Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Sep 20 07:27:17 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.3 83.7 81.4 77.9 71.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           92   61   .502   96.3   65.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Yankees           79   74   .486   83.4   78.6     .00000     .56924     .56924
Blue Jays         77   76   .509   81.7   80.3     .00000     .05012     .05012
Rays              74   80   .522   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Red Sox           67   87   .522   71.3   90.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.3 87.6 83.5 74.4 70.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            85   68   .540   90.1   71.9   83.22663   12.61786   95.84449
Royals            83   69   .498   87.8   74.2   16.72768   43.86196   60.58964
Indians           79   74   .493   83.5   78.5     .04568    1.32507    1.37075
White Sox         70   83   .504   74.3   87.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             66   87   .478   70.3   91.7     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.8 89.4 87.2 70.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            95   59   .516   98.8   63.2  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Athletics         84   69   .548   89.2   72.8     .00000   89.27471   89.27471
Mariners          83   70   .518   87.5   74.5     .00000   52.30105   52.30105
Astros            67   87   .490   70.9   91.1     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           61   92   .467   65.2   96.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.3 81.0 78.7 77.1 73.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         89   64   .547   94.3   67.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Braves            76   77   .499   80.8   81.2     .00000     .22270     .22270
Marlins           74   79   .489   78.3   83.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              74   80   .475   77.6   84.4     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          70   84   .447   73.4   88.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.3 87.3 83.2 74.9 71.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         86   68   .522   90.3   71.7   91.36435    8.62943   99.99377
Pirates           83   70   .506   87.4   74.6    8.62755   87.58458   96.21213
Brewers           79   75   .523   83.2   78.8     .00810    3.90726    3.91536
Reds              71   83   .483   74.9   87.1     .00000     .00000     .00000
Cubs              68   86   .477   71.7   90.3     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.5 88.5 76.2 67.3 65.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           88   66   .526   92.4   69.6   94.10700    5.89300  100.00000
Giants            84   69   .496   88.6   73.4    5.89300   93.76303   99.65603
Padres            72   81   .464   76.2   85.8     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           63   91   .504   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      62   92   .451   65.5   96.5     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.8
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.