Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Mar 25 09:02:22 EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.5 86.9 82.0 77.0 70.4 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .524 85.5 76.5 31.08770 28.39880 59.48650 Red Sox 0 0 .523 85.2 76.8 29.78580 28.46990 58.25570 Orioles 0 0 .503 81.9 80.1 18.11530 25.34680 43.46210 Blue Jays 0 0 .491 79.8 82.2 12.71350 21.54900 34.26250 Rays 0 0 .475 77.3 84.7 8.29770 16.67110 24.96880
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.7 84.8 79.3 73.1 61.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 0 0 .515 85.0 77.0 37.32970 21.37100 58.70070 Guardians 0 0 .494 81.5 80.5 22.68810 20.01240 42.70050 Tigers 0 0 .490 80.6 81.4 20.01090 18.92100 38.93190 Royals 0 0 .490 80.5 81.5 19.52780 18.78390 38.31170 White Sox 0 0 .386 62.5 99.5 .44350 .83540 1.27890
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.0 86.1 80.6 74.9 66.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 0 0 .524 86.3 75.7 37.58870 26.14820 63.73690 Mariners 0 0 .512 83.8 78.2 26.12760 25.98530 52.11290 Rangers 0 0 .510 83.4 78.6 24.65270 25.76920 50.42190 Angels 0 0 .477 77.4 84.6 9.23670 16.09950 25.33620 Athletics 0 0 .435 70.5 91.5 2.39430 5.63850 8.03280 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.3 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.8 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 100.4 92.2 85.0 75.4 59.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 0 0 .593 96.0 66.0 52.59120 32.99010 85.58130 Phillies 0 0 .563 91.1 70.9 27.35400 42.35890 69.71290 Mets 0 0 .549 88.3 73.7 17.91510 39.67440 57.58950 Nationals 0 0 .481 77.0 85.0 2.12220 11.72190 13.84410 Marlins 0 0 .381 60.1 101.9 .01750 .19840 .21590
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.3 86.5 81.4 76.2 69.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 0 0 .543 86.9 73.1 43.73380 16.72590 60.45970 Brewers 0 0 .525 84.5 77.5 25.70450 16.92230 42.62680 Cardinals 0 0 .506 81.4 80.6 15.89740 13.51870 29.41610 Reds 0 0 .485 77.8 84.2 8.48460 8.85100 17.33560 Pirates 0 0 .474 76.1 85.9 6.17970 6.79800 12.97770
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 91.6 83.1 74.6 57.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .614 98.7 61.3 71.05940 22.74070 93.80010 Diamondbacks 0 0 .565 91.4 70.6 22.60570 48.34960 70.95530 Padres 0 0 .507 81.4 80.6 4.08130 23.33910 27.42040 Giants 0 0 .490 78.6 83.4 2.24930 15.72660 17.97590 Rockies 0 0 .367 57.6 104.4 .00430 .08440 .08870 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 95.7 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 91.1 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 88.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
