Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Sep 30 07:53:20 EDT 2019
Average wins by position in AL East: 103.0 96.0 84.0 67.0 54.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 103 59 .568 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 96 66 .584 96.0 66.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 37.97970 Red Sox 84 78 .587 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Blue Jays 67 95 .432 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 54 108 .355 54.0 108.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 101.0 93.0 72.0 59.0 47.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 101 61 .568 101.0 61.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .02697 Indians 93 69 .530 93.0 69.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -42.27018 White Sox 72 89 .420 72.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 59 103 .391 59.0 103.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 47 114 .335 47.0 114.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 107.0 97.0 78.0 72.0 68.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 107 55 .674 107.0 55.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 97 65 .588 97.0 65.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 4.26350 Rangers 78 84 .450 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 72 90 .446 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 68 94 .445 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 97.0 96.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.0 93.0 86.0 81.0 57.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 97 65 .538 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 93 69 .590 93.0 69.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 1.60664 Mets 86 76 .530 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -2.27003 Phillies 81 81 .469 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.24035 Marlins 57 105 .404 57.0 105.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.0 89.0 84.0 75.0 69.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cardinals 91 71 .545 91.0 71.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 89 73 .523 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 2.66810 Cubs 84 78 .538 84.0 78.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -1.76435 Reds 75 87 .521 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 69 93 .424 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 106.0 85.0 77.0 71.0 70.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 106 56 .662 106.0 56.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 85 77 .523 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 77 85 .443 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 71 91 .454 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 70 92 .465 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.0 89.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
