Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Jul 26 08:01:39 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 89.2 85.7 80.0 69.2
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           58   40   .517   89.9   72.1   40.27999   35.83667   76.11665
Blue Jays         56   44   .562   89.8   72.2   38.41649   37.25613   75.67262
Red Sox           55   42   .524   87.6   74.4   20.00536   35.97307   55.97843
Yankees           51   48   .499   80.6   81.4    1.29788    5.66535    6.96323
Rays              38   60   .507   69.3   92.7     .00028     .00523     .00552

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.4 84.8 80.6 76.6 68.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           56   41   .540   90.9   71.1   84.21868    4.66555   88.88424
Tigers            52   48   .515   83.7   78.3   11.41242   12.69141   24.10382
White Sox         49   50   .499   79.7   82.3    2.75573    2.67993    5.43567
Royals            48   50   .493   78.8   83.2    1.61048    1.93950    3.54997
Twins             37   61   .503   68.4   93.6     .00269     .00068     .00337

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.6 87.4 83.2 76.5 71.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           58   42   .512   89.4   72.6   52.30474   21.90574   74.21048
Astros            54   45   .564   88.1   73.9   36.74294   25.23097   61.97391
Mariners          50   48   .549   84.3   77.7   10.78638   15.80468   26.59106
Athletics         45   55   .504   74.5   87.5     .09541     .17768     .27309
Angels            44   55   .506   74.2   87.8     .07053     .16742     .23794

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.5 88.7 84.1 72.0 59.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         58   41   .517   92.3   69.7   67.94096   20.51359   88.45455
Marlins           53   46   .496   85.6   76.4    9.08339   23.48971   32.57310
Mets              52   45   .525   88.3   73.7   22.97036   36.46064   59.43099
Phillies          46   55   .418   72.0   90.0     .00529     .03137     .03666
Braves            33   66   .409   59.7  102.3     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.1 87.0 82.3 72.2 65.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              59   39   .544   94.9   67.1   90.59944    5.69512   96.29456
Cardinals         52   46   .496   84.5   77.5    4.50498   19.42623   23.93120
Pirates           51   47   .509   85.0   77.0    4.89176   22.09197   26.98373
Brewers           42   55   .440   71.6   90.4     .00378     .01999     .02377
Reds              39   60   .426   65.8   96.2     .00005     .00010     .00015

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.2 89.3 76.8 72.5 68.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Giants            58   41   .515   91.3   70.7   44.20947   38.93069   83.14016
Dodgers           56   44   .554   92.2   69.8   55.75377   33.05743   88.81120
Rockies           47   52   .443   75.2   86.8     .03353     .25850     .29204
Padres            43   57   .449   71.9   90.1     .00253     .01777     .02030
Diamondbacks      41   58   .458   70.5   91.5     .00070     .00690     .00760

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.