Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu May 28 08:02:24 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.4 84.9 81.6 78.3 73.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           25   22   .523   83.8   78.2   30.41376   14.56831   44.98207
Rays              24   24   .517   80.9   81.1   15.71019   11.26085   26.97104
Blue Jays         22   27   .512   78.6   83.4    8.86812    7.35163   16.21974
Orioles           21   23   .535   82.4   79.6   22.83004   13.25319   36.08324
Red Sox           21   26   .540   82.3   79.7   22.17789   13.14412   35.32201

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.7 85.8 82.0 78.3 73.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            28   18   .520   86.7   75.3   42.46809   20.05602   62.52411
Twins             28   18   .448   77.7   84.3    5.10960    7.37440   12.48400
Tigers            28   20   .514   84.8   77.2   29.25358   21.09201   50.34559
Indians           21   25   .535   81.4   80.6   13.83271   15.11374   28.94645
White Sox         20   24   .522   79.8   82.2    9.33602   11.62058   20.95660

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.6 85.4 81.4 77.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            30   18   .509   86.8   75.2   44.64657   19.03502   63.68159
Mariners          23   23   .541   85.1   76.9   32.68141   19.90101   52.58241
Angels            23   24   .515   80.8   81.2   12.72414   13.31311   26.03725
Rangers           23   24   .473   76.1   85.9    3.49003    4.57322    8.06325
Athletics         17   32   .551   78.4   83.6    6.45785    8.34279   14.80064

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  88.3
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  85.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.8 83.3 75.2 70.0 64.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         28   19   .580   97.6   64.4   95.15126    3.52575   98.67701
Mets              27   21   .471   82.5   79.5    4.54201   32.79663   37.33864
Braves            23   23   .413   72.3   89.7     .18099    2.58176    2.76275
Phillies          19   30   .410   66.6   95.4     .01102     .23197     .24299
Marlins           18   30   .455   71.3   90.7     .11473    1.66451    1.77923

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.2 87.0 81.8 77.1 71.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         31   16   .536   94.1   67.9   78.31176   15.67076   93.98252
Cubs              25   21   .511   85.0   77.0   13.59250   40.58701   54.17951
Pirates           24   22   .496   81.8   80.2    6.07972   26.98707   33.06678
Reds              19   27   .488   76.0   86.0    1.09520    7.82061    8.91581
Brewers           16   32   .516   75.7   86.3     .92083    6.87730    7.79813

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.7 84.8 79.5 74.6 68.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           28   18   .546   92.9   69.1   82.13756   10.21502   92.35258
Giants            28   20   .469   82.9   79.1   11.61876   28.79448   40.41324
Padres            23   25   .474   79.4   82.6    4.73130   15.80428   20.53557
Diamondbacks      21   25   .447   74.0   88.0     .99232    3.99274    4.98506
Rockies           19   26   .444   72.3   89.7     .52006    2.45011    2.97017

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.