Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Aug 27 08:01:30 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  90.9 86.8 81.9 78.7 75.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays         71   55   .531   90.0   72.0   69.79033   27.62086   97.41119
Yankees           69   57   .518   87.4   74.6   28.95056   59.64360   88.59416
Orioles           63   63   .515   80.7   81.3     .94409   14.41613   15.36022
Rays              62   64   .487   79.2   82.8     .29838    6.42875    6.72712
Red Sox           58   69   .518   76.0   86.0     .01665     .65416     .67081

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.7 83.1 79.9 77.6 74.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            77   49   .523   95.7   66.3   99.81683     .17017   99.98700
Twins             65   61   .487   82.0   80.0     .16532   27.19611   27.36143
Indians           60   66   .512   78.4   83.6     .00958    4.33799    4.34757
Tigers            60   66   .489   77.3   84.7     .00308    2.12666    2.12974
White Sox         59   66   .507   77.8   84.2     .00518    2.96152    2.96670

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.2 83.8 80.4 75.6 71.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            71   57   .561   90.1   71.9   92.37008    5.30800   97.67808
Rangers           64   61   .497   82.2   79.8    4.42158   26.16830   30.58988
Angels            64   62   .512   81.8   80.2    3.17862   22.53176   25.71038
Mariners          59   68   .483   75.4   86.6     .02926     .42776     .45702
Athletics         55   73   .502   71.7   90.3     .00046     .00824     .00869

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  87.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  84.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  89.5 85.0 71.2 67.6 63.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets              70   56   .498   88.8   73.2   74.70510     .76972   75.47482
Nationals         63   62   .579   85.7   76.3   25.29460    1.40007   26.69468
Braves            54   73   .447   70.0   92.0     .00030     .00000     .00030
Marlins           51   76   .490   68.4   93.6     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          50   77   .381   63.4   98.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  101.1 96.1 92.1 70.4 66.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         81   45   .548  100.8   61.2   83.85190   16.14150   99.99340
Pirates           76   49   .528   95.5   66.5   12.51965   86.79662   99.31627
Cubs              73   52   .536   93.1   68.9    3.62845   92.54307   96.17152
Brewers           53   74   .461   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              52   73   .448   68.1   93.9     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.7 85.0 80.6 77.2 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           69   56   .562   90.4   71.6   86.80344     .57291   87.37635
Giants            67   59   .487   84.9   77.1   12.22396    1.70070   13.92466
Padres            62   64   .466   79.5   82.5     .58856     .03928     .62784
Diamondbacks      62   64   .471   78.8   83.2     .38404     .03613     .42017
Rockies           51   74   .460   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  96.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  92.2

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.