Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Oct 6 07:52:28 EDT 2022


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.0 92.0 86.0 83.0 78.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           99   63   .546   99.0   63.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Blue Jays         92   70   .580   92.0   70.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rays              86   76   .527   86.0   76.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Orioles           83   79   .441   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Red Sox           78   84   .483   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.0 81.0 78.0 66.0 65.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Guardians         92   70   .516   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
White Sox         81   81   .529   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             78   84   .515   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            66   96   .412   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            65   97   .472   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  106.0 90.0 73.0 68.0 60.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros           106   56   .536  106.0   56.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mariners          90   72   .497   90.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Angels            73   89   .496   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           68   94   .473   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         60  102   .417   60.0  102.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  92.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  90.0
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  86.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  101.0 101.0 87.0 69.0 55.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves           101   61   .560  101.0   61.0   50.03550   49.96450  100.00000
Mets             101   61   .535  101.0   61.0   49.96450   50.03550  100.00000
Phillies          87   75   .519   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Marlins           69   93   .455   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Nationals         55  107   .409   55.0  107.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.0 86.0 74.0 62.0 62.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         93   69   .527   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Brewers           86   76   .553   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Cubs              74   88   .517   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           62  100   .424   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              62  100   .441   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  111.0 89.0 81.0 74.0 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers          111   51   .603  111.0   51.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Padres            89   73   .552   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Giants            81   81   .522   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      74   88   .437   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           68   94   .480   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  101.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  87.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.