Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Apr 16 08:22:47 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.8 84.9 79.0 73.1 65.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 8 6 .479 79.6 82.4 20.73631 9.21789 29.95420 2.82415 1.60472 Yankees 7 6 .487 80.3 81.7 23.02155 9.43398 32.45552 -1.00824 5.46261 Rays 7 7 .500 82.1 79.9 28.45736 10.14910 38.60646 4.85326 -0.62114 Orioles 6 7 .467 76.2 85.8 13.46848 6.82136 20.28984 -0.50857 -6.97531 Red Sox 5 9 .479 76.7 85.3 14.31630 7.03450 21.35080 -3.01124 -8.36581
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.4 87.5 81.6 75.7 67.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 8 6 .513 84.6 77.4 27.84354 16.96420 44.80774 4.08882 5.60681 Tigers 6 4 .496 81.8 80.2 21.20420 14.32286 35.52706 .31323 -1.75734 Indians 6 7 .500 81.3 80.7 18.85411 14.37104 33.22515 -1.14575 .92490 Twins 6 7 .496 80.3 81.7 16.41706 13.42019 29.83725 -3.68475 1.18393 Royals 5 7 .496 79.7 82.3 15.68109 12.88398 28.56507 3.17014 -11.80200
Average wins by position in AL west: 98.3 89.0 81.8 74.8 65.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 10 4 .548 92.2 69.8 48.12892 23.04429 71.17320 .36861 27.20902 Mariners 7 6 .534 87.4 74.6 28.36242 25.81983 54.18225 -7.87414 4.38742 Rangers 7 7 .479 77.3 84.7 7.94458 12.49351 20.43809 4.32611 -8.18910 Angels 6 8 .504 80.5 81.5 12.10478 17.61566 29.72044 -1.17094 1.00468 Astros 5 9 .458 72.1 89.9 3.45931 6.40762 9.86693 -1.54069 -9.67338 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.2 87.8
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.1 88.4 82.0 75.6 67.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 9 4 .544 89.9 72.1 42.60110 19.18130 61.78239 -3.74295 19.73815 Nationals 8 6 .525 85.5 76.5 25.69817 20.12330 45.82146 -5.47630 4.77993 Mets 7 7 .473 75.7 86.3 6.97783 8.79826 15.77609 2.11142 -8.41032 Phillies 6 7 .494 78.6 83.4 11.16956 11.93335 23.10291 1.48396 -4.20677 Marlins 6 9 .512 80.3 81.7 13.55335 14.10149 27.65483 5.32847 -14.78301
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.3 88.7 82.4 76.1 67.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 10 4 .542 90.0 72.0 42.12650 19.96282 62.08932 -7.90375 13.59194 Cardinals 9 5 .517 85.1 76.9 23.80961 20.19168 44.00129 9.18009 12.20954 Pirates 7 7 .504 80.9 81.1 13.90179 15.55775 29.45954 -4.85431 -9.63272 Reds 5 9 .513 80.2 81.8 12.86150 14.46533 27.32682 6.77697 8.22381 Cubs 4 8 .487 75.9 86.1 7.30060 9.32981 16.63041 -1.22072 -12.02740
Average wins by position in NL West: 94.0 85.8 79.5 73.0 63.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 9 5 .508 84.2 77.8 31.15522 12.22587 43.38108 -3.98381 -1.52902 Giants 9 5 .488 80.7 81.3 20.51027 10.53452 31.04479 1.28168 -4.39569 Rockies 7 8 .513 82.8 79.2 26.84287 11.63093 38.47380 6.30147 4.91190 Padres 6 8 .500 79.9 82.1 18.74291 9.86926 28.61216 -2.39869 -0.73248 Diamondbacks 4 13 .449 68.2 93.8 2.74874 2.09434 4.84308 -2.88357 -7.73788 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.6 88.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
