Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Mar 24 23:46:51 EDT 2020
Average wins by position in AL East: 62.5 56.3 51.3 46.0 37.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .572 59.7 42.3 54.86553 22.53892 77.40445 Rays 0 0 .535 55.5 45.5 27.64235 29.36290 57.00525 Red Sox 0 0 .502 51.7 49.3 12.98095 20.08248 33.06343 Blue Jays 0 0 .472 48.0 54.0 4.27143 9.61007 13.88151 Orioles 0 0 .397 39.0 63.0 .23973 .68786 .92760
Average wins by position in AL Central: 59.9 54.2 49.7 45.1 39.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .535 55.7 46.3 44.17656 14.23623 58.41279 Indians 0 0 .520 54.5 47.5 36.06294 14.60327 50.66621 White Sox 0 0 .483 49.7 52.3 13.37466 9.41333 22.78799 Tigers 0 0 .430 45.0 58.0 3.46360 2.92350 6.38710 Royals 0 0 .422 43.4 58.6 2.92224 2.07690 4.99914
Average wins by position in AL west: 61.7 56.2 52.2 47.9 41.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 0 0 .567 58.5 43.5 53.04730 18.93871 71.98602 Athletics 0 0 .507 52.5 48.5 17.69925 20.11340 37.81265 Rangers 0 0 .506 52.7 50.3 15.89630 16.60520 32.50150 Angels 0 0 .501 52.1 51.9 11.36700 15.19341 26.56041 Mariners 0 0 .435 43.9 57.1 1.99015 3.61382 5.60397 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.6 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 89.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 61.8 56.4 52.4 48.3 42.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 0 0 .553 57.8 46.2 42.50809 18.30693 60.81502 Mets 0 0 .523 53.1 49.9 18.53720 17.76003 36.29723 Braves 0 0 .527 52.1 49.9 18.71674 15.94658 34.66333 Phillies 0 0 .517 53.2 50.8 17.60461 15.55988 33.16449 Marlins 0 0 .452 44.9 57.1 2.63336 4.06878 6.70213
Average wins by position in NL Central: 60.3 55.3 51.5 47.7 42.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Reds 0 0 .531 54.3 48.7 29.89083 14.66504 44.55587 Cubs 0 0 .523 53.4 48.6 27.30825 15.47230 42.78055 Brewers 0 0 .525 53.8 49.2 26.89923 14.97075 41.86998 Cardinals 0 0 .480 48.9 53.1 10.67375 8.63478 19.30853 Pirates 0 0 .459 46.8 56.2 5.22793 5.13143 10.35936
Average wins by position in NL West: 63.4 56.4 51.7 46.7 38.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .585 61.5 42.5 63.26255 16.91045 80.17300 Padres 0 0 .522 53.1 48.9 17.64775 22.36358 40.01133 Diamondbacks 0 0 .504 51.6 51.4 11.51500 16.08553 27.60053 Rockies 0 0 .495 50.8 53.2 7.27870 13.40282 20.68151 Giants 0 0 .394 39.7 63.3 .29600 .72112 1.01712 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
