Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Oct 2 08:05:15 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 108.0 100.0 90.0 73.0 47.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 108 54 .581 108.0 54.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Yankees 100 62 .567 100.0 62.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Rays 90 72 .488 90.0 72.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 73 89 .485 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 47 115 .415 47.0 115.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.0 78.0 64.0 62.0 58.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 91 71 .593 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Twins 78 84 .522 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 64 98 .444 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 62 100 .431 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 58 104 .430 58.0 104.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 103.0 97.0 89.0 80.0 67.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 103 59 .577 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Athletics 97 65 .502 97.0 65.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Mariners 89 73 .514 89.0 73.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 80 82 .510 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 67 95 .502 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 100.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 97.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 90.0 82.0 80.0 77.0 63.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 90 72 .517 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Nationals 82 80 .548 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 80 82 .492 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 77 85 .479 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 63 98 .404 63.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.0 95.0 88.0 82.0 67.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 96 67 .512 96.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cubs 95 68 .539 95.0 68.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Cardinals 88 74 .507 88.0 74.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 82 79 .484 82.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 67 95 .451 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 92.0 91.0 82.0 73.0 66.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 92 71 .573 92.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rockies 91 72 .508 91.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 82 80 .488 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 73 89 .501 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 66 96 .420 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 94.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
