Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Apr 24 07:44:22 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.1 85.3 79.7 74.1 66.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           12    9   .487   81.4   80.6   22.25574   12.36101   34.61675       -3.22429  -5.97245
Blue Jays         11   10   .471   77.9   84.1   13.72530    9.05595   22.78125       -1.85639  -6.00114
Orioles           10   10   .461   75.7   86.3    9.98820    7.13498   17.12318         .89456  -4.37985
Rays              10   11   .533   86.2   75.8   41.19825   13.07214   54.27039       -3.94718  20.06852
Red Sox           10   12   .480   77.4   84.6   12.83251    8.47379   21.30630        4.71021  -4.56955

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.3 87.2 81.8 76.5 69.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
White Sox         11   11   .507   82.9   79.1   22.51712   16.19438   38.71150        6.11765  -1.16183
Tigers            10    8   .502   82.4   79.6   22.10895   15.05282   37.16176       -6.92793   2.96212
Royals            10   10   .498   81.2   80.8   18.09782   14.45912   32.55694       -2.97172   3.39493
Twins             10   10   .507   82.7   79.3   22.18209   15.72336   37.90545        3.93623   8.69042
Indians           10   11   .493   79.9   82.1   15.09403   13.01751   28.11154        1.59117  -5.97964

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.3 87.6 81.0 74.4 65.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           14    8   .509   85.3   76.7   25.85129   22.32231   48.17360       10.65926  28.51358
Athletics         13    8   .545   90.7   71.3   48.90387   20.56190   69.46577       -3.90931  -0.05807
Angels            10   11   .507   81.9   80.1   16.49183   18.26879   34.76063       -2.93934    .68528
Mariners           8   13   .482   76.3   85.7    6.57968   10.44875   17.02842       -0.98263 -33.35922
Astros             7   15   .452   70.2   91.8    2.17333    3.85319    6.02652       -1.15030  -2.83307

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.1 87.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.3 88.8 82.5 76.3 67.9
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            14    7   .556   92.5   69.5   52.36077   19.05577   71.41653        3.76102   1.81681
Nationals         12   10   .521   84.9   77.1   20.41557   21.20266   41.61823        2.56974 -10.52155
Mets              11   10   .460   74.4   87.6    4.04025    6.63779   10.67804         .78145  -7.13741
Phillies          10   11   .489   78.3   83.7    8.09425   11.15721   19.25146       -5.69607   2.86513
Marlins           10   12   .523   82.6   79.4   15.08917   17.60514   32.69431       -3.50934   9.31237

Average wins by position in NL Central:  98.2 89.5 83.0 76.3 66.8
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           16    6   .554   93.2   68.8   51.75988   21.78976   73.54964        4.36306   7.18298
Cardinals         12   10   .530   86.1   75.9   21.46811   24.43107   45.89918       -0.97579   1.90348
Reds              10   11   .532   84.4   77.6   17.59049   21.77656   39.36705        2.20643   5.33808
Pirates            9   13   .507   79.2   82.8    7.24454   13.66077   20.90531       -0.70772  -0.03065
Cubs               7   13   .464   70.9   91.1    1.93698    3.99644    5.93342       -2.84945  -3.52992

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.3 85.3 79.0 72.3 61.2
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           13    9   .482   79.9   82.1   17.99488    8.45711   26.45198        6.63967 -15.40174
Giants            12   10   .479   78.7   83.3   14.39270    7.92719   22.31989        6.17930 -11.57728
Rockies           12   11   .532   86.5   75.5   41.61232   11.20753   52.81985       -7.95296  16.90629
Padres            10   12   .513   82.5   79.5   25.20916   10.63333   35.84248       -5.21939   5.42041
Diamondbacks       6   18   .423   63.4   98.6     .79095     .46169    1.25264         .41005  -2.54702

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.7 88.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.