Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Aug 1 07:27:44 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 89.6 86.1 83.1 80.2 76.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Orioles 60 47 .510 87.1 74.9 44.56202 22.73990 67.30192 Blue Jays 60 50 .535 86.8 75.2 40.74019 23.98748 64.72767 Yankees 55 52 .509 81.5 80.5 6.24067 9.10926 15.34993 Rays 53 55 .562 82.1 79.9 7.80084 11.04696 18.84779 Red Sox 48 60 .565 77.5 84.5 .65629 1.61114 2.26742
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.7 83.4 80.3 77.4 73.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 58 47 .531 88.0 74.0 78.62558 4.11075 82.73633 Royals 55 52 .501 81.9 80.1 12.33423 7.92219 20.25641 Indians 53 55 .494 79.8 82.2 5.23528 3.50643 8.74171 White Sox 53 56 .495 78.9 83.1 3.39835 2.40103 5.79938 Twins 48 59 .486 74.4 87.6 .40657 .14582 .55239
Average wins by position in AL west: 97.2 90.8 82.4 71.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 66 41 .554 96.6 65.4 81.19848 18.51470 99.71318 Angels 64 43 .521 91.3 70.7 18.52733 75.18484 93.71217 Mariners 56 52 .512 82.5 79.5 .27418 19.71498 19.98916 Astros 44 65 .490 69.3 92.7 .00000 .00197 .00197 Rangers 43 65 .499 69.3 92.7 .00000 .00257 .00257 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 89.8 84.3 80.0 76.5 71.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 58 48 .532 89.1 72.9 77.36275 11.83794 89.20068 Braves 58 51 .490 84.2 77.8 19.02658 28.63396 47.66054 Marlins 53 55 .475 78.8 83.2 2.01228 5.69135 7.70363 Mets 52 56 .469 77.9 84.1 1.56959 3.40345 4.97303 Phillies 48 61 .449 71.9 90.1 .02881 .08201 .11083
Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.8 86.2 83.1 78.9 69.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 60 49 .513 87.6 74.4 49.36588 29.97322 79.33910 Cardinals 57 50 .514 86.0 76.0 31.10229 34.90932 66.01161 Pirates 57 51 .502 84.4 77.6 16.88516 32.23234 49.11750 Reds 54 54 .476 79.9 82.1 2.64448 9.64166 12.28613 Cubs 45 62 .452 69.6 92.4 .00220 .01718 .01938
Average wins by position in NL West: 91.3 84.0 76.3 72.8 69.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 62 47 .528 91.0 71.0 88.57382 7.75160 96.32541 Giants 58 50 .484 84.2 77.8 11.33707 35.23888 46.57594 Padres 48 60 .456 72.8 89.2 .03377 .17883 .21260 Diamondbacks 48 61 .484 74.0 88.0 .04598 .35453 .40051 Rockies 44 64 .497 71.5 90.5 .00937 .05374 .06311 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 87.4 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 85.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
