Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Oct 6 07:52:28 EDT 2022
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.0 92.0 86.0 83.0 78.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 99 63 .546 99.0 63.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Blue Jays 92 70 .580 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Rays 86 76 .527 86.0 76.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Orioles 83 79 .441 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 78 84 .483 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.0 81.0 78.0 66.0 65.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 92 70 .516 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 White Sox 81 81 .529 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 78 84 .515 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 66 96 .412 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 65 97 .472 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 106.0 90.0 73.0 68.0 60.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 106 56 .536 106.0 56.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mariners 90 72 .497 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Angels 73 89 .496 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 68 94 .473 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 60 102 .417 60.0 102.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 101.0 101.0 87.0 69.0 55.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 101 61 .560 101.0 61.0 50.03550 49.96450 100.00000 Mets 101 61 .535 101.0 61.0 49.96450 50.03550 100.00000 Phillies 87 75 .519 87.0 75.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Marlins 69 93 .455 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 55 107 .409 55.0 107.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.0 86.0 74.0 62.0 62.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 93 69 .527 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Brewers 86 76 .553 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 74 88 .517 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 62 100 .424 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 62 100 .441 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 111.0 89.0 81.0 74.0 68.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 111 51 .603 111.0 51.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Padres 89 73 .552 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Giants 81 81 .522 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 74 88 .437 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 68 94 .480 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 101.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 87.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
