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Here’s how their hitters and pitchers matched up:
Red Sox
228/255 171/254 245/226 278/272
Moore(L) Price(L) Cobb(R) Hellickson(R)
Saltalamacchia(B) 229/299 282 320
Napoli (R) 302/283 296 295 246 296
Pedroia (R) 327/261 321 319 227 273
Middlebrooks(R)274/230 269 268 200 241
Drew (L) 205/304 180 135 286 325
Gomes (R) 277/265 272 271
Ellsbury (L) 245/308 215 161 290 329
Victorino(B) 299/270 293 292 254 289
Ortiz (L) 258/357 226 170 336 282
Ross(R) 273/203 268 267
Nava(B) 236/311 293 333
Net Sox .2650 .2538 .2723 .3008
231/252 240/265 188/203 252/227
Lester(L) Lackey(R) Buchholz(R) Peavy(R)
Lobaton(B) 240/266 246 258
Loney(L) 265/287 235 265 208 278
Zobrist(B) 241/296 234 273 214 287
Longoria(R) 329/282 319 287 220 246
Escobar(R) 277/248 268 253 194 217
Rodriguez(R) 267/196 259
Jennings(R) 305/259 296 264 202 226
Myers(R) 308/286 299 292 223 250
Young(R) 266/262 258 267 205 229
Molina(R) 234/213 227 166
DeJesus(L) 111/282 260 204 273
Net Rays .2687 .2680 .2049 .2532
The matchups give the Rays a narrow advantage in three of five games, but the Red Sox advantage in the remaining two is so large that they get the benefit of the overall chances.
Game 1, Lester v Moore – Rays 51.7%
Game 2, Lackey v Price – Rays 56.8%
Game 3, Buchholz v Cobb – Red Sox 80.6%
Game 4, Peavy v Hellickson – Red Sox 70.3%
Game 5, Lester v Moore – Rays 51.7%
That works out to an expected Red Sox series victory 65.53% of the time.
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