Rays 52%

Same setup as with the Reds/Pirates yesterday.

Danny Salazar goes 225 v left, 253 v right, and is RH.

Molina (R) 214 v RH, Salazar 253, net .208
Loney (L) 285 v 225 = 247
Zobrist (B) 295 v 225 = 255
Escobar (R) 252 v 253 = 245
Longoria (R) 281 v 253 = 273
DeJesus (L) 282 v 225 = 244
Jennings (R) 255 v 253 = 248
Myers (R) 291 v 253 = 283
Young (R) 259 v 253 = 252

Team total, .2505. Myers and Longoria are the strengths, Molina the notable weak link.

For the Indians, against Alex Cobb. Cobb is also right-handed, with a 245/226 left/right split.

Gomes (R) 272 v 226 = 236
Santana (B) 293 v 245 = 276
Kipnis (L) 291 v 245 = 274
Cabrera (B) 261 v 245 = 246
Aviles (R) 247 v 226 = 215
Brantley (L) 272 v 245 = 256
Bourn (L) 250 v 245 = 236
Swisher (B) 249 v 245 = 235
Giambi (L) 243 v 245 = 229

Team total, .2459.

[Late edit: so it seems it will Chisenhall at third instead of Aviles; he gets 252 v 245 = 237, Likewise, Raburn will play RF, pushing Swisher to 1B, Santana to DH, and iambi to the bench. So, effectively, Raburn (282 v 226 = 245) instead of Giambi. That changes the team total to .2490, which gives the Rays a .508 chance – prior to home field advantage.]

That difference spells a narrow Rays advantage, about a .523 win percentage.

Which I used as my title. However…

I haven’t accounted for home field, which should amount to about +.020 for Cleveland and -.020 for the Rays, which puts us at .503-.497 for the Rays. Nor have I accounted for (or, frankly, have any idea how to quantify) fatigue, as the Rays have been bouncing around the eastern half of North America while the Indians stayed home.