Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Oct 1 07:27:09 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.0 84.0 83.0 77.0 71.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           96   66   .502   96.0   66.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Yankees           84   78   .486   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         83   79   .509   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rays              77   85   .522   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Red Sox           71   91   .522   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.0 89.0 85.0 73.0 70.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            90   72   .540   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Royals            89   73   .498   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Indians           85   77   .493   85.0   77.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         73   89   .504   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             70   92   .478   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.0 88.0 87.0 70.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            98   64   .516   98.0   64.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Athletics         88   74   .548   88.0   74.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Mariners          87   75   .518   87.0   75.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Astros            70   92   .490   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           67   95   .467   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.0 79.0 79.0 77.0 73.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         96   66   .547   96.0   66.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Braves            79   83   .499   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              79   83   .475   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Marlins           77   85   .489   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          73   89   .447   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.0 88.0 82.0 76.0 73.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         90   72   .522   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Pirates           88   74   .506   88.0   74.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Brewers           82   80   .523   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              76   86   .483   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Cubs              73   89   .477   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.0 88.0 77.0 66.0 64.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           94   68   .526   94.0   68.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Giants            88   74   .496   88.0   74.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Padres            77   85   .464   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           66   96   .504   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      64   98   .451   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.