Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Mon Aug 10 07:52:40 EDT 2020
Average wins by position in AL East: 36.0 32.1 29.4 26.9 23.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 10 6 .548 34.9 25.1 65.56058 14.30050 79.86108 Rays 8 8 .510 30.9 29.1 17.95631 20.66395 38.62026 Orioles 7 7 .433 26.1 32.9 3.06040 4.72490 7.78530 Red Sox 6 9 .483 27.8 32.2 5.34968 7.95390 13.30358 Blue Jays 5 8 .480 28.5 31.5 8.07304 9.90837 17.98141
Average wins by position in AL Central: 36.3 33.3 30.9 28.2 25.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 10 6 .532 33.8 26.2 44.03338 25.60533 69.63871 Indians 10 7 .489 31.9 28.1 22.37689 26.89194 49.26883 Tigers 8 5 .440 28.3 31.7 6.70321 10.63741 17.34062 White Sox 8 8 .530 32.5 28.5 24.21380 26.60900 50.82280 Royals 7 10 .462 27.0 33.0 2.67273 6.03973 8.71246
Average wins by position in AL west: 35.6 31.8 28.7 26.0 22.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 12 4 .512 34.2 25.8 61.13889 14.71167 75.85057 Rangers 6 8 .471 27.0 33.0 4.85549 5.15828 10.01377 Astros 6 9 .561 31.7 28.3 28.67159 20.30846 48.98005 Mariners 6 11 .453 24.9 35.1 1.31121 1.61018 2.92139 Angels 5 11 .507 27.0 33.0 4.02281 4.87638 8.89919 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 34.1 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 32.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 36.2 32.6 30.1 27.6 24.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 11 6 .548 35.0 25.0 60.92458 13.91356 74.83815 Marlins 7 3 .430 27.8 32.2 5.52042 5.37909 10.89951 Mets 7 9 .538 30.9 29.1 15.04282 16.26518 31.30799 Phillies 4 6 .481 27.7 32.3 5.07718 5.48769 10.56487 Nationals 4 7 .533 29.5 29.5 13.43500 11.22640 24.66140
Average wins by position in NL Central: 35.5 32.3 29.5 26.1 21.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 10 3 .529 33.4 23.6 58.17800 15.78310 73.96110 Reds 7 9 .551 31.7 28.3 21.15795 18.63526 39.79321 Brewers 6 7 .510 30.4 29.6 13.40347 13.56591 26.96938 Pirates 3 13 .438 21.7 38.3 .11685 .12342 .24027 Cardinals 2 3 .478 27.1 30.9 7.14373 8.27255 15.41628
Average wins by position in NL West: 37.9 34.1 31.1 27.9 24.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rockies 11 4 .495 32.6 27.4 17.94511 29.44898 47.39409 Dodgers 11 5 .578 36.6 23.4 62.75792 22.71290 85.47082 Padres 9 7 .543 32.7 27.3 17.59015 31.65598 49.24613 Giants 7 10 .454 26.4 33.6 .65817 3.32175 3.97992 Diamondbacks 6 10 .474 26.8 33.2 1.04867 4.20822 5.25689 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 35.1 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 33.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
