Updates and changes by 4/12

Not quite two weeks into the season, and already a number of expected starters have dropped off the radar for the season.

Players who changed teams: Eduardo Nunez from NYY to MIN, the Mariners lose Carlos Triunfel to the Dodgers, Mike Fontenot goes from the Nationals to the Rays, the Cubs release Mitch Maier, the Brewers release Joe Thurston, Henry Blanco retires from the Diamondbacks, and the Giants waive Roger Kieschnick and the Diamondbacks pick him up; Nunez was the only one of the group I expected to have more than token playing time.

Among pitchers, Pedro Beato goes from the Reds to the Braves, Michael Brady travels from Miami to Anaheim, Prestonm Guilmet is traded from Cleveland to Baltimore, and Brian Omogrosso was released by the White Sox. I don’t think any of the pitchers were projected for more than 20 innings.

Other adjustments:
Braves: Dan Uggla’s .146 EQA has me raising the chances of him being replaced, by either Pastornicky or La Stella; BJ Upton’s .125 won’t hold off Logan Schafer. Ian Thomas, Gus Schlosser, and Pedro Beato pick up bullpen garbage time. The Marlins have to deal with Jacob Turner’ shoulder injury…I’ve taken 10 starts off him for now, but its still TBD how much time he’ll miss. The Mets had a more drastic shakeup of the pitching staff. With Parnell out, Valverde takes over as closer, and Torres moves to a setup slot that pretty much removes him from starter contention. It also looks like Duda has moved ahead of Davis in the first base race. Nothing changed for the Phillies except a little shaking out of the back end of the bullpen. The Nationals lose a month of Wilson Ramos; it also looks like Ryan Zimmerman will get time at 1B, which likely works out to plus time for Danny Espinosa.

Orioles: Small changes. Boosted Delmon Young at Nolan Reimold’s expense, raised the innings for guys currently in the pen like Britton, Stinson, and Meek; took Suk-min Yoon out of starter contention down the line after a disastrous first start in Norfolk. For Boston, The injuries to Middlebrooks and Victorino don’t really change their projections, but Bradley’s early hitting raises his future – that comes off my projections for Nava, Gomes, and Carp. Ryan Roberts slots in as a 3B backup. For the Yankees Yangervis Solarte soaks up most of the PA I’d given to Nunez. Scott Sizemore is off to a hot start, which could push out one of Brian Roberts or Kelly Johnson. No big changes for the Jays, while in Tampa Matt Moore’s injury really shakes up the rotation. I’ll bring in Erik Bedard for a dozen starts, add Cesar Ramos for a few, enhance Matt Andriese and Nate Karns, and shore up Jake Odorizzi’s job security.

White Sox: Avisail Garcia’s shoulder injury forces the Sox into the outfield I’d have started with (never been a Garcia fan). The forecasts for all of them were a little muddy, with four fairly equal players for three spots; Jordan Danks is less likely to force any of Eaton/Viciedo/De Aza out of a job. I guessed wrong about Nate Jones getting the closer job out of camp, so there’s a pretty strong bullpen shuffle there. Lindstrom’s not clearly better than any of Downs, Webb, or Jones, but the guy who has the job now has a clear advantage for playing time over any contender. No substantive changes for the Indians. The Carlos Santana experiment has lasted this long, so it gets a little bump up. Twins: Scaled back Buxton’s arrival, as his wrist injury isn’t healing rapidly…plus, its a wrist injury. Terrible ting for a ballplayer. Switched Chris Colabello in for things that were Parmelee. For the Tigers, the only thing I’ve got is some worry about Joe Nathan. I don’t have even that much to change for the Royals.

The A’s needed a lot of work, led by the demotion of Jim Johnson from closer. He could straighten himself out and regain the role, so he retains a share of the saves, but only as part of an even spread. The first base/DH spot is breaking a little differently than I envisioned, although more Callaspo/less Barton is a pretty good call for the team. In LA, the Angels will be without Josh Hamilton for a quarter of the season after he hurt his thumb sliding head-first into first. That should mean a lot more JB Shuck, as well as more Cowbell…er, excuse me, Cowgill…thrown in as well. I also did a little reshuffling in the bullpen, with Burnett being slow to return and Brian Moran lost for the season. The Rangers’ rotation remains an injury-riddled mess, with Scott Baker added as another option. With the Mariners, I shorted Logan Morrison a bit, as we get to see how the OF/1B/DH shuffle arranges itself. Nothing has changed yet for the Astros.

Arizona is already starting to question their starting pitching choices in the wake of Patrick Corbin’s injury, as Randall Delgado will move to relief while Josh Collmenter gets another shot at starting. Archie Bradley will be up there sooner or later. The Dodgers were pretty much set – though I did change second base from “Leans Dee Gordon” to “Safe Dee Gordon”. For the Giants, I enhanced Michael Morse as a clearer LF starter. With the Padres, I didn’t even have that. All I’ve got for the Rockies is to clarify Charlie Blackmon as the primary center fielder.

Chicago’s Cubs are another team getting into the closer shuffle, as Jose Veras is demoted. I also have to go stronger on Emilio Bonifacio than I wanted to. The Cardinals are still just as set as they were coming in – I’m just amazed at how much minor league talent they still have in the wings. With the Brewers, Henderson loses the closer fight with Francisco Rodriguez, among many changes in their bullpen from my forecast. For Cincinnati, I’m getting extremely worried about Mat Latos’ condition, so he gets a big drop in starts. On the plus side, Aroldis Chapman seems to be coming along on the short side of initial estimates, so his PT actually egts raised a bit. The biggest change I made for the Pirates is to bump up Gregory Polanco’s time, because the way he’s hammering AAA they won’t be able to keep him down much longer.