Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

Generated Mon Sep 28 07:51:22 EDT 2020


Average wins by position in AL East:  40.0 33.0 32.0 25.0 24.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L   Playoffs     1-Seed     2-Seed     3-Seed     4-Seed     5-Seed     6-Seed     7-Seed     8-Seed
Rays              40   20   .522   40.0   20.0  100.00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Yankees           33   27   .538   33.0   27.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         32   28   .493   32.0   28.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000
Orioles           25   35   .448   25.0   35.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Red Sox           24   36   .485   24.0   36.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  36.0 35.0 35.0 26.0 23.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L   Playoffs     1-Seed     2-Seed     3-Seed     4-Seed     5-Seed     6-Seed     7-Seed     8-Seed
Twins             36   24   .520   36.0   24.0  100.00000     .00000   50.08580   49.91420     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Indians           35   25   .524   35.0   25.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000   49.89510     .00000     .00000   50.10490     .00000
White Sox         35   25   .502   35.0   25.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000   50.10490     .00000     .00000   49.89510     .00000
Royals            26   34   .462   26.0   34.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            23   35   .463   23.0   35.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  36.0 29.0 27.0 26.0 22.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L   Playoffs     1-Seed     2-Seed     3-Seed     4-Seed     5-Seed     6-Seed     7-Seed     8-Seed
Athletics         36   24   .520   36.0   24.0  100.00000     .00000   49.91420   50.08580     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Astros            29   31   .535   29.0   31.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000
Mariners          27   33   .461   27.0   33.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Angels            26   34   .498   26.0   34.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           22   38   .460   22.0   38.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000


Average wins by position in NL East:  35.0 31.0 28.0 26.0 26.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L   Playoffs     1-Seed     2-Seed     3-Seed     4-Seed     5-Seed     6-Seed     7-Seed     8-Seed
Braves            35   25   .525   35.0   25.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Marlins           31   29   .460   31.0   29.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          28   32   .521   28.0   32.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              26   34   .523   26.0   34.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Nationals         26   34   .506   26.0   34.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  34.0 30.0 31.0 29.0 19.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L   Playoffs     1-Seed     2-Seed     3-Seed     4-Seed     5-Seed     6-Seed     7-Seed     8-Seed
Cubs              34   26   .505   34.0   26.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              31   29   .529   31.0   29.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000
Cardinals         30   28   .486   30.0   28.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Brewers           29   31   .521   29.0   31.0   50.17650     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000   50.17650
Pirates           19   41   .460   19.0   41.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  43.0 37.0 29.0 26.0 25.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L   Playoffs     1-Seed     2-Seed     3-Seed     4-Seed     5-Seed     6-Seed     7-Seed     8-Seed
Dodgers           43   17   .550   43.0   17.0  100.00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            37   23   .537   37.0   23.0  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000  100.00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Giants            29   31   .477   29.0   31.0   49.82350     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000   49.82350
Rockies           26   34   .472   26.0   34.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      25   35   .496   25.0   35.0     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000     .00000


As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.