Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Sun Jan 31 18:26:35 EST 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.0 87.7 82.2 76.6 68.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Blue Jays          0    0   .562   89.2   72.8   43.67311   18.46388   62.13699
Red Sox            0    0   .530   83.3   78.7   19.20564   16.64052   35.84616
Yankees            0    0   .531   83.1   78.9   18.73613   16.36023   35.09636
Rays               0    0   .524   82.1   79.9   15.81039   14.95669   30.76709
Orioles            0    0   .470   72.3   89.7    2.57473    3.52491    6.09964

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.7 85.8 80.5 75.2 68.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians            0    0   .536   85.4   76.6   35.55268   12.26803   47.82072
White Sox          0    0   .528   83.6   78.4   27.72226   11.94029   39.66255
Tigers             0    0   .509   80.4   81.6   17.25662    9.37972   26.63634
Twins              0    0   .501   79.3   82.7   14.47279    8.32649   22.79928
Royals             0    0   .470   73.4   88.6    4.99565    3.45814    8.45379

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.6 88.6 83.3 78.0 70.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mariners           0    0   .564   88.7   73.3   37.28199   21.72783   59.00982
Astros             0    0   .549   85.8   76.2   25.01619   20.95254   45.96873
Angels             0    0   .544   84.3   77.7   20.15652   19.53457   39.69109
Athletics          0    0   .526   81.5   80.5   12.98626   15.33512   28.32138
Rangers            0    0   .490   75.8   86.2    4.55904    7.13102   11.69006

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.6
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.4 88.9 78.7 69.2 60.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets               0    0   .550   93.8   68.2   53.47828   23.79319   77.27146
Nationals          0    0   .537   91.7   70.3   41.01181   28.04524   69.05704
Marlins            0    0   .460   78.1   83.9    4.90126    9.40697   14.30823
Braves             0    0   .396   66.7   95.3     .37588     .88081    1.25670
Phillies           0    0   .386   64.9   97.1     .23278     .56639     .79917

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.5 88.6 81.3 72.6 63.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs               0    0   .560   93.9   68.1   59.13768   17.96129   77.09896
Cardinals          0    0   .512   85.9   76.1   20.66458   22.07265   42.73722
Pirates            0    0   .509   85.2   76.8   18.46173   20.99386   39.45560
Brewers            0    0   .422   69.8   92.2     .98123    1.87960    2.86082
Reds               0    0   .416   68.7   93.3     .75479    1.46190    2.21669

Average wins by position in NL West:  99.2 89.9 80.6 72.3 61.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .565   95.1   66.9   56.13608   24.66637   80.80244
Giants             0    0   .546   91.7   70.3   37.07883   31.59112   68.66995
Diamondbacks       0    0   .472   78.8   83.2    4.80116   11.18501   15.98617
Padres             0    0   .446   74.3   87.7    1.87719    5.14935    7.02654
Rockies            0    0   .381   63.0   99.0     .10675     .34624     .45299

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  94.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.