First things first – I now have the way too soon, already out of date, Team Projections for 2021 up and available.

Of course, posting them on the day of the non-tender deadline means most teams have at least one player in my projection that is already compromised. And of course, teams have yet to fill the gaping holes (like the Nationals 1B slot) that you know will be taken by some current free agent. Still, its nice to have a snapshot of where the team stood when they started making decisions about 2021.

generated on 12- 2-2020, projections for 2021 season

AL East Won Lost Runs RunsA
NYY 92 70 845 737
TBY 86 76 769 726
BOS 83 79 837 816
TOR 78 84 779 803
BAL 70 92 707 808
AL Cent Won Lost Runs RunsA
MIN 87 75 809 747
CLE 84 78 764 749
CWS 82 80 788 772
KCR 72 90 714 799
DET 69 93 673 785
AL West Won Lost Runs RunsA
HOU 89 73 818 742
LAA 83 79 812 792
OAK 81 81 743 743
TEX 77 85 755 783
SEA 71 91 703 791
NL East Won Lost Runs RunsA
ATL 91 71 815 719
NYM 86 76 752 707
WAS 83 79 735 723
PHI 80 82 738 750
MIA 74 88 673 739
NL Cent Won Lost Runs RunsA
MIL 86 76 750 706
CHC 83 79 756 738
CIN 82 80 755 748
STL 77 85 707 744
PIT 73 89 700 777
NL West Won Lost Runs RunsA
LAD 96 66 843 704
SDP 89 73 779 707
ARI 81 81 768 768
COL 77 85 783 819
SFG 67 95 665 792

One thing I am pretty certain about – not just for me, but everybody else doing projections, from BP to FanGraphs to ESPN, Rotowire, Rotoworld, and every other fantasy site – projections are going to be worse in 2021 than in prior years. Having a 2020 season that was only 60 games – and even then, only for the majors – every player is coming off of what we would, previously, have labelled a missed or truncated season. Our sample sizes are smaller than ever.

To balance that, I tried something I never did before. The “2020” season that is going through the program, combining with 2019 and 2018 stats to make a 2021 projections, is a blend of whatever the player really did in 2020 with the projection I made going in to 2020. For every minor leaguer, who had no 2020 season at all (or at least nothing with public statistics!), there is nothing to blend – the 2020 projection is their entire line.

I can’t say I’m enthused with the results, but testing says it was a lot better than going with zero seasons or taking 2020 results at full face value.

 

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