Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon May 22 08:00:25 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  99.7 90.3 84.2 78.4 69.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           25   16   .603   97.8   64.2   72.63509   19.44002   92.07512        1.89428  -0.19531
Orioles           25   17   .497   82.5   79.5    6.16953   25.27740   31.44692       -2.67725 -13.82934
Rays              23   23   .565   87.4   74.6   14.58029   41.65084   56.23113       -3.27487  13.02524
Red Sox           22   21   .524   82.4   79.6    6.16853   24.35965   30.52819        6.98968  -0.95849
Blue Jays         19   26   .474   72.2   89.8     .44656    3.44033    3.88689         .08623  -5.23746

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.9 84.8 79.6 74.5 67.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           23   19   .541   88.3   73.7   55.03897   10.60314   65.64211        2.61393   7.96851
Twins             22   18   .494   81.5   80.5   19.60202   11.07296   30.67498       -2.70581    .19226
Tigers            21   21   .480   78.0   84.0   10.44577    6.86133   17.30710       -4.64304  -2.38710
White Sox         20   22   .496   78.9   83.1   12.24221    8.13323   20.37544        3.02764   2.26728
Royals            18   25   .458   71.6   90.4    2.67103    1.77936    4.45039         .03098  -2.83053

Average wins by position in AL west:  96.8 85.5 80.0 75.2 69.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            29   15   .562   95.8   66.2   82.58447    7.55264   90.13711       -1.17867  -1.30091
Rangers           24   21   .480   79.2   82.8    5.93511   12.53840   18.47351        3.82392   8.59230
Angels            23   23   .487   78.3   83.7    4.38800   10.71676   15.10476        2.95396   4.08350
Athletics         20   24   .503   78.6   83.4    5.12258   11.30005   16.42263       -4.60605   4.06150
Mariners          20   25   .475   74.7   87.3    1.96984    5.27387    7.24371       -2.33496 -13.45148

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.8 87.7

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.4 81.0 75.2 70.2 63.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         26   17   .519   90.2   71.8   79.46454    2.94234   82.40688        3.56837  -6.93953
Braves            18   23   .464   75.6   86.4    8.64458    4.04036   12.68493       -1.69913   7.13989
Mets              18   24   .435   70.4   91.6    2.73323    1.21876    3.95199       -2.36773  -2.33123
Phillies          15   26   .467   73.6   88.4    5.19813    2.91981    8.11793       -1.52671 -13.84528
Marlins           15   28   .464   71.7   90.3    3.95953    1.58534    5.54486       -1.29907  -3.66579

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.6 86.4 81.7 76.9 70.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           25   19   .483   82.0   80.0   17.36001   12.16785   29.52786       -5.92377    .38245
Cardinals         22   19   .528   86.5   75.5   37.75345   14.55628   52.30972        2.62367  -9.54297
Cubs              22   20   .515   84.9   77.1   29.29098   14.79836   44.08934        7.44214  11.90363
Reds              20   23   .500   79.3   82.7   10.87991    8.54808   19.42799       -4.03634 -13.07253
Pirates           20   24   .462   75.2   86.8    4.71565    4.10286    8.81851         .91373   3.09241

Average wins by position in NL West:  98.8 92.0 85.4 73.4 63.6
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rockies           28   17   .524   90.5   71.5   26.41288   44.91979   71.33266        4.70827   6.92975
Diamondbacks      26   19   .557   91.7   70.3   32.52800   43.64910   76.17710       -5.12528  18.57810
Dodgers           26   19   .564   93.3   68.7   40.73230   41.37969   82.11199        3.38384   1.44103
Giants            19   26   .445   71.6   90.4     .28749    2.67330    2.96079       -0.84311    .74254
Padres            16   30   .431   66.1   95.9     .03933     .49810     .53744         .18111  -0.81248

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.8 88.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.