Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Sep 24 08:04:04 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.3 90.5 79.5 76.9 74.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           90   64   .548   94.3   67.7   96.74470    3.25530  100.00000
Yankees           86   68   .530   90.5   71.5    3.25530   96.74470  100.00000
Rays              76   79   .498   79.3   82.7     .00000     .25516     .25516
Orioles           74   82   .507   76.9   85.1     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         72   83   .488   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  101.3 84.4 80.2 66.0 64.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           97   58   .558  101.3   60.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Twins             81   74   .501   84.4   77.6     .00000   96.05036   96.05035
Royals            76   78   .499   80.2   81.8     .00000    1.47112    1.47111
White Sox         62   92   .432   65.4   96.6     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            62   93   .480   65.2   96.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.5 80.9 79.6 78.1 74.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            95   59   .612   99.5   62.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rangers           76   78   .501   80.0   82.0     .00000    1.10826    1.10826
Angels            76   78   .501   80.0   82.0     .00000    1.07419    1.07419
Mariners          75   80   .527   78.5   83.5     .00000     .04092     .04092
Athletics         71   83   .475   74.7   87.3     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  84.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.2 77.1 73.9 70.3 64.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         93   61   .513   97.2   64.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Marlins           73   81   .465   76.9   85.1     .00000     .00000     .00000
Braves            70   83   .456   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              66   88   .502   70.3   91.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          61   94   .470   64.5   97.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.3 86.3 84.5 73.3 68.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              86   68   .541   90.3   71.7   97.27915    1.86828   99.14742
Brewers           82   73   .496   85.6   76.4     .94625   23.30187   24.24812
Cardinals         81   73   .515   85.2   76.8    1.77460   17.59810   19.37270
Pirates           70   85   .486   73.3   88.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              66   89   .455   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  102.3 92.8 86.6 72.7 64.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           98   57   .569  102.3   59.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Diamondbacks      89   66   .506   92.8   69.2     .00000   99.99988   99.99988
Rockies           83   72   .492   86.6   75.4     .00000   57.23187   57.23187
Padres            70   85   .415   72.7   89.3     .00000     .00000     .00000
Giants            61   94   .452   64.3   97.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  92.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.