Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Tue Jun 27 08:02:14 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 90.0 85.7 82.4 79.2 75.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Red Sox 42 34 .532 86.4 75.6 41.28098 21.41492 62.69589 Yankees 41 33 .532 85.9 76.1 36.77777 21.82207 58.59984 Rays 40 38 .519 81.7 80.3 11.53685 14.51873 26.05559 Orioles 37 38 .511 79.8 82.2 6.03125 10.07029 16.10154 Blue Jays 36 39 .509 78.5 83.5 4.37315 6.35382 10.72697
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.6 84.0 78.6 74.1 68.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Indians 40 35 .562 89.6 72.4 75.96064 10.17624 86.13687 Twins 39 35 .512 83.7 78.3 19.43705 22.69084 42.12788 Royals 37 37 .453 75.7 86.3 1.60345 2.51775 4.12120 Tigers 33 42 .507 77.0 85.0 2.89909 3.81153 6.71062 White Sox 32 43 .444 69.7 92.3 .09978 .13854 .23832
Average wins by position in AL west: 103.4 87.4 81.6 77.5 73.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 52 25 .611 103.4 58.6 99.00062 .97491 99.97552 Angels 41 39 .476 77.7 84.3 .01503 6.93007 6.94510 Mariners 39 39 .572 86.3 75.7 .92403 60.57777 61.50180 Rangers 38 38 .499 79.7 82.3 .05275 14.28562 14.33837 Athletics 34 42 .506 75.9 86.1 .00757 3.71691 3.72448 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.6 80.4 75.7 71.3 65.1 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 45 31 .531 92.4 69.6 95.99341 .85857 96.85197 Braves 36 39 .420 72.3 89.7 .23918 .42739 .66657 Marlins 34 40 .462 76.1 85.9 1.43774 2.17231 3.61005 Mets 34 41 .498 77.9 84.1 2.32023 4.13534 6.45556 Phillies 24 51 .468 66.3 95.7 .00945 .01038 .01983
Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.3 84.1 80.0 75.1 69.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 41 37 .502 83.2 78.8 22.99217 10.41876 33.41093 Cubs 39 37 .548 87.5 74.5 62.62948 7.85715 70.48663 Cardinals 35 40 .512 80.9 81.1 12.15306 7.01656 19.16962 Pirates 35 41 .465 75.5 86.5 2.00546 1.22377 3.22923 Reds 31 44 .448 70.3 91.7 .21984 .14789 .36773
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.7 93.0 86.8 70.5 64.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 51 27 .570 101.2 60.8 87.45537 12.43919 99.89456 Diamondbacks 49 28 .501 91.9 70.1 9.97032 81.24602 91.21633 Rockies 47 32 .472 88.3 73.7 2.57387 71.98348 74.55735 Padres 31 45 .407 66.4 95.6 .00030 .01568 .01598 Giants 28 51 .473 68.5 93.5 .00015 .04751 .04766 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 93.1 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 87.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
