Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri Aug 18 08:03:17 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.0 86.8 81.6 78.8 75.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           69   51   .548   91.5   70.5   80.54187   17.92656   98.46843
Yankees           65   55   .530   87.0   75.0   18.76761   62.37939   81.14700
Rays              60   63   .498   79.0   83.0     .20588    5.85608    6.06197
Orioles           59   62   .507   79.4   82.6     .31900    7.59436    7.91336
Blue Jays         59   62   .488   78.1   83.9     .16564    3.81882    3.98447

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.5 83.8 80.1 73.2 63.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           66   53   .558   90.3   71.7   91.00499    5.52391   96.52890
Royals            61   59   .499   82.0   80.0    5.26159   20.88738   26.14897
Twins             60   59   .501   81.9   80.1    3.71901   21.90534   25.62435
Tigers            53   67   .480   73.3   88.7     .01441     .09357     .10798
White Sox         45   73   .432   63.8   98.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.1 84.1 81.1 78.2 71.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            74   47   .612   99.1   62.9   99.94585     .05260   99.99845
Angels            62   59   .501   81.7   80.3     .03315   22.56575   22.59890
Mariners          61   61   .527   81.0   81.0     .01045   16.80096   16.81141
Rangers           60   60   .501   80.6   81.4     .01055   14.58334   14.59389
Athletics         53   68   .475   71.1   90.9     .00000     .01193     .01193

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  87.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  84.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.5 79.8 75.8 72.4 63.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         72   47   .513   94.5   67.5   99.89870     .04644   99.94514
Marlins           58   61   .465   78.8   83.2     .09280    2.60981    2.70261
Braves            54   65   .456   74.2   87.8     .00288     .07496     .07785
Mets              53   66   .502   75.0   87.0     .00562     .14396     .14958
Phillies          43   76   .470   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  87.7 84.3 81.4 77.2 69.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              63   57   .541   86.4   75.6   58.94270    8.78876   67.73146
Brewers           63   59   .496   82.5   79.5   14.23910    8.01669   22.25578
Cardinals         62   59   .515   83.9   78.1   25.50913   11.11879   36.62792
Pirates           58   63   .486   77.7   84.3    1.30821     .79952    2.10773
Reds              51   71   .455   69.1   92.9     .00087     .00023     .00110

Average wins by position in NL West:  110.1 90.1 86.1 71.5 66.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           85   34   .569  110.1   51.9   99.99860     .00140  100.00000
Diamondbacks      67   54   .506   88.3   73.7     .00070   85.90305   85.90375
Rockies           67   54   .492   87.8   74.2     .00070   82.49089   82.49159
Padres            54   67   .415   70.9   91.1     .00000     .00548     .00548
Giants            49   74   .452   67.1   94.9     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.