Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Apr 8 07:52:07 AM EDT 2026
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.9 86.8 79.8 73.0 64.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 8 2 .546 92.0 70.0 55.34250 23.08190 78.42440 5.62610 29.34370 Orioles 5 6 .485 78.5 83.5 11.79080 22.03080 33.82160 5.68720 -2.78330 Rays 5 6 .509 82.6 79.4 20.02060 28.15160 48.17220 -7.44580 7.94530 Blue Jays 4 7 .456 72.5 89.5 5.13400 12.39570 17.52970 -0.02130 -25.56000 Red Sox 3 8 .478 75.2 86.8 7.71210 16.66010 24.37220 -0.58420 -9.34840
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.5 85.4 79.2 73.1 64.8 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Guardians 7 5 .508 84.2 77.8 33.28290 21.58780 54.87070 4.95760 14.19350 Royals 5 6 .507 82.5 79.5 27.19080 21.52820 48.71900 -0.44930 7.06900 Twins 5 6 .485 78.8 83.2 17.30830 18.28120 35.58950 1.85280 -0.81680 Tigers 4 7 .480 76.9 85.1 13.51090 16.01650 29.52740 -1.46150 -7.23560 White Sox 4 7 .459 73.6 88.4 8.70710 11.68540 20.39250 -5.08770 -15.68920
Average wins by position in AL west: 94.6 86.7 80.6 74.6 66.4 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 6 5 .509 83.3 78.7 26.26410 24.41800 50.68210 2.85800 4.75490 Angels 6 6 .509 82.8 79.2 24.33720 24.78610 49.12330 -0.78930 7.13190 Astros 6 6 .483 78.4 83.6 13.66200 19.51730 33.17930 -6.18000 -9.42660 Mariners 4 8 .525 83.4 78.6 26.55680 25.14310 51.69990 2.96940 11.34070 Athletics 3 7 .472 75.0 87.0 9.17990 14.71630 23.89620 -1.93200 -10.91910 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.5 87.3 87.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.0 88.9 82.9 76.8 68.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 7 4 .520 85.0 77.0 24.47430 24.88190 49.35620 4.93270 8.28750 Braves 7 5 .536 87.1 74.9 31.10810 26.23040 57.33850 3.43420 16.28120 Marlins 6 5 .521 83.9 78.1 21.63520 24.16090 45.79610 -0.21240 1.71420 Phillies 6 5 .489 79.0 83.0 11.22300 18.01780 29.24080 -7.79170 -7.98970 Nationals 4 7 .502 79.2 82.8 11.55940 18.30810 29.86750 -5.89610 -13.02990
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.6 88.6 82.5 76.5 68.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 8 3 .513 85.1 76.9 26.01300 23.95240 49.96540 -6.54910 5.86000 Reds 8 3 .496 82.5 79.5 18.71080 22.32760 41.03840 .95430 2.88810 Pirates 7 4 .525 86.2 75.8 29.35770 24.66480 54.02250 6.14570 15.03910 Cardinals 6 5 .478 77.5 84.5 9.81540 15.24130 25.05670 -3.09080 -15.66560 Cubs 5 6 .506 81.2 80.8 16.10310 20.39060 36.49370 7.45220 -2.39930
Average wins by position in NL West: 96.4 87.1 80.4 74.0 65.6 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 9 2 .542 91.0 71.0 51.40250 19.57490 70.97740 1.92220 25.80760 Diamondbacks 5 6 .516 82.8 79.2 20.85720 21.58140 42.43860 -1.39190 2.80520 Padres 5 6 .470 75.3 86.7 7.43410 11.92880 19.36290 -4.49770 -11.99400 Rockies 5 6 .483 77.5 84.5 10.62460 14.66060 25.28520 1.83790 -12.19940 Giants 4 8 .491 77.1 84.9 9.68160 14.07850 23.76010 2.75050 -15.40500 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.4 89.2 86.2
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
