Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun Sep 24 08:02:36 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.5 91.3 79.6 76.6 74.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           90   64   .556   94.5   67.5   94.41650    5.58350  100.00000         .00000    .00145
Yankees           86   68   .624   91.3   70.7    5.58350   94.41650  100.00000         .00000    .04986
Rays              76   79   .539   79.5   82.5     .00000     .37454     .37454       -0.12423  -0.49591
Orioles           74   82   .461   76.6   85.4     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00511  -0.26158
Blue Jays         72   83   .456   74.4   87.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00481

Average wins by position in AL Central:  101.8 84.3 79.8 65.8 64.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           97   58   .636  101.8   60.2  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             81   74   .492   84.3   77.7     .00000   96.12258   96.12258        7.44692  40.10468
Royals            76   78   .465   79.8   82.2     .00000     .91286     .91286       -0.07713  -1.22170
White Sox         62   92   .430   65.2   96.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            62   93   .434   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.3 80.9 79.5 77.9 74.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            95   59   .598   99.3   62.7  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Angels            76   78   .495   80.1   81.9     .00000    1.38095    1.38095       -3.30903 -32.67962
Rangers           76   78   .494   80.0   82.0     .00000    1.18246    1.18246       -3.64536  -0.27570
Mariners          75   80   .498   78.2   83.8     .00000     .02661     .02661       -0.28606  -5.21669
Athletics         71   83   .489   74.9   87.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.3 84.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.1 77.1 74.0 69.9 64.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         93   61   .567   98.1   63.9  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           73   81   .474   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            70   83   .445   74.2   87.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              66   88   .440   70.0   92.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          61   94   .421   64.2   97.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.3 86.4 84.6 72.8 68.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              86   68   .552   90.3   71.7   96.63790    2.39138   99.02928         .24185  10.23835
Brewers           82   73   .508   85.6   76.4    1.01155   24.37099   25.38254       13.70104  13.94031
Cardinals         81   73   .543   85.4   76.6    2.35055   21.61291   23.96346       -5.13228  15.28402
Pirates           70   85   .432   72.8   89.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              66   89   .453   68.7   93.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  102.6 93.4 86.5 72.7 63.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           98   57   .608  102.6   59.4  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      89   66   .572   93.4   68.6     .00000   99.99990   99.99990         .00040    .00680
Rockies           83   72   .493   86.5   75.5     .00000   51.62482   51.62482       -8.81101 -39.46948
Padres            70   85   .418   72.7   89.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Giants            61   94   .408   63.8   98.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  93.4 87.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.