Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Jul 5 07:52:16 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.0 90.1 86.2 81.3 68.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Blue Jays 50 38 .519 88.1 73.9 18.14610 58.92570 77.07180 -0.08960 15.05220 Rays 48 40 .548 88.1 73.9 18.21220 58.51520 76.72740 -4.90020 -11.17480 Yankees 48 40 .612 93.1 68.9 59.90390 35.19540 95.09930 -1.29520 -3.65760 Red Sox 44 45 .543 83.2 78.8 3.73580 35.71430 39.45010 4.43320 15.62380 Orioles 38 49 .416 68.4 93.6 .00200 .14970 .15170 .01890 -0.09520
Average wins by position in AL Central: 96.5 82.1 77.3 72.2 58.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 55 34 .561 96.5 65.5 98.02150 1.25310 99.27460 -0.01400 1.24689 Twins 42 46 .486 78.6 83.4 .96170 11.97500 12.93670 2.50070 -13.99540 Royals 42 47 .490 78.7 83.3 .86970 11.45830 12.32800 2.15820 -2.30150 Guardians 40 46 .436 74.3 87.7 .14710 2.77800 2.92510 -0.80050 -7.26590 White Sox 29 59 .393 58.1 103.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 94.8 86.3 81.0 74.5 66.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 53 35 .549 94.4 67.6 85.45730 11.47130 96.92860 2.34940 .74039 Mariners 46 42 .521 85.0 77.0 10.63110 43.95690 54.58800 4.46570 9.63950 Angels 43 44 .427 74.9 87.1 .24010 3.38040 3.62050 -1.01400 .34570 Rangers 43 45 .522 81.7 80.3 3.66970 25.17010 28.83980 -7.83230 -4.19950 Athletics 37 53 .416 66.9 95.1 .00180 .05660 .05840 .01970 .04140 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 90.8 87.8 87.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.2 88.4 78.2 72.5 66.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 51 37 .538 90.9 71.1 48.91060 35.22220 84.13280 -1.60070 8.24210 Mets 51 38 .555 91.5 70.5 50.53760 35.92710 86.46470 2.98490 -1.25460 Marlins 39 47 .456 73.1 88.9 .09760 .74810 .84570 -0.21530 .61070 Braves 39 48 .503 76.5 85.5 .45170 2.85690 3.30860 -1.55040 -3.15220 Nationals 37 51 .426 67.7 94.3 .00250 .02760 .03010 -0.03530 -0.00800
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.1 89.3 85.1 81.0 74.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 53 35 .588 96.6 65.4 84.42490 13.30330 97.72820 1.42960 8.18660 Brewers 49 39 .522 86.7 75.3 8.14600 46.90260 55.04860 5.62500 7.75750 Cardinals 47 42 .525 85.3 76.7 5.03880 38.88200 43.92080 -6.61610 -7.12640 Reds 46 42 .510 83.1 78.9 2.33170 25.21150 27.54320 4.18630 -2.82610 Pirates 38 51 .509 75.5 86.5 .05860 1.95940 2.01800 -0.65460 1.59420
Average wins by position in NL West: 96.2 88.4 83.7 78.8 46.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 56 33 .541 95.6 66.4 84.29630 12.45420 96.75050 -1.26770 1.70050 Padres 47 40 .517 86.6 75.4 10.25190 44.71400 54.96590 7.64750 10.60860 Giants 47 42 .498 83.3 78.7 3.84620 25.01490 28.86110 -4.78870 -13.30930 Diamondbacks 43 45 .518 81.5 80.5 1.60560 16.77620 18.38180 -5.14450 -11.02360 Rockies 20 68 .354 46.0 116.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.8 89.0 86.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
