Playing the rest of the season a million times
with some help from my forecasts
by Clay Davenport
See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).
*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***
Generated Thu Jun 26 07:53:13 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.0 86.4 82.3 78.4 73.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Yankees 46 34 .561 92.3 69.7 80.05240 16.50910 96.56150 Rays 45 35 .490 84.6 77.4 11.68380 49.59620 61.28000 Blue Jays 42 37 .485 82.4 79.6 6.37060 36.70180 43.07240 Red Sox 40 42 .490 79.2 82.8 1.65630 17.86470 19.52100 Orioles 34 46 .499 74.8 87.2 .23690 4.11580 4.35270
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.9 84.7 80.5 75.9 57.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Tigers 50 31 .515 92.4 69.6 87.33910 9.55440 96.89350 Guardians 40 38 .486 82.1 79.9 6.50450 34.19300 40.69750 Twins 38 42 .515 81.2 80.8 4.72890 28.47070 33.19960 Royals 38 42 .487 78.3 83.7 1.42750 14.06220 15.48970 White Sox 26 55 .397 57.8 104.2 .00000 .00010 .00010
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.0 85.3 80.2 75.2 69.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Astros 47 33 .535 91.2 70.8 79.10490 15.87530 94.98020 Mariners 41 38 .522 84.6 77.4 16.29740 45.63680 61.93420 Angels 40 40 .438 75.7 86.3 .65850 5.66630 6.32480 Rangers 40 41 .494 80.1 81.9 3.91190 21.32760 25.23950 Athletics 33 49 .466 70.1 91.9 .02730 .42600 .45330 Average wins by AL First Wild Card: 88.4 Average wins by AL Second Wild Card: 85.8 Average wins by AL Third Wild Card: 84.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.7 89.6 83.5 71.9 64.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Phillies 47 33 .556 92.5 69.5 55.85540 33.02380 88.87920 Mets 47 34 .541 90.9 71.1 38.45770 43.11220 81.56990 Braves 37 42 .565 84.3 77.7 5.67990 25.73840 31.41830 Marlins 33 45 .395 65.2 96.8 .00020 .00260 .00280 Nationals 33 48 .473 71.2 90.8 .00680 .10910 .11590
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.4 88.3 84.1 79.0 69.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Cubs 47 33 .564 93.5 68.5 75.67850 16.61180 92.29030 Brewers 45 36 .510 85.8 76.2 10.63860 32.46770 43.10630 Cardinals 44 37 .518 86.2 75.8 12.40260 34.12200 46.52460 Reds 42 39 .478 80.1 81.9 1.27860 7.89730 9.17590 Pirates 32 50 .468 69.4 92.6 .00170 .03000 .03170
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.5 89.1 84.8 80.4 48.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs Dodgers 50 31 .627 101.4 60.6 97.42390 2.41350 99.83740 Giants 44 36 .512 85.0 77.0 .99880 36.16780 37.16660 Padres 44 36 .486 83.7 78.3 .47230 26.54160 27.01390 Diamondbacks 41 39 .538 85.7 76.3 1.10500 41.76220 42.86720 Rockies 18 62 .377 48.5 113.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL First Wild Card: 91.9 Average wins by NL Second Wild Card: 89.3 Average wins by NL Third Wild Card: 87.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.
W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
