Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Mon Oct 2 08:03:50 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 91.0 80.0 76.0 75.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           93   69   .548   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Yankees           91   71   .530   91.0   71.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rays              80   82   .498   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Blue Jays         76   86   .488   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Orioles           75   87   .507   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  102.0 85.0 80.0 67.0 64.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians          102   60   .558  102.0   60.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Twins             85   77   .501   85.0   77.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Royals            80   82   .499   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
White Sox         67   95   .432   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Tigers            64   98   .480   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  101.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 75.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros           101   61   .612  101.0   61.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Angels            80   82   .501   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mariners          78   84   .527   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Rangers           78   84   .501   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Athletics         75   87   .475   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  91.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  85.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.0 77.0 72.0 70.0 66.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         97   65   .513   97.0   65.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Marlins           77   85   .465   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Braves            72   90   .456   72.0   90.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Mets              70   92   .502   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Phillies          66   96   .470   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.0 86.0 83.0 75.0 68.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Cubs              92   70   .541   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Brewers           86   76   .496   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Cardinals         83   79   .515   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Pirates           75   87   .486   75.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Reds              68   94   .455   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  104.0 93.0 87.0 71.0 64.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers          104   58   .569  104.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000
Diamondbacks      93   69   .506   93.0   69.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Rockies           87   75   .492   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000
Padres            71   91   .415   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000
Giants            64   98   .452   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.0
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.