Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Fri May 29 08:00:36 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.3 85.8 81.0 76.3 69.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           25   23   .553   88.4   73.6   50.97776   14.60004   65.57780       -2.65791  -1.03372
Rays              24   24   .530   83.6   78.4   23.11073   15.92053   39.03127         .52835 -11.86940
Orioles           22   24   .509   79.6   82.4   11.58338    9.98607   21.56945         .09967  -2.47330
Red Sox           22   26   .468   74.3   87.7    3.51215    3.52359    7.03574        2.46769    .12366
Blue Jays         22   27   .516   79.4   82.6   10.81598    9.42982   20.24580        1.53652   1.63688

Average wins by position in AL Central:  97.0 89.6 83.4 77.2 67.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            28   18   .568   93.7   68.3   56.55935   27.51249   84.07184         .25755  -6.80294
Twins             28   18   .473   81.5   80.5    6.79130   20.30446   27.09577        1.26882   9.25398
Tigers            28   21   .549   89.5   72.5   30.11070   38.23577   68.34646       -6.94576  -3.74673
Indians           22   25   .523   81.1   80.9    6.29266   19.00195   25.29461        2.10461   9.40914
White Sox         21   25   .433   69.1   92.9     .24599    1.34750    1.59349       -0.03224  -1.60865

Average wins by position in AL west:  92.6 84.8 80.0 75.5 69.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            30   18   .538   90.5   71.5   67.50110    9.21908   76.72019         .33806   2.65698
Angels            24   24   .487   78.2   83.8    8.32424    7.99554   16.31978        5.65325  -5.34005
Mariners          23   24   .494   78.8   83.2    9.76259    8.88592   18.64851       -1.45418   4.10077
Rangers           23   25   .487   77.8   84.2    7.93670    7.33896   15.27565       -5.24950   2.35430
Athletics         18   32   .536   77.3   84.7    6.47538    6.69827   13.17365        2.08508   3.33908

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.1 87.4

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.2 83.6 77.5 71.9 64.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         28   19   .506   88.1   73.9   58.49848    8.95747   67.45595       -0.52915   4.34682
Mets              27   21   .485   83.6   78.4   29.91254   11.78907   41.70161       -0.54519  -5.12952
Braves            23   24   .438   74.7   87.3    5.58290    3.22386    8.80676       -3.36416 -11.64334
Phillies          19   30   .419   67.6   94.4     .75229     .45475    1.20704         .04189  -1.53594
Marlins           18   30   .480   74.6   87.4    5.25378    2.95425    8.20803       -0.04608  -5.03883

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.7 88.8 82.1 73.5 63.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         31   16   .549   95.7   66.3   70.36143   18.65340   89.01483       -0.72906   4.71559
Cubs              25   21   .510   85.1   76.9   13.25311   29.71816   42.97126       -0.59574  -2.65399
Pirates           25   22   .522   85.9   76.1   15.30973   32.32736   47.63709        6.24850  28.10656
Reds              19   27   .471   73.8   88.2    1.02988    4.46627    5.49615       -0.28765 -11.29140
Brewers           16   32   .425   64.5   97.5     .04586     .25458     .30044       -0.03364  -0.72520

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.0 89.4 81.9 75.6 68.4
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            29   20   .533   89.8   72.2   27.22611   40.92461   68.15072        5.40616   4.01618
Dodgers           28   18   .579   95.7   66.3   66.85019   22.22872   89.07891       -0.94286   1.21592
Padres            23   26   .460   75.7   86.3    1.29407    6.33073    7.62480       -3.53260  -0.78079
Diamondbacks      21   25   .501   79.7   82.3    4.04598   14.35657   18.40255       -1.02856  -4.53011
Rockies           19   26   .457   72.5   89.5     .58366    3.36020    3.94386       -0.06185    .92806

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.3 88.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.