Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Sep 24 08:02:36 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.5 91.3 79.6 76.6 74.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 90 64 .556 94.5 67.5 94.41650 5.58350 100.00000 .00000 .00145 Yankees 86 68 .624 91.3 70.7 5.58350 94.41650 100.00000 .00000 .04986 Rays 76 79 .539 79.5 82.5 .00000 .37454 .37454 -0.12423 -0.49591 Orioles 74 82 .461 76.6 85.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00511 -0.26158 Blue Jays 72 83 .456 74.4 87.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00481
Average wins by position in AL Central: 101.8 84.3 79.8 65.8 64.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 97 58 .636 101.8 60.2 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 81 74 .492 84.3 77.7 .00000 96.12258 96.12258 7.44692 40.10468 Royals 76 78 .465 79.8 82.2 .00000 .91286 .91286 -0.07713 -1.22170 White Sox 62 92 .430 65.2 96.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 62 93 .434 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.3 80.9 79.5 77.9 74.9 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 95 59 .598 99.3 62.7 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 76 78 .495 80.1 81.9 .00000 1.38095 1.38095 -3.30903 -32.67962 Rangers 76 78 .494 80.0 82.0 .00000 1.18246 1.18246 -3.64536 -0.27570 Mariners 75 80 .498 78.2 83.8 .00000 .02661 .02661 -0.28606 -5.21669 Athletics 71 83 .489 74.9 87.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.3 84.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 98.1 77.1 74.0 69.9 64.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 93 61 .567 98.1 63.9 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 73 81 .474 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 70 83 .445 74.2 87.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 66 88 .440 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 61 94 .421 64.2 97.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.3 86.4 84.6 72.8 68.7 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 86 68 .552 90.3 71.7 96.63790 2.39138 99.02928 .24185 10.23835 Brewers 82 73 .508 85.6 76.4 1.01155 24.37099 25.38254 13.70104 13.94031 Cardinals 81 73 .543 85.4 76.6 2.35055 21.61291 23.96346 -5.13228 15.28402 Pirates 70 85 .432 72.8 89.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 66 89 .453 68.7 93.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.6 93.4 86.5 72.7 63.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 98 57 .608 102.6 59.4 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 89 66 .572 93.4 68.6 .00000 99.99990 99.99990 .00040 .00680 Rockies 83 72 .493 86.5 75.5 .00000 51.62482 51.62482 -8.81101 -39.46948 Padres 70 85 .418 72.7 89.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 61 94 .408 63.8 98.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.4 87.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
