Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue Oct 1 07:51:46 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.0 91.0 81.0 80.0 74.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 94 68 .575 94.0 68.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 91 71 .566 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .13330 Red Sox 81 81 .545 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.37640 Rays 80 82 .490 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.10460 Blue Jays 74 88 .484 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.0 86.0 86.0 82.0 41.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 92 69 .505 92.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 86 76 .522 86.0 76.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 48.07960 Tigers 86 76 .516 86.0 76.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 20.87670 Twins 82 80 .516 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -54.84770 White Sox 41 121 .320 41.0 121.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 88.0 85.0 78.0 69.0 63.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 88 73 .547 88.0 73.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 1.73960 Mariners 85 77 .565 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -15.50050 Rangers 78 84 .448 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 69 93 .442 69.0 93.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 63 99 .413 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.0 86.0 85.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.0 89.0 89.0 71.0 62.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 95 67 .562 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 89 73 .555 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 20.99620 56.52130 Mets 89 73 .547 89.0 73.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 29.80500 22.06860 Nationals 71 91 .458 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 62 100 .399 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.0 83.0 83.0 77.0 76.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 93 69 .555 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 83 79 .486 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 83 79 .527 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 77 85 .484 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 76 86 .437 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 98.0 93.0 89.0 80.0 61.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 98 64 .596 98.0 64.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 93 69 .564 93.0 69.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00360 Diamondbacks 89 73 .533 89.0 73.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -50.80120 -78.59350 Giants 80 82 .483 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 61 101 .361 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.0 89.0 88.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
