Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Sep 18 08:05:19 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 109.5 98.1 89.2 73.9 47.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 103 47 .581 109.5 52.5 99.99890 .00110 100.00000 Yankees 91 58 .567 98.1 63.9 .00110 99.90397 99.90507 Rays 83 66 .488 89.2 72.8 .00000 .46843 .46843 Blue Jays 68 82 .485 73.9 88.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 43 107 .415 47.3 114.7 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.1 75.9 66.7 63.7 57.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 83 66 .593 91.1 70.9 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Twins 69 81 .522 75.9 86.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 61 89 .444 66.5 95.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 59 90 .431 63.8 98.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 52 98 .430 57.0 105.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 101.2 95.8 89.1 79.9 69.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 94 56 .577 101.2 60.8 98.33795 1.66205 100.00000 Athletics 90 60 .502 95.9 66.1 1.66205 97.39057 99.05262 Mariners 83 67 .514 89.1 72.9 .00000 .57388 .57388 Angels 74 76 .510 79.9 82.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 64 86 .502 69.8 92.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 98.3 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 95.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 89.3 83.3 81.4 75.8 63.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 83 67 .517 89.3 72.7 98.71982 .03170 98.75152 Phillies 76 73 .492 82.2 79.8 1.13377 .12400 1.25776 Nationals 76 75 .548 82.6 79.4 .14642 .12054 .26696 Mets 70 80 .479 75.8 86.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 59 91 .404 63.5 97.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.9 91.9 88.3 80.8 69.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 88 62 .539 94.8 67.2 88.19200 11.78859 99.98059 Brewers 86 65 .512 91.9 70.1 11.20070 87.39111 98.59180 Cardinals 83 68 .507 88.4 73.6 .60730 64.46032 65.06761 Pirates 75 74 .484 80.8 80.2 .00000 .01040 .01040 Reds 64 87 .451 69.5 92.5 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 89.9 87.6 83.4 76.7 64.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 83 68 .573 89.5 72.5 72.06972 12.14504 84.21476 Rockies 82 68 .508 88.0 74.0 27.51062 23.28967 50.80029 Diamondbacks 78 73 .488 83.5 78.5 .41967 .63864 1.05831 Giants 71 80 .501 76.7 85.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 60 91 .420 64.4 97.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
