Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Aug 18 08:01:42 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.9 88.7 81.7 78.3 74.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           69   51   .543   90.9   71.1   51.69691   45.85651   97.55342
Yankees           65   55   .604   90.6   71.4   47.80254   48.99213   96.79467
Rays              60   63   .531   80.4   81.6     .38418   14.65976   15.04393
Blue Jays         59   62   .464   77.5   84.5     .06948    3.57482    3.64431
Orioles           59   62   .461   77.2   84.8     .04689    3.11298    3.15987

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.2 82.5 78.4 72.1 64.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           66   53   .588   92.2   69.8   97.03022    1.82043   98.85065
Royals            61   59   .477   81.0   81.0    2.25227   17.43969   19.69196
Twins             60   59   .452   79.7   82.3     .71167   11.20302   11.91469
Tigers            53   67   .455   72.1   89.9     .00585     .07094     .07679
White Sox         45   73   .431   64.4   97.6     .00000     .00003     .00003

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.3 83.9 80.5 77.5 71.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            74   47   .610   99.3   62.7   99.87431     .07306   99.94737
Angels            62   59   .485   81.4   80.6     .07715   23.57608   23.65323
Mariners          61   61   .489   79.4   82.6     .01222    9.85435    9.86657
Rangers           60   60   .501   80.8   81.2     .03620   19.69069   19.72689
Athletics         53   68   .476   71.9   90.1     .00013     .07550     .07563

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.0 84.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.7 81.0 74.8 70.6 61.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         72   47   .579   97.7   64.3   99.88220     .04473   99.92693
Marlins           58   61   .502   80.6   81.4     .10995    5.89934    6.00929
Braves            54   65   .442   73.6   88.4     .00455     .05983     .06438
Mets              53   66   .447   72.1   89.9     .00330     .01044     .01374
Phillies          43   76   .424   61.4  100.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  88.7 84.9 81.0 75.4 69.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              63   57   .547   87.0   75.0   56.28274   10.37369   66.65643
Brewers           63   59   .486   81.7   80.3    7.59756    5.29355   12.89111
Cardinals         62   59   .549   85.6   76.4   35.86978   13.23006   49.09983
Pirates           58   63   .443   75.2   86.8     .24823     .14037     .38859
Reds              51   71   .459   69.9   92.1     .00170     .00084     .00254

Average wins by position in NL West:  113.2 92.0 86.7 70.6 64.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           85   34   .645  113.1   48.9   99.95265     .02245   99.97510
Diamondbacks      67   54   .578   91.2   70.8     .03490   94.48667   94.52157
Rockies           67   54   .501   87.4   74.6     .01245   70.43510   70.44755
Padres            54   67   .427   70.3   91.7     .00000     .00295     .00295
Giants            49   74   .409   64.4   97.6     .00000     .00000     .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.0 87.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.