Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Oct 1 07:37:11 EDT 2013
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.0 92.0 85.0 85.0 74.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 97 65 .531 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rays 92 71 .530 92.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Orioles 85 77 .490 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 85 77 .536 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 74 88 .537 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.0 92.0 86.0 66.0 63.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 93 69 .575 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Indians 92 70 .484 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Royals 86 76 .490 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 66 96 .425 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 63 99 .472 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.0 91.0 78.0 71.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 96 66 .509 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Rangers 91 72 .510 91.0 72.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 78 84 .542 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 71 91 .454 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 51 111 .442 51.0 111.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 92.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 91.4
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.0 86.0 74.0 73.0 62.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 96 66 .524 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Nationals 86 76 .528 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 74 88 .470 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 73 89 .504 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 62 100 .411 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.0 94.0 90.0 74.0 66.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 97 65 .517 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Pirates 94 68 .502 94.0 68.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Reds 90 72 .536 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Brewers 74 88 .481 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 66 96 .480 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 92.0 81.0 76.0 76.0 74.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 92 70 .549 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 81 81 .508 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 76 86 .575 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 76 86 .481 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 74 88 .467 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 94.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
