance to the playoffs, leaving the rest of the NL to fight over the remaining WC spot. Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 97.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.0
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