Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Jul 5 08:51:49 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  88.7 85.0 82.3 79.7 76.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           44   37   .514   85.0   77.0   36.95550   19.14856   56.10406
Orioles           42   39   .512   82.3   79.7   17.43073   16.91420   34.34493
Blue Jays         42   41   .532   83.7   78.3   26.59659   19.40357   46.00016
Rays              42   41   .500   80.5   81.5    9.64422   11.73119   21.37541
Red Sox           38   45   .538   80.3   81.7    9.37296   11.28447   20.65743

Average wins by position in AL Central:  88.9 84.6 81.6 78.5 74.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            45   33   .503   86.6   75.4   52.57840   16.70904   69.28744
Twins             43   38   .495   82.4   79.6   17.92616   17.61348   35.53964
Tigers            41   39   .512   82.2   79.8   18.09558   16.57862   34.67419
Indians           38   42   .510   79.4   82.6    7.52881    9.27431   16.80312
White Sox         36   42   .499   77.5   84.5    3.87106    5.28133    9.15239

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.8 84.4 80.6 77.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            48   35   .536   90.1   71.9   78.80232   10.73596   89.53828
Angels            43   38   .496   82.2   79.8   11.28045   21.99293   33.27338
Rangers           41   41   .490   80.4   81.6    6.86527   14.12012   20.98539
Athletics         38   46   .510   77.2   84.8    1.78088    5.10678    6.88766
Mariners          37   44   .490   76.3   85.7    1.27109    4.10544    5.37653

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  87.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  85.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.6 82.5 77.7 72.6 59.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         45   36   .554   91.3   70.7   90.10573    3.67143   93.77717
Mets              41   41   .493   80.9   81.1    7.20313   13.36923   20.57237
Braves            40   41   .456   77.8   84.2    2.09220    5.59840    7.69060
Marlins           35   47   .478   74.3   87.7     .59863    1.19147    1.79010
Phillies          27   56   .412   59.8  102.2     .00030     .00000     .00030

Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.6 89.9 84.8 77.0 71.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         52   28   .525   95.7   66.3   77.34983   21.11403   98.46386
Pirates           46   34   .522   88.7   73.3   15.19632   65.50600   80.70232
Cubs              43   36   .509   86.5   75.5    7.37665   58.26582   65.64247
Reds              36   43   .474   74.9   87.1     .05416    2.48339    2.53755
Brewers           35   48   .490   74.1   87.9     .02304    1.56368    1.58672

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.2 82.9 79.0 75.6 71.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           46   36   .549   90.9   71.1   89.23514    3.82259   93.05773
Giants            42   40   .475   80.2   81.8    5.64718   11.87248   17.51966
Diamondbacks      40   41   .477   78.9   83.1    3.57335    7.71723   11.29058
Padres            39   44   .454   76.0   86.0    1.06305    2.48900    3.55205
Rockies           34   47   .486   74.0   88.0     .48128    1.33525    1.81654

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.