Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
Generated Mon Sep 28 07:51:22 EDT 2020
Average wins by position in AL East: 40.0 33.0 32.0 25.0 24.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Playoffs 1-Seed 2-Seed 3-Seed 4-Seed 5-Seed 6-Seed 7-Seed 8-Seed Rays 40 20 .522 40.0 20.0 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 33 27 .538 33.0 27.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 32 28 .493 32.0 28.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 Orioles 25 35 .448 25.0 35.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 24 36 .485 24.0 36.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 36.0 35.0 35.0 26.0 23.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Playoffs 1-Seed 2-Seed 3-Seed 4-Seed 5-Seed 6-Seed 7-Seed 8-Seed Twins 36 24 .520 36.0 24.0 100.00000 .00000 50.08580 49.91420 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Indians 35 25 .524 35.0 25.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 49.89510 .00000 .00000 50.10490 .00000 White Sox 35 25 .502 35.0 25.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 50.10490 .00000 .00000 49.89510 .00000 Royals 26 34 .462 26.0 34.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 23 35 .463 23.0 35.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 36.0 29.0 27.0 26.0 22.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Playoffs 1-Seed 2-Seed 3-Seed 4-Seed 5-Seed 6-Seed 7-Seed 8-Seed Athletics 36 24 .520 36.0 24.0 100.00000 .00000 49.91420 50.08580 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 29 31 .535 29.0 31.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 27 33 .461 27.0 33.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 26 34 .498 26.0 34.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 22 38 .460 22.0 38.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL East: 35.0 31.0 28.0 26.0 26.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Playoffs 1-Seed 2-Seed 3-Seed 4-Seed 5-Seed 6-Seed 7-Seed 8-Seed Braves 35 25 .525 35.0 25.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 31 29 .460 31.0 29.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 28 32 .521 28.0 32.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 26 34 .523 26.0 34.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 26 34 .506 26.0 34.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 34.0 30.0 31.0 29.0 19.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Playoffs 1-Seed 2-Seed 3-Seed 4-Seed 5-Seed 6-Seed 7-Seed 8-Seed Cubs 34 26 .505 34.0 26.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 31 29 .529 31.0 29.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 Cardinals 30 28 .486 30.0 28.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 29 31 .521 29.0 31.0 50.17650 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 50.17650 Pirates 19 41 .460 19.0 41.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 43.0 37.0 29.0 26.0 25.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Playoffs 1-Seed 2-Seed 3-Seed 4-Seed 5-Seed 6-Seed 7-Seed 8-Seed Dodgers 43 17 .550 43.0 17.0 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 37 23 .537 37.0 23.0 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 29 31 .477 29.0 31.0 49.82350 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 49.82350 Rockies 26 34 .472 26.0 34.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 25 35 .496 25.0 35.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
