Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Apr 17 08:04:03 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.1 89.3 84.9 80.6 74.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 9 6 .544 85.5 76.5 20.08023 25.92400 46.00423 Blue Jays 8 6 .523 81.8 80.2 10.08832 18.14818 28.23650 Orioles 7 7 .531 82.1 79.9 10.65143 18.83059 29.48201 Rays 7 8 .561 86.2 75.8 23.06482 26.51774 49.58256 Red Sox 6 9 .583 89.0 73.0 36.11521 27.75757 63.87279
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.0 84.8 79.7 74.5 67.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs White Sox 8 7 .505 80.8 81.2 16.61617 10.28575 26.90192 Indians 7 7 .508 80.8 81.2 16.56778 10.24510 26.81288 Tigers 6 5 .551 88.5 73.5 55.78088 10.44715 66.22803 Royals 6 7 .493 77.6 84.4 9.13598 6.45983 15.59581 Twins 6 7 .449 70.6 91.4 1.89919 1.38739 3.28658
Average wins by position in AL west: 91.7 85.3 80.1 74.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Athletics 10 5 .525 86.1 75.9 39.60643 13.41548 53.02191 Rangers 8 7 .527 84.5 77.5 31.25222 13.20214 44.45437 Mariners 7 7 .469 75.0 87.0 4.86559 3.94264 8.80823 Angels 7 8 .525 82.5 79.5 22.40974 12.03156 34.44130 Astros 5 10 .462 70.8 91.2 1.86602 1.40486 3.27088 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 90.7 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 87.5
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.7 86.6 80.0 74.5 68.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Braves 10 4 .506 86.6 75.4 28.62247 29.42334 58.04581 Nationals 9 6 .548 91.9 70.1 62.05612 19.72603 81.78214 Mets 8 7 .453 75.7 86.3 3.53146 7.75888 11.29033 Phillies 6 8 .462 75.0 87.0 3.20452 6.71794 9.92246 Marlins 6 10 .464 74.6 87.4 2.58544 6.11980 8.70524
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.8 87.0 81.2 75.3 65.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 11 4 .497 85.0 77.0 21.19038 27.80119 48.99156 Cardinals 9 6 .557 92.1 69.9 62.50999 19.60337 82.11337 Pirates 7 8 .496 80.0 82.0 8.31284 16.54290 24.85574 Reds 6 9 .497 79.6 82.4 7.61978 15.86263 23.48240 Cubs 4 10 .432 67.4 94.6 .36702 1.09955 1.46657
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.9 84.6 80.0 75.4 69.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Giants 10 5 .487 82.8 79.2 26.64099 13.82443 40.46542 Dodgers 9 6 .510 85.9 76.1 43.09396 13.69777 56.79173 Padres 7 8 .472 77.8 84.2 10.92870 7.85022 18.77892 Rockies 7 9 .486 79.3 82.7 14.45030 9.58839 24.03869 Diamondbacks 4 14 .482 74.6 87.4 4.88605 4.38356 9.26960 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 90.2 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 86.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
