Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri Aug 1 07:27:44 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.6 86.1 83.1 80.2 76.2
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           60   47   .510   87.1   74.9   44.56202   22.73990   67.30192
Blue Jays         60   50   .535   86.8   75.2   40.74019   23.98748   64.72767
Yankees           55   52   .509   81.5   80.5    6.24067    9.10926   15.34993
Rays              53   55   .562   82.1   79.9    7.80084   11.04696   18.84779
Red Sox           48   60   .565   77.5   84.5     .65629    1.61114    2.26742

Average wins by position in AL Central:  88.7 83.4 80.3 77.4 73.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            58   47   .531   88.0   74.0   78.62558    4.11075   82.73633
Royals            55   52   .501   81.9   80.1   12.33423    7.92219   20.25641
Indians           53   55   .494   79.8   82.2    5.23528    3.50643    8.74171
White Sox         53   56   .495   78.9   83.1    3.39835    2.40103    5.79938
Twins             48   59   .486   74.4   87.6     .40657     .14582     .55239

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.2 90.8 82.4 71.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         66   41   .554   96.6   65.4   81.19848   18.51470   99.71318
Angels            64   43   .521   91.3   70.7   18.52733   75.18484   93.71217
Mariners          56   52   .512   82.5   79.5     .27418   19.71498   19.98916
Astros            44   65   .490   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00197     .00197
Rangers           43   65   .499   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00257     .00257

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  89.8 84.3 80.0 76.5 71.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         58   48   .532   89.1   72.9   77.36275   11.83794   89.20068
Braves            58   51   .490   84.2   77.8   19.02658   28.63396   47.66054
Marlins           53   55   .475   78.8   83.2    2.01228    5.69135    7.70363
Mets              52   56   .469   77.9   84.1    1.56959    3.40345    4.97303
Phillies          48   61   .449   71.9   90.1     .02881     .08201     .11083

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.8 86.2 83.1 78.9 69.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           60   49   .513   87.6   74.4   49.36588   29.97322   79.33910
Cardinals         57   50   .514   86.0   76.0   31.10229   34.90932   66.01161
Pirates           57   51   .502   84.4   77.6   16.88516   32.23234   49.11750
Reds              54   54   .476   79.9   82.1    2.64448    9.64166   12.28613
Cubs              45   62   .452   69.6   92.4     .00220     .01718     .01938

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.3 84.0 76.3 72.8 69.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           62   47   .528   91.0   71.0   88.57382    7.75160   96.32541
Giants            58   50   .484   84.2   77.8   11.33707   35.23888   46.57594
Padres            48   60   .456   72.8   89.2     .03377     .17883     .21260
Diamondbacks      48   61   .484   74.0   88.0     .04598     .35453     .40051
Rockies           44   64   .497   71.5   90.5     .00937     .05374     .06311

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  87.4
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.