Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Jul 31 07:26:05 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  90.3 86.4 82.7 79.1 71.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           60   46   .504   88.1   73.9   51.58768   18.07286   69.66055        6.36981  16.22762
Blue Jays         59   50   .522   86.7   75.3   34.68868   21.77796   56.46664        4.97255  25.48709
Yankees           55   52   .488   81.8   80.2    7.12629    8.34288   15.46918       -4.67594 -14.67360
Rays              53   55   .538   81.7   80.3    6.56718    8.15847   14.72564       -4.30223  -1.44976
Red Sox           48   60   .465   72.1   89.9     .03018     .06080     .09098       -0.05967  -1.61581

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.1 84.3 80.7 77.3 71.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            58   46   .536   89.4   72.6   78.85826    4.69872   83.55698        2.62909  -2.80009
Royals            54   52   .488   81.7   80.3    8.71722    7.11232   15.82954         .57037  -1.92619
Indians           53   54   .511   82.1   79.9   10.07117    8.19202   18.26318        1.92964  -4.54047
White Sox         52   56   .487   78.2   83.8    2.14898    1.87586    4.02485       -1.87706   1.80288
Twins             48   58   .456   72.9   89.1     .20438     .08349     .28787       -0.17303  -0.75047

Average wins by position in AL west:  100.5 94.6 83.3 69.5 63.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Athletics         66   41   .602   99.4   62.6   72.33952   27.49149   99.83101       -0.04289    .01916
Angels            63   43   .589   95.6   66.4   27.54922   71.05428   98.60349       -0.29661    .16153
Mariners          55   52   .529   83.3   78.7     .11127   23.07621   23.18748       -5.04476 -15.90196
Astros            44   64   .455   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00262     .00262         .00078  -0.03978
Rangers           43   65   .416   64.3   97.7     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00005  -0.00017

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  94.5 87.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.2 84.7 80.2 76.4 69.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         58   47   .552   90.5   71.5   81.31598    9.54156   90.85754        2.45351   3.71081
Braves            58   50   .491   84.1   77.9   14.86400   26.38017   41.24417       -3.60043  -5.79294
Marlins           53   54   .472   78.9   83.1    1.92058    5.74361    7.66420       -1.24847   5.96363
Mets              52   56   .486   78.4   83.6    1.88609    4.06643    5.95252        1.29154   1.00969
Phillies          47   61   .442   70.2   91.8     .01334     .03427     .04761       -0.01990    .01836

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.2 86.9 83.7 79.6 69.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           60   49   .513   86.7   75.3   34.15551   30.86923   65.02474        7.84040   1.43582
Pirates           57   50   .525   86.1   75.9   28.06555   31.77810   59.84365       -3.41535   6.65647
Cardinals         56   50   .532   86.5   75.5   32.90500   30.47199   63.37699       -7.90453  -3.29397
Reds              53   54   .510   81.0   81.0    4.86565   12.39492   17.26057       -2.39339  -5.42334
Cubs              44   62   .477   69.9   92.1     .00829     .03992     .04821       -0.02441  -0.07067

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.1 84.9 75.6 71.6 67.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           61   47   .553   91.6   70.4   84.58126   10.35446   94.93572        1.19061  19.68314
Giants            58   50   .502   85.3   76.7   15.31826   37.87530   53.19356        5.58855 -24.12019
Padres            48   59   .452   73.3   88.7     .07897     .33954     .41851         .20222    .24547
Diamondbacks      47   61   .445   71.5   90.5     .01456     .08114     .09570         .02911  -0.01803
Rockies           44   63   .465   70.1   91.9     .00696     .02935     .03631         .01052  -0.00426

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  87.9 85.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.