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Changes since last weekend:
Chase Anderson traded from Arizona to Milwaukee
Joins a Brewer rotation with nine potential starters and it isn’t completely
obvious who the best 1 is, let alone the best 5. FWIW, he rates as the 3rd best
projection, and should keep a regular slot in the Brewer’s rotation this year.
Anthony Bass Free agent, going to Japan
Marginal bullpen guy; played parts of five season in the majors, but always
had at least a little minor league time as well.
Jesse Biddle traded from Philadelphia to Pittsburgh
Didn’t have him projected to pitch for Philadelphia this year, so that
certainly won’t change with a tougher Pittsburgh lineup.
Greg Bird injured
Shades of Nick Johnson. He figured to get a lot of playing time in New York,
thanks to the fragility of Teixeira and Rodriguez. As I try to work out the
playing time, it seems to me like Aaron Hicks may be a beneficiary – shifting
Ackley to first and Beltran to more DH will open outfield time.
Jeremy Bleich free agent signed by Philadelphia
Does not project to make the team.
Andrew Brown free agent signed by Angels
28 HR season for Korea’s SK Wyverns last season, but in translation it is
virtually identical to his 2014 Las Vegas season – the one that left him in a
position where he has to go to Korea to find a job. The projection at .252 is
surprisingly optimistic, and the Angels’ outfield depth chart beyond Trout and
Calhoun is pretty bad, so there could be an opening for him at some point of
the season.
Darrell Ceciliani traded from Mets to Toronto
There are a lot of contenders for outfield spots in Toronto, and Ceciliani’s
projected 1.3 WARP is only sixth best on the team. He’s got a good chance at
playing sometime this season, depending on injuries, but it would take a lot
to get him into a lead role.
Maikel Cleto free agent signed by White Sox
Slots as somewhere around the 12th option for the Sox bullpen, which puts him
on the border of zero innings.
Tyler Cloyd free agent signed by Yankees
Shouldn’t crack the team.
Louis Coleman released by Kansas City
Middle of the pack option; should get picked up somewhere.
Jean Cosme traded from Baltimore to San Diego
Only pitched at Aberdeen (short-season A) in 2015, so years away – if ever.
Odrisamer Despaigne traded from San Diego to Baltimore
Not just moving from the NL to the AL, but from spacious Petco to cozy
Camden Yards. It won’t be pretty.
Isan Diaz traded from Arizone to Milwaukee
The 2015 Pioneer League MVP, he hit for a .333 EqA in Missoula (.276
translated). There’s not a whole lot of corelation between hitting .330 at
age 19 in rookie ball and having a major league career – for every Manny
Ramirez and Jim Thome (#1 and #2 in PIO/APL EQA at age 19) there’s a Mike
Restovich and Jesus Cota (#3 and #4). He’s got a few big comps (Corey Seager,
Darryl Strawberry) and a lot of nobodies. Intriguing but far from guaranteed.
Chris Dwyer free agent signed by Baltimore
No impact.
Gavin Floyd free agent rumored to sign with Toronto
Not likely to be able to contribute much, but could be the key to keeping
Roberto Hernandez from appearing on the mound.
Christian Friedrich waived from Colorado to Angels
Goes from the middle of the Rockie pen to much tougher competition – I can’t
even give him any innings now.
Yovani Gallardo free agent rumored to sign with Baltimore
If its true, it would help immensely as an innings-eater, and pushes away
innings I’d previously allocated to Vance Worley and Mike Wright; with
Gallardo they can go back to being a very ocasional starter.
Conor Gillaspie free agent signed by San Francisco
Disastrous 2015 was well below his established standards. Assuming he can
return to those prior standards, he makes a better insurance policy for Matt
Duffy than anyone else on the Giants’ roster. He could be a regular
backup/pinch hitter.
Jonny Gomes gone to Japan
Offensive projections are down to barely replacement level, defensively
challenged and platoon-limited.
Raywilly Gomez free agent signed by Mets
Catcher with a reasonably good bat, but yet to play above AA. Could
potentially get called up if injuries hit the Mets’ leading catchers, but
those roles usually goes to defensively solid guys. That doesn’t describe
Raywilly.
Angelo Gumbs free agent signed by Reds
Half of his top 20 comps did not play anymore.
Aaron Hill traded from Arizona to Milwaukee
Hill was expected to be a utility IF in Arizona, and could well be the same in
Milwaukee. One obvious ploy is as a platoon partner for Gennett at second. He
could also be a semi-regular at third base, and could arguably be the best 3B
option if the team was in win now mode. Since they’re not, expect him to be
there as the Brewers cast and reject multiple auditions.
Edgar Ibarra free agent signed by Philadelphia
Pretty generic bullpen arm. He is lefty, albeit without a particularly large
split. I could see him getting called up for a few weeks.
Don Kelly free agent signed by Miami
Had Tommy John surgery on his throwing arm last July. Since he can play
everywhere, and he’s suitably grizzled, he might stick around, but I’m not
slotting him in anywhere just yet.
Blake Lalli free agent signed by Atlanta
If the Braves need a sixth catcher in 2016, he’s their man.
Dae Ho Lee free agent signed by Seattle
A big, big guy – my card says 6’4″, 220, but apparently more like 300 now –
who strated in Korea but played the last four years in Japan. He led the JPL
in EqR in his first year there, 2013, and finished 5th each of the last three
years. His projection won’t put him ahead of either Adam Lind or Jesus
Montero, who I currently have penciled in for 1B and DH, but Montero has yet
to demonstrate that he can meet a projection. I’d call this a legitimate
player battle.
Steven Lerud free agent signed by Seattle
Replaces Jesus Sucre and his broken leg as the backup catcher in Tacoma.
Tyler Massey free agent signed by Colorado
Below replacement, won’t matter in Denver.
Yoervis Medina traded from Pittsburgh to Philadelphia
Had him down for a token 10 ip in Pitt. In Philadelphia, he projects as one of
their better pitchers – more of an indictment of them than an endorsement of
him, OK?
Jared Mitchell free agent signed by Yankees
Deep depth.
Jonathan Mota free agent signed by Cubs
Not happening.
Matt Murton free agent signed by Cubs
He’s going to try to returns to the Cubs after six years in Japan. Four of
those six were vintage Murton – high contact and average, no power, speed, or
walks. The other two, which includes 2015, were sub-par. I don’t really see a
path to playinmg time for him, not do I expect much from him if he finds one.
I’ll give him a token 5% PH role.
Hideki Okajima free agent signed by Baltimore
Certainly a blast from the past. Had a solid Japanese season in ’14, but only
had 10 miserabe appearances last year. He could find a spot in the back end of
the bullpen – but probably won’t.
Miguel Olivo free agent signed by San Francisco
I suppose Tijuana was a reasonable place for a guy with an Evander Holifield
act. Generally, these “give the old guy who used to play another spring”
signings go to guys who were good citizens in their playing days; on the other
hand, you can never have enough catchers in spring training.
Carlos Quentin free agent signed by Minnesota
Like Olivo, without the ear-biting. Quentin isn’t really that old (34 in
August), but its a brittle 34. Maybe his knees are better after a year off, or
maybe he’s just forgotten how much they hurt when stressed. I’d certainly call
Park the better option today, and maybe Max Kepler and Kennys Vargas as well.
I’ll give him a 5% though.
Esmil Rogers gone to Korea
Marginal anyway.
Deibinson Romero free agent signed by Yankees
A third baseman by trade, Romero spent most of 2015 in Korea and was terrible.
I think the .259 projection is way optimistic – the projection scheme for BA tends to
average out guys who are consistently way below average, whcih applies here.
The Yankees don’t have a real 3B behind Headley – I expect to see a SS or 2B
there when Chase needs a day off, so it makes some organizational sense.
Vinny Rottino free agent signed by White Sox
Negative projected WARP; very unlikely to see a major league park.
Brendan Ryan free agent signed by Washington
Most zombie movies seem to think that you have to shoot them in the head in order to
stop them. For baseball zombies, though, its gotta be the glove. The Nationals
have now picked up ex-New York infielders Daniel Murphy, Stephen Drew, and
Ryan – maybe they’ll try to lure Derek Jeter out of retirement?
Jean Segura traded from Milwaukee to Arizona
Presumably the starter at shortstop, even though I don’t rate him that much
higher than Owings or Ahmed. Or 2B Gosselin, for that matter.
Carlos Torres released by Mets
Kind of surprising, but bullpens are a whole lot of mix and match.
Ronald Torreyes waived from Angels to Yankees
I did have him for a cup of coffee with the Angels, trying to avoid giving
Cliff Pennington more time. I’ll do the same with the Yankees, dislodging time
that was Pete Kozma’s.
Tyler Wagner traded from Milwaukee to Arizona
A pretty good minor league pitcher the last two years, with a few caveats.
He’s been old for his leagues (High-A at 23, AA 24); and he’s scored very high
in what I call the luck components, for Batting Average and Delta Runs, which
isn’t likely to continue. He’ll still be one of the higher-ranked arms in the
organization outside Phoenix, which puts him in good shape for 4-10 starts
during the season.
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