Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Oct 1 07:25:41 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.0 83.2 83.0 76.7 71.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           96   66   .546   96.0   66.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Yankees           84   78   .495   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.04893
Blue Jays         83   79   .515   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rays              77   85   .531   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Red Sox           71   91   .457   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  88.7 88.2 85.0 72.2 71.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            90   72   .535   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .10698
Royals            89   73   .509   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   3.18225
Indians           85   77   .515   85.0   77.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.72185
White Sox         73   89   .453   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             70   92   .456   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.7 88.0 87.8 71.0 67.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            98   64   .581   98.0   64.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         88   74   .578   88.0   74.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   1.18355
Mariners          87   75   .526   87.0   75.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -3.70200
Astros            70   92   .470   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           67   95   .421   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.8 88.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.0 79.8 79.8 76.7 72.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         96   66   .583   96.0   66.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            79   83   .472   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              79   83   .473   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           77   85   .467   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          73   89   .448   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  88.7 88.0 80.8 76.5 72.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         90   72   .522   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Pirates           88   74   .550   88.0   74.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Brewers           82   80   .503   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.03460
Reds              76   86   .471   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Cubs              73   89   .476   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.3 88.0 76.7 65.0 64.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           94   68   .576   94.0   68.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            88   74   .522   88.0   74.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .03460
Padres            77   85   .453   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           66   96   .467   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      64   98   .428   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  88.1 88.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.