Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon May 22 08:02:10 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  90.2 85.7 82.4 79.0 74.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           25   16   .502   84.3   77.7   29.54774   15.83517   45.38291
Orioles           25   17   .499   83.0   79.0   22.41823   15.05918   37.47741
Rays              23   23   .515   81.6   80.4   15.43659   12.97910   28.41569
Red Sox           22   21   .520   82.7   79.3   20.99575   14.38786   35.38361
Blue Jays         19   26   .531   80.2   81.8   11.60169   10.49829   22.09998

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.1 84.9 78.7 73.2 67.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           23   19   .585   94.5   67.5   85.60834    8.23814   93.84648
Twins             22   18   .477   78.6   83.4    3.34573   11.61395   14.95967
Tigers            21   21   .521   83.2   78.8   10.31538   26.59354   36.90891
White Sox         20   22   .454   72.7   89.3     .51521    2.13874    2.65395
Royals            18   25   .452   70.1   91.9     .21535     .78661    1.00196

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.7 86.9 82.1 78.0 72.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            29   15   .593   98.4   63.6   91.59102    6.25612   97.84714
Rangers           24   21   .509   81.1   80.9    2.54899   21.81097   24.35996
Angels            23   23   .515   80.5   81.5    1.93932   19.18844   21.12775
Athletics         20   24   .498   76.3   85.7     .55462    6.96847    7.52309
Mariners          20   25   .542   82.3   79.7    3.36606   27.64543   31.01149

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.3
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.8 82.5 76.7 71.8 65.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         26   17   .544   92.2   69.8   86.07083    5.91950   91.99033
Braves            18   23   .454   73.7   88.3    1.53289    3.57874    5.11163
Mets              18   24   .513   80.8   81.2   10.20163   18.09232   28.29396
Phillies          15   26   .424   67.9   94.1     .17348     .52196     .69544
Marlins           15   28   .485   74.6   87.4    2.02117    4.34397    6.36514

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.9 85.4 80.3 75.7 69.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           25   19   .446   78.1   83.9    2.58189   12.44290   15.02479
Cardinals         22   19   .486   82.2   79.8    8.64165   27.24733   35.88898
Cubs              22   20   .581   94.2   67.8   84.46313    9.46874   93.93188
Reds              20   23   .438   72.1   89.9     .39938    2.33007    2.72946
Pirates           20   24   .490   79.3   82.7    3.91394   16.04639   19.96033

Average wins by position in NL West:  97.8 87.2 82.0 76.7 61.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rockies           28   17   .449   82.0   80.0    3.40233   29.94398   33.34630
Dodgers           26   19   .588   97.4   64.6   89.33869    8.53843   97.87712
Diamondbacks      26   19   .471   82.3   79.7    3.95034   31.37253   35.32287
Giants            19   26   .520   82.0   80.0    3.30738   30.12194   33.42931
Padres            16   30   .394   61.9  100.1     .00127     .03122     .03248

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.