Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Apr 17 08:04:03 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.1 89.3 84.9 80.6 74.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees            9    6   .544   85.5   76.5   20.08023   25.92400   46.00423
Blue Jays          8    6   .523   81.8   80.2   10.08832   18.14818   28.23650
Orioles            7    7   .531   82.1   79.9   10.65143   18.83059   29.48201
Rays               7    8   .561   86.2   75.8   23.06482   26.51774   49.58256
Red Sox            6    9   .583   89.0   73.0   36.11521   27.75757   63.87279

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.0 84.8 79.7 74.5 67.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
White Sox          8    7   .505   80.8   81.2   16.61617   10.28575   26.90192
Indians            7    7   .508   80.8   81.2   16.56778   10.24510   26.81288
Tigers             6    5   .551   88.5   73.5   55.78088   10.44715   66.22803
Royals             6    7   .493   77.6   84.4    9.13598    6.45983   15.59581
Twins              6    7   .449   70.6   91.4    1.89919    1.38739    3.28658

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.7 85.3 80.1 74.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         10    5   .525   86.1   75.9   39.60643   13.41548   53.02191
Rangers            8    7   .527   84.5   77.5   31.25222   13.20214   44.45437
Mariners           7    7   .469   75.0   87.0    4.86559    3.94264    8.80823
Angels             7    8   .525   82.5   79.5   22.40974   12.03156   34.44130
Astros             5   10   .462   70.8   91.2    1.86602    1.40486    3.27088

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.5

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.7 86.6 80.0 74.5 68.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            10    4   .506   86.6   75.4   28.62247   29.42334   58.04581
Nationals          9    6   .548   91.9   70.1   62.05612   19.72603   81.78214
Mets               8    7   .453   75.7   86.3    3.53146    7.75888   11.29033
Phillies           6    8   .462   75.0   87.0    3.20452    6.71794    9.92246
Marlins            6   10   .464   74.6   87.4    2.58544    6.11980    8.70524

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.8 87.0 81.2 75.3 65.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           11    4   .497   85.0   77.0   21.19038   27.80119   48.99156
Cardinals          9    6   .557   92.1   69.9   62.50999   19.60337   82.11337
Pirates            7    8   .496   80.0   82.0    8.31284   16.54290   24.85574
Reds               6    9   .497   79.6   82.4    7.61978   15.86263   23.48240
Cubs               4   10   .432   67.4   94.6     .36702    1.09955    1.46657

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.9 84.6 80.0 75.4 69.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Giants            10    5   .487   82.8   79.2   26.64099   13.82443   40.46542
Dodgers            9    6   .510   85.9   76.1   43.09396   13.69777   56.79173
Padres             7    8   .472   77.8   84.2   10.92870    7.85022   18.77892
Rockies            7    9   .486   79.3   82.7   14.45030    9.58839   24.03869
Diamondbacks       4   14   .482   74.6   87.4    4.88605    4.38356    9.26960

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.