Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Feb 25 07:20:02 EST 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.3 89.7 84.8 79.8 73.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .554 88.2 73.8 30.49520 35.02180 65.51700 Red Sox 0 0 .553 88.0 74.0 29.63120 35.00070 64.63190 Orioles 0 0 .533 84.7 77.3 18.33510 32.18660 50.52170 Blue Jays 0 0 .525 83.0 79.0 13.76570 29.01400 42.77970 Rays 0 0 .504 79.8 82.2 7.77280 21.48780 29.26060
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.7 85.9 79.8 73.2 61.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 0 0 .551 89.1 72.9 50.75000 20.48370 71.23370 Royals 0 0 .521 84.2 77.8 26.11680 23.34780 49.46460 Twins 0 0 .497 79.9 82.1 13.28270 17.31100 30.59370 Guardians 0 0 .486 77.9 84.1 9.49710 13.80230 23.29940 White Sox 0 0 .401 63.3 98.7 .35340 .76450 1.11790
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.9 85.5 80.0 74.4 66.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 0 0 .544 87.9 74.1 47.41030 18.96330 66.37360 Astros 0 0 .518 83.4 78.6 25.74380 20.32060 46.06440 Rangers 0 0 .493 78.9 83.1 12.70080 14.44750 27.14830 Athletics 0 0 .489 78.2 83.8 11.24780 13.33720 24.58500 Angels 0 0 .450 71.2 90.8 2.89730 4.51120 7.40850 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.8 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.2 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 85.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.3 88.5 81.8 73.8 64.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 0 0 .557 89.8 72.2 39.88610 35.85390 75.74000 Mets 0 0 .555 89.4 72.6 37.64730 36.54850 74.19580 Braves 0 0 .529 84.9 77.1 19.82300 35.77790 55.60090 Marlins 0 0 .454 72.3 89.7 1.81290 8.38290 10.19580 Nationals 0 0 .435 68.9 93.1 .83070 4.32050 5.15120
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.0 85.2 80.0 74.6 66.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .527 85.2 76.8 36.76680 21.18590 57.95270 Pirates 0 0 .504 81.1 80.9 20.31040 18.99130 39.30170 Reds 0 0 .504 81.0 81.0 20.16330 19.00280 39.16610 Brewers 0 0 .504 81.0 81.0 20.03610 18.92190 38.95800 Cardinals 0 0 .441 70.3 91.7 2.72340 4.60610 7.32950
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.6 87.2 80.0 74.0 66.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .614 99.6 62.4 84.48680 11.62750 96.11430 Diamondbacks 0 0 .521 83.6 78.4 9.64190 39.89090 49.53280 Giants 0 0 .478 76.1 85.9 2.30480 17.19880 19.50360 Padres 0 0 .478 76.0 86.0 2.29590 17.00060 19.29650 Rockies 0 0 .460 73.2 88.8 1.27060 10.69050 11.96110 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 84.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
