Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue Jun 27 08:00:33 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 95.0 87.3 82.4 77.4 71.5 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 42 34 .508 84.0 78.0 10.41007 33.60125 44.01131 3.78712 1.72762 Yankees 41 33 .602 93.9 68.1 76.86036 16.57921 93.43957 .55524 -3.50681 Rays 40 38 .543 84.7 77.3 11.14488 37.83905 48.98393 -1.29211 -5.90269 Orioles 37 38 .440 74.1 87.9 .32853 3.50218 3.83071 -0.02179 -0.77718 Blue Jays 36 39 .485 77.0 85.0 1.25617 7.89858 9.15474 -0.47590 -5.22545
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.8 82.4 77.9 73.8 68.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 40 35 .565 90.1 71.9 82.91609 4.69813 87.61422 1.81362 -2.45238 Twins 39 35 .460 78.8 83.2 7.23927 9.28949 16.52875 -3.48684 4.17972 Royals 37 37 .465 77.7 84.3 5.98972 6.91188 12.90160 -0.65133 -1.91012 Tigers 33 42 .476 74.6 87.4 2.67622 2.49854 5.17476 -0.06819 -4.10970 White Sox 32 43 .473 72.6 89.4 1.17872 1.41293 2.59165 -0.35574 -5.49367
Average wins by position in AL west: 103.9 86.1 81.6 77.9 73.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 52 25 .611 103.9 58.1 99.07571 .78924 99.86495 .00153 .17465 Angels 41 39 .507 81.7 80.3 .40836 28.01596 28.42432 5.42286 13.43271 Mariners 39 39 .497 79.6 82.4 .19516 17.49903 17.69419 -1.05328 2.21667 Rangers 38 38 .491 79.5 82.5 .20054 17.41726 17.61780 -3.69363 6.56588 Athletics 34 42 .511 78.1 83.9 .12023 12.04726 12.16750 -0.48157 1.08076 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 89.1 86.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.9 82.0 76.3 71.1 60.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 45 31 .552 93.6 68.4 92.43943 1.75609 94.19551 -0.84712 5.46643 Braves 36 39 .456 75.0 87.0 1.14703 1.78168 2.92871 .50679 -0.24462 Marlins 34 40 .502 79.8 82.2 5.56829 6.74755 12.31584 1.52708 -4.33224 Mets 34 41 .465 74.3 87.7 .84333 1.31936 2.16268 .35132 .93410 Phillies 24 51 .415 61.2 100.8 .00193 .00203 .00396 -0.00152 -0.00620
Average wins by position in NL Central: 88.4 83.4 79.4 74.9 68.9 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 41 37 .490 82.5 79.5 27.62169 4.61518 32.23687 -0.48653 1.39618 Cubs 39 37 .520 84.9 77.1 46.41784 4.56134 50.97918 3.55970 11.16054 Cardinals 35 40 .516 80.9 81.1 19.74730 3.88034 23.62764 2.43667 .62719 Pirates 35 41 .459 75.6 86.4 4.96285 1.00991 5.97275 -0.55851 -2.13347 Reds 31 44 .462 71.2 90.8 1.25033 .26978 1.52011 -0.87703 -3.19641
Average wins by position in NL West: 105.0 97.1 88.7 69.5 60.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 51 27 .612 103.8 58.2 76.17113 23.66918 99.84031 -0.04150 .98211 Diamondbacks 49 28 .569 97.3 64.7 21.73498 75.85566 97.59064 .54712 3.04239 Rockies 47 32 .500 89.5 72.5 2.09378 74.39202 76.48581 -6.13498 -13.75422 Padres 31 45 .431 68.4 93.6 .00010 .13666 .13676 .01638 .06638 Giants 28 51 .410 61.8 100.2 .00000 .00323 .00323 .00214 -0.00815 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 97.1 89.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
