Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Aug 24 07:51:15 EDT 2019


Average wins by position in AL East:  100.1 94.7 87.0 58.8 51.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           84   46   .558   99.9   59.1   94.31740    5.38920   99.70660         .21867    .10236
Rays              76   54   .591   94.8   67.2    5.66030   70.29732   75.95762         .67166  -8.52088
Red Sox           69   61   .563   87.0   75.0     .02230    2.57617    2.59847         .51779   2.20807
Blue Jays         52   79   .402   58.8   89.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Orioles           41   88   .374   51.9  106.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  98.8 93.1 73.0 58.1 51.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             77   51   .580   98.5   63.5   86.30950    9.88886   96.19836       -1.91692  -1.64343
Indians           75   54   .532   93.4   68.6   13.69050   42.27836   55.96886         .56967 -20.06358
White Sox         59   69   .411   73.0   87.0     .00000     .00010     .00010         .00010    .00010
Royals            45   84   .390   58.0  104.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            39   87   .352   51.9  109.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.0 91.7 77.1 74.1 70.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            83   47   .654  103.0   57.0   98.93030    1.00430   99.93460         .02063    .05297
Athletics         74   53   .558   91.7   66.3    1.06970   68.56550   69.63520       -0.07990  27.89740
Rangers           63   67   .456   75.9   84.1     .00000     .00020     .00020       -0.00080  -0.02945
Angels            63   68   .478   74.8   85.2     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00090  -0.00355
Mariners          55   74   .477   70.4   91.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  96.4 94.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.8 90.3 85.0 80.7 60.4
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            78   52   .524   95.4   66.6   85.40658   14.40372   99.81030         .18195   1.38153
Nationals         71   57   .556   90.3   71.7   14.12592   78.67717   92.80309        3.83537   7.90916
Mets              67   61   .513   84.4   77.6     .39712   31.52009   31.91720       -5.54843  12.71132
Phillies          66   61   .454   81.5   80.5     .07038    8.15527    8.22565       -4.15340 -12.72389
Marlins           46   81   .410   60.4  101.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  89.2 86.0 82.8 78.1 68.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         69   58   .518   87.0   75.0   42.97276   22.72583   65.69859        9.83491   8.57002
Cubs              69   59   .534   87.1   74.9   45.12314   22.07448   67.19762       -8.21442   6.40454
Brewers           66   62   .522   83.7   78.3   11.53254   13.77125   25.30380        6.48880  -6.25443
Reds              60   67   .527   78.5   83.5     .37156    1.09774    1.46930       -0.74713  -2.35376
Pirates           53   75   .444   68.4   93.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00427

Average wins by position in NL West:  106.3 82.0 78.2 75.0 71.7
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           85   45   .666  106.3   55.7   99.97827     .00224   99.98051       -0.00071    .02576
Diamondbacks      64   65   .535   81.3   80.7     .01587    6.91940    6.93527       -1.78074 -12.75421
Giants            63   65   .460   78.0   84.0     .00567     .60230     .60796         .10316  -2.51103
Padres            59   68   .484   74.7   87.3     .00020     .04674     .04694         .00166  -0.32971
Rockies           58   71   .473   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00377     .00377       -0.00103  -0.07104

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  90.4 86.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.