Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***
Generated Wed Oct 1 07:27:09 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.0 84.0 83.0 77.0 71.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Orioles 96 66 .502 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Yankees 84 78 .486 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 83 79 .509 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 77 85 .522 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 71 91 .522 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.0 89.0 85.0 73.0 70.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 90 72 .540 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Royals 89 73 .498 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Indians 85 77 .493 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 73 89 .504 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 70 92 .478 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.0 88.0 87.0 70.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Angels 98 64 .516 98.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Athletics 88 74 .548 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Mariners 87 75 .518 87.0 75.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 70 92 .490 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 67 95 .467 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 89.0 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 88.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.0 79.0 79.0 77.0 73.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Nationals 96 66 .547 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Braves 79 83 .499 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 79 83 .475 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 77 85 .489 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 73 89 .447 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.0 88.0 82.0 76.0 73.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cardinals 90 72 .522 90.0 72.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Pirates 88 74 .506 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Brewers 82 80 .523 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 76 86 .483 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 73 89 .477 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.0 88.0 77.0 66.0 64.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 94 68 .526 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 Giants 88 74 .496 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 Padres 77 85 .464 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 66 96 .504 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 64 98 .451 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 88.0 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 88.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
