Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Sun Sep 24 08:04:04 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.3 90.5 79.5 76.9 74.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 90 64 .548 94.3 67.7 96.74470 3.25530 100.00000 Yankees 86 68 .530 90.5 71.5 3.25530 96.74470 100.00000 Rays 76 79 .498 79.3 82.7 .00000 .25516 .25516 Orioles 74 82 .507 76.9 85.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 72 83 .488 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 101.3 84.4 80.2 66.0 64.5 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 97 58 .558 101.3 60.7 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Twins 81 74 .501 84.4 77.6 .00000 96.05036 96.05035 Royals 76 78 .499 80.2 81.8 .00000 1.47112 1.47111 White Sox 62 92 .432 65.4 96.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 62 93 .480 65.2 96.8 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.5 80.9 79.6 78.1 74.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 95 59 .612 99.5 62.5 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rangers 76 78 .501 80.0 82.0 .00000 1.10826 1.10826 Angels 76 78 .501 80.0 82.0 .00000 1.07419 1.07419 Mariners 75 80 .527 78.5 83.5 .00000 .04092 .04092 Athletics 71 83 .475 74.7 87.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 84.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.2 77.1 73.9 70.3 64.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 93 61 .513 97.2 64.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Marlins 73 81 .465 76.9 85.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 70 83 .456 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 66 88 .502 70.3 91.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 61 94 .470 64.5 97.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.3 86.3 84.5 73.3 68.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 86 68 .541 90.3 71.7 97.27915 1.86828 99.14742 Brewers 82 73 .496 85.6 76.4 .94625 23.30187 24.24812 Cardinals 81 73 .515 85.2 76.8 1.77460 17.59810 19.37270 Pirates 70 85 .486 73.3 88.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 66 89 .455 68.8 93.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.3 92.8 86.6 72.7 64.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 98 57 .569 102.3 59.7 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 89 66 .506 92.8 69.2 .00000 99.99988 99.99988 Rockies 83 72 .492 86.6 75.4 .00000 57.23187 57.23187 Padres 70 85 .415 72.7 89.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 61 94 .452 64.3 97.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.8 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
