Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Wed Aug 27 07:46:24 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.4 84.4 81.4 78.5 73.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Orioles           75   55   .502   91.3   70.7   95.13275    1.09092   96.22368
Yankees           68   62   .486   83.2   78.8    3.77420    4.82322    8.59741
Blue Jays         66   66   .509   81.3   80.7     .88997    1.41800    2.30797
Rays              64   68   .522   79.6   82.4     .20293     .28037     .48331
Red Sox           58   74   .522   73.3   88.7     .00015     .00013     .00028

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.4 87.1 82.4 75.3 71.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            73   58   .498   88.5   73.5   47.00638   20.40443   67.41080
Tigers            71   59   .540   88.7   73.3   49.97053   19.31143   69.28196
Indians           67   63   .493   82.7   79.3    3.02194    3.43795    6.45989
White Sox         59   72   .504   74.4   87.6     .00106     .00093     .00198
Twins             58   73   .478   72.6   89.4     .00010     .00007     .00017

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.8 92.4 87.3 70.4
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Angels            78   53   .516   93.9   68.1   46.62330   51.84034   98.46365
Athletics         77   54   .548   94.1   67.9   51.38225   47.40350   98.78575
Mariners          72   59   .518   87.5   74.5    1.99445   49.98869   51.98314
Astros            56   77   .490   70.1   91.9     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           51   80   .467   65.2   96.8     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  92.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.5

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.1 83.9 80.0 76.4 72.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         75   56   .547   92.1   69.9   97.48364    1.97880   99.46244
Braves            68   64   .499   83.4   78.6    2.22318   31.29339   33.51657
Marlins           65   66   .489   79.9   82.1     .28519    5.47829    5.76348
Mets              62   70   .475   76.5   85.5     .00791     .33017     .33808
Phillies          60   72   .447   73.0   89.0     .00008     .01137     .01145

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.0 86.7 83.0 77.6 73.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           73   59   .523   88.8   73.2   59.45722   33.38820   92.84541
Cardinals         71   60   .522   87.4   74.6   36.64945   48.84785   85.49729
Pirates           68   64   .506   83.3   78.7    3.83818   28.36571   32.20390
Reds              63   69   .483   77.3   84.7     .05445     .87082     .92527
Cubs              59   72   .477   73.5   88.5     .00070     .02309     .02379

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.8 84.4 76.1 70.3 67.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           75   58   .526   90.6   71.4   92.06253    6.45446   98.51699
Giants            69   62   .496   84.5   77.5    7.92113   42.71481   50.63594
Padres            61   70   .464   76.0   86.0     .01633     .24300     .25933
Diamondbacks      55   77   .451   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           53   78   .504   68.9   93.1     .00000     .00005     .00005

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  87.3
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  85.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.