Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Jul 18 08:03:26 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  106.8 100.1 82.1 74.5 54.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           68   30   .594  106.0   56.0   79.53980   20.45272   99.99252
Yankees           62   33   .562  100.8   61.2   20.45970   79.07600   99.53570
Rays              49   47   .485   81.5   80.5     .00050    2.40942    2.40992
Blue Jays         43   52   .477   75.1   86.9     .00000     .08764     .08764
Orioles           28   69   .425   54.6  107.4     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.1 80.0 69.7 61.4 54.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           52   43   .595   93.0   69.0   97.90147     .12898   98.03044
Twins             44   50   .523   79.8   82.2    2.09302     .77369    2.86671
Tigers            41   57   .448   69.6   92.4     .00542     .00040     .00582
White Sox         33   62   .423   60.9  101.1     .00010     .00000     .00010
Royals            27   68   .422   55.5  106.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  100.1 92.0 86.6 81.1 73.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            64   35   .578   99.8   62.2   89.33982    9.65984   98.99966
Mariners          58   39   .520   91.3   70.7    9.28555   62.28390   71.56945
Athletics         55   42   .498   86.8   75.2    1.25468   21.82323   23.07792
Angels            49   48   .509   81.7   80.3     .11995    3.26501    3.38496
Rangers           41   56   .505   73.3   88.7     .00000     .03917     .03917

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  100.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  91.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.8 86.8 83.0 72.3 65.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Phillies          53   42   .494   86.8   75.2   32.16279   22.71896   54.88176
Braves            52   42   .519   87.9   74.1   43.60271   21.37034   64.97305
Nationals         48   48   .557   85.8   76.2   24.20168   20.94601   45.14769
Marlins           41   57   .400   65.9   96.1     .00073     .00020     .00093
Mets              39   55   .483   71.8   90.2     .03209     .04585     .07794

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.5 88.0 82.7 77.8 72.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              55   38   .544   93.9   68.1   81.08530   14.21079   95.29609
Brewers           55   43   .514   87.7   74.3   16.06868   46.59502   62.66371
Cardinals         48   46   .510   82.4   79.6    2.54605   14.94682   17.49287
Pirates           48   49   .470   78.2   83.8     .29126    2.46447    2.75573
Reds              43   53   .449   72.9   89.1     .00871     .11292     .12163

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.9 86.4 83.3 79.7 66.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           53   43   .557   89.5   72.5   64.88648   13.55204   78.43852
Diamondbacks      53   44   .481   84.0   78.0   13.32958   15.83963   29.16921
Rockies           51   45   .506   84.1   77.9   14.30238   16.01521   30.31759
Giants            50   48   .506   82.6   79.4    7.48115   11.18105   18.66220
Padres            40   59   .430   66.8   95.2     .00040     .00069     .00109

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.