Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sat Aug 1 08:01:37 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  89.5 84.9 81.8 78.8 75.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees           58   44   .514   88.3   73.7   68.16920   17.57547   85.74466
Blue Jays         53   51   .532   83.7   78.3   19.19275   28.56240   47.75515
Orioles           52   50   .512   81.9   80.1    9.03197   21.12889   30.16085
Rays              51   53   .500   79.1   82.9    2.65336    8.81694   11.47030
Red Sox           46   58   .538   76.9   85.1     .95273    3.23160    4.18433

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.0 84.2 81.1 78.4 75.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Royals            61   41   .503   90.7   71.3   87.61181    7.48989   95.10170
Twins             53   49   .495   81.9   80.1    5.90543   24.51120   30.41662
Tigers            50   53   .512   79.9   82.1    2.99664   12.52493   15.52157
White Sox         49   52   .499   79.4   82.6    2.32254   10.95579   13.27833
Indians           48   54   .510   78.1   83.9    1.16358    6.89296    8.05654

Average wins by position in AL west:  89.7 84.3 79.9 76.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            58   46   .536   89.0   73.0   76.87473   13.84984   90.72456
Angels            55   47   .496   84.0   78.0   18.80726   32.44532   51.25258
Rangers           50   52   .490   79.5   82.5    3.74986    9.98158   13.73144
Mariners          47   57   .490   75.1   86.9     .33293    1.27310    1.60602
Athletics         45   59   .510   74.3   87.7     .23523     .76009     .99533

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  86.7
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  84.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  89.8 82.6 75.1 70.2 63.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         54   47   .554   89.4   72.6   85.80369    3.77737   89.58105
Mets              53   50   .493   82.8   79.2   13.90199   11.63177   25.53376
Braves            46   57   .456   74.0   88.0     .24468     .24295     .48762
Marlins           42   61   .478   71.0   91.0     .04944     .02014     .06959
Phillies          40   64   .412   64.3   97.7     .00020     .00000     .00020

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.9 91.4 85.5 76.2 71.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cardinals         66   37   .525   97.3   64.7   82.63646   17.05029   99.68674
Pirates           60   42   .522   91.3   70.7   15.57936   76.25862   91.83797
Cubs              55   47   .509   86.1   75.9    1.78236   53.93389   55.71625
Reds              46   55   .474   74.7   87.3     .00159     .57653     .57813
Brewers           44   60   .490   72.7   89.3     .00023     .12713     .12736

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.4 84.7 80.2 76.6 71.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           58   45   .549   91.0   71.0   85.66042    6.80256   92.46298
Giants            56   46   .475   84.1   77.9   12.06159   23.30457   35.36616
Diamondbacks      50   51   .477   79.0   83.0    1.49115    4.13522    5.62637
Padres            50   53   .454   77.8   84.2     .74575    1.98556    2.73130
Rockies           43   58   .486   72.8   89.2     .04110     .15341     .19451

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  91.6
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.