Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Apr 27 08:02:25 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.1 85.8 81.9 78.0 72.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           14    6   .499   82.7   79.3   22.70554   13.74033   36.44586
Yankees           12    7   .502   81.8   80.2   19.55652   12.43289   31.98942
Red Sox           11    9   .520   83.6   78.4   26.86195   14.26482   41.12677
Rays              11   12   .515   81.2   80.8   16.65525   11.98356   28.63881
Blue Jays          6   14   .531   80.2   81.8   14.22074   10.58346   24.80419

Average wins by position in AL Central:  96.0 85.6 78.4 72.6 65.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           11    9   .585   94.7   67.3   79.06031   11.45986   90.52016
Tigers            11    9   .521   84.6   77.4   16.60768   28.75310   45.36078
White Sox         11    9   .454   73.6   88.4    1.31568    4.28411    5.59979
Twins             10   11   .477   76.1   85.9    2.55482    7.41882    9.97364
Royals             7   14   .452   69.4   92.6     .46152    1.26505    1.72657

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.7 87.5 82.1 77.3 71.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            14    7   .593   96.7   65.3   81.28581   11.95981   93.24562
Angels            11   12   .515   79.8   82.2    3.97568   17.08653   21.06222
Athletics         10   11   .498   77.1   84.9    2.15782   10.17626   12.33408
Rangers           10   12   .509   78.8   83.2    3.34198   14.03625   17.37823
Mariners           9   13   .542   83.7   78.3    9.23871   30.55514   39.79385

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.3
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.1 85.4 79.3 73.3 66.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         15    6   .544   93.8   68.2   76.84177   12.47205   89.31382
Marlins           10    9   .485   80.4   80.6    9.18390   20.21440   29.39830
Phillies          10    9   .424   70.5   90.5     .77090    2.73250    3.50340
Mets               8   12   .513   82.2   79.8   11.92227   23.80918   35.73145
Braves             7   12   .454   72.5   89.5    1.28117    4.07969    5.36086

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.7 85.0 79.0 73.8 67.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              12    9   .581   97.1   64.9   89.13167    6.47701   95.60867
Brewers           12   11   .446   74.7   87.3    1.17088    6.97293    8.14380
Reds              10   12   .438   71.3   90.7     .49823    2.96353    3.46175
Cardinals          9   11   .486   79.9   82.1    4.82080   19.68726   24.50805
Pirates            9   12   .490   79.7   82.3    4.37843   19.30467   23.68310

Average wins by position in NL West:  96.7 86.8 80.9 74.8 63.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rockies           14    8   .449   78.4   83.6    3.45943   14.68117   18.14060
Diamondbacks      14    9   .471   81.3   80.7    6.51319   24.11811   30.63130
Dodgers           10   12   .588   95.6   66.4   80.13420   12.83239   92.96659
Padres             9   14   .394   64.6   97.4     .04171     .32506     .36677
Giants             8   14   .520   83.0   79.0    9.85147   29.33005   39.18152

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  89.9
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.