Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Aug 10 07:52:40 EDT 2020


Average wins by position in AL East:  36.0 32.1 29.4 26.9 23.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           10    6   .548   34.9   25.1   65.56058   14.30050   79.86108
Rays               8    8   .510   30.9   29.1   17.95631   20.66395   38.62026
Orioles            7    7   .433   26.1   32.9    3.06040    4.72490    7.78530
Red Sox            6    9   .483   27.8   32.2    5.34968    7.95390   13.30358
Blue Jays          5    8   .480   28.5   31.5    8.07304    9.90837   17.98141

Average wins by position in AL Central:  36.3 33.3 30.9 28.2 25.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Twins             10    6   .532   33.8   26.2   44.03338   25.60533   69.63871
Indians           10    7   .489   31.9   28.1   22.37689   26.89194   49.26883
Tigers             8    5   .440   28.3   31.7    6.70321   10.63741   17.34062
White Sox          8    8   .530   32.5   28.5   24.21380   26.60900   50.82280
Royals             7   10   .462   27.0   33.0    2.67273    6.03973    8.71246

Average wins by position in AL west:  35.6 31.8 28.7 26.0 22.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Athletics         12    4   .512   34.2   25.8   61.13889   14.71167   75.85057
Rangers            6    8   .471   27.0   33.0    4.85549    5.15828   10.01377
Astros             6    9   .561   31.7   28.3   28.67159   20.30846   48.98005
Mariners           6   11   .453   24.9   35.1    1.31121    1.61018    2.92139
Angels             5   11   .507   27.0   33.0    4.02281    4.87638    8.89919

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  34.1
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  32.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  36.2 32.6 30.1 27.6 24.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Braves            11    6   .548   35.0   25.0   60.92458   13.91356   74.83815
Marlins            7    3   .430   27.8   32.2    5.52042    5.37909   10.89951
Mets               7    9   .538   30.9   29.1   15.04282   16.26518   31.30799
Phillies           4    6   .481   27.7   32.3    5.07718    5.48769   10.56487
Nationals          4    7   .533   29.5   29.5   13.43500   11.22640   24.66140

Average wins by position in NL Central:  35.5 32.3 29.5 26.1 21.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              10    3   .529   33.4   23.6   58.17800   15.78310   73.96110
Reds               7    9   .551   31.7   28.3   21.15795   18.63526   39.79321
Brewers            6    7   .510   30.4   29.6   13.40347   13.56591   26.96938
Pirates            3   13   .438   21.7   38.3     .11685     .12342     .24027
Cardinals          2    3   .478   27.1   30.9    7.14373    8.27255   15.41628

Average wins by position in NL West:  37.9 34.1 31.1 27.9 24.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rockies           11    4   .495   32.6   27.4   17.94511   29.44898   47.39409
Dodgers           11    5   .578   36.6   23.4   62.75792   22.71290   85.47082
Padres             9    7   .543   32.7   27.3   17.59015   31.65598   49.24613
Giants             7   10   .454   26.4   33.6     .65817    3.32175    3.97992
Diamondbacks       6   10   .474   26.8   33.2    1.04867    4.20822    5.25689

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  35.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  33.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.