Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Jul 30 08:00:00 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.6 85.9 82.2 78.4 70.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           57   43   .563   92.0   70.0   81.46666   13.14917   94.61583       -1.75532   7.18585
Orioles           51   49   .511   81.5   80.5    3.96388   21.74256   25.70644        3.81501  11.53778
Blue Jays         51   51   .556   84.0   78.0   11.27149   35.62501   46.89650        5.46272   4.09761
Rays              51   52   .523   81.3   80.7    3.28228   20.21887   23.50116       -4.23985   5.10004
Red Sox           44   58   .460   70.7   91.3     .01569     .17281     .18850       -0.18026  -0.70002

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.6 83.1 79.6 76.7 73.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            61   39   .538   94.5   67.5   96.95212    1.72507   98.67718       -0.59301   1.60527
Twins             52   48   .454   79.0   83.0     .89334   10.71043   11.60378       -3.79615    .12988
White Sox         49   50   .453   77.0   85.0     .47573    4.97144    5.44716        1.88051   5.22565
Tigers            49   52   .492   78.6   83.4    1.06267    8.90656    9.96922        1.43531  -9.37238
Indians           46   54   .520   78.1   83.9     .61615    7.54733    8.16348        3.12268 -15.21808

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.7 86.0 80.0 76.3 72.2
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            57   45   .570   90.4   71.6   69.34683   22.23112   91.57795        2.25297  11.37564
Angels            55   45   .532   86.8   75.2   28.69630   42.49457   71.19086       -5.06023 -12.34097
Rangers           48   52   .472   76.4   85.6     .75949    3.76739    4.52687         .93470  -0.27156
Mariners          46   56   .495   75.6   86.4     .36998    2.31802    2.68800       -1.48374  -0.85545
Athletics         45   57   .550   77.0   85.0     .82741    4.41966    5.24707       -1.79533  -7.49928

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  88.0 85.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  88.6 82.9 75.9 70.9 61.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         53   46   .516   87.2   74.8   67.82420    4.95782   72.78202        6.67499  -2.19498
Mets              52   49   .492   83.9   78.1   30.68013    7.99061   38.67075       -9.75039   1.16194
Braves            46   55   .424   73.2   88.8     .56742     .15884     .72626       -0.36504  -1.07473
Marlins           42   59   .485   73.8   88.2     .92775     .15496    1.08271       -0.59321  -1.48992
Phillies          38   64   .380   62.1   99.9     .00050     .00000     .00050       -0.00062    .00037

Average wins by position in NL Central:  98.8 91.2 84.7 76.0 70.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         64   37   .550   98.2   63.8   84.54920   14.78541   99.33461       -0.24362    .08499
Pirates           59   41   .519   90.8   71.2   13.72920   70.93401   84.66321        1.81783  12.03156
Cubs              53   47   .512   85.4   76.6    1.71373   38.95008   40.66382         .76646 -33.22788
Reds              45   54   .482   74.8   87.2     .00733     .89097     .89830         .06475  -0.28530
Brewers           44   58   .455   71.6   90.4     .00053     .09768     .09821       -0.10812  -0.35367

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.6 87.0 80.6 76.0 70.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           57   45   .570   91.3   70.7   69.13938   19.17417   88.31354         .33870  -2.26151
Giants            56   45   .528   87.7   74.3   28.84758   35.49171   64.33928         .41913  23.19206
Diamondbacks      49   51   .498   79.4   82.6    1.57447    4.94116    6.51563         .68065   4.10626
Padres            48   53   .449   76.7   85.3     .41959    1.38545    1.80505         .40258    .35416
Rockies           43   56   .449   71.0   91.0     .01899     .08713     .10612       -0.10407  -0.04335

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.8 87.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.