Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Jun 15 08:00:14 EDT 2019


Average wins by position in AL East:  102.4 92.0 85.0 62.9 54.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rays              42   27   .627  101.8   60.2   87.15998   12.05723   99.21722         .22574    .64357
Yankees           41   27   .520   89.1   72.9    7.48233   61.82378   69.30611       -8.15971 -11.13972
Red Sox           37   34   .550   88.4   73.6    5.35758   60.55305   65.91063        7.25050    .73586
Blue Jays         25   44   .397   61.0  101.0     .00010     .00847     .00857       -0.00732  -0.03125
Orioles           21   48   .392   56.7  105.3     .00000     .00048     .00048       -0.00082  -0.00179

Average wins by position in AL Central:  104.5 82.2 73.9 66.6 60.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             46   22   .592  104.5   57.5   99.30485     .45778   99.76263       -0.00356    .00097
Indians           35   33   .473   81.0   81.0     .62517   18.17307   18.79823        3.79556   4.31622
White Sox         34   34   .422   73.7   88.3     .06772    2.31509    2.38281         .70695   1.35963
Tigers            25   41   .391   63.4   97.6     .00060     .04420     .04480       -0.05280  -0.08220
Royals            22   47   .441   64.6   97.4     .00167     .03940     .04106       -0.01470  -0.09437

Average wins by position in AL west:  107.7 85.3 80.2 75.9 70.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            47   23   .646  107.6   54.4   99.61525     .28744   99.90269         .03730    .00275
Rangers           37   32   .488   81.3   80.7     .17205   20.08304   20.25509        3.43595   6.75460
Athletics         35   35   .505   80.0   81.0     .13160   15.68830   15.81990       -5.18000  -5.00360
Angels            34   36   .489   77.1   84.9     .07238    6.81796    6.89034       -2.45981   2.24447
Mariners          30   43   .488   73.5   88.5     .00872    1.65072    1.65944         .42670    .29485

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.7 88.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.7 85.2 80.4 75.2 62.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            41   29   .513   89.5   72.5   63.32702    9.90675   73.23377        6.37309  18.64146
Phillies          38   31   .475   83.3   78.7   19.72520   12.58255   32.30775       -3.26051 -12.80315
Mets              33   36   .484   79.0   83.0    7.03337    5.86631   12.89967       -5.44458  -2.29820
Nationals         32   37   .504   80.3   81.7    9.90105    7.66949   17.57054        3.24888   3.75741
Marlins           24   43   .415   62.7   99.3     .01337     .01208     .02545       -0.03650  -0.19849

Average wins by position in NL Central:  94.7 88.6 83.1 77.1 70.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           39   30   .549   89.5   72.5   36.37939   32.98603   69.36542       -4.51283   6.27937
Cubs              38   31   .570   91.5   70.5   52.25165   27.53876   79.79041       -1.19791  -2.26820
Cardinals         35   33   .520   83.3   78.7    9.14099   20.84436   29.98535        8.41730  -1.04071
Pirates           31   38   .453   72.4   89.6     .35919    1.21001    1.56921         .71479  -3.59932
Reds              30   37   .508   77.1   84.9    1.86878    5.65373    7.52251       -1.95346  -4.24655

Average wins by position in NL West:  107.2 89.1 80.3 74.0 65.9
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           47   23   .643  107.1   54.9   98.07607    1.81380   99.88987         .05431    .06331
Diamondbacks      37   34   .557   88.2   73.8    1.79108   60.37476   62.16585       -1.00365   9.97512
Rockies           36   33   .484   78.8   83.2     .11145    9.97971   10.09116       -2.60939  -5.64075
Padres            34   36   .471   75.2   86.8     .02092    3.38157    3.40248        1.14298  -6.67039
Giants            29   38   .421   67.2   94.8     .00048     .18008     .18057         .06751    .04911

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.7 87.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.