Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Sep 30 07:54:54 EDT 2019


Average wins by position in AL East:  103.0 96.0 84.0 67.0 54.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees          103   59   .560  103.0   59.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Rays              96   66   .544   96.0   66.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Red Sox           84   78   .548   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         67   95   .486   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Orioles           54  108   .427   54.0  108.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  101.0 93.0 72.0 59.0 47.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins            101   61   .546  101.0   61.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Indians           93   69   .520   93.0   69.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         72   89   .460   72.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            59  103   .444   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            47  114   .441   47.0  114.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  107.0 97.0 78.0 72.0 68.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros           107   55   .594  107.0   55.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Athletics         97   65   .527   97.0   65.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rangers           78   84   .451   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Angels            72   90   .503   72.0   90.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mariners          68   94   .484   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  97.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  96.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.0 93.0 86.0 81.0 57.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            97   65   .527   97.0   65.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Nationals         93   69   .519   93.0   69.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Mets              86   76   .504   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          81   81   .504   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Marlins           57  105   .420   57.0  105.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.0 89.0 84.0 75.0 69.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         91   71   .483   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Brewers           89   73   .516   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Cubs              84   78   .514   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              75   87   .519   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           69   93   .476   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  106.0 85.0 77.0 71.0 70.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers          106   56   .539  106.0   56.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Diamondbacks      85   77   .495   85.0   77.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Giants            77   85   .440   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rockies           71   91   .498   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            70   92   .498   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.