Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Apr 18 08:39:52 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.7 87.5 83.1 78.6 72.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox            7    3   .540   87.7   74.3   38.17088   19.92423   58.09511
Rays               6    5   .517   81.9   80.1   14.87047   15.50497   30.37544
Orioles            5    5   .535   84.3   77.7   22.37672   18.85380   41.23053
Blue Jays          5    6   .512   80.4   81.6   11.20920   13.12376   24.33296
Yankees            4    6   .523   81.3   80.7   13.37272   14.73711   28.10983

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.7 86.4 81.4 75.9 67.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers             9    1   .514   85.1   76.9   30.33610   16.39275   46.72885
Royals             8    2   .520   85.2   76.8   30.75384   16.24324   46.99709
Twins              4    6   .448   69.0   93.0    1.08068    1.21164    2.29233
Indians            3    6   .535   83.2   78.8   22.58533   14.94238   37.52771
White Sox          3    6   .522   80.9   81.1   15.24404   12.17051   27.41455

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.5 86.1 81.2 76.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels             5    5   .515   81.5   80.5   17.52978   12.42015   29.94993
Athletics          5    6   .551   86.7   75.3   39.72705   15.65619   55.38324
Rangers            5    6   .473   73.8   88.2    3.62883    3.67477    7.30360
Astros             4    6   .509   79.4   82.6   11.97974    9.74468   21.72442
Mariners           3    7   .541   84.2   77.8   27.13460   15.39982   42.53442

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.3 83.8 76.2 70.1 62.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets               8    3   .471   81.5   80.5    9.26488   24.04278   33.30766
Braves             7    3   .413   71.2   90.8    1.06752    3.67684    4.74436
Nationals          5    6   .580   96.6   65.4   87.45267    6.76039   94.21306
Marlins            3    8   .455   73.8   88.2    1.93081    6.44592    8.37673
Phillies           3    8   .410   66.9   95.1     .28413    1.18421    1.46835

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.2 87.6 82.9 78.2 72.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals          6    3   .536   89.6   72.4   47.42931   24.40284   71.83215
Cubs               5    4   .511   83.8   78.2   19.79290   24.67296   44.46585
Reds               5    5   .488   79.8   82.2    9.23107   16.91793   26.14900
Pirates            4    6   .496   80.3   81.7   10.59728   17.65805   28.25532
Brewers            2    8   .516   81.5   80.5   12.94945   20.51523   33.46468

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.6 84.8 79.1 74.1 67.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            7    3   .546   93.0   69.0   75.24574   10.59979   85.84553
Rockies            7    3   .444   76.5   85.5    5.51169    9.83110   15.34279
Padres             7    4   .474   80.6   81.4   11.62298   18.31243   29.93541
Diamondbacks       6    5   .447   75.2   86.8    3.88937    7.70540   11.59478
Giants             3    9   .469   75.0   87.0    3.73023    7.27412   11.00435

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.9
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.