Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Sat May 9 07:53:17 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.9 87.3 82.5 78.4 73.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 26 13 .566 94.9 67.1 79.54960 16.97680 96.52640 Rays 25 13 .494 84.4 77.6 11.02380 47.81850 58.84230 Blue Jays 17 21 .509 78.0 84.0 2.19650 20.29380 22.49030 Orioles 17 22 .525 80.2 81.8 3.86250 29.92970 33.79220 Red Sox 17 22 .519 79.8 82.2 3.36760 28.01170 31.37930
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.4 82.5 77.9 73.0 66.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 21 19 .487 81.0 81.0 23.74600 17.03100 40.77700 Tigers 18 21 .550 85.5 76.5 55.27450 14.74300 70.01750 Royals 18 21 .499 79.2 82.8 15.82970 14.73620 30.56590 White Sox 17 21 .427 68.2 93.8 .78340 .91440 1.69780 Twins 16 23 .475 74.0 88.0 4.36640 5.14690 9.51330
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.3 85.4 80.7 76.0 68.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 20 18 .483 79.2 82.8 6.72740 21.30510 28.03250 Mariners 19 20 .588 90.5 71.5 68.26830 20.29800 88.56630 Rangers 17 21 .514 81.1 80.9 10.60590 28.55500 39.16090 Astros 16 23 .543 82.2 79.8 14.03240 32.11110 46.14350 Angels 15 24 .460 69.8 92.2 .36600 2.12880 2.49480 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 85.9 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 83.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.4 84.5 79.4 74.7 69.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 26 13 .544 92.5 69.5 81.06690 12.12330 93.19020 Nationals 19 20 .448 73.1 88.9 .94660 5.52570 6.47230 Phillies 17 22 .529 81.2 80.8 8.95920 30.06510 39.02430 Marlins 17 22 .475 74.3 87.7 1.40990 7.82170 9.23160 Mets 15 23 .534 80.0 82.0 7.61740 24.96570 32.58310
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.4 87.7 82.6 77.9 72.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 27 12 .555 95.3 66.7 79.24700 17.69390 96.94090 Cardinals 23 15 .441 77.2 84.8 1.48120 17.07850 18.55970 Pirates 21 18 .520 84.0 78.0 8.99340 47.60750 56.60090 Brewers 20 16 .515 83.9 78.1 9.33560 46.11290 55.44850 Reds 20 19 .465 76.2 85.8 .94280 13.81850 14.76130
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.1 84.7 78.7 73.1 65.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 24 14 .627 102.1 59.9 97.79190 1.98730 99.77920 Padres 22 16 .490 81.0 81.0 1.27600 36.51790 37.79390 Diamondbacks 17 20 .501 79.7 82.3 .82010 29.53010 30.35020 Rockies 16 23 .423 67.3 94.7 .00570 .89320 .89890 Giants 15 23 .481 74.1 87.9 .10630 8.25870 8.36500 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 89.7 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
