Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Oct 1 07:52:28 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.0 91.0 81.0 80.0 74.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 94 68 .573 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Orioles 91 71 .524 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Red Sox 81 81 .549 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 80 82 .460 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 74 88 .491 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.0 86.0 86.0 82.0 41.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 92 69 .519 92.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Royals 86 76 .498 86.0 76.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Tigers 86 76 .475 86.0 76.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Twins 82 80 .541 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 41 121 .351 41.0 121.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 88.0 85.0 78.0 69.0 63.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 88 73 .564 88.0 73.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mariners 85 77 .507 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 78 84 .509 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 69 93 .456 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 63 99 .428 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 91.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.0 89.0 89.0 71.0 62.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 95 67 .573 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mets 89 73 .510 89.0 73.0 .00000 66.67920 66.67920 Braves 89 73 .556 89.0 73.0 .00000 66.63350 66.63350 Nationals 71 91 .433 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 62 100 .395 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.0 83.0 83.0 77.0 76.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 93 69 .493 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cardinals 83 79 .487 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 83 79 .520 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 77 85 .465 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 76 86 .489 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.0 93.0 89.0 80.0 61.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 98 64 .602 98.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Padres 93 69 .544 93.0 69.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Diamondbacks 89 73 .568 89.0 73.0 .00000 66.68730 66.68730 Giants 80 82 .488 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 61 101 .415 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 93.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 89.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
