Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Fri May 27 08:02:36 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.1 86.9 83.0 79.2 74.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           29   18   .541   88.7   73.3   47.93790   22.21195   70.14985
Orioles           26   19   .483   79.3   82.7    6.16246    9.82162   15.98409
Blue Jays         24   25   .558   86.1   75.9   28.83699   25.67517   54.51215
Yankees           22   24   .524   80.5   81.5    8.05360   12.83773   20.89133
Rays              21   24   .529   80.9   81.1    9.00905   13.89366   22.90271

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.4 84.9 79.5 74.0 67.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
White Sox         27   21   .559   89.2   71.8   64.78615   14.10915   78.89530
Indians           25   20   .519   84.5   77.5   24.49783   20.70944   45.20728
Royals            24   22   .454   74.1   86.9    1.93145    2.59685    4.52830
Tigers            23   23   .507   79.6   82.4    8.48178    9.58569   18.06747
Twins             12   34   .510   69.7   92.3     .30278     .44369     .74647

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.1 86.2 82.2 78.3 73.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mariners          28   18   .555   90.0   72.0   61.72557   15.89439   77.61996
Rangers           27   20   .505   83.0   79.0   15.59868   18.81813   34.41681
Angels            21   26   .535   78.9   83.1    5.53882    9.16109   14.69990
Astros            20   28   .571   82.3   79.7   13.09365   17.18627   30.27991
Athletics         20   28   .530   77.9   84.1    4.04329    7.05518   11.09846

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.2
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.8 90.2 82.3 71.0 58.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         29   19   .531   93.8   68.2   54.33568   29.56508   83.90077
Mets              27   19   .533   92.2   69.8   41.16023   34.99501   76.15524
Phillies          26   21   .381   71.1   90.9     .06837     .36543     .43380
Marlins           25   22   .470   82.9   79.1    4.43522   14.48522   18.92044
Braves            12   34   .378   58.6  103.4     .00050     .00050     .00100

Average wins by position in NL Central:  104.2 89.0 81.0 69.8 60.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              31   14   .601  104.0   58.0   96.08968    3.31002   99.39970
Pirates           27   19   .509   87.5   74.5    3.31903   43.00347   46.32250
Cardinals         24   24   .492   82.1   79.9     .58808   14.72606   15.31415
Brewers           21   26   .410   69.4   92.6     .00320     .18250     .18570
Reds              15   32   .389   60.8  101.2     .00000     .00160     .00160

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.2 88.8 80.4 72.2 65.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Giants            30   19   .529   91.9   70.1   51.24033   24.93450   76.17483
Dodgers           25   23   .557   91.2   70.8   45.19268   27.25909   72.45177
Rockies           22   24   .402   71.1   90.9     .14093     .30924     .45017
Diamondbacks      21   28   .503   80.4   81.6    3.40980    6.81230   10.22211
Padres            19   29   .408   67.1   94.9     .01625     .04998     .06623

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.3
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.