Postseason Odds, Forecast version
Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Mar 14 14:54:37 EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 89.7 84.9 80.2 73.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .541 87.3 74.7 27.54360 33.69100 61.23460 Rays 0 0 .535 86.2 75.8 23.44420 33.26180 56.70600 Blue Jays 0 0 .528 84.9 77.1 19.24240 31.46410 50.70650 Orioles 0 0 .527 84.7 77.3 18.62120 31.17530 49.79650 Red Sox 0 0 .509 81.6 80.4 11.14860 25.23440 36.38300
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.7 83.5 77.5 71.6 63.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .536 88.0 74.0 56.90840 12.62780 69.53620 Guardians 0 0 .494 80.9 81.1 21.95540 14.69510 36.65050 Tigers 0 0 .473 77.3 84.7 12.37080 10.34790 22.71870 Royals 0 0 .455 74.0 88.0 6.83430 6.46100 13.29530 White Sox 0 0 .419 67.9 94.1 1.93110 1.98900 3.92010
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.0 87.9 81.4 74.0 62.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 0 0 .562 91.8 70.2 53.63780 25.57410 79.21190 Rangers 0 0 .528 86.0 76.0 24.59060 31.57420 56.16480 Mariners 0 0 .513 83.4 78.6 16.67900 27.76600 44.44500 Angels 0 0 .473 76.5 85.5 4.86920 13.18020 18.04940 Athletics 0 0 .399 63.8 98.2 .22340 .95810 1.18150 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.5 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.9 88.6 79.7 72.1 61.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 0 0 .600 98.1 63.9 74.81870 19.48620 94.30490 Phillies 0 0 .540 87.9 74.1 20.22710 47.46620 67.69330 Marlins 0 0 .473 76.6 85.4 2.68370 17.38740 20.07110 Mets 0 0 .468 75.6 86.4 2.15320 14.99230 17.14550 Nationals 0 0 .401 64.1 97.9 .11730 1.36920 1.48650
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.0 86.4 81.4 76.2 68.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 0 0 .520 84.6 77.4 29.03050 24.29290 53.32340 Cubs 0 0 .519 84.5 77.5 28.62290 24.24490 52.86780 Reds 0 0 .506 81.8 80.2 19.26410 21.71260 40.97670 Brewers 0 0 .506 81.8 80.2 19.29850 21.66770 40.96620 Pirates 0 0 .452 72.9 89.1 3.78400 7.56910 11.35310
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.8 87.9 80.3 73.7 65.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .610 99.6 62.4 82.43720 13.47720 95.91440 Diamondbacks 0 0 .526 85.1 76.9 11.74720 43.43020 55.17740 Padres 0 0 .481 77.5 84.5 2.92980 20.25100 23.18080 Giants 0 0 .477 76.8 85.2 2.51720 18.35070 20.86790 Rockies 0 0 .430 68.8 93.2 .36860 4.30240 4.67100 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.7 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.2 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 85.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.