Chris Davis’ power projection

Davis’ component-power score is only projected to be a +35 (he says “only”), after putting up a surprising 50 last year.

His three-year line for power going into 2014 is 29, 27, 50. I did a quick search for players who

1) had 250 PA each across a four season span
2) were 26-30 in the fourth season (Davis will be 28 this year);
3) averaged at least a +15 power in the first two years
4) was at least 15 runs better than each of the first two years

That gave us this list:

               yr4  age4 pow1 pow2 pow3 pow4 pow4-3
Jack Cust      2008   29   9   26   43   41   -2
Juan Diaz      2001   27  20   12   39   31   -8
Jim Gentile    1962   28  19   26   51   25  -26
Willie Horton  1969   26  22   26   41   21  -20
Todd Hundley   1997   28  19   20   43   36   -7
Adam LaRoche   2007   27  17   15   33   14  -19
Joey Meyer     1988   26  22   21   43   17  -26
Jai Miller     2012   27  20   19   38   16  -22
Kevin Mitchell 1990   28  16   18   54   32  -22
Mike Napoli    2009   27  22   15   39   19  -20
Dave Nicholson 1969   29  19   17   37   20  -17
Gene Oliver    1962   27  20   14   35   10  -25
David Ortiz    2004   28  17   17   32   34    2
Carlos Pena    2008   30  24   14   52   31  -21
Mark Reynolds  2010   26  20   22   39   34   -5
Tony Solaita   1976   29  22   19   54   15  -39
Gorman Thomas  1979   28  22   28   48   55    7
Jason Thompson 1982   27  12   21   42   30  -12
Jim Wynn       1968   26  15   16   35   29   -6

Only 2 out of 19 players (David Ortiz and Gorman Thomas) managed to up their power score yet again in the fourth year. The mean change from year3 is -15; the media change is -20. After averaging 42 in the boom year, they averaged a (still repectable, and still better than the first two years) 27 in the fourth year.