Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Feb 16 18:43:10 EST 2020
Average wins by position in AL East: 102.3 91.4 83.5 74.2 60.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .607 100.2 61.8 72.86622 19.34920 92.21542 Rays 0 0 .539 88.6 73.4 16.01197 39.33090 55.34286 Red Sox 0 0 .522 85.5 76.5 9.67265 31.33306 41.00571 Blue Jays 0 0 .467 75.7 86.3 1.41339 8.18061 9.59400 Orioles 0 0 .390 62.1 99.9 .03578 .31405 .34982
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.6 86.3 78.8 69.0 59.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .533 89.8 72.2 50.00383 14.55564 64.55946 Indians 0 0 .512 86.1 75.9 31.16209 16.07198 47.23407 White Sox 0 0 .488 82.1 79.9 17.58891 12.23915 29.82806 Tigers 0 0 .394 65.4 96.6 .65743 .56759 1.22501 Royals 0 0 .391 64.9 97.1 .58775 .49804 1.08579
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.2 87.8 80.8 74.4 66.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 0 0 .591 97.6 64.4 76.78873 11.33068 88.11942 Angels 0 0 .513 83.5 78.5 11.80094 21.12286 32.92380 Athletics 0 0 .496 81.2 80.8 8.05517 16.22951 24.28468 Mariners 0 0 .455 73.4 88.6 1.74332 4.59741 6.34073 Rangers 0 0 .449 73.0 89.0 1.61184 4.27932 5.89116 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.8 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 89.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.4 88.9 83.0 76.7 66.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 0 0 .567 90.5 71.5 42.83930 22.24463 65.08392 Nationals 0 0 .543 87.2 74.8 27.95478 22.95066 50.90544 Braves 0 0 .528 84.0 78.0 17.48303 19.23613 36.71915 Phillies 0 0 .511 81.2 80.8 10.95808 14.67702 25.63509 Marlins 0 0 .441 68.5 93.5 .76482 1.54862 2.31343
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.1 86.1 80.7 75.0 66.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Reds 0 0 .530 85.3 76.7 33.08913 12.52143 45.61055 Brewers 0 0 .523 84.0 78.0 27.38767 11.93489 39.32256 Cubs 0 0 .519 83.5 78.5 25.62173 11.70997 37.33171 Cardinals 0 0 .488 78.3 83.7 11.31381 7.06457 18.37838 Pirates 0 0 .444 70.6 91.4 2.58767 1.84607 4.43374
Average wins by position in NL West: 103.4 89.2 80.9 72.2 61.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .626 102.5 59.5 85.06812 10.54897 95.61708 Padres 0 0 .528 85.3 76.7 8.66495 33.04166 41.70661 Diamondbacks 0 0 .516 82.9 79.1 5.57618 25.42013 30.99631 Rockies 0 0 .455 72.5 89.5 .61797 4.62282 5.24079 Giants 0 0 .410 64.5 97.5 .07278 .63244 .70522 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
