Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Jul 14 07:53:19 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.7 88.0 82.8 78.9 74.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rays 56 38 .501 89.1 72.9 36.29710 58.21020 94.50730 Yankees 54 42 .562 91.0 71.0 60.07300 38.00280 98.07580 Red Sox 46 48 .530 81.6 80.4 2.73000 44.39310 47.12310 Orioles 46 51 .513 78.2 83.8 .53260 18.19690 18.72950 Blue Jays 45 51 .503 77.4 84.6 .36730 14.39440 14.76170
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.5 81.8 78.9 75.6 69.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 51 46 .485 83.2 78.8 49.24050 16.20480 65.44530 White Sox 50 45 .469 81.0 81.0 26.42050 17.44540 43.86590 Twins 48 49 .473 78.2 83.8 10.22590 9.97760 20.20350 Tigers 44 52 .529 79.0 83.0 13.97740 12.35670 26.33410 Royals 38 59 .482 69.6 92.4 .13570 .17840 .31410
Average wins by position in AL west: 86.6 82.5 78.9 73.4 66.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 49 47 .504 82.0 80.0 26.74820 25.30310 52.05130 Mariners 48 49 .572 84.6 77.4 55.37200 20.66250 76.03450 Astros 47 51 .527 80.7 81.3 16.80470 22.23710 39.04180 Athletics 41 55 .501 73.7 88.3 1.06110 2.40370 3.46480 Angels 38 59 .459 67.0 95.0 .01400 .03330 .04730 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 88.3 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 84.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 82.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.0 87.4 82.2 77.5 72.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 55 40 .524 90.0 72.0 55.08480 36.61610 91.70090 Phillies 54 43 .544 88.8 73.2 40.81640 46.31970 87.13610 Marlins 52 45 .469 81.8 80.2 3.62180 25.08460 28.70640 Nationals 48 49 .452 77.3 84.7 .43630 5.40300 5.83930 Mets 40 57 .533 73.7 88.3 .04070 .83580 .87650
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.5 88.2 84.0 80.2 73.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 59 37 .572 96.3 65.7 91.40930 8.26230 99.67160 Cubs 54 42 .508 86.8 75.2 6.43220 67.90460 74.33680 Cardinals 50 45 .488 82.0 80.0 .72070 30.55930 31.28000 Pirates 50 47 .526 83.2 78.8 1.43150 40.68250 42.11400 Reds 43 52 .480 74.1 87.9 .00630 1.35310 1.35940
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.1 82.9 77.6 73.2 65.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 61 36 .611 100.1 61.9 99.83860 .14910 99.98770 Diamondbacks 49 47 .495 82.0 80.0 .15420 30.55130 30.70550 Padres 48 48 .444 77.0 85.0 .00600 4.96100 4.96700 Giants 41 55 .514 74.5 87.5 .00120 1.31460 1.31580 Rockies 39 59 .424 66.2 95.8 .00000 .00300 .00300 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.7 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
