Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Aug 30 07:52:31 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.6 92.3 88.4 81.4 78.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 81 54 .566 96.3 65.7 82.99370 17.00630 100.00000 .00000 .00280 Yankees 77 59 .568 92.2 69.8 15.09040 84.89820 99.98860 .00340 .03930 Red Sox 74 62 .562 88.8 73.2 1.91590 97.56910 99.48500 .20040 1.40910 Orioles 67 69 .487 79.4 82.6 .00000 19.85550 19.85550 3.79880 6.79710 Blue Jays 67 70 .493 80.0 82.0 .00000 26.81040 26.81040 6.11330 -6.40880
Average wins by position in AL Central: 86.4 81.5 78.3 75.6 72.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 72 63 .503 86.2 75.8 88.16270 7.54720 95.70990 2.23400 11.73870 Guardians 68 68 .486 81.1 80.9 10.15030 33.34170 43.49200 -10.62010 10.34250 Twins 64 72 .461 76.0 86.0 .34130 1.67040 2.01170 -1.22370 -9.91300 Tigers 63 72 .537 77.8 84.2 1.33100 5.70370 7.03470 2.13860 -10.10830 Royals 62 75 .455 73.4 88.6 .01470 .15560 .17030 .06750 .14280
Average wins by position in AL west: 81.3 78.8 76.2 65.1 62.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 68 68 .452 80.1 81.9 52.47480 1.90380 54.37860 -2.26700 11.34340 Rangers 66 70 .467 78.5 83.5 26.47830 2.28760 28.76590 .76010 -3.84160 Mariners 64 72 .467 77.7 84.3 21.04690 1.25050 22.29740 -1.20520 -11.53940 Athletics 53 83 .383 63.5 98.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 .00000 Angels 52 84 .453 63.7 98.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00460 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.3 88.5 88.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.9 88.4 81.8 76.8 72.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 81 55 .538 94.8 67.2 92.60000 7.36820 99.96820 .03850 1.53950 Phillies 76 60 .502 88.5 73.5 7.38940 83.47070 90.86010 4.74450 10.78070 Marlins 68 68 .550 81.6 80.4 .01060 9.87860 9.88920 -3.73600 -11.72570 Nationals 65 73 .497 76.6 85.4 .00000 .10530 .10530 .03520 -0.20260 Mets 61 75 .480 73.1 88.9 .00000 .00050 .00050 .00030 -0.01650
Average wins by position in NL Central: 100.9 90.5 81.0 78.0 73.1 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 85 51 .623 100.9 61.1 99.25600 .74400 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 77 59 .565 90.5 71.5 .74400 96.97510 97.71910 1.70190 1.61600 Cardinals 68 69 .476 79.4 82.6 .00000 1.28570 1.28570 -0.86370 -3.96930 Pirates 66 71 .543 79.5 82.5 .00000 1.43230 1.43230 .48230 -1.32930 Reds 64 72 .419 73.2 88.8 .00000 .00230 .00230 -0.00350 -0.01970
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.4 86.6 83.5 67.5 62.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 81 55 .605 97.4 64.6 99.90840 .09020 99.99860 -0.00060 -0.00050 Diamondbacks 73 65 .493 85.2 76.8 .04140 51.00120 51.04260 2.28350 14.52820 Padres 72 64 .500 85.0 77.0 .05020 47.64590 47.69610 -4.68240 -11.20080 Giants 56 81 .475 67.4 94.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 52 84 .394 62.4 99.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.2 88.4 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
