Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Mar 24 23:46:51 EDT 2020


Average wins by position in AL East:  62.5 56.3 51.3 46.0 37.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees            0    0   .572   59.7   42.3   54.86553   22.53892   77.40445
Rays               0    0   .535   55.5   45.5   27.64235   29.36290   57.00525
Red Sox            0    0   .502   51.7   49.3   12.98095   20.08248   33.06343
Blue Jays          0    0   .472   48.0   54.0    4.27143    9.61007   13.88151
Orioles            0    0   .397   39.0   63.0     .23973     .68786     .92760

Average wins by position in AL Central:  59.9 54.2 49.7 45.1 39.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins              0    0   .535   55.7   46.3   44.17656   14.23623   58.41279
Indians            0    0   .520   54.5   47.5   36.06294   14.60327   50.66621
White Sox          0    0   .483   49.7   52.3   13.37466    9.41333   22.78799
Tigers             0    0   .430   45.0   58.0    3.46360    2.92350    6.38710
Royals             0    0   .422   43.4   58.6    2.92224    2.07690    4.99914

Average wins by position in AL west:  61.7 56.2 52.2 47.9 41.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros             0    0   .567   58.5   43.5   53.04730   18.93871   71.98602
Athletics          0    0   .507   52.5   48.5   17.69925   20.11340   37.81265
Rangers            0    0   .506   52.7   50.3   15.89630   16.60520   32.50150
Angels             0    0   .501   52.1   51.9   11.36700   15.19341   26.56041
Mariners           0    0   .435   43.9   57.1    1.99015    3.61382    5.60397

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  93.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  61.8 56.4 52.4 48.3 42.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals          0    0   .553   57.8   46.2   42.50809   18.30693   60.81502
Mets               0    0   .523   53.1   49.9   18.53720   17.76003   36.29723
Braves             0    0   .527   52.1   49.9   18.71674   15.94658   34.66333
Phillies           0    0   .517   53.2   50.8   17.60461   15.55988   33.16449
Marlins            0    0   .452   44.9   57.1    2.63336    4.06878    6.70213

Average wins by position in NL Central:  60.3 55.3 51.5 47.7 42.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Reds               0    0   .531   54.3   48.7   29.89083   14.66504   44.55587
Cubs               0    0   .523   53.4   48.6   27.30825   15.47230   42.78055
Brewers            0    0   .525   53.8   49.2   26.89923   14.97075   41.86998
Cardinals          0    0   .480   48.9   53.1   10.67375    8.63478   19.30853
Pirates            0    0   .459   46.8   56.2    5.22793    5.13143   10.35936

Average wins by position in NL West:  63.4 56.4 51.7 46.7 38.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .585   61.5   42.5   63.26255   16.91045   80.17300
Padres             0    0   .522   53.1   48.9   17.64775   22.36358   40.01133
Diamondbacks       0    0   .504   51.6   51.4   11.51500   16.08553   27.60053
Rockies            0    0   .495   50.8   53.2    7.27870   13.40282   20.68151
Giants             0    0   .394   39.7   63.3     .29600     .72112    1.01712

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  92.9
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.