Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Apr 3 07:52:36 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.0 87.0 82.6 78.1 72.2 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 5 2 .493 81.1 80.9 14.43320 24.20230 38.63550 Rays 4 2 .488 79.7 82.3 11.62330 21.11360 32.73690 Yankees 3 2 .525 85.8 76.2 32.12250 28.83720 60.95970 Orioles 3 3 .510 83.0 79.0 20.33260 27.58810 47.92070 Red Sox 2 4 .519 83.3 78.7 21.48840 27.77110 49.25950
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.7 84.1 78.8 72.7 59.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Twins 2 4 .523 85.0 77.0 40.83110 18.95170 59.78280 Guardians 2 4 .495 80.7 81.3 21.08570 17.64440 38.73010 Tigers 2 4 .490 80.4 81.6 20.27050 17.10640 37.37690 Royals 2 4 .490 79.7 82.3 17.68290 16.23040 33.91330 White Sox 2 4 .373 59.7 102.3 .12980 .21490 .34470
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.1 86.3 80.6 74.0 64.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Rangers 5 2 .520 86.2 75.8 34.67210 29.14140 63.81350 Angels 4 2 .458 75.3 86.7 4.93570 11.52670 16.46240 Mariners 3 4 .523 84.4 77.6 26.22150 28.82040 55.04190 Astros 2 4 .529 86.0 76.0 33.57440 28.82220 62.39660 Athletics 2 5 .417 66.9 95.1 .59630 2.02920 2.62550 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 86.8 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 100.2 92.8 85.7 72.8 57.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 4 1 .570 92.9 69.1 33.52180 40.15870 73.68050 Marlins 4 3 .366 58.5 103.5 .00300 .03310 .03610 Mets 3 3 .565 90.3 71.7 22.27300 40.40250 62.67550 Nationals 1 5 .467 72.8 89.2 .47330 3.41360 3.88690 Braves 0 7 .608 94.8 67.2 43.72890 37.46710 81.19600
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.9 86.4 80.9 75.4 68.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 5 4 .556 90.5 71.5 56.43870 12.31080 68.74950 Cardinals 4 2 .503 81.4 80.6 14.13280 10.63370 24.76650 Brewers 2 4 .529 83.9 78.1 21.70970 13.65800 35.36770 Reds 2 4 .483 76.3 85.7 5.28120 4.83160 10.11280 Pirates 2 5 .465 72.9 89.1 2.43760 2.37030 4.80790
Average wins by position in NL West: 107.7 94.7 86.5 78.2 51.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 8 0 .639 106.8 55.2 85.19770 13.65320 98.85090 Padres 7 0 .510 85.3 76.7 2.39910 35.15370 37.55280 Giants 5 1 .498 82.2 79.8 1.19730 23.52920 24.72650 Diamondbacks 4 2 .571 92.8 69.2 11.20590 62.38270 73.58860 Rockies 1 4 .335 51.6 110.4 .00000 .00180 .00180 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 97.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 92.4 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 89.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
