Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Oct 8 07:53:21 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.0 94.0 89.0 77.0 75.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Blue Jays 94 68 .539 94.0 68.0 49.80130 50.19870 100.00000 Yankees 94 68 .559 94.0 68.0 50.19870 49.80130 100.00000 Red Sox 89 73 .540 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Rays 77 85 .469 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 75 87 .468 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.0 87.0 82.0 70.0 60.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Guardians 88 74 .449 88.0 74.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Tigers 87 75 .514 87.0 75.0 .00000 49.93370 49.93370 Royals 82 80 .467 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 70 92 .477 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 60 102 .414 60.0 102.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 90.0 87.0 81.0 76.0 72.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Mariners 90 72 .564 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Astros 87 75 .528 87.0 75.0 .00000 50.06630 50.06630 Rangers 81 81 .466 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 76 86 .473 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 72 90 .452 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 94.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.0 83.0 79.0 76.0 66.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 96 66 .581 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Mets 83 79 .573 83.0 79.0 .00000 49.97250 49.97250 Marlins 79 83 .405 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 76 86 .524 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 66 96 .444 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.0 92.0 83.0 78.0 71.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Brewers 97 65 .547 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Cubs 92 70 .562 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Reds 83 79 .485 83.0 79.0 .00000 50.02750 50.02750 Cardinals 78 84 .481 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 71 91 .460 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.0 90.0 81.0 80.0 43.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 93 69 .630 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Padres 90 72 .548 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Giants 81 81 .467 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 80 82 .507 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 43 119 .396 43.0 119.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 92.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 90.0 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 83.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
