Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Sep 27 08:01:06 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.0 89.5 87.4 83.1 67.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           92   64   .524   95.0   67.0   99.82790     .17210  100.00000
Blue Jays         86   70   .562   89.2   72.8     .17210   93.63462   93.80672
Orioles           85   71   .517   87.7   74.3     .00000   67.08002   67.08002
Yankees           80   76   .499   83.1   78.9     .00000     .16684     .16684
Rays              65   91   .507   67.8   94.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.0 86.2 82.1 78.2 58.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           91   65   .540   94.0   68.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Tigers            83   73   .515   86.2   75.8     .00000   18.91192   18.91192
Royals            79   77   .493   82.1   79.9     .00000     .00071     .00071
White Sox         75   81   .499   78.2   83.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             56  100   .503   58.8  103.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  94.9 86.4 84.5 72.6 69.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           92   65   .512   94.9   67.1  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mariners          83   73   .549   86.2   75.8     .00000   18.37072   18.37072
Astros            82   75   .564   84.7   77.3     .00000    1.66308    1.66308
Angels            70   87   .506   72.5   89.5     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         67   89   .504   69.6   92.4     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.5 85.7 80.3 72.7 65.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         91   65   .517   94.5   67.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mets              83   74   .525   85.7   76.3     .00000   84.16693   84.16692
Marlins           78   78   .496   80.3   80.7     .00000     .08380     .08380
Phillies          70   86   .418   72.7   89.3     .00000     .00000     .00000
Braves            63   92   .409   65.9   95.1     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.2 84.4 79.9 73.1 68.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs             100   56   .544  103.2   58.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Cardinals         81   75   .496   84.4   77.6     .00000   40.47811   40.47811
Pirates           77   79   .509   79.9   82.1     .00000     .03976     .03976
Brewers           71   86   .440   73.1   88.9     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              66   90   .426   68.4   93.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.2 85.3 75.8 69.2 67.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           90   66   .554   93.2   68.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Giants            82   74   .515   85.3   76.7     .00000   75.23141   75.23141
Rockies           73   83   .443   75.8   86.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            66   90   .449   68.7   93.3     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      65   91   .458   67.9   94.1     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  86.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.2

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.