Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Apr 16 08:22:47 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.8 84.9 79.0 73.1 65.1
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays          8    6   .479   79.6   82.4   20.73631    9.21789   29.95420        2.82415   1.60472
Yankees            7    6   .487   80.3   81.7   23.02155    9.43398   32.45552       -1.00824   5.46261
Rays               7    7   .500   82.1   79.9   28.45736   10.14910   38.60646        4.85326  -0.62114
Orioles            6    7   .467   76.2   85.8   13.46848    6.82136   20.28984       -0.50857  -6.97531
Red Sox            5    9   .479   76.7   85.3   14.31630    7.03450   21.35080       -3.01124  -8.36581

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.4 87.5 81.6 75.7 67.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
White Sox          8    6   .513   84.6   77.4   27.84354   16.96420   44.80774        4.08882   5.60681
Tigers             6    4   .496   81.8   80.2   21.20420   14.32286   35.52706         .31323  -1.75734
Indians            6    7   .500   81.3   80.7   18.85411   14.37104   33.22515       -1.14575    .92490
Twins              6    7   .496   80.3   81.7   16.41706   13.42019   29.83725       -3.68475   1.18393
Royals             5    7   .496   79.7   82.3   15.68109   12.88398   28.56507        3.17014 -11.80200

Average wins by position in AL west:  98.3 89.0 81.8 74.8 65.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Athletics         10    4   .548   92.2   69.8   48.12892   23.04429   71.17320         .36861  27.20902
Mariners           7    6   .534   87.4   74.6   28.36242   25.81983   54.18225       -7.87414   4.38742
Rangers            7    7   .479   77.3   84.7    7.94458   12.49351   20.43809        4.32611  -8.18910
Angels             6    8   .504   80.5   81.5   12.10478   17.61566   29.72044       -1.17094   1.00468
Astros             5    9   .458   72.1   89.9    3.45931    6.40762    9.86693       -1.54069  -9.67338

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.2 87.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.1 88.4 82.0 75.6 67.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves             9    4   .544   89.9   72.1   42.60110   19.18130   61.78239       -3.74295  19.73815
Nationals          8    6   .525   85.5   76.5   25.69817   20.12330   45.82146       -5.47630   4.77993
Mets               7    7   .473   75.7   86.3    6.97783    8.79826   15.77609        2.11142  -8.41032
Phillies           6    7   .494   78.6   83.4   11.16956   11.93335   23.10291        1.48396  -4.20677
Marlins            6    9   .512   80.3   81.7   13.55335   14.10149   27.65483        5.32847 -14.78301

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.3 88.7 82.4 76.1 67.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           10    4   .542   90.0   72.0   42.12650   19.96282   62.08932       -7.90375  13.59194
Cardinals          9    5   .517   85.1   76.9   23.80961   20.19168   44.00129        9.18009  12.20954
Pirates            7    7   .504   80.9   81.1   13.90179   15.55775   29.45954       -4.85431  -9.63272
Reds               5    9   .513   80.2   81.8   12.86150   14.46533   27.32682        6.77697   8.22381
Cubs               4    8   .487   75.9   86.1    7.30060    9.32981   16.63041       -1.22072 -12.02740

Average wins by position in NL West:  94.0 85.8 79.5 73.0 63.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers            9    5   .508   84.2   77.8   31.15522   12.22587   43.38108       -3.98381  -1.52902
Giants             9    5   .488   80.7   81.3   20.51027   10.53452   31.04479        1.28168  -4.39569
Rockies            7    8   .513   82.8   79.2   26.84287   11.63093   38.47380        6.30147   4.91190
Padres             6    8   .500   79.9   82.1   18.74291    9.86926   28.61216       -2.39869  -0.73248
Diamondbacks       4   13   .449   68.2   93.8    2.74874    2.09434    4.84308       -2.88357  -7.73788

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.6 88.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.