Here’s how their hitters and pitchers matched up:

 

Red Sox
                          228/255     171/254   245/226   278/272  
                           Moore(L)  Price(L)   Cobb(R)  Hellickson(R)
Saltalamacchia(B) 229/299                         282      320
Napoli (R)     302/283      296        295        246      296
Pedroia (R)    327/261      321        319        227      273
Middlebrooks(R)274/230      269        268        200      241
Drew (L)       205/304      180        135        286      325
Gomes (R)      277/265      272        271
Ellsbury (L)   245/308      215        161        290      329
Victorino(B)   299/270      293        292        254      289
Ortiz (L)      258/357      226        170        336      282
Ross(R)        273/203      268        267
Nava(B)        236/311                            293      333

Net Sox                     .2650     .2538      .2723    .3008                  

                           231/252     240/265   188/203     252/227
                          Lester(L)   Lackey(R) Buchholz(R)  Peavy(R)
Lobaton(B)   240/266                    246                    258
Loney(L)     265/287        235         265        208         278
Zobrist(B)   241/296        234         273        214         287
Longoria(R)  329/282        319         287        220         246
Escobar(R)   277/248        268         253        194         217
Rodriguez(R) 267/196        259
Jennings(R)  305/259        296         264        202         226
Myers(R)     308/286        299         292        223         250
Young(R)     266/262        258         267        205         229
Molina(R)    234/213        227                    166
DeJesus(L)   111/282                    260        204         273

Net Rays                    .2687       .2680      .2049      .2532

The matchups give the Rays a narrow advantage in three of five games, but the Red Sox advantage in the remaining two is so large that they get the benefit of the overall chances.

Game 1, Lester v Moore – Rays 51.7%
Game 2, Lackey v Price – Rays 56.8%
Game 3, Buchholz v Cobb – Red Sox 80.6%
Game 4, Peavy v Hellickson – Red Sox 70.3%
Game 5, Lester v Moore – Rays 51.7%

That works out to an expected Red Sox series victory 65.53% of the time.

 

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