Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun Aug 19 08:01:58 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  111.2 100.9 83.7 71.9 51.5
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           88   36   .620  111.2   50.8   97.98675    1.98145   99.96820         .00448    .01452
Yankees           77   46   .600  100.9   61.1    2.01325   97.53225   99.54550       -0.00932  -0.10387
Rays              62   61   .550   83.7   78.3     .00000     .37089     .37089       -0.40489  -1.48323
Blue Jays         55   68   .447   72.0   90.0     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00010  -0.00005
Orioles           37   86   .386   51.5  110.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.6 76.7 67.3 61.7 53.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           70   52   .554   93.6   68.4   99.92410     .00008   99.92418       -0.00098    .08556
Twins             58   64   .434   76.6   85.4     .07430     .00238     .07668       -0.00178  -0.08564
Tigers            51   73   .396   66.9   95.1     .00160     .00000     .00160         .00098  -0.00250
White Sox         45   77   .406   62.1   99.9     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00032  -0.00040
Royals            38   85   .359   53.2  108.8     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  99.6 95.2 89.0 80.9 71.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            74   49   .635   98.8   63.2   72.25428   25.65959   97.91387       -0.94609  -1.50506
Athletics         74   49   .561   95.8   66.2   26.38268   63.68020   90.06289        1.41098  11.98991
Mariners          71   53   .504   89.2   72.8    1.35963   10.69152   12.05115       -0.06188  -8.67986
Angels            63   62   .517   80.9   81.1     .00340     .08164     .08504         .00901  -0.22928
Rangers           55   70   .461   71.4   90.6     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00010  -0.00010

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  101.1 95.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  91.0 87.1 82.4 71.0 63.5
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            68   54   .547   89.5   72.5   59.04613   15.67889   74.72502       -2.43220   2.66840
Phillies          68   55   .507   87.9   74.1   36.45339   20.97750   57.43089       -3.38432 -11.04891
Nationals         62   62   .543   83.1   78.9    4.50011    6.19210   10.69221       -2.65287 -15.90306
Mets              53   69   .456   70.9   91.1     .00038     .00005     .00043         .00009    .00025
Marlins           49   76   .404   63.7   98.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.7 89.1 85.9 80.3 72.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              71   51   .548   93.1   68.9   77.66135   16.72363   94.38498       -0.78860   3.79479
Cardinals         68   56   .532   87.6   74.4   10.46786   40.11849   50.58635        9.05183  25.24769
Brewers           68   57   .523   87.6   74.4   11.63054   39.76315   51.39369       -2.66297 -13.49473
Pirates           62   62   .496   80.6   81.4     .23978    2.16009    2.39987         .93678  -7.02575
Reds              54   69   .470   72.2   89.8     .00048     .00083     .00131         .00099  -0.01040

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.8 87.6 84.6 79.3 63.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Diamondbacks      68   56   .544   87.8   74.2   34.05059   20.57204   54.62264       -3.69548   8.86397
Rockies           67   56   .502   86.3   75.7   19.63284   17.36748   37.00032        9.45593  21.50360
Dodgers           66   58   .592   88.7   73.3   45.89019   19.50290   65.39310       -3.28757 -13.36775
Giants            61   63   .483   79.7   82.3     .42638     .94282    1.36920       -0.54161  -1.22810
Padres            49   77   .427   63.8   98.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  90.1 88.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.