Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun Sep 21 07:25:49 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.8 83.2 81.2 79.1 70.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           93   61   .551   97.2   64.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .01490
Yankees           79   75   .492   82.9   79.1     .00000     .27905     .27905       -0.31762  -0.90871
Blue Jays         78   76   .510   82.1   79.9     .00000     .09398     .09398         .06195  -5.11769
Rays              75   80   .544   78.8   83.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00003
Red Sox           67   88   .448   70.2   91.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.7 88.0 84.5 73.3 69.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            86   68   .539   90.9   71.1   93.33110    5.97248   99.30358        3.00959   9.37327
Royals            83   70   .503   88.0   75.0    6.63215   55.92410   62.55625         .67581 -10.59009
Indians           80   74   .511   84.6   78.4     .03675    4.72850    4.76525        3.19700   1.79802
White Sox         70   84   .453   73.5   88.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             66   88   .455   69.7   92.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.4 88.6 87.1 71.6 64.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            96   59   .590   99.7   62.3  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         84   70   .576   88.7   73.3     .00000   89.52077   89.52077       -1.29356  -5.74252
Mariners          83   71   .530   86.9   75.1     .00000   43.48112   43.48112       -5.33318  11.17281
Astros            68   87   .475   71.4   90.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           61   93   .416   64.3   97.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.3 87.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.4 80.1 78.9 77.2 73.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         90   64   .578   95.1   66.9  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .02365
Braves            76   78   .482   79.9   82.1     .00000     .03850     .03850       -0.07596  -8.13716
Mets              75   80   .466   78.1   83.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01909
Marlins           74   80   .473   77.6   84.4     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00002  -0.03115
Phillies          71   84   .449   74.2   87.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00007

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.6 87.5 83.4 74.2 72.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         87   68   .529   90.8   71.2   96.04682    3.95218   99.99900         .00387    .93672
Pirates           83   71   .549   87.3   74.7    3.95182   92.01825   95.97007       -2.00644  19.82555
Brewers           80   75   .503   83.6   78.4     .00137    4.77137    4.77273        2.61454 -12.27667
Reds              71   84   .468   74.3   87.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.01548
Cubs              69   86   .477   72.2   89.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.5 88.1 76.7 67.3 64.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           88   67   .571   92.2   69.8   95.56675    4.43325  100.00000         .00000    .02240
Giants            84   70   .523   88.2   73.8    4.43325   94.78645   99.21970       -0.53597  -0.32842
Padres            73   81   .451   76.6   85.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00028
Rockies           64   91   .466   67.1   94.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      62   93   .425   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  88.5 86.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.