Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Sep 24 07:59:36 EDT 2016
Average wins by position in AL East: 94.7 89.1 86.6 82.9 69.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 90 64 .630 94.7 67.3 99.27377 .72615 99.99992 .00117 1.99239 Blue Jays 84 69 .566 88.8 73.2 .72327 80.21784 80.94111 4.68988 2.65543 Orioles 83 71 .516 86.9 75.1 .00297 34.20961 34.21258 2.90207 -35.34726 Yankees 79 74 .501 83.0 79.0 .00000 .53832 .53832 -1.50609 -2.72435 Rays 65 88 .512 69.3 92.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 95.0 87.7 80.8 76.4 58.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 90 63 .569 95.0 67.0 99.81175 .18817 99.99992 .00156 .21774 Tigers 83 70 .517 87.7 74.3 .18825 61.03382 61.22207 6.15520 44.62592 Royals 77 77 .462 80.8 81.2 .00000 .00046 .00046 -0.01560 -0.08046 White Sox 72 81 .468 76.5 85.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00159 Twins 55 99 .426 58.4 103.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.2 86.6 84.6 72.2 69.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 91 63 .489 95.2 66.8 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00292 Mariners 81 72 .510 85.9 76.1 .00000 15.17528 15.17528 1.63896 -7.55058 Astros 81 73 .504 85.4 76.6 .00000 7.91036 7.91036 -13.86712 -3.79014 Angels 68 86 .444 71.9 90.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Athletics 66 87 .442 69.9 92.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 89.4 87.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.8 86.4 79.8 72.3 67.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 89 64 .593 94.8 67.2 99.99660 .00340 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 82 72 .504 86.4 75.6 .00340 83.85756 83.86096 13.21998 -3.28537 Marlins 76 78 .486 79.8 82.2 .00000 .05627 .05627 -0.18791 -1.31881 Phillies 69 85 .408 72.3 89.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 63 91 .446 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 104.0 85.2 80.4 73.8 66.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 98 55 .649 104.0 58.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 80 73 .541 85.2 76.8 .00000 55.32090 55.32090 -4.00721 30.66162 Pirates 77 76 .466 80.4 81.6 .00000 .45096 .45096 .27711 .25792 Brewers 70 84 .473 73.8 88.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 63 90 .406 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 92.5 85.4 76.8 69.1 67.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 88 66 .565 92.5 69.5 99.92610 .07358 99.99968 .00525 .16486 Giants 81 73 .534 85.4 76.6 .07390 60.23733 60.31123 -9.30713 -26.45362 Rockies 73 81 .502 76.8 85.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 -0.02661 Padres 65 89 .425 68.4 93.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 64 89 .446 67.7 94.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 87.0 85.7
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
