Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat May 26 08:03:23 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  102.0 94.6 80.9 74.2 67.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           35   16   .590   99.8   62.2   61.19983   36.84880   98.04863
Yankees           32   15   .568   96.7   64.3   38.58530   56.69430   95.27960
Blue Jays         24   27   .506   79.1   82.9     .19278    7.50540    7.69818
Rays              23   26   .463   73.9   88.1     .01948    1.48063    1.50011
Orioles           17   34   .493   70.0   92.0     .00260     .27706     .27966

Average wins by position in AL Central:  98.2 83.4 69.5 63.6 57.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           24   25   .636   98.0   64.0   94.68640    2.91506   97.60146
Tigers            22   28   .413   66.9   95.1     .01175     .06001     .07176
Twins             21   25   .536   83.4   78.6    5.29880   19.30956   24.60836
Royals            17   34   .438   64.4   97.6     .00255     .01648     .01902
White Sox         15   33   .406   58.9  103.1     .00050     .00045     .00095

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.8 88.7 83.3 78.4 72.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            34   18   .588   98.4   63.6   87.98322    8.59607   96.57929
Mariners          30   20   .511   85.9   76.1    7.23140   33.88156   41.11296
Angels            28   23   .512   84.0   78.0    4.02838   24.11573   28.14412
Athletics         26   25   .473   78.1   83.9     .57243    5.59713    6.16956
Rangers           21   32   .506   75.7   86.3     .18457    2.70176    2.88632

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  95.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.5 86.2 81.2 75.9 62.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            29   20   .436   79.5   82.5    3.96303    5.46615    9.42918
Phillies          28   20   .490   84.2   77.8   14.77843   14.95739   29.73583
Nationals         27   22   .562   92.1   68.9   75.13360    8.58470   83.71830
Mets              25   22   .478   80.8   81.2    6.12202    7.51876   13.64077
Marlins           19   31   .377   62.4   99.6     .00292     .00172     .00463

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.5 91.4 85.8 78.5 64.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           32   20   .535   91.7   70.3   30.56925   45.16168   75.73093
Pirates           28   22   .473   79.8   82.2    1.41137    8.12992    9.54129
Cubs              26   21   .588   95.0   67.0   57.93435   30.70436   88.63871
Cardinals         26   22   .531   86.6   75.4   10.08410   32.65607   42.74017
Reds              18   34   .426   64.5   97.5     .00093     .00960     .01053

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.5 87.1 82.5 76.4 60.7
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rockies           27   24   .519   85.2   76.8   22.25998   13.77965   36.03962
Diamondbacks      26   24   .508   85.4   76.6   22.14933   15.28500   37.43432
Giants            24   27   .479   78.3   83.7    3.33791    3.54479    6.88270
Dodgers           23   27   .586   89.6   72.4   52.25114   14.19990   66.45103
Padres            21   31   .360   60.8  101.2     .00165     .00033     .00198

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  92.4
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.