Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Aug 19 08:01:58 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 111.2 100.9 83.7 71.9 51.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 88 36 .620 111.2 50.8 97.98675 1.98145 99.96820 .00448 .01452 Yankees 77 46 .600 100.9 61.1 2.01325 97.53225 99.54550 -0.00932 -0.10387 Rays 62 61 .550 83.7 78.3 .00000 .37089 .37089 -0.40489 -1.48323 Blue Jays 55 68 .447 72.0 90.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 -0.00005 Orioles 37 86 .386 51.5 110.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.6 76.7 67.3 61.7 53.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 70 52 .554 93.6 68.4 99.92410 .00008 99.92418 -0.00098 .08556 Twins 58 64 .434 76.6 85.4 .07430 .00238 .07668 -0.00178 -0.08564 Tigers 51 73 .396 66.9 95.1 .00160 .00000 .00160 .00098 -0.00250 White Sox 45 77 .406 62.1 99.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00032 -0.00040 Royals 38 85 .359 53.2 108.8 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.6 95.2 89.0 80.9 71.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 74 49 .635 98.8 63.2 72.25428 25.65959 97.91387 -0.94609 -1.50506 Athletics 74 49 .561 95.8 66.2 26.38268 63.68020 90.06289 1.41098 11.98991 Mariners 71 53 .504 89.2 72.8 1.35963 10.69152 12.05115 -0.06188 -8.67986 Angels 63 62 .517 80.9 81.1 .00340 .08164 .08504 .00901 -0.22928 Rangers 55 70 .461 71.4 90.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 -0.00010 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 101.1 95.1
Average wins by position in NL East: 91.0 87.1 82.4 71.0 63.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 68 54 .547 89.5 72.5 59.04613 15.67889 74.72502 -2.43220 2.66840 Phillies 68 55 .507 87.9 74.1 36.45339 20.97750 57.43089 -3.38432 -11.04891 Nationals 62 62 .543 83.1 78.9 4.50011 6.19210 10.69221 -2.65287 -15.90306 Mets 53 69 .456 70.9 91.1 .00038 .00005 .00043 .00009 .00025 Marlins 49 76 .404 63.7 98.3 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 93.7 89.1 85.9 80.3 72.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 71 51 .548 93.1 68.9 77.66135 16.72363 94.38498 -0.78860 3.79479 Cardinals 68 56 .532 87.6 74.4 10.46786 40.11849 50.58635 9.05183 25.24769 Brewers 68 57 .523 87.6 74.4 11.63054 39.76315 51.39369 -2.66297 -13.49473 Pirates 62 62 .496 80.6 81.4 .23978 2.16009 2.39987 .93678 -7.02575 Reds 54 69 .470 72.2 89.8 .00048 .00083 .00131 .00099 -0.01040
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.8 87.6 84.6 79.3 63.8 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 68 56 .544 87.8 74.2 34.05059 20.57204 54.62264 -3.69548 8.86397 Rockies 67 56 .502 86.3 75.7 19.63284 17.36748 37.00032 9.45593 21.50360 Dodgers 66 58 .592 88.7 73.3 45.89019 19.50290 65.39310 -3.28757 -13.36775 Giants 61 63 .483 79.7 82.3 .42638 .94282 1.36920 -0.54161 -1.22810 Padres 49 77 .427 63.8 98.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.1 88.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
