Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Jun 30 08:02:21 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  90.8 86.8 83.5 79.7 74.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           47   30   .483   85.0   77.0   22.44173   19.50976   41.95149
Blue Jays         43   37   .558   87.6   74.4   42.49260   21.22202   63.71462
Red Sox           42   36   .541   85.9   76.1   27.89667   21.57826   49.47493
Yankees           38   39   .524   80.4   81.6    5.82627    7.56726   13.39353
Rays              33   44   .529   76.6   85.4    1.34272    2.14236    3.48508

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.4 85.9 81.3 76.4 66.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           47   30   .519   89.8   72.2   65.64424   14.10258   79.74682
Royals            41   36   .454   78.1   83.9    2.31786    3.70824    6.02610
Tigers            40   38   .507   81.3   80.7    7.36518   10.11043   17.47561
White Sox         39   39   .559   85.5   76.5   24.65979   22.33733   46.99712
Twins             25   52   .510   67.2   94.8     .01293     .01265     .02558

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.0 87.4 82.6 77.4 71.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           51   28   .505   91.6   70.4   67.98707   19.93211   87.91918
Astros            42   37   .571   87.0   75.0   23.54460   34.44007   57.98466
Mariners          39   39   .555   83.2   78.8    7.52781   19.95767   27.48549
Athletics         35   43   .530   76.9   85.1     .80436    2.72758    3.53194
Angels            32   47   .535   73.6   88.4     .13617     .65168     .78785

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.5 88.5 82.2 68.7 59.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         47   32   .531   94.7   67.3   79.58483   14.76206   94.34689
Marlins           41   37   .470   83.5   78.5    3.86440   19.00234   22.86674
Mets              40   37   .533   87.9   74.1   16.54880   41.83516   58.38396
Phillies          35   45   .381   68.3   93.7     .00197     .02467     .02664
Braves            26   52   .378   60.0  102.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.7 86.5 80.7 70.8 61.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              51   26   .601  103.7   58.3   99.44965     .47953   99.92918
Cardinals         40   37   .492   84.4   77.6     .39155   27.89796   28.28951
Pirates           38   41   .509   82.5   79.5     .15870   16.14629   16.30499
Brewers           35   42   .410   70.7   91.3     .00010     .09200     .09210
Reds              29   50   .389   61.5  100.5     .00000     .00020     .00020

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.6 89.7 79.2 72.5 66.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Giants            49   31   .529   93.8   68.2   63.49204   28.87008   92.36212
Dodgers           43   37   .557   91.3   70.7   35.98158   47.00595   82.98752
Rockies           37   41   .402   72.3   89.7     .01869     .20749     .22618
Diamondbacks      36   45   .503   78.6   83.4     .50666    3.66742    4.17408
Padres            33   46   .408   67.1   94.9     .00103     .00886     .00989

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.7
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  88.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.