Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Jun 15 08:00:14 EDT 2019
Average wins by position in AL East: 102.4 92.0 85.0 62.9 54.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 42 27 .627 101.8 60.2 87.15998 12.05723 99.21722 .22574 .64357 Yankees 41 27 .520 89.1 72.9 7.48233 61.82378 69.30611 -8.15971 -11.13972 Red Sox 37 34 .550 88.4 73.6 5.35758 60.55305 65.91063 7.25050 .73586 Blue Jays 25 44 .397 61.0 101.0 .00010 .00847 .00857 -0.00732 -0.03125 Orioles 21 48 .392 56.7 105.3 .00000 .00048 .00048 -0.00082 -0.00179
Average wins by position in AL Central: 104.5 82.2 73.9 66.6 60.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 46 22 .592 104.5 57.5 99.30485 .45778 99.76263 -0.00356 .00097 Indians 35 33 .473 81.0 81.0 .62517 18.17307 18.79823 3.79556 4.31622 White Sox 34 34 .422 73.7 88.3 .06772 2.31509 2.38281 .70695 1.35963 Tigers 25 41 .391 63.4 97.6 .00060 .04420 .04480 -0.05280 -0.08220 Royals 22 47 .441 64.6 97.4 .00167 .03940 .04106 -0.01470 -0.09437
Average wins by position in AL west: 107.7 85.3 80.2 75.9 70.5 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 47 23 .646 107.6 54.4 99.61525 .28744 99.90269 .03730 .00275 Rangers 37 32 .488 81.3 80.7 .17205 20.08304 20.25509 3.43595 6.75460 Athletics 35 35 .505 80.0 81.0 .13160 15.68830 15.81990 -5.18000 -5.00360 Angels 34 36 .489 77.1 84.9 .07238 6.81796 6.89034 -2.45981 2.24447 Mariners 30 43 .488 73.5 88.5 .00872 1.65072 1.65944 .42670 .29485 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.7 88.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 91.7 85.2 80.4 75.2 62.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 41 29 .513 89.5 72.5 63.32702 9.90675 73.23377 6.37309 18.64146 Phillies 38 31 .475 83.3 78.7 19.72520 12.58255 32.30775 -3.26051 -12.80315 Mets 33 36 .484 79.0 83.0 7.03337 5.86631 12.89967 -5.44458 -2.29820 Nationals 32 37 .504 80.3 81.7 9.90105 7.66949 17.57054 3.24888 3.75741 Marlins 24 43 .415 62.7 99.3 .01337 .01208 .02545 -0.03650 -0.19849
Average wins by position in NL Central: 94.7 88.6 83.1 77.1 70.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 39 30 .549 89.5 72.5 36.37939 32.98603 69.36542 -4.51283 6.27937 Cubs 38 31 .570 91.5 70.5 52.25165 27.53876 79.79041 -1.19791 -2.26820 Cardinals 35 33 .520 83.3 78.7 9.14099 20.84436 29.98535 8.41730 -1.04071 Pirates 31 38 .453 72.4 89.6 .35919 1.21001 1.56921 .71479 -3.59932 Reds 30 37 .508 77.1 84.9 1.86878 5.65373 7.52251 -1.95346 -4.24655
Average wins by position in NL West: 107.2 89.1 80.3 74.0 65.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 47 23 .643 107.1 54.9 98.07607 1.81380 99.88987 .05431 .06331 Diamondbacks 37 34 .557 88.2 73.8 1.79108 60.37476 62.16585 -1.00365 9.97512 Rockies 36 33 .484 78.8 83.2 .11145 9.97971 10.09116 -2.60939 -5.64075 Padres 34 36 .471 75.2 86.8 .02092 3.38157 3.40248 1.14298 -6.67039 Giants 29 38 .421 67.2 94.8 .00048 .18008 .18057 .06751 .04911 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 91.7 87.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
