Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri Jul 1 08:00:58 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  95.2 89.8 84.9 77.8 71.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           47   31   .530   89.9   72.1   32.13183   33.12625   65.25808       -4.60627  15.52024
Blue Jays         43   38   .542   86.9   75.1   14.99319   28.76871   43.76190       -6.22762 -15.96697
Red Sox           42   36   .595   92.3   69.7   52.08856   27.71880   79.80736       -0.12700  -9.90770
Yankees           39   39   .465   75.4   86.6     .48484    1.48581    1.97065         .32863  -1.07032
Rays              33   45   .503   74.6   87.4     .30158    1.07570    1.37728       -0.30159  -2.43516

Average wins by position in AL Central:  98.5 88.2 82.8 77.2 58.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           48   30   .580   98.1   63.9   89.79140    6.80165   96.59305        1.31821  10.17628
Royals            42   36   .513   86.0   76.0    6.77523   30.61512   37.39035        5.16888   4.02077
Tigers            41   38   .497   82.1   79.9    2.20237   13.67540   15.87777        1.53490  -7.25339
White Sox         40   39   .484   80.4   81.6    1.23100    8.18730    9.41830         .93974  -1.08811
Twins             25   53   .407   58.2  103.8     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00010  -0.00038

Average wins by position in AL west:  94.8 87.3 81.4 71.2 64.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           51   29   .508   93.8   68.2   77.44175   10.87439   88.31614       -2.08037   1.03167
Astros            42   37   .515   85.5   76.5   13.81218   21.13443   34.94661         .23868   8.00055
Mariners          40   39   .518   83.9   78.1    8.69302   16.45074   25.14375        3.85751  -0.59687
Athletics         35   44   .419   68.6   93.4     .03498     .04900     .08398       -0.05101    .01382
Angels            32   47   .441   67.7   94.3     .01807     .03670     .05477         .00738  -0.44446

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.9 89.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.4 86.6 80.0 69.7 62.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         48   32   .592   98.1   63.9   93.57280    4.27919   97.85199         .26091   4.03095
Mets              41   37   .489   82.3   79.7    2.54308   17.22655   19.76964        1.91806  -2.37787
Marlins           41   38   .508   84.2   77.8    3.87705   26.81733   30.69438       -6.71471    .03148
Phillies          35   45   .408   68.7   93.3     .00592     .13872     .14464       -0.02538    .12667
Braves            27   52   .432   63.4   98.6     .00115     .00446     .00561         .00222  -0.00383

Average wins by position in NL Central:  106.7 91.2 78.9 69.2 57.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              51   27   .643  106.6   55.4   96.99652    2.90876   99.90528       -0.00591    .12727
Cardinals         40   38   .588   91.1   70.9    2.97867   76.38324   79.36191       -3.03221  -1.34081
Pirates           38   41   .480   78.4   83.6     .02392    5.99674    6.02066         .02432   2.95533
Brewers           35   43   .426   69.6   92.4     .00090     .15402     .15492       -0.13845    .07469
Reds              29   51   .372   58.3  103.7     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00008  -0.00072

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.7 88.0 80.7 75.4 67.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            50   31   .541   93.0   69.0   68.30256   19.67990   87.98246        2.24880  -1.89131
Dodgers           44   37   .551   88.7   73.3   28.64301   36.70704   65.35005        6.37855   1.46392
Rockies           37   41   .502   78.8   83.2    1.94047    6.16340    8.10387       -0.59019   1.57098
Diamondbacks      36   45   .508   77.3   84.7    1.09543    3.45918    4.55461       -0.31618  -4.77293
Padres            33   46   .440   68.2   93.8     .01854     .08146     .10000       -0.00972    .00617

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  93.0 88.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.