Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Apr 17 07:51:46 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.0 89.1 82.6 76.3 68.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 11 7 .582 95.6 66.4 62.90200 25.82080 88.72280 2.61610 9.89050 Blue Jays 11 8 .502 82.7 79.3 12.64900 35.99670 48.64570 3.82870 -1.63350 Red Sox 10 10 .517 83.7 78.3 14.38480 38.47130 52.85610 8.77790 5.19370 Rays 8 10 .489 77.6 84.4 5.89170 23.99750 29.88920 -3.32250 -7.03080 Orioles 7 10 .473 75.7 86.3 4.17250 19.56620 23.73870 3.61370 -7.60450
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.5 82.4 75.8 69.5 61.3 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 10 8 .536 89.2 72.8 63.13010 13.04830 76.17840 -1.19680 -5.07160 Guardians 9 8 .464 77.2 84.8 15.49370 15.18590 30.67960 -7.32530 2.40290 Royals 8 11 .446 72.3 89.7 7.15730 8.55440 15.71170 -1.15940 -7.04500 Twins 7 12 .466 74.9 87.1 10.91940 12.27610 23.19550 .20390 4.84080 White Sox 4 13 .439 67.8 94.2 3.29950 4.83480 8.13430 -1.64080 -11.57970
Average wins by position in AL west: 93.1 85.8 80.3 74.7 67.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 11 7 .498 83.7 78.3 29.55680 23.70830 53.26510 4.07190 -2.64660 Angels 9 8 .489 80.7 81.3 20.27860 21.60190 41.88050 -7.59870 -0.70260 Mariners 9 9 .494 80.6 81.4 19.90000 21.27030 41.17030 4.89260 11.44470 Astros 8 10 .502 81.6 80.4 22.18550 22.82420 45.00970 -5.27570 7.23730 Athletics 8 10 .459 74.5 87.5 8.07910 12.84330 20.92240 -0.48560 2.30440 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.4 87.1 86.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 91.6 83.7 77.9 72.2 64.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 11 7 .517 85.3 76.7 42.84470 9.74920 52.59390 -1.99380 3.91220 Phillies 10 8 .476 78.3 83.7 18.85230 7.62000 26.47230 -2.97440 -17.17940 Marlins 8 9 .473 76.3 85.7 13.39950 6.78540 20.18490 -1.84910 -1.57770 Nationals 7 11 .459 72.9 89.1 8.21380 4.12780 12.34160 -3.74050 -22.49570 Braves 5 13 .500 77.4 84.6 16.68970 6.97210 23.66180 -2.88420 -1.25400
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.7 89.8 83.2 76.9 68.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 12 9 .580 94.1 67.9 53.69220 25.17190 78.86410 -0.48520 17.46680 Brewers 10 9 .494 79.5 82.5 7.63030 17.33290 24.96320 3.44500 -7.59780 Cardinals 9 9 .553 87.5 74.5 24.94490 29.99980 54.94470 5.25210 21.02350 Reds 9 9 .508 81.1 80.9 10.04550 20.23170 30.27720 -2.31380 -0.63430 Pirates 7 12 .487 75.4 86.6 3.68710 10.50850 14.19560 1.51830 -9.60380
Average wins by position in NL West: 102.3 94.0 87.2 79.2 61.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Padres 15 4 .565 95.1 66.9 39.84540 40.77200 80.61740 1.98590 22.41360 Dodgers 14 6 .506 84.6 77.4 9.71710 33.58820 43.30530 -4.45580 -23.59140 Giants 13 5 .551 92.3 69.7 28.71420 43.53040 72.24460 3.80250 19.93250 Diamondbacks 11 7 .553 90.1 71.9 21.65010 42.54300 64.19310 5.11270 6.25060 Rockies 3 15 .424 62.5 99.5 .07320 1.06710 1.14030 -0.41970 -7.06510 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 95.8 91.1 87.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
