Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Oct 2 08:02:23 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.0 91.0 80.0 76.0 75.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 93 69 .545 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Yankees 91 71 .630 91.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 80 82 .540 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.01204 Blue Jays 76 86 .462 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 75 87 .448 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 102.0 85.0 80.0 67.0 64.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 102 60 .638 102.0 60.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 85 77 .497 85.0 77.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 1.37958 Royals 80 82 .453 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.07044 White Sox 67 95 .434 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 64 98 .427 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 101.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 75.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 101 61 .608 101.0 61.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Angels 80 82 .492 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -1.18799 Mariners 78 84 .501 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 78 84 .481 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.10911 Athletics 75 87 .489 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.0 85.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.0 77.0 72.0 70.0 66.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 97 65 .568 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 77 85 .473 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Braves 72 90 .441 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 70 92 .437 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 66 96 .427 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.0 86.0 83.0 75.0 68.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 92 70 .558 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .15037 Brewers 86 76 .508 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -13.03166 Cardinals 83 79 .534 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -11.50803 Pirates 75 87 .434 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 68 94 .458 68.0 94.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 104.0 93.0 87.0 71.0 64.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 104 58 .612 104.0 58.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 93 69 .577 93.0 69.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 87 75 .506 87.0 75.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 24.38932 Padres 71 91 .408 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 64 98 .413 64.0 98.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.0 87.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
