Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Jun 18 08:01:40 EDT 2018
Average wins by position in AL East: 107.7 99.7 82.7 72.7 52.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 49 24 .592 101.7 60.3 33.04808 65.03873 98.08681 .88683 1.81551 Yankees 46 21 .621 105.7 56.3 66.88803 32.47992 99.36796 -0.09448 .92186 Blue Jays 33 38 .459 73.6 88.4 .00103 .38420 .38524 .15460 -0.03660 Rays 33 38 .534 81.8 80.2 .06285 5.78997 5.85282 1.49457 -0.86609 Orioles 20 50 .377 52.9 109.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 89.8 80.2 73.7 64.3 55.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 37 33 .537 89.1 72.9 84.62494 .32867 84.95361 .69770 -2.03149 Tigers 36 37 .452 76.3 85.7 5.88549 .33750 6.22299 .44623 2.89476 Twins 31 37 .476 77.8 84.2 9.39753 .59119 9.98871 -0.97810 -0.69353 White Sox 24 46 .425 63.5 98.5 .08634 .00112 .08746 -0.03596 -0.24324 Royals 22 49 .379 57.0 105.0 .00570 .00000 .00570 -0.00081 -0.03001
Average wins by position in AL west: 106.3 93.9 85.4 78.7 67.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 48 25 .644 105.9 56.1 91.74177 7.64852 99.39028 .17990 2.76807 Mariners 46 26 .537 93.2 68.8 7.62803 68.87033 76.49836 -3.05011 18.67772 Angels 38 34 .524 84.3 77.7 .53733 13.89719 14.43453 -0.61059 -17.80024 Athletics 36 36 .503 80.3 81.7 .09287 4.59711 4.68998 .90025 -5.32919 Rangers 29 44 .441 67.8 94.2 .00000 .03555 .03555 .00997 -0.04754 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 100.5 93.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 94.8 89.0 83.1 72.7 63.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 42 29 .543 91.8 70.2 52.96912 24.55706 77.52618 3.00694 8.13197 Nationals 37 31 .541 88.7 73.3 30.32153 28.30701 58.62854 -5.58984 -12.79416 Phillies 37 32 .515 85.9 76.1 16.44675 23.16995 39.61670 3.36096 7.52676 Mets 30 38 .452 72.1 89.9 .25473 .69490 .94963 .37789 -0.71968 Marlins 28 44 .415 64.5 97.5 .00787 .01375 .02162 -0.01506 .00890
Average wins by position in NL Central: 97.8 90.6 83.7 77.6 65.2 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 42 29 .537 91.0 71.0 27.00896 45.28008 72.28904 .12308 4.79222 Cubs 40 28 .585 96.0 66.0 68.01776 23.39016 91.40791 -1.34641 2.38993 Cardinals 37 32 .491 81.5 80.5 2.75599 13.74413 16.50012 5.00754 -5.72490 Pirates 35 36 .508 80.8 81.2 2.21298 11.41239 13.62537 -2.58842 -0.84329 Reds 26 45 .443 65.5 96.5 .00431 .03014 .03445 .01500 .00757
Average wins by position in NL West: 90.8 85.5 80.9 75.2 69.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Diamondbacks 39 32 .521 86.4 75.6 40.22333 10.19792 50.42125 -3.64281 -1.42101 Dodgers 37 33 .542 86.3 75.7 38.76662 10.45710 49.22372 -4.13424 14.89914 Giants 35 37 .516 82.6 79.4 17.97169 7.63852 25.61021 5.43207 -15.28584 Rockies 34 37 .452 74.3 87.7 2.14968 .83258 2.98226 -0.07185 -1.31237 Padres 34 40 .442 71.9 90.1 .88868 .27431 1.16299 .06513 .34474 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.4 88.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
