Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Jul 17 08:01:34 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.5 87.8 83.5 76.4 70.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           52   41   .527   87.6   74.4   29.97599   44.78219   74.75818         .57159  -0.40839
Rays              49   44   .548   86.1   75.9   20.17558   43.44836   63.62393       -4.70928   1.86279
Yankees           47   43   .582   89.6   72.4   49.31748   35.84903   85.16651        2.02943    .91252
Blue Jays         42   49   .480   75.5   86.5     .48369    3.58948    4.07317       -0.84008  -3.20454
Orioles           42   49   .428   71.6   90.4     .04727     .73190     .77917       -0.37456  -1.93746

Average wins by position in AL Central:  88.0 81.0 77.2 73.7 69.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           47   43   .542   87.3   74.7   81.04457    2.94754   83.99211       -2.50001  -6.48534
Twins             46   45   .457   78.0   84.0    8.02310    5.06885   13.09195       -1.24867    .02703
Royals            45   45   .441   77.0   85.0    6.79493    3.47419   10.26912        2.89110   1.49284
Tigers            41   49   .462   74.5   87.5    2.73511    1.48041    4.21552        1.03094   1.52520
White Sox         38   52   .475   72.6   89.4    1.40230     .59926    2.00156       -0.40834  -2.32884

Average wins by position in AL west:  105.4 84.8 80.7 77.3 73.1
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            62   30   .615  105.3   56.7   99.86367     .08728   99.95095         .01139    .00249
Mariners          46   47   .460   76.5   85.5     .00845    5.38152    5.38997        1.40055   2.37628
Angels            46   49   .479   77.6   84.4     .01493    7.45392    7.46885        1.56356  -1.60285
Rangers           45   46   .511   81.2   80.8     .07080   24.62263   24.69343       -3.58594  -0.31274
Athletics         42   50   .531   80.6   81.4     .04215   20.48345   20.52560        4.16833   8.08102

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.6 85.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.9 82.8 77.3 70.0 57.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         55   36   .576   95.9   65.1   97.50815     .92170   98.42985         .87749   2.93815
Braves            45   45   .485   79.8   82.2    1.00135    6.24489    7.24624        1.20398   4.02921
Mets              41   48   .420   70.5   90.5     .01405     .10140     .11545       -0.07290    .06825
Marlins           41   49   .523   79.8   82.2    1.47645    5.83564    7.31209       -2.28513  -4.28188
Phillies          30   60   .382   57.8  104.2     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00010    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.8 84.6 80.7 76.5 71.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           52   42   .540   88.2   73.8   64.42843    5.74062   70.16905       -3.53540   5.01122
Cubs              46   45   .505   82.0   80.0   14.84413    5.57748   20.42160        5.28536   9.94318
Cardinals         44   47   .538   82.9   79.1   18.04603    6.93896   24.98499       -3.04787  -7.60651
Pirates           44   48   .445   74.3   87.7    1.00996     .35326    1.36323         .15192    .35481
Reds              39   52   .517   75.6   86.4    1.67145     .68116    2.35262       -0.55672  -1.67603

Average wins by position in NL West:  109.2 94.3 88.1 72.4 57.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           64   29   .634  109.2   52.8   98.59820    1.34963   99.94783       -0.00180    .00426
Diamondbacks      53   39   .566   92.8   69.2    1.15125   89.63578   90.78703       -1.28825  -3.98920
Rockies           53   41   .532   89.6   72.4     .25055   76.35173   76.60228        3.20410  -4.90065
Padres            40   51   .455   72.3   89.7     .00000     .26776     .26776         .06533    .10520
Giants            35   58   .337   57.4  104.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.4 89.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.