Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Oct 6 07:51:55 EDT 2022


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.0 92.0 86.0 83.0 78.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           99   63   .645   99.0   63.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Blue Jays         92   70   .570   92.0   70.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00350
Rays              86   76   .536   86.0   76.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .23290
Orioles           83   79   .487   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.27570
Red Sox           78   84   .494   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.0 81.0 78.0 66.0 65.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Guardians         92   70   .536   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
White Sox         81   81   .477   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             78   84   .503   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            66   96   .389   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Royals            65   97   .397   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  106.0 90.0 73.0 68.0 60.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros           106   56   .640  106.0   56.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mariners          90   72   .530   90.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .03930
Angels            73   89   .497   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           68   94   .461   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         60  102   .366   60.0  102.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.0 90.0 90.6

Average wins by position in NL East:  101.0 101.0 87.0 69.0 55.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves           101   61   .607  101.0   61.0   50.49240   49.50760  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mets             101   61   .591  101.0   61.0   49.50760   50.49240  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          87   75   .554   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000       18.77820  50.03400
Marlins           69   93   .440   69.0   93.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         55  107   .385   55.0  107.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.0 86.0 74.0 62.0 62.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         93   69   .551   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Brewers           86   76   .528   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000      -18.77820 -53.13080
Cubs              74   88   .456   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Pirates           62  100   .374   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              62  100   .379   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  111.0 89.0 81.0 74.0 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers          111   51   .684  111.0   51.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            89   73   .528   89.0   73.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000   3.09680
Giants            81   81   .509   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      74   88   .471   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           68   94   .417   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  101.0 89.0 86.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.