Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Oct 4 10:14:26 EDT 2021


Average wins by position in AL East:  100.0 92.0 92.0 91.0 52.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rays             100   62   .590  100.0   62.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Red Sox           92   70   .529   92.0   70.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000       21.25453  32.71403
Yankees           92   70   .550   92.0   70.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000       21.52535  25.13017
Blue Jays         91   71   .600   91.0   71.0     .00000     .00000     .00000      -25.69628 -51.75430
Orioles           52  110   .385   52.0  110.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  93.0 80.0 77.0 74.0 73.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
White Sox         93   69   .576   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Indians           80   82   .476   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            77   85   .440   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Royals            74   88   .449   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             73   89   .461   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.0 90.0 86.0 77.0 60.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            95   67   .604   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .05942
Mariners          90   72   .445   90.0   72.0     .00000     .00000     .00000      -17.08360  -5.26260
Athletics         86   76   .521   86.0   76.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.88674
Angels            77   85   .462   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           60  102   .400   60.0  102.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.0 92.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  88.6 82.0 77.0 67.0 65.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            88   73   .559   88.6   73.4  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000   6.97803
Phillies          82   80   .506   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -6.97837
Mets              77   85   .504   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           67   95   .454   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         65   97   .480   65.0   97.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  95.0 90.0 83.0 71.0 61.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           95   67   .551   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Cardinals         90   72   .516   90.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00740
Reds              83   79   .497   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00705
Cubs              71   91   .417   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Pirates           61  101   .369   61.0  101.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  107.0 106.0 79.0 74.4 52.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants           107   55   .627  107.0   55.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Dodgers          106   56   .655  106.0   56.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            79   83   .516   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           74   87   .474   74.4   87.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      52  110   .390   52.0  110.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  106.0 90.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.