claydavenport.com
First things first – I now have the way too soon, already out of date, Team Projections for 2021 up and available.
Of course, posting them on the day of the non-tender deadline means most teams have at least one player in my projection that is already compromised. And of course, teams have yet to fill the gaping holes (like the Nationals 1B slot) that you know will be taken by some current free agent. Still, its nice to have a snapshot of where the team stood when they started making decisions about 2021.
generated on 12- 2-2020, projections for 2021 season
| AL East Won Lost Runs RunsA NYY 92 70 845 737 TBY 86 76 769 726 BOS 83 79 837 816 TOR 78 84 779 803 BAL 70 92 707 808 AL Cent Won Lost Runs RunsA MIN 87 75 809 747 CLE 84 78 764 749 CWS 82 80 788 772 KCR 72 90 714 799 DET 69 93 673 785 AL West Won Lost Runs RunsA HOU 89 73 818 742 LAA 83 79 812 792 OAK 81 81 743 743 TEX 77 85 755 783 SEA 71 91 703 791 | NL East Won Lost Runs RunsA ATL 91 71 815 719 NYM 86 76 752 707 WAS 83 79 735 723 PHI 80 82 738 750 MIA 74 88 673 739 NL Cent Won Lost Runs RunsA MIL 86 76 750 706 CHC 83 79 756 738 CIN 82 80 755 748 STL 77 85 707 744 PIT 73 89 700 777 NL West Won Lost Runs RunsA LAD 96 66 843 704 SDP 89 73 779 707 ARI 81 81 768 768 COL 77 85 783 819 SFG 67 95 665 792 |
One thing I am pretty certain about – not just for me, but everybody else doing projections, from BP to FanGraphs to ESPN, Rotowire, Rotoworld, and every other fantasy site – projections are going to be worse in 2021 than in prior years. Having a 2020 season that was only 60 games – and even then, only for the majors – every player is coming off of what we would, previously, have labelled a missed or truncated season. Our sample sizes are smaller than ever.
To balance that, I tried something I never did before. The “2020” season that is going through the program, combining with 2019 and 2018 stats to make a 2021 projections, is a blend of whatever the player really did in 2020 with the projection I made going in to 2020. For every minor leaguer, who had no 2020 season at all (or at least nothing with public statistics!), there is nothing to blend – the 2020 projection is their entire line.
I can’t say I’m enthused with the results, but testing says it was a lot better than going with zero seasons or taking 2020 results at full face value.
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
