Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with 2! 2! 2 wild cards per league ***

Generated Tue Jun 27 08:02:14 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  90.0 85.7 82.4 79.2 75.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Red Sox           42   34   .532   86.4   75.6   41.28098   21.41492   62.69589
Yankees           41   33   .532   85.9   76.1   36.77777   21.82207   58.59984
Rays              40   38   .519   81.7   80.3   11.53685   14.51873   26.05559
Orioles           37   38   .511   79.8   82.2    6.03125   10.07029   16.10154
Blue Jays         36   39   .509   78.5   83.5    4.37315    6.35382   10.72697

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.6 84.0 78.6 74.1 68.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Indians           40   35   .562   89.6   72.4   75.96064   10.17624   86.13687
Twins             39   35   .512   83.7   78.3   19.43705   22.69084   42.12788
Royals            37   37   .453   75.7   86.3    1.60345    2.51775    4.12120
Tigers            33   42   .507   77.0   85.0    2.89909    3.81153    6.71062
White Sox         32   43   .444   69.7   92.3     .09978     .13854     .23832

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.4 87.4 81.6 77.5 73.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros            52   25   .611  103.4   58.6   99.00062     .97491   99.97552
Angels            41   39   .476   77.7   84.3     .01503    6.93007    6.94510
Mariners          39   39   .572   86.3   75.7     .92403   60.57777   61.50180
Rangers           38   38   .499   79.7   82.3     .05275   14.28562   14.33837
Athletics         34   42   .506   75.9   86.1     .00757    3.71691    3.72448

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  89.0
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  86.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.6 80.4 75.7 71.3 65.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Nationals         45   31   .531   92.4   69.6   95.99341     .85857   96.85197
Braves            36   39   .420   72.3   89.7     .23918     .42739     .66657
Marlins           34   40   .462   76.1   85.9    1.43774    2.17231    3.61005
Mets              34   41   .498   77.9   84.1    2.32023    4.13534    6.45556
Phillies          24   51   .468   66.3   95.7     .00945     .01038     .01983

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.3 84.1 80.0 75.1 69.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers           41   37   .502   83.2   78.8   22.99217   10.41876   33.41093
Cubs              39   37   .548   87.5   74.5   62.62948    7.85715   70.48663
Cardinals         35   40   .512   80.9   81.1   12.15306    7.01656   19.16962
Pirates           35   41   .465   75.5   86.5    2.00546    1.22377    3.22923
Reds              31   44   .448   70.3   91.7     .21984     .14789     .36773

Average wins by position in NL West:  101.7 93.0 86.8 70.5 64.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers           51   27   .570  101.2   60.8   87.45537   12.43919   99.89456
Diamondbacks      49   28   .501   91.9   70.1    9.97032   81.24602   91.21633
Rockies           47   32   .472   88.3   73.7    2.57387   71.98348   74.55735
Padres            31   45   .407   66.4   95.6     .00030     .01568     .01598
Giants            28   51   .473   68.5   93.5     .00015     .04751     .04766

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  93.1
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  87.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.