Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Oct 2 08:03:47 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  108.0 100.0 90.0 73.0 47.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox          108   54   .603  108.0   54.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Yankees          100   62   .591  100.0   62.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Rays              90   72   .583   90.0   72.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Blue Jays         73   89   .439   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Orioles           47  115   .364   47.0  115.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.0 78.0 64.0 62.0 58.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           91   71   .551   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             78   84   .434   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            64   98   .390   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
White Sox         62  100   .397   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Royals            58  104   .383   58.0  104.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.0 97.0 89.0 80.0 67.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros           103   59   .637  103.0   59.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         97   65   .581   97.0   65.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mariners          89   73   .508   89.0   73.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Angels            80   82   .503   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           67   95   .431   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  100.0 97.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.0 82.0 80.0 77.0 63.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            90   72   .559   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         82   80   .549   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          80   82   .480   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              77   85   .483   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           63   98   .398   63.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.0 95.0 88.0 82.0 67.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           96   67   .564   96.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .24429
Cubs              95   68   .547   95.0   68.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .02184
Cardinals         88   74   .521   88.0   74.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -54.98899
Pirates           82   79   .495   82.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              67   95   .453   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.0 91.0 82.0 73.0 66.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           92   71   .630   92.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000   5.84473
Rockies           91   72   .530   91.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  48.87813
Diamondbacks      82   80   .524   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            73   89   .444   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            66   96   .428   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.4 90.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.