Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Jul 16 07:52:21 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.3 90.8 83.2 78.5 73.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 56 38 .559 94.4 67.6 60.68760 38.62890 99.31650 .01110 -0.12700 Yankees 54 42 .576 92.4 69.6 37.82750 60.44460 98.27210 .03090 2.63620 Red Sox 46 48 .526 81.7 80.3 1.23350 46.19530 47.42880 .04650 12.60870 Orioles 46 51 .488 77.0 85.0 .10510 13.99160 14.09670 .00280 4.65780 Blue Jays 45 51 .489 77.2 84.8 .14630 16.00520 16.15150 .02070 -7.68460
Average wins by position in AL Central: 87.5 83.4 79.9 76.0 66.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 51 46 .491 84.3 77.7 42.56170 26.80840 69.37010 .02200 18.03960 White Sox 50 45 .501 83.8 78.2 37.65170 27.73260 65.38430 .03560 3.11330 Twins 48 49 .482 79.7 82.3 11.40460 19.23860 30.64320 -0.12530 -10.39350 Tigers 44 52 .525 78.9 83.1 8.36520 16.40720 24.77240 -0.02150 -6.25450 Royals 38 59 .435 66.8 95.2 .01680 .08130 .09810 .00060 -0.82380
Average wins by position in AL west: 85.3 80.7 76.3 70.4 65.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 49 47 .502 82.6 79.4 48.79400 12.97070 61.76470 -0.01270 3.82390 Mariners 48 49 .511 81.8 80.2 41.45210 14.24940 55.70150 -0.10370 -11.12040 Astros 47 51 .455 77.1 84.9 9.14120 6.83620 15.97740 .08040 -5.48770 Athletics 41 55 .413 68.8 93.2 .38130 .28030 .66160 .00970 -2.34980 Angels 38 59 .460 67.9 94.1 .23140 .12970 .36110 .00290 -0.63820 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.0 85.2 84.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.0 88.2 84.1 79.4 67.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 55 40 .539 91.1 70.9 58.86930 30.72610 89.59540 -0.02100 1.38170 Phillies 54 43 .471 83.9 78.1 8.00160 31.29510 39.29670 .08460 8.25260 Marlins 52 45 .561 88.4 73.6 30.26560 45.52400 75.78960 -0.02000 -8.38181 Nationals 48 49 .503 81.2 80.8 2.86200 17.02250 19.88450 -0.04500 -10.48150 Mets 40 57 .452 67.8 94.2 .00150 .01970 .02120 -0.00030 -0.06550
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.9 89.4 85.1 80.8 70.6 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 59 37 .602 98.7 63.3 92.86920 6.83180 99.70100 .00410 -0.07121 Cubs 54 42 .522 87.0 75.0 4.40820 61.45910 65.86730 -0.00880 -5.70900 Cardinals 50 45 .497 83.2 78.8 .77760 32.98820 33.76580 .04010 -4.00340 Pirates 50 47 .556 85.0 77.0 1.94460 47.20180 49.14640 -0.11480 7.78110 Reds 43 52 .435 70.8 91.2 .00040 .22690 .22730 -0.00050 -0.18360
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.0 82.8 77.5 72.3 64.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 61 36 .619 101.0 61.0 99.82790 .14620 99.97410 .00150 -0.02300 Diamondbacks 49 47 .478 81.3 80.7 .15370 20.04230 20.19600 .04410 13.47830 Padres 48 48 .458 77.8 84.2 .01670 5.93360 5.95030 .00580 -2.06720 Giants 41 55 .483 73.1 88.9 .00170 .58020 .58190 .02950 .10600 Rockies 39 59 .414 65.4 96.6 .00000 .00250 .00250 .00070 -0.01350 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.8 88.0 85.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
