Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Apr 18 08:00:46 EDT 2019
Average wins by position in AL East: 104.1 84.7 75.7 68.2 59.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 14 4 .601 103.5 58.5 90.62535 5.23364 95.85899 1.71421 15.84518 Yankees 8 9 .494 80.3 81.7 6.37028 21.27070 27.64099 -5.19945 -1.45108 Blue Jays 7 12 .463 73.8 88.2 1.91450 8.74817 10.66267 -0.78477 -1.64710 Orioles 7 12 .413 66.1 95.9 .40471 2.10508 2.50979 -1.22250 -7.71767 Red Sox 6 13 .433 68.2 93.8 .68516 3.20801 3.89317 -0.32576 -15.07518
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.4 86.4 80.5 74.7 66.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 11 7 .481 80.8 81.2 18.27409 12.40725 30.68134 2.69495 -0.97019 Twins 9 6 .524 86.5 75.5 38.17564 14.24008 52.41572 4.16794 4.39512 Tigers 8 9 .489 79.0 83.0 14.83688 10.58193 25.41881 -1.97542 -14.84060 White Sox 7 10 .508 81.4 80.6 20.61686 12.66816 33.28502 -0.36923 13.59731 Royals 6 12 .481 75.3 86.7 8.09653 7.11690 15.21344 -0.11753 .25280
Average wins by position in AL west: 103.6 90.7 82.5 75.5 66.8 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mariners 13 8 .534 87.7 74.3 15.21858 40.37271 55.59129 -0.36257 -2.96343 Astros 12 6 .614 101.6 60.4 75.65388 17.12462 92.77851 -0.04144 17.57200 Athletics 11 10 .485 77.4 83.6 3.04315 16.32400 19.36715 3.18480 2.35796 Rangers 10 7 .487 78.7 82.3 4.45285 19.65750 24.11035 -1.34230 7.15174 Angels 8 10 .466 73.5 88.5 1.63153 8.94125 10.57278 -0.02091 -16.50685 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.3 88.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.4 87.3 80.9 73.7 60.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Phillies 11 6 .518 86.7 75.3 34.11866 16.91136 51.03002 1.24514 3.25455 Mets 10 8 .494 81.7 80.3 18.15008 13.99038 32.14046 -0.16673 -6.10969 Braves 9 8 .511 83.5 78.5 23.53215 15.17293 38.70508 -2.85640 1.48380 Nationals 8 8 .511 83.5 78.5 23.55130 15.45164 39.00294 1.92003 -3.02127 Marlins 4 15 .421 62.7 99.3 .64781 .66834 1.31615 -0.60638 -5.44912
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.1 88.3 82.4 76.5 67.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 12 7 .511 84.1 77.9 22.19830 17.67366 39.87196 -5.28091 5.66245 Pirates 10 6 .527 86.4 75.6 30.63990 18.26866 48.90856 2.27350 5.47983 Cardinals 10 8 .521 84.7 77.3 24.23083 17.97576 42.20659 3.68965 -5.30232 Cubs 8 9 .517 82.1 79.9 17.70924 15.22331 32.93255 .22824 11.17790 Reds 5 12 .485 74.1 87.9 5.22173 6.59840 11.82014 -1.40440 -12.85853
Average wins by position in NL West: 96.7 87.4 80.9 74.6 66.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 12 8 .563 92.5 69.5 57.35283 15.57428 72.92711 1.31215 17.78608 Padres 11 8 .478 78.8 83.2 10.29382 11.73931 22.03313 -0.18273 -8.57104 Diamondbacks 9 9 .509 82.4 79.6 17.22460 16.79297 34.01756 2.20334 .05467 Giants 8 11 .498 79.3 82.7 11.16791 12.59400 23.76191 -2.25471 -0.97161 Rockies 6 12 .467 72.7 89.3 3.96085 5.36498 9.32582 -0.11979 -2.61572 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.4 88.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
