Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Apr 25 10:03:53 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  98.4 90.2 84.2 78.4 70.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           10    7   .508   82.0   80.0   12.93288   17.90775 
Yankees           10    7   .569   91.9   70.1   44.53273   22.92676   67.45948        4.24604  39.36174
Blue Jays          9    8   .517   82.4   79.6   13.61859   18.59116   32.20975       -7.37237   2.06819
Rays               9    8   .530   84.4   77.6   17.80923   21.25699   39.06622        8.48236  -1.21221
Orioles            7   10   .520   81.1   80.9   11.10658   16.48211 

Average wins by position in AL Central:  97.8 88.0 80.3 73.2 64.3
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            12    4   .554   92.0   69.0   51.01790   19.49575 
Tigers            11    6   .540   88.8   73.2   34.51558   22.67462 
Indians            6    9   .479   75.3   86.7    5.63398    7.93905 
White Sox          6    9   .483   75.3   85.7    5.73680    8.71975 
Twins              6   10   .460   72.3   89.7    3.09573    5.20433 

Average wins by position in AL west:  94.2 85.4 78.8 72.3 63.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros             9    7   .508   82.5   79.5   24.77203   11.32024   36.09228        7.83062  11.30659
Angels             8    9   .474   75.9   86.1    9.96523    6.11742 
Athletics          8   10   .556   88.4   73.6   48.33632   11.32993   59.66625       -4.09113  11.07081
Mariners           7    9   .489   77.6   84.4   13.13323    7.48243   20.61566        1.03448  -0.70026
Rangers            6   10   .446   69.7   92.3    3.79319    2.55170    6.34489       -2.47156 -12.52854

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.3 89.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.5 84.3 78.2 72.0 63.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              13    4   .492   85.5   76.5   41.45883    9.58619   51.04501       -4.11384   7.62387
Braves             8    8   .484   80.3   81.7   22.62815    8.67811   31.30626       -8.32058  -7.28958
Nationals          7   10   .479   77.6   84.4   16.17283    6.59931   22.77214         .18717  -7.71327
Marlins            6   11   .479   76.9   85.1   14.23308    6.39182   20.62490        2.13413  -1.96909
Phillies           6   11   .441   70.6   91.4    5.50712    2.70738    8.21449        1.90317  -7.32886

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.8 88.8 81.7 74.0 61.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         11    4   .531   90.4   71.6   41.33943   22.48885   63.82827        3.10385  21.34897
Cubs               9    7   .535   89.0   73.0   35.47709   23.66755   59.14464        4.07939  13.95744
Pirates            9    8   .481   79.3   82.7   10.08693   13.71611   23.80304         .63002  -4.62801
Reds               8    9   .496   81.2   80.8   12.48288   16.89299   29.37587       -0.66330  -2.49264
Brewers            3   14   .422   64.1   97.9     .61368    1.21885    1.83253       -0.43071 -10.21554

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.0 89.4 82.9 76.5 68.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           10    6   .551   91.7   70.3   45.78673   22.44404   68.23077        6.11713  12.60377
Rockies           10    7   .496   82.6   79.4   15.18651   19.27047   34.45698        2.91228  -6.46927
Padres            10    8   .524   86.9   75.1   25.96421   24.52901   50.49322       -1.53069   3.89093
Diamondbacks       8    8   .478   78.0   84.0    7.94998   12.40790   20.35788       -3.68236 -12.14578
Giants             7   11   .477   75.8   86.2    5.11258    9.40141   14.51399       -2.32566    .82705

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.9 88.6

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.