Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Jul 21 07:37:32 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  87.8 84.5 82.1 79.7 76.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           53   44   .510   84.9   77.1   40.23292   11.26137   51.49429
Blue Jays         51   48   .535   83.1   78.9   24.41019   10.58328   34.99347
Yankees           50   47   .509   81.7   80.3   15.52404    7.81675   23.34080
Rays              47   53   .562   80.5   81.5    9.57734    5.84869   15.42603
Red Sox           46   52   .565   80.6   81.4   10.25552    6.18448   16.43999

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.7 83.7 80.2 77.1 73.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Tigers            54   41   .531   89.2   72.8   81.61730    5.32928   86.94657
Indians           50   48   .494   81.6   80.4    9.65833   11.39255   21.05088
Royals            48   49   .501   80.2   81.8    5.75006    7.17280   12.92287
White Sox         47   52   .495   77.6   84.4    2.09814    2.48576    4.58389
Twins             44   53   .486   75.4   86.6     .87617     .82496    1.70114

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.3 91.0 83.6 73.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         61   37   .554   96.5   65.5   77.80503   21.78736   99.59238
Angels            59   38   .521   91.5   70.5   21.22548   72.24767   93.47316
Mariners          52   46   .512   83.9   78.1     .96888   36.98000   37.94888
Astros            41   58   .490   71.0   91.0     .00055     .05630     .05685
Rangers           39   59   .499   70.1   91.9     .00005     .02874     .02879

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.5 85.1 78.7 74.9 70.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            54   44   .490   85.9   76.1   29.50298   31.92704   61.43002
Nationals         53   43   .532   89.3   72.7   68.90172   17.56742   86.46915
Mets              46   52   .469   76.5   85.5     .86028    1.99414    2.85442
Marlins           45   52   .475   75.9   86.1     .67112    1.63808    2.30920
Phillies          43   55   .449   72.1   89.9     .06390     .17335     .23726

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.2 86.6 83.5 79.8 69.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         54   45   .514   87.1   74.9   39.79896   30.92303   70.72198
Brewers           54   45   .513   86.9   75.1   37.60535   30.98288   68.58823
Pirates           52   46   .502   84.3   77.7   15.80578   27.78866   43.59443
Reds              51   47   .476   81.7   80.3    6.78321   15.46023   22.24344
Cubs              40   57   .452   69.6   92.4     .00671     .03398     .04069

Average wins by position in NL West:  89.8 84.2 76.7 72.9 69.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           55   45   .528   88.7   73.3   70.90498   14.21996   85.12494
Giants            54   44   .484   85.2   76.8   28.67052   26.46139   55.13190
Padres            43   55   .456   72.3   89.7     .11110     .19892     .31002
Diamondbacks      43   56   .484   73.9   88.1     .20228     .42862     .63090
Rockies           40   58   .497   72.7   89.3     .11112     .20230     .31341

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  88.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.