Matchup eqas, based on both the hitters and pitchers splits:
Wainwright Lynn Kelly Miller
Martin 248 256 277 243
Morneau 264 321 286 310
Walker 270 328 291 316
Mercer 220 227 246 216
Alvarez 270 328 291 316
Marte 244 252 273 240
McCutcheon 287 297 322 283
Byrd 263 272 294 259
Net .2377 .2646 .2644 .2537 (includes a .100 pitcher)
Burnett Cole Liriano Morton
Carpenter 361 312 167 413
Beltran 344 297 267 394
Holliday 268 303 311 256
Adams 342 295 130 391
Molina 246 278 323 235
Jay 310 268 134 355
Freese 218 247 303 208
Descalso 277 239 111 317
Net 2886 2599 2314 2966
Game 1: The Cardinals, behind Wainwright, are a huge favorite over Burnett and the Pirates in game 1. He’s got a huge lefty split, and the Cards will throw 5 against him (counting Beltran). A .2886-.2377 eqa margin equates to a 72.5% win percentage for the Cards.
Game 2: Lynn vs Cole: This time it is the Cardinal pitcher who has a big platoon split, but the Pirates can only send 3 lefties up to the plate (unless they choose to send Jones up over Marte). It makes for what should be the evenest matchup of the series; the Pirates have a .2646-.2599 eqa advantage, which comes out to a 52.2% chance for the Pirates to win game 2.
Game 3: All those lefties spell trouble for the Cards in game 3, as they have to face Francisco Liriano and his extraordinary lefty-killing splits. Meanwhile, Kelly offers the Cardinals nothing special. Its a .2644-.2314, Pirates, and that makes a 66.1% win chance for the Pirates.
Game 4: But all those Cardinal lefties come back in game 4, because Morton has even worse splits than Burnett. The Cardinals against Charlie stack up as a .2966 eqa, against the .2537 the Pirates manage against Shelby Miller. If it is Miller – Wacha’s numbers would come through as better than Miller’s, so the odds would only go up from the 68.6% in the Cardinal favor.
Game 5 figures to repeat game 1. <Edit: Ah, the Pirates swict to Cole for game 5. That makes it a much tighter .2599-.2377 Cardinal advantage, 61% instead of 73%…without taking into account the rest advantage for the Cardinals.>
Stick those percentages in with a random number generator, and the Cardinals are projected to win the series 67.6958% of the time.
And, with game 1 in the books and a 9-1 win, the Cardinals are up 78% to win the series.