Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Sep 23 07:25:43 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  96.0 84.1 81.6 78.5 71.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           93   63   .544   96.0   66.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Yankees           81   75   .499   84.0   78.0     .00000     .60357     .60357         .30241    .22958
Blue Jays         79   77   .511   82.1   79.9     .00000     .00105     .00105       -0.00044  -1.85054
Rays              75   81   .541   78.1   83.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00005
Red Sox           68   88   .451   70.8   91.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.5 88.1 85.3 74.6 68.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            86   70   .537   89.7   72.3   83.64290   15.42960   99.07250       -0.07628   1.07586
Royals            85   71   .506   88.5   74.5   16.29105   68.45980   84.75085        8.71719   3.10174
Indians           82   75   .513   85.1   77.9     .06605    4.58790    4.65395       -2.29220   3.51532
White Sox         72   84   .456   74.7   87.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             66   90   .449   68.6   93.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.9 89.1 86.2 71.7 65.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            96   61   .587   98.5   63.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         86   70   .576   89.5   72.5     .00000   98.63352   98.63352        4.27496  -0.05771
Mariners          83   73   .521   85.8   76.2     .00000   12.28457   12.28457      -10.92564  -6.01418
Astros            69   88   .477   71.4   90.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           63   93   .418   65.5   96.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.9 87.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.7 79.8 78.8 77.1 73.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         91   64   .578   95.5   66.5  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00069
Braves            76   80   .477   78.9   83.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -1.90894
Mets              76   80   .471   78.7   83.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00032
Marlins           74   81   .473   77.1   84.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.05162
Phillies          71   85   .449   73.8   88.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.4 88.1 82.9 74.8 71.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         88   69   .530   90.7   71.3   92.65440    7.34560  100.00000         .00000    .66559
Pirates           85   71   .549   88.2   73.8    7.34560   92.48132   99.82692         .43294  19.04752
Brewers           80   76   .502   83.2   78.8     .00000     .31757     .31757       -0.95256 -19.15590
Reds              72   84   .469   74.9   87.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00033
Cubs              69   88   .473   71.3   90.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.3 88.1 77.9 67.2 64.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           89   68   .571   92.1   69.9   97.26755    2.73245  100.00000         .00000    .00230
Giants            85   71   .525   88.3   73.7    2.73245   97.12307   99.85552         .51965   1.40109
Padres            75   81   .452   77.6   84.4     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00007
Rockies           65   92   .468   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      63   94   .426   65.2   96.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  88.9 87.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.