Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Aug 28 08:01:20 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.0 88.9 86.1 82.3 70.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays         73   56   .562   90.9   71.1   61.06570   27.76228   88.82797
Red Sox           72   57   .524   88.7   73.3   27.00177   42.61275   69.61452
Orioles           70   59   .517   86.6   75.4   10.43777   31.01636   41.45412
Yankees           67   61   .499   83.1   78.9    1.49477    7.54749    9.04226
Rays              54   74   .507   70.1   91.9     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.5 86.5 82.9 78.3 65.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           73   55   .540   91.2   70.8   84.41778    7.51539   91.93317
Tigers            69   60   .515   86.1   75.9   12.79371   22.73099   35.52469
Royals            67   62   .493   83.2   78.8    2.65436    6.32727    8.98163
White Sox         62   66   .499   78.8   83.2     .13416     .27571     .40987
Twins             49   80   .503   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.2 87.2 83.8 73.1 69.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           76   54   .512   91.9   70.1   85.95007    8.91323   94.86330
Astros            68   61   .564   85.9   76.1    7.78377   24.96305   32.74682
Mariners          68   61   .549   85.4   76.6    6.26617   20.33545   26.60162
Athletics         56   73   .504   71.7   90.3     .00000     .00003     .00002
Angels            55   74   .506   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.4 86.2 82.6 73.2 61.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         75   54   .517   93.3   68.7   95.79029    3.26026   99.05055
Marlins           67   62   .496   84.0   78.0    1.67649   23.02288   24.69937
Mets              66   63   .525   84.8   77.2    2.53319   30.88881   33.42200
Phillies          59   70   .418   73.2   88.8     .00003     .00734     .00737
Braves            48   82   .409   61.6  100.4     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  101.0 86.9 83.3 71.8 68.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              82   46   .544  101.0   61.0   99.96117     .03881   99.99998
Cardinals         68   60   .496   85.4   76.6     .02322   42.66434   42.68756
Pirates           66   61   .509   84.8   77.2     .01562   33.66944   33.68506
Brewers           56   73   .440   70.5   91.5     .00000     .00006     .00006
Reds              55   73   .426   69.4   92.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.5 86.9 76.3 70.6 67.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           72   57   .554   90.9   71.1   77.95655   17.48464   95.44118
Giants            70   59   .515   87.5   74.5   22.03475   48.87757   70.91232
Rockies           61   68   .443   76.1   85.9     .00870     .08586     .09455
Padres            54   75   .449   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      54   76   .458   68.7   93.3     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.7
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.