Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Sep 27 08:01:06 EDT 2016
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.0 89.5 87.4 83.1 67.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 92 64 .524 95.0 67.0 99.82790 .17210 100.00000 Blue Jays 86 70 .562 89.2 72.8 .17210 93.63462 93.80672 Orioles 85 71 .517 87.7 74.3 .00000 67.08002 67.08002 Yankees 80 76 .499 83.1 78.9 .00000 .16684 .16684 Rays 65 91 .507 67.8 94.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.0 86.2 82.1 78.2 58.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 91 65 .540 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Tigers 83 73 .515 86.2 75.8 .00000 18.91192 18.91192 Royals 79 77 .493 82.1 79.9 .00000 .00071 .00071 White Sox 75 81 .499 78.2 83.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 56 100 .503 58.8 103.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 94.9 86.4 84.5 72.6 69.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 92 65 .512 94.9 67.1 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mariners 83 73 .549 86.2 75.8 .00000 18.37072 18.37072 Astros 82 75 .564 84.7 77.3 .00000 1.66308 1.66308 Angels 70 87 .506 72.5 89.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 67 89 .504 69.6 92.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.5 85.7 80.3 72.7 65.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 91 65 .517 94.5 67.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mets 83 74 .525 85.7 76.3 .00000 84.16693 84.16692 Marlins 78 78 .496 80.3 80.7 .00000 .08380 .08380 Phillies 70 86 .418 72.7 89.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 63 92 .409 65.9 95.1 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 103.2 84.4 79.9 73.1 68.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 100 56 .544 103.2 58.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cardinals 81 75 .496 84.4 77.6 .00000 40.47811 40.47811 Pirates 77 79 .509 79.9 82.1 .00000 .03976 .03976 Brewers 71 86 .440 73.1 88.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 66 90 .426 68.4 93.6 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.2 85.3 75.8 69.2 67.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 90 66 .554 93.2 68.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Giants 82 74 .515 85.3 76.7 .00000 75.23141 75.23141 Rockies 73 83 .443 75.8 86.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 66 90 .449 68.7 93.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 65 91 .458 67.9 94.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 86.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 85.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
