Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Dec 29 18:38:02 EST 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.8 88.5 83.0 77.6 70.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .559 90.6 71.4 46.43950 29.40540 75.84490 Orioles 0 0 .538 87.0 75.0 28.25140 33.20220 61.45360 Red Sox 0 0 .507 81.5 80.5 11.77760 24.99120 36.76880 Rays 0 0 .493 79.6 82.4 8.56840 20.72010 29.28850 Blue Jays 0 0 .479 76.8 85.2 4.96310 14.52540 19.48850
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.6 85.4 79.7 73.1 59.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .527 86.4 75.6 40.52480 20.20750 60.73230 Guardians 0 0 .512 83.9 78.1 28.52200 20.61460 49.13660 Royals 0 0 .491 80.1 81.9 16.07940 16.30460 32.38400 Tigers 0 0 .486 79.5 82.5 14.65960 15.55170 30.21130 White Sox 0 0 .378 60.6 101.4 .21420 .35850 .57270
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.8 88.0 81.5 74.5 66.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .556 90.4 71.6 46.02180 29.62300 75.64480 Astros 0 0 .540 88.1 73.9 33.90790 32.66250 66.57040 Rangers 0 0 .514 83.1 78.9 16.00000 28.08500 44.08500 Angels 0 0 .459 73.6 88.4 2.68270 8.67870 11.36140 Athletics 0 0 .440 70.7 91.3 1.38760 5.06960 6.45720 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.2 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 101.1 92.0 84.1 73.0 58.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 0 0 .600 97.7 64.3 60.29930 30.31410 90.61340 Phillies 0 0 .562 91.3 70.7 26.29690 46.78060 73.07750 Mets 0 0 .537 86.6 75.4 12.51930 40.18980 52.70910 Nationals 0 0 .459 73.7 88.3 .87190 7.28420 8.15610 Marlins 0 0 .375 59.4 102.6 .01260 .18670 .19930
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.9 86.2 80.2 74.2 66.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .562 91.8 70.2 61.86030 14.83430 76.69460 Cardinals 0 0 .507 82.2 79.8 16.61130 18.00530 34.61660 Brewers 0 0 .505 81.6 80.4 15.03540 17.03170 32.06710 Pirates 0 0 .455 73.5 88.5 3.30590 5.32010 8.62600 Reds 0 0 .455 73.2 88.8 3.18710 5.12330 8.31040
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.6 91.7 83.0 74.4 55.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .617 100.5 61.5 72.70600 22.02610 94.73210 Diamondbacks 0 0 .562 91.1 70.9 21.33910 50.71280 72.05190 Giants 0 0 .501 80.9 81.1 3.59140 23.83610 27.42750 Padres 0 0 .491 78.9 83.1 2.36110 18.30350 20.66460 Rockies 0 0 .354 55.7 106.3 .00240 .05140 .05380 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 95.6 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.9 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 87.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
