Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Apr 28 07:51:27 AM EDT 2024
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.8 91.4 83.8 74.8 65.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 18 10 .513 86.3 75.7 15.52340 42.11740 57.64080 10.14130 2.94470 Orioles 17 9 .564 94.7 67.3 48.91480 37.46250 86.37730 -1.28111 1.71750 Red Sox 15 13 .566 91.9 70.1 33.94080 45.50770 79.44850 7.13380 10.44350 Blue Jays 13 15 .451 73.1 88.9 1.15290 9.01210 10.16500 -4.00130 -15.25700 Rays 13 15 .432 69.5 92.5 .46810 4.65760 5.12570 -3.14690 -9.25850
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.3 87.6 81.6 74.7 57.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 19 8 .517 90.0 72.0 46.80240 26.03230 72.83470 6.69640 11.05030 Royals 17 11 .493 83.4 78.6 19.12570 26.39720 45.52290 -8.58500 -14.14080 Tigers 15 12 .492 81.9 80.1 14.82360 23.85140 38.67500 2.83390 12.59930 Twins 13 13 .510 83.6 78.4 19.20430 26.92230 46.12660 6.64530 20.83090 White Sox 5 22 .395 58.2 103.8 .04400 .23520 .27920 -0.14770 -2.30660
Average wins by position in AL west: 92.1 84.4 78.6 72.8 65.2 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mariners 15 12 .523 86.5 75.5 44.67640 16.76510 61.44150 -1.15190 4.29450 Rangers 14 14 .516 83.8 78.2 31.80880 17.73710 49.54590 -8.72360 7.32670 Athletics 11 17 .442 70.8 91.2 3.59300 4.03560 7.62860 -1.23170 .24860 Angels 10 17 .480 75.4 86.6 9.19050 8.68730 17.87780 -5.58960 -15.83780 Astros 8 19 .503 76.7 85.3 10.73130 10.57920 21.31050 .40810 -14.65530 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 93.4 88.9 88.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 100.2 91.7 84.5 75.2 58.2 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 18 7 .572 95.7 66.3 52.95880 32.21760 85.17640 -0.72770 1.74570 Phillies 18 10 .546 90.5 71.5 26.79280 42.92180 69.71460 9.36950 28.63330 Mets 13 13 .544 87.2 74.8 16.98090 38.67660 55.65750 -5.44890 -23.45570 Nationals 12 14 .486 77.7 84.3 3.25410 15.53310 18.78720 4.11560 .24500 Marlins 6 22 .403 58.8 103.2 .01340 .18180 .19520 -0.10300 -0.77510
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.4 89.7 84.1 78.5 70.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 17 9 .554 92.8 69.2 51.09730 26.28340 77.38070 -5.30380 -6.75830 Cubs 17 10 .503 84.4 77.6 16.38090 26.74070 43.12160 -12.49550 2.76980 Reds 15 12 .505 82.6 79.4 12.31680 24.17680 36.49360 5.86430 -7.60720 Pirates 14 14 .526 84.7 77.3 16.51810 28.26390 44.78200 8.21900 1.94340 Cardinals 13 14 .472 76.1 85.9 3.68690 10.98750 14.67440 3.45660 3.87460
Average wins by position in NL West: 97.2 85.5 78.6 71.9 61.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 18 11 .584 95.7 66.3 78.36080 9.99830 88.35910 4.51250 35.35630 Padres 14 16 .500 79.5 82.5 7.75400 16.30640 24.06040 -5.71080 -24.38040 Giants 13 15 .482 76.9 85.1 5.12050 11.55510 16.67560 -2.39780 -6.41070 Diamondbacks 12 16 .508 79.3 82.7 8.54660 15.58200 24.12860 -2.81590 -3.72290 Rockies 7 20 .422 62.8 99.2 .21810 .57500 .79310 -0.53410 -1.45780 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 94.3 90.1 86.9
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
