Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Aug 29 07:59:47 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.1 89.8 86.0 81.5 70.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays         74   56   .569   91.4   70.6   51.36757   39.65287   91.02044        3.63118   1.62761
Red Sox           72   58   .603   90.9   71.1   42.99762   45.50144   88.49906       -2.69611  -3.84791
Orioles           71   59   .504   86.1   75.9    5.16623   28.91548   34.08171        8.84981   6.75771
Yankees           67   62   .502   82.1   79.9     .46858    4.77158    5.24016       -1.05800   2.33820
Rays              55   74   .510   70.6   91.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00055

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.5 87.0 83.5 78.4 62.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           73   56   .561   92.2   69.8   86.90743    7.46677   94.37420       -0.85301  -3.66865
Tigers            69   61   .518   86.1   75.9    9.47157   26.10661   35.57818       -7.52697   9.14929
Royals            68   62   .488   84.3   77.7    3.52007   12.53829   16.05836        5.67169   8.62818
White Sox         63   66   .473   78.8   83.2     .10093     .37171     .47264         .22804    .15687
Twins             49   81   .436   62.7   99.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.0 86.4 82.8 72.9 69.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           77   54   .479   92.8   69.2   92.67842    4.24145   96.91986        2.33604   6.20850
Astros            68   62   .500   84.2   77.8    2.56072   11.89657   14.45729       -3.97353   2.34672
Mariners          68   62   .506   85.2   76.8    4.76087   18.53723   23.29809       -4.60901 -29.69592
Athletics         57   73   .437   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00011  -0.00003
Angels            56   74   .447   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00005  -0.00003

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  90.2 88.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.5 85.1 81.4 73.0 61.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         75   55   .598   95.4   66.6   99.17075     .65348   99.82423       -0.03249  -0.07227
Marlins           67   63   .510   83.5   78.5     .47370   23.27118   23.74488       -5.34160 -15.86263
Mets              66   64   .501   83.1   78.9     .35535   19.25746   19.61281       -3.23823   8.49859
Phillies          60   70   .402   73.0   89.0     .00020     .01172     .01192         .00572  -0.01643
Braves            48   83   .420   61.4  100.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  103.6 86.9 82.2 70.8 66.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              82   47   .642  103.6   58.4   99.94103     .01026   99.95130         .00077    .00503
Cardinals         68   61   .562   86.3   75.7     .04388   61.95793   62.00181       -7.77398 -15.62203
Pirates           67   61   .473   82.8   79.2     .01508   18.21065   18.22573        6.08600  10.25857
Brewers           56   74   .454   69.6   92.4     .00000     .00007     .00007       -0.00029  -0.00151
Reds              55   74   .417   68.2   93.8     .00000     .00003     .00003         .00003  -0.00017

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.8 87.2 78.4 70.1 66.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           73   57   .563   91.2   70.8   76.99572   19.69057   96.68628        1.82459   9.26550
Giants            71   59   .541   87.7   74.3   22.91807   55.75803   78.67610        7.83438   4.84233
Rockies           62   68   .505   78.3   83.7     .08622    1.17862    1.26483         .63509  -1.29462
Padres            55   75   .435   68.6   93.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00030
Diamondbacks      55   76   .447   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00010

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  88.8 86.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.