Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Sep 30 07:54:54 EDT 2019
Average wins by position in AL East: 103.0 96.0 84.0 67.0 54.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 103 59 .560 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rays 96 66 .544 96.0 66.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Red Sox 84 78 .548 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 67 95 .486 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 54 108 .427 54.0 108.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 101.0 93.0 72.0 59.0 47.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 101 61 .546 101.0 61.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Indians 93 69 .520 93.0 69.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 72 89 .460 72.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 59 103 .444 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 47 114 .441 47.0 114.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 107.0 97.0 78.0 72.0 68.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 107 55 .594 107.0 55.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Athletics 97 65 .527 97.0 65.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Rangers 78 84 .451 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 72 90 .503 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 68 94 .484 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 97.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 96.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.0 93.0 86.0 81.0 57.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 97 65 .527 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Nationals 93 69 .519 93.0 69.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Mets 86 76 .504 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 81 81 .504 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 57 105 .420 57.0 105.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.0 89.0 84.0 75.0 69.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 91 71 .483 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Brewers 89 73 .516 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Cubs 84 78 .514 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 75 87 .519 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 69 93 .476 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 106.0 85.0 77.0 71.0 70.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 106 56 .539 106.0 56.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 85 77 .495 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 77 85 .440 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 71 91 .498 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 70 92 .498 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 93.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
