Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Fri Aug 18 08:03:17 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.0 86.8 81.6 78.8 75.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 69 51 .548 91.5 70.5 80.54187 17.92656 98.46843 Yankees 65 55 .530 87.0 75.0 18.76761 62.37939 81.14700 Rays 60 63 .498 79.0 83.0 .20588 5.85608 6.06197 Orioles 59 62 .507 79.4 82.6 .31900 7.59436 7.91336 Blue Jays 59 62 .488 78.1 83.9 .16564 3.81882 3.98447
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.5 83.8 80.1 73.2 63.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 66 53 .558 90.3 71.7 91.00499 5.52391 96.52890 Royals 61 59 .499 82.0 80.0 5.26159 20.88738 26.14897 Twins 60 59 .501 81.9 80.1 3.71901 21.90534 25.62435 Tigers 53 67 .480 73.3 88.7 .01441 .09357 .10798 White Sox 45 73 .432 63.8 98.2 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.1 84.1 81.1 78.2 71.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 74 47 .612 99.1 62.9 99.94585 .05260 99.99845 Angels 62 59 .501 81.7 80.3 .03315 22.56575 22.59890 Mariners 61 61 .527 81.0 81.0 .01045 16.80096 16.81141 Rangers 60 60 .501 80.6 81.4 .01055 14.58334 14.59389 Athletics 53 68 .475 71.1 90.9 .00000 .01193 .01193 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 87.5 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 84.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.5 79.8 75.8 72.4 63.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 72 47 .513 94.5 67.5 99.89870 .04644 99.94514 Marlins 58 61 .465 78.8 83.2 .09280 2.60981 2.70261 Braves 54 65 .456 74.2 87.8 .00288 .07496 .07785 Mets 53 66 .502 75.0 87.0 .00562 .14396 .14958 Phillies 43 76 .470 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 87.7 84.3 81.4 77.2 69.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 63 57 .541 86.4 75.6 58.94270 8.78876 67.73146 Brewers 63 59 .496 82.5 79.5 14.23910 8.01669 22.25578 Cardinals 62 59 .515 83.9 78.1 25.50913 11.11879 36.62792 Pirates 58 63 .486 77.7 84.3 1.30821 .79952 2.10773 Reds 51 71 .455 69.1 92.9 .00087 .00023 .00110
Average wins by position in NL West: 110.1 90.1 86.1 71.5 66.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 85 34 .569 110.1 51.9 99.99860 .00140 100.00000 Diamondbacks 67 54 .506 88.3 73.7 .00070 85.90305 85.90375 Rockies 67 54 .492 87.8 74.2 .00070 82.49089 82.49159 Padres 54 67 .415 70.9 91.1 .00000 .00548 .00548 Giants 49 74 .452 67.1 94.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.1 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
