Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Oct 2 07:51:25 AM EDT 2023


Average wins by position in AL East:  101.0 99.0 89.0 82.0 78.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles          101   61   .554  101.0   61.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Rays              99   63   .619   99.0   63.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Blue Jays         89   73   .550   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000       27.17210   2.76690
Yankees           82   80   .500   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Red Sox           78   84   .502   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  87.0 78.0 76.0 61.0 56.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             87   75   .564   87.0   75.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            78   84   .475   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Guardians         76   86   .462   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
White Sox         61  101   .370   61.0  101.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Royals            56  106   .411   56.0  106.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.0 90.0 88.0 73.0 50.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            90   72   .545   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000  53.26190
Rangers           90   72   .589   90.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   1.58400
Mariners          88   74   .563   88.0   74.0     .00000     .00000     .00000      -27.17210 -57.61280
Angels            73   89   .469   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         50  112   .347   50.0  112.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  99.0 90.0 90.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  104.0 90.0 84.0 74.0 71.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves           104   58   .628  104.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          90   72   .577   90.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           84   77   .484   84.0   77.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  54.29660
Mets              74   87   .480   74.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         71   91   .394   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.0 83.0 82.0 76.0 71.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           92   70   .529   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Cubs              83   79   .545   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -60.74060
Reds              82   80   .462   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -5.66540
Pirates           76   86   .449   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Cardinals         71   91   .443   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  100.0 84.0 82.0 79.0 59.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers          100   62   .609  100.0   62.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      84   78   .498   84.0   78.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  12.23760
Padres            82   80   .554   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.10990
Giants            79   83   .475   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01830
Rockies           59  103   .355   59.0  103.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  90.0 84.5 83.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.