Postseason Odds, Forecast version

Playing the rest of the season a million times

with some help from my forecasts

by Clay Davenport

See the original version of this report, based entirely on real data (no projections).

*** Now with ** 3 ** wild cards per league ***

Generated Thu Mar 2 16:34:55 EST 2023


Average wins by position in AL East:  97.6 90.6 85.2 79.7 71.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Yankees            0    0   .564   90.5   71.5   35.62200   34.70590   70.32790
Blue Jays          0    0   .560   90.0   72.0   33.19410   35.08990   68.28400
Rays               0    0   .531   85.2   76.8   16.12660   31.17030   47.29690
Red Sox            0    0   .524   83.7   78.3   12.56550   28.13380   40.69930
Orioles            0    0   .474   75.4   86.6    2.49180   10.00300   12.49480

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.6 87.1 79.2 70.6 61.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Guardians          0    0   .555   90.6   71.4   48.96670   23.65340   72.62010
Twins              0    0   .546   88.8   73.2   39.07240   26.32860   65.40100
White Sox          0    0   .494   80.2   81.8   10.52480   16.73830   27.26310
Tigers             0    0   .423   68.1   93.9     .87100    1.99500    2.86600
Royals             0    0   .415   66.6   95.4     .56510    1.35750    1.92260

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.8 88.1 82.1 75.4 60.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Astros             0    0   .563   91.5   70.5   52.26190   22.68700   74.94890
Mariners           0    0   .520   84.1   77.9   18.49950   24.36230   42.86180
Angels             0    0   .514   83.1   78.9   15.76650   22.75520   38.52170
Rangers            0    0   .507   82.0   80.0   13.35810   20.64310   34.00120
Athletics          0    0   .388   61.6  100.4     .11400     .37670     .49070

Average wins by AL First Wild Card:  93.4
Average wins by AL Second Wild Card:  89.6
Average wins by AL Third Wild Card:  87.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  99.6 91.9 85.1 76.0 63.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Mets               0    0   .572   92.9   69.1   38.61930   42.87260   81.49190
Braves             0    0   .570   92.6   69.4   37.32970   43.50770   80.83740
Phillies           0    0   .547   88.8   73.2   21.51380   45.37890   66.89270
Marlins            0    0   .478   76.9   85.1    2.42720   15.39100   17.81820
Nationals          0    0   .406   64.9   97.1     .11000    1.28860    1.39860

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.7 85.3 77.8 70.8 62.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Brewers            0    0   .540   88.7   73.3   48.89060   19.91890   68.80950
Cardinals          0    0   .530   87.1   74.9   39.89290   21.92600   61.81890
Cubs               0    0   .469   76.7   85.3    7.92930   10.56390   18.49320
Pirates            0    0   .428   69.6   92.4    1.90250    3.02120    4.92370
Reds               0    0   .419   68.1   93.9    1.38470    2.18440    3.56910

Average wins by position in NL West:  97.2 88.6 80.5 72.8 63.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs
Dodgers            0    0   .563   92.1   69.9   48.36060   31.05240   79.41300
Padres             0    0   .557   90.9   71.1   41.82120   33.60680   75.42800
Giants             0    0   .490   79.6   82.4    7.27150   19.54080   26.81230
Diamondbacks       0    0   .456   73.7   88.3    2.20930    8.14320   10.35250
Rockies            0    0   .411   66.1   95.9     .33740    1.60360    1.94100

Average wins by NL First Wild Card:  94.2
Average wins by NL Second Wild Card:  89.7
Average wins by NL Third Wild Card:  86.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) is being driven entirely by the projections of player performance on our depth charts. The performances of every player on a team are combined to derive total team runs scored and allowed, which are averaged and normalized on a league basis, and used to calculate a won/lost record. The disadvantage of this approach is that the team's rating is entirely based on a projection of player performance. The advantage is that it can immediately respond to changes in the team's lineup, due to injury or trade. However, we still allow for uncertainty in the EWP by sampling a normal distribution centered on the EWP for each "seasonal" run. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method.

W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.