Park factor updates for early May

Updated park factors for all teams through the first 30 days of the season.

I use a weighted mean park factor for all teams – a five year moving average, weighted 3-2-1 for the one-year factors. So the park factors for 2010 use (3*2010PF + 2*2011PF + 2*2009PF + 2008PF + 2012PF)/9, assuming they are in the same park throughout.

For the current season I obviously cannot do that – I don’t know what the 2017 and 18 factor s will be – so it reduces to a 3-2-1 average of 2016, 2015, and 2014. However, it is also way too early to take the 2016 factors at face value. At this pont, one month, or about 1/6 of the season in, I’m going to use (1/6) the current season to date, plus 5/6 of last year’s weighted value. So, Arizona, who had a 1020 in 2015, a 1065 in 2014, and 971 in 2013 had a weighted average of 1027 coming into this season. That’s their baseline. They have an 1168 PF through the first month, which means I am giving them a rating of 1051 for the current season.

There are a couple of possibly random, possibly not, geographic relations in there, as weather patterns do play into the park factors:

1) The mid-Atlantic teams, Washington, Philadelphia, and Baltimore, are all strongly below average so far (-110, -111, and -100 below expectations). Most of the nearby minor league parks are as well – like Bowie (-109), Delmarva (-132), Wilmington (-108), and Potomac (-65).

2) The teams further into the northeast – Boston, Toronto, the Mets and Yankees – are all above average (+44, +61, +42, and +140). Again, most minors follow: Pawtucket is running at +152, Trenton at +62, Syracuse +88, Rochester +51, Scranton +49, New Hampshire +98, Binghamton +33, and Lakewood +202.

3) The southwest teams – Arizona, Colorado, and Texas– are well above average (+141, +90, +86). Here, though, the minor league teams do not match – Albuquerque is at -145, Colorado Springs -101, Las Vegas -65.

4) Both Chicagos are down (-54 Sox, -18 Cubs), as are the Brewers (-60), Cardinals (-91), and Twins (-106). The minors are mixed: Indianapolis (-65) fits, as does Kane County (-173) and Quad Cities (-60), but other nearby Midwest league teams do not (South Bend -10, Wisconsin +39, Peoria +78, Beloit +26), and neither does Iowa (+12).

5) Both Florida teams are down (TB -113, Miami -58). The FSL teams are useless for this comparison; Jacksonville and Pensacola are both fairly positive (+62, +52), more in common with Atlanta (+65).

6) The Tigers are +31, with the Indians (-2), Pirates (+1), and Reds (-25), forming a fairly neutral block. Erie (-1) and Altoona (-15), but the other Ohio teams are strongly negative: Columbus -89, Akron -152, Lake County -57, and Dayton -68.

7) The West Coast teams are all over the place: -1 in Seattle, +51 and -47 for the Giants and As, +36 and -93 for the Angels and Dodgers, +1 for the Padres.

8) And three as yet unmentioned: Kansas City (-2), Houston (-6), and Atlanta (+65) who tend to be in between the other teams mentioned.