Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Jul 21 07:37:32 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 87.8 84.5 82.1 79.7 76.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Orioles 53 44 .510 84.9 77.1 40.23292 11.26137 51.49429 Blue Jays 51 48 .535 83.1 78.9 24.41019 10.58328 34.99347 Yankees 50 47 .509 81.7 80.3 15.52404 7.81675 23.34080 Rays 47 53 .562 80.5 81.5 9.57734 5.84869 15.42603 Red Sox 46 52 .565 80.6 81.4 10.25552 6.18448 16.43999
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.7 83.7 80.2 77.1 73.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 54 41 .531 89.2 72.8 81.61730 5.32928 86.94657 Indians 50 48 .494 81.6 80.4 9.65833 11.39255 21.05088 Royals 48 49 .501 80.2 81.8 5.75006 7.17280 12.92287 White Sox 47 52 .495 77.6 84.4 2.09814 2.48576 4.58389 Twins 44 53 .486 75.4 86.6 .87617 .82496 1.70114
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.3 91.0 83.6 73.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 61 37 .554 96.5 65.5 77.80503 21.78736 99.59238 Angels 59 38 .521 91.5 70.5 21.22548 72.24767 93.47316 Mariners 52 46 .512 83.9 78.1 .96888 36.98000 37.94888 Astros 41 58 .490 71.0 91.0 .00055 .05630 .05685 Rangers 39 59 .499 70.1 91.9 .00005 .02874 .02879 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.2 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 90.5 85.1 78.7 74.9 70.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 54 44 .490 85.9 76.1 29.50298 31.92704 61.43002 Nationals 53 43 .532 89.3 72.7 68.90172 17.56742 86.46915 Mets 46 52 .469 76.5 85.5 .86028 1.99414 2.85442 Marlins 45 52 .475 75.9 86.1 .67112 1.63808 2.30920 Phillies 43 55 .449 72.1 89.9 .06390 .17335 .23726
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.2 86.6 83.5 79.8 69.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 54 45 .514 87.1 74.9 39.79896 30.92303 70.72198 Brewers 54 45 .513 86.9 75.1 37.60535 30.98288 68.58823 Pirates 52 46 .502 84.3 77.7 15.80578 27.78866 43.59443 Reds 51 47 .476 81.7 80.3 6.78321 15.46023 22.24344 Cubs 40 57 .452 69.6 92.4 .00671 .03398 .04069
Average wins by position in NL West: 89.8 84.2 76.7 72.9 69.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 55 45 .528 88.7 73.3 70.90498 14.21996 85.12494 Giants 54 44 .484 85.2 76.8 28.67052 26.46139 55.13190 Padres 43 55 .456 72.3 89.7 .11110 .19892 .31002 Diamondbacks 43 56 .484 73.9 88.1 .20228 .42862 .63090 Rockies 40 58 .497 72.7 89.3 .11112 .20230 .31341 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 88.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 85.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
