Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Oct 4 08:01:05 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 89.0 89.0 84.0 68.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           93   69   .524   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Blue Jays         89   73   .562   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Orioles           89   73   .517   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Yankees           84   78   .499   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rays              68   94   .507   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.0 86.0 81.0 78.0 59.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           94   67   .540   94.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Tigers            86   75   .515   86.0   75.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Royals            81   81   .493   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         78   84   .499   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Twins             59  103   .503   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.0 86.0 84.0 74.0 69.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Rangers           95   67   .512   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mariners          86   76   .549   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Astros            84   78   .564   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Angels            74   88   .506   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         69   93   .504   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.0 87.0 79.0 71.0 68.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         95   67   .517   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Mets              87   75   .525   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Marlins           79   82   .496   79.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          71   91   .418   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Braves            68   93   .409   68.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.0 86.0 78.0 73.0 68.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs             103   58   .544  103.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Cardinals         86   76   .496   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           78   83   .509   78.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Brewers           73   89   .440   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              68   94   .426   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.0 87.0 75.0 69.0 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           91   71   .554   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Giants            87   75   .515   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rockies           75   87   .443   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Diamondbacks      69   93   .458   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Padres            68   94   .449   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  87.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.