Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Sep 28 07:52:35 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 98.0 93.0 87.0 79.0 79.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 98 64 .572 98.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 93 68 .575 93.0 68.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 87 75 .544 87.0 75.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 79 82 .483 79.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.04960 Blue Jays 79 83 .501 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -5.06830
Average wins by position in AL Central: 85.0 84.0 77.0 76.0 69.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 85 77 .498 85.0 77.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 4.71320 White Sox 84 78 .500 84.0 78.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 2.31620 Twins 77 85 .467 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 76 86 .541 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 69 93 .437 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 81.0 80.0 76.0 64.0 62.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 81 81 .472 81.0 81.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 25.33260 59.35520 Rangers 80 82 .474 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -25.33260 -61.17930 Mariners 76 86 .460 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.08740 Athletics 64 98 .369 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 62 100 .446 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.6 87.0 83.6
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.0 88.0 80.0 77.0 74.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 94 68 .525 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 88 74 .497 88.0 74.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 24.35590 1.65510 Marlins 80 82 .538 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 77 85 .489 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 74 88 .492 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 103.0 89.0 82.0 77.0 75.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 103 59 .621 103.0 59.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 89 73 .580 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00950 Pirates 82 80 .549 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 77 85 .463 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 75 87 .412 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 100.0 91.0 86.0 65.0 58.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 100 62 .625 100.0 62.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 91 71 .517 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 1.41490 Diamondbacks 86 76 .499 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -24.35590 -3.07950 Giants 65 97 .470 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 58 104 .386 58.0 104.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.0 89.0 88.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
