Postseason Odds, Forecast version
<p>

<i>Playing the rest of the season a million times</i><p>
<i>with some help from my forecasts</i><p>

<i>by Clay Davenport</i>
<p>
See the <a href=http://www.claydavenport.com/stats/ps_odds.html>original version</a> of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

<p> *** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league *** <p>
<p> 


Generated Tue Jul 1 07:53:12 AM EDT 2025
<hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL East:  92.6 87.1 83.1 78.7 73.7
<a href=aleastpec.png>AL East</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Yankeespsoddspec.txt>Yankees</a>           48   36   .556   91.5   70.5   70.91850   24.77370   95.69220
<a href=Devilpsoddspec.txt>Rays</a>              47   38   .510   85.8   76.2   16.71580   54.96110   71.67690
<a href=Bluepsoddspec.txt>Blue Jays</a>         46   38   .488   84.3   77.7   11.06370   48.61910   59.68280
<a href=RedSoxpsoddspec.txt>Red Sox</a>           42   44   .485   78.5   83.5    1.05800   14.01330   15.07130
<a href=Oriolespsoddspec.txt>Orioles</a>           37   47   .494   75.3   86.7     .24400    4.75480    4.99880
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.4 83.7 79.3 74.8 58.1
<a href=alcentpec.png>AL Central</a>        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Tigerspsoddspec.txt>Tigers</a>            53   32   .515   93.2   68.8   93.44690    4.86120   98.30810
<a href=Guardianspsoddspec.txt>Guardians</a>         40   42   .481   79.6   82.4    2.22560   20.25530   22.48090
<a href=Twinspsoddspec.txt>Twins</a>             40   44   .515   81.3   80.7    3.75170   30.32570   34.07740
<a href=Royalspsoddspec.txt>Royals</a>            39   46   .486   77.0   85.0     .57580    8.91510    9.49090
<a href=Whitepsoddspec.txt>White Sox</a>         28   56   .393   58.1  103.9     .00000     .00010     .00010
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL west:  92.3 85.6 79.5 74.9 69.6
<a href=alwestpec.png>AL West</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Astrospsoddspec.txt>Astros</a>            50   34   .525   91.4   70.6   77.95760   17.98700   95.94460
<a href=Marinerspsoddspec.txt>Mariners</a>          44   40   .531   85.8   76.2   20.14440   52.42870   72.57310
<a href=Angelspsoddspec.txt>Angels</a>            41   42   .444   75.7   86.3     .50950    5.45350    5.96300
<a href=Rangerspsoddspec.txt>Rangers</a>           41   44   .483   78.1   83.9    1.36030   12.11740   13.47770
<a href=Athleticspsoddspec.txt>Athletics</a>         35   52   .476   70.9   91.1     .02820     .53400     .56220

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  88.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.0
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  84.0
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL East:  94.6 88.6 82.2 73.0 67.4
<a href=nleastpec.png>NL East</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Philliespsoddspec.txt>Phillies</a>          50   35   .563   93.6   68.4   73.07410   22.23230   95.30640
<a href=Metspsoddspec.txt>Mets</a>              48   37   .532   88.9   73.1   24.03920   51.97770   76.01690
<a href=Bravespsoddspec.txt>Braves</a>            38   45   .560   82.7   79.3    2.87480   22.65540   25.53020
<a href=Marlinspsoddspec.txt>Marlins</a>           37   45   .409   69.1   92.9     .00210     .05010     .05220
<a href=Nationalspsoddspec.txt>Nationals</a>         35   49   .472   71.5   90.5     .00980     .20070     .21050
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.5 88.4 84.5 79.9 71.1
<a href=nlcentpec.png>NL Central</a>        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Cubspsoddspec.txt>Cubs</a>              49   35   .566   93.7   68.3   77.16440   17.98830   95.15270
<a href=Brewerspsoddspec.txt>Brewers</a>           47   37   .514   86.0   76.0   10.56200   41.87980   52.44180
<a href=Cardinalspsoddspec.txt>Cardinals</a>         47   39   .512   86.0   76.0   10.51890   42.20540   52.72430
<a href=Redspsoddspec.txt>Reds</a>              44   41   .496   81.3   80.7    1.74820   15.50770   17.25590
<a href=Piratespsoddspec.txt>Pirates</a>           36   50   .467   71.3   90.7     .00650     .15340     .15990
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL West:  101.5 87.3 83.0 78.8 48.6
<a href=nlwestpec.png>NL West</a>           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
<a href=Dodgerspsoddspec.txt>Dodgers</a>           53   32   .622  101.5   60.5   98.98550     .94730   99.93280
<a href=Padrespsoddspec.txt>Padres</a>            45   39   .483   82.7   79.3     .25770   25.68970   25.94740
<a href=Giantspsoddspec.txt>Giants</a>            45   40   .499   82.3   79.7     .25660   22.46740   22.72400
<a href=Diamondbackspsoddspec.txt>Diamondbacks</a>      42   42   .535   84.1   77.9     .50020   36.04480   36.54500
<a href=Rockiespsoddspec.txt>Rockies</a>           19   65   .381   48.6  113.4     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.4
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  86.6
</pre>
<hr size=2>

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the <a
href=http://claydavenport.com/stats/standings.html>Adjusted
Standings Report</a>. <p>

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections
of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on
a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are
averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost
record.

The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based
on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can
immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. 

However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal
distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the
normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while
the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the <a
href=http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm>log5 method</a>.<p>


<b>W</b> and <b>L</b> are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.<p>

<b>Pct3</b> is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
regression-to-mean component.<p>

<b>Avg W</b> and <b>Avg L</b> are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.<p>

<b>Champions</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!<p>

<b>Wild Card</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As
with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
<p>

<b>Playoffs</b> is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.<p>