Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Apr 24 07:46:02 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.6 89.0 84.9 80.7 75.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 12 9 .544 85.9 76.1 21.61748 26.57229 48.18977 Blue Jays 11 10 .523 81.2 80.8 8.74707 16.17158 24.91865 Orioles 10 10 .531 82.6 79.4 11.35838 19.54796 30.90634 Rays 10 11 .561 85.7 76.3 21.34995 25.66949 47.01943 Red Sox 10 12 .583 89.0 73.0 36.92713 27.65864 64.58578
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.5 84.6 79.7 74.9 68.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox 11 11 .505 80.8 81.2 16.09357 9.90691 26.00048 Tigers 10 8 .551 88.5 73.5 57.94741 9.72543 67.67283 Royals 10 10 .493 78.0 84.0 9.45859 6.36911 15.82770 Twins 10 10 .449 71.7 90.3 2.17440 1.47418 3.64858 Indians 10 11 .508 80.1 81.9 14.32603 8.92480 23.25083
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.0 85.6 80.1 73.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 14 8 .527 86.8 75.2 41.16580 15.56000 56.72579 Athletics 13 8 .525 85.7 76.3 34.20695 15.92380 50.13075 Angels 10 11 .525 82.9 79.1 21.68358 13.57917 35.26275 Mariners 8 13 .469 72.5 89.5 1.99902 2.05018 4.04920 Astros 7 15 .462 69.8 92.2 .94465 .86646 1.81111 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.0 86.6 80.5 75.3 69.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 14 7 .506 86.8 75.2 30.59135 29.29706 59.88840 Nationals 12 10 .548 91.1 70.9 59.41457 20.83159 80.24616 Mets 11 10 .453 75.9 86.1 3.33245 7.39407 10.72652 Phillies 10 11 .462 75.9 86.1 3.58943 7.34877 10.93820 Marlins 10 12 .464 75.7 86.3 3.07221 7.10486 10.17708
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.5 87.2 81.3 75.4 66.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 16 6 .497 86.4 75.6 26.49973 30.66029 57.16002 Cardinals 12 10 .557 91.6 70.4 59.56175 22.13043 81.69218 Reds 10 11 .497 80.7 81.3 8.77934 18.01735 26.79669 Pirates 9 13 .496 78.2 83.8 4.88472 12.02471 16.90943 Cubs 7 13 .432 67.5 94.5 .27446 .89230 1.16676
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.2 84.2 79.8 75.4 69.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 13 9 .510 85.9 76.1 46.34974 12.16392 58.51367 Giants 12 10 .487 81.5 80.5 21.58493 11.98766 33.57259 Rockies 12 11 .486 80.5 81.5 18.42703 10.35183 28.77886 Padres 10 12 .472 77.4 84.6 9.83335 6.59203 16.42538 Diamondbacks 6 18 .482 73.7 88.3 3.80495 3.20312 7.00806 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
