Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Apr 24 07:46:02 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.6 89.0 84.9 80.7 75.2
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           12    9   .544   85.9   76.1   21.61748   26.57229   48.18977
Blue Jays         11   10   .523   81.2   80.8    8.74707   16.17158   24.91865
Orioles           10   10   .531   82.6   79.4   11.35838   19.54796   30.90634
Rays              10   11   .561   85.7   76.3   21.34995   25.66949   47.01943
Red Sox           10   12   .583   89.0   73.0   36.92713   27.65864   64.58578

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.5 84.6 79.7 74.9 68.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
White Sox         11   11   .505   80.8   81.2   16.09357    9.90691   26.00048
Tigers            10    8   .551   88.5   73.5   57.94741    9.72543   67.67283
Royals            10   10   .493   78.0   84.0    9.45859    6.36911   15.82770
Twins             10   10   .449   71.7   90.3    2.17440    1.47418    3.64858
Indians           10   11   .508   80.1   81.9   14.32603    8.92480   23.25083

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.0 85.6 80.1 73.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           14    8   .527   86.8   75.2   41.16580   15.56000   56.72579
Athletics         13    8   .525   85.7   76.3   34.20695   15.92380   50.13075
Angels            10   11   .525   82.9   79.1   21.68358   13.57917   35.26275
Mariners           8   13   .469   72.5   89.5    1.99902    2.05018    4.04920
Astros             7   15   .462   69.8   92.2     .94465     .86646    1.81111

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  90.5
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  87.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.0 86.6 80.5 75.3 69.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            14    7   .506   86.8   75.2   30.59135   29.29706   59.88840
Nationals         12   10   .548   91.1   70.9   59.41457   20.83159   80.24616
Mets              11   10   .453   75.9   86.1    3.33245    7.39407   10.72652
Phillies          10   11   .462   75.9   86.1    3.58943    7.34877   10.93820
Marlins           10   12   .464   75.7   86.3    3.07221    7.10486   10.17708

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.5 87.2 81.3 75.4 66.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           16    6   .497   86.4   75.6   26.49973   30.66029   57.16002
Cardinals         12   10   .557   91.6   70.4   59.56175   22.13043   81.69218
Reds              10   11   .497   80.7   81.3    8.77934   18.01735   26.79669
Pirates            9   13   .496   78.2   83.8    4.88472   12.02471   16.90943
Cubs               7   13   .432   67.5   94.5     .27446     .89230    1.16676

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.2 84.2 79.8 75.4 69.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           13    9   .510   85.9   76.1   46.34974   12.16392   58.51367
Giants            12   10   .487   81.5   80.5   21.58493   11.98766   33.57259
Rockies           12   11   .486   80.5   81.5   18.42703   10.35183   28.77886
Padres            10   12   .472   77.4   84.6    9.83335    6.59203   16.42538
Diamondbacks       6   18   .482   73.7   88.3    3.80495    3.20312    7.00806

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  90.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  86.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.