Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Jun 27 08:00:33 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.0 87.3 82.4 77.4 71.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           42   34   .508   84.0   78.0   10.41007   33.60125   44.01131        3.78712   1.72762
Yankees           41   33   .602   93.9   68.1   76.86036   16.57921   93.43957         .55524  -3.50681
Rays              40   38   .543   84.7   77.3   11.14488   37.83905   48.98393       -1.29211  -5.90269
Orioles           37   38   .440   74.1   87.9     .32853    3.50218    3.83071       -0.02179  -0.77718
Blue Jays         36   39   .485   77.0   85.0    1.25617    7.89858    9.15474       -0.47590  -5.22545

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.8 82.4 77.9 73.8 68.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           40   35   .565   90.1   71.9   82.91609    4.69813   87.61422        1.81362  -2.45238
Twins             39   35   .460   78.8   83.2    7.23927    9.28949   16.52875       -3.48684   4.17972
Royals            37   37   .465   77.7   84.3    5.98972    6.91188   12.90160       -0.65133  -1.91012
Tigers            33   42   .476   74.6   87.4    2.67622    2.49854    5.17476       -0.06819  -4.10970
White Sox         32   43   .473   72.6   89.4    1.17872    1.41293    2.59165       -0.35574  -5.49367

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.9 86.1 81.6 77.9 73.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            52   25   .611  103.9   58.1   99.07571     .78924   99.86495         .00153    .17465
Angels            41   39   .507   81.7   80.3     .40836   28.01596   28.42432        5.42286  13.43271
Mariners          39   39   .497   79.6   82.4     .19516   17.49903   17.69419       -1.05328   2.21667
Rangers           38   38   .491   79.5   82.5     .20054   17.41726   17.61780       -3.69363   6.56588
Athletics         34   42   .511   78.1   83.9     .12023   12.04726   12.16750       -0.48157   1.08076

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.1 86.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.9 82.0 76.3 71.1 60.6
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         45   31   .552   93.6   68.4   92.43943    1.75609   94.19551       -0.84712   5.46643
Braves            36   39   .456   75.0   87.0    1.14703    1.78168    2.92871         .50679  -0.24462
Marlins           34   40   .502   79.8   82.2    5.56829    6.74755   12.31584        1.52708  -4.33224
Mets              34   41   .465   74.3   87.7     .84333    1.31936    2.16268         .35132    .93410
Phillies          24   51   .415   61.2  100.8     .00193     .00203     .00396       -0.00152  -0.00620

Average wins by position in NL Central:  88.4 83.4 79.4 74.9 68.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           41   37   .490   82.5   79.5   27.62169    4.61518   32.23687       -0.48653   1.39618
Cubs              39   37   .520   84.9   77.1   46.41784    4.56134   50.97918        3.55970  11.16054
Cardinals         35   40   .516   80.9   81.1   19.74730    3.88034   23.62764        2.43667    .62719
Pirates           35   41   .459   75.6   86.4    4.96285    1.00991    5.97275       -0.55851  -2.13347
Reds              31   44   .462   71.2   90.8    1.25033     .26978    1.52011       -0.87703  -3.19641

Average wins by position in NL West:  105.0 97.1 88.7 69.5 60.7
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           51   27   .612  103.8   58.2   76.17113   23.66918   99.84031       -0.04150    .98211
Diamondbacks      49   28   .569   97.3   64.7   21.73498   75.85566   97.59064         .54712   3.04239
Rockies           47   32   .500   89.5   72.5    2.09378   74.39202   76.48581       -6.13498 -13.75422
Padres            31   45   .431   68.4   93.6     .00010     .13666     .13676         .01638    .06638
Giants            28   51   .410   61.8  100.2     .00000     .00323     .00323         .00214  -0.00815

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  97.1 89.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.