Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Mar 2 16:34:55 EST 2023
Average wins by position in AL East: 97.6 90.6 85.2 79.7 71.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 0 0 .564 90.5 71.5 35.62200 34.70590 70.32790 Blue Jays 0 0 .560 90.0 72.0 33.19410 35.08990 68.28400 Rays 0 0 .531 85.2 76.8 16.12660 31.17030 47.29690 Red Sox 0 0 .524 83.7 78.3 12.56550 28.13380 40.69930 Orioles 0 0 .474 75.4 86.6 2.49180 10.00300 12.49480
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.6 87.1 79.2 70.6 61.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 0 0 .555 90.6 71.4 48.96670 23.65340 72.62010 Twins 0 0 .546 88.8 73.2 39.07240 26.32860 65.40100 White Sox 0 0 .494 80.2 81.8 10.52480 16.73830 27.26310 Tigers 0 0 .423 68.1 93.9 .87100 1.99500 2.86600 Royals 0 0 .415 66.6 95.4 .56510 1.35750 1.92260
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.8 88.1 82.1 75.4 60.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 0 0 .563 91.5 70.5 52.26190 22.68700 74.94890 Mariners 0 0 .520 84.1 77.9 18.49950 24.36230 42.86180 Angels 0 0 .514 83.1 78.9 15.76650 22.75520 38.52170 Rangers 0 0 .507 82.0 80.0 13.35810 20.64310 34.00120 Athletics 0 0 .388 61.6 100.4 .11400 .37670 .49070 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 93.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 89.6 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 99.6 91.9 85.1 76.0 63.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mets 0 0 .572 92.9 69.1 38.61930 42.87260 81.49190 Braves 0 0 .570 92.6 69.4 37.32970 43.50770 80.83740 Phillies 0 0 .547 88.8 73.2 21.51380 45.37890 66.89270 Marlins 0 0 .478 76.9 85.1 2.42720 15.39100 17.81820 Nationals 0 0 .406 64.9 97.1 .11000 1.28860 1.39860
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.7 85.3 77.8 70.8 62.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 0 0 .540 88.7 73.3 48.89060 19.91890 68.80950 Cardinals 0 0 .530 87.1 74.9 39.89290 21.92600 61.81890 Cubs 0 0 .469 76.7 85.3 7.92930 10.56390 18.49320 Pirates 0 0 .428 69.6 92.4 1.90250 3.02120 4.92370 Reds 0 0 .419 68.1 93.9 1.38470 2.18440 3.56910
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.2 88.6 80.5 72.8 63.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 0 0 .563 92.1 69.9 48.36060 31.05240 79.41300 Padres 0 0 .557 90.9 71.1 41.82120 33.60680 75.42800 Giants 0 0 .490 79.6 82.4 7.27150 19.54080 26.81230 Diamondbacks 0 0 .456 73.7 88.3 2.20930 8.14320 10.35250 Rockies 0 0 .411 66.1 95.9 .33740 1.60360 1.94100 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 94.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.7 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 86.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
