The Nationals added Edwin Jackson to their rotation, which gave me a good reason to run another update.
He’s a no-doubt rotation member, and actually goes straight to #1 on my rankings for them if you rank by innings. He, Gio Gonzalez, Stephen Strasburg, and Jordan Zimmermann make a pretty strong front four – perhaps not quite a match for the Phillies, but very strong. It also puts them in a position where at least one of Ross Detwiler or John Lannan goes underutilized (I have no idea where Chien-Ming Wang fits in, but I haven’t been able to run any projections that like him for 2012).
He pushes their projected record up a notch to 80-82. Their projected run totals – 4th best in the majors in the pitching, 6th-worst in batting – point to a seriously unbalanced team. Their offense has fallen into the “OK trap” – with the exception of Ryan Zimmerman at third, everybody on the roster looks to be an OK player for the position, neither good enough to help the team towards a title nor bad enough that an easy upgrade is available. Even the deservedly-maligned Roger Bernadina projects as an average major league hitter. You’re not going to do any better with a Marlon Byrd or Vernon Wells, who strike me as the kind of guys you might be able to get for a John Lannan. And no, I don’t think Bryce Harper is a savior for this season – the K rates he’s shown make him a bad risk for jumping straight to the majors.
Clay Davenport’s Projections for 2012
generated on 2- 2-2012
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