claydavenport.com
This will be regularly updated in the “Projected Standings” tab on the header menu. You can access all teams and players from the links.
Clay Davenport’s Projections for 2012
generated on 1-21-2012
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I guess team fielding isn’t being factored in this, or the fact that Boston will have Alfredo Aceves and Daniel Bard in their rotations….Good thing this is early, huh?
Did you follow the link to the Boston page? Bard and Aceves are clearly entered in the rotation, with ~20 starts apiece. I’m not willing to go any higher than that yet.
*Beautiful theories about position changes in January are, more often than not, slain by cruel facts in March and April.
*Reliever to starter conversions have a high risk of being reversed at any time during the season
I have a very hard time believing that both Aceves and Bard will make 25 starts, and I’d there’s a ~20% chance that one of them makes no starts at all. I’m listening to what the team says is their plan, but I’m also passing my judgement on the likelihood that the plan will work all season long. I sure as hell would not go into a fantasy draft now and pay either one of them the price of a full-time starter.
Once they manage to take a few successful starting turns in spring I’ll revise upwards.
Clay, are the relief->starter projections adjusted for role? It seems like Chris Sale, Neftali Feliz, Aceves and Bard are projected to perform at the same rates they’d projected to have as relievers, but with more innings as starters. Relievers moved to the rotation should see a degradation in rate of performance, something like 15-20% higher in ERA. If that’s already in there, nevermind.
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your projections on the rays are laughable
You want to be a little bit more specific?
Slugging does look strangely low across the board for TB. Almost everyone is about 30-60 points lower than their zips projection. You may want to check those numbers.
Also, their team page says “85-77”, but the standings say a game worse.
Any chance to get all the player projections linked in one excel sheet? Thanks in advance – interesting stuff.
Hi Clay, for the Giants, a couple of things stood out:
– Brandon Crawford is the projected starting SS, not Mike Fontenot
– Bochy-endorsed RF Nate Schierholtz needs a projection!
I highly doubt this improves my Giants’ projected W-L but thought I’d point them out, if they weren’t already factored/about to be factored into your system.
Sooo the A’s will get better after trading away their team and the Angels will stay the same after adding Pujols and Wilson?
A few comments on the Mets:
* I think the 72 win outcome is reasonable, and as a Mets fans, I’ll sadly take it.
* Barring injury, I’d be shocked if Ronny Cedeno gets 2x the starts at SS as Ruben Tejada.
* One of the Mets front office staff — I think DePodesta? — has said that the way the team intends to treat SP prospects is by giving them one-way tickets to NYC. That is, when a SP comes up, it is with the expectation that he not go back to AAA. I think you’ll see more of Hefner and Schwindin and less of Familia and perhaps Mejia. You may also see some Matt Harvey, if the team thinks he can go from September call-up to Opening Day 2013 rotation. But that’s a minor nit.
* Another minor nit: Beato almost certainly will not make the team out of camp.
Good stuff, tho.