Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Tue Jul 5 07:51:39 EDT 2022


Average wins by position in AL East:  108.8 92.3 87.1 81.8 73.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           58   22   .629  108.8   53.2   98.45320    1.54450   99.99770       -0.00050    .01450
Red Sox           45   35   .557   89.2   72.8    1.08690   80.10850   81.19540        7.07600   1.29079
Blue Jays         44   37   .545   87.7   74.3     .37480   73.27600   73.65080       -5.05510 -10.83250
Rays              43   37   .516   83.7   78.3     .08480   44.77130   44.85610       -4.51530   6.21720
Orioles           37   44   .472   74.3   87.7     .00030    3.99030    3.99060        1.00810   1.76570

Average wins by position in AL Central:  88.8 83.1 77.8 68.8 61.1
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Twins             46   37   .511   86.7   75.3   60.12990   12.04940   72.17930        7.48240  14.99210
Guardians         40   38   .472   81.3   80.7   19.33200   13.67840   33.01040       -9.90910  -7.74340
White Sox         38   40   .477   81.2   80.8   20.31130   11.75730   32.06860       -3.09060 -11.45040
Tigers            32   47   .420   67.9   94.1     .21240     .20680     .41920         .22230    .19830
Royals            29   49   .402   62.5   99.5     .01440     .01150     .02590         .00350    .00290

Average wins by position in AL west:  105.0 84.7 79.1 73.8 55.7
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            52   27   .617  105.0   57.0   99.71360     .26820   99.98180         .00169    .51109
Mariners          40   42   .521   82.3   79.7     .21010   34.88090   35.09100        7.74690  20.21980
Rangers           37   41   .490   78.3   83.7     .05070   14.22870   14.27940       -1.62150  -4.70790
Angels            37   44   .496   77.0   85.0     .02560    9.22810    9.25370         .65110 -10.47820
Athletics         27   55   .379   55.7  106.3     .00000     .00010     .00010         .00010    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.6 88.3 88.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  98.3 92.7 87.5 79.5 59.8
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              50   30   .558   95.8   66.2   55.77230   38.82820   94.60050        1.39450   1.32430
Braves            47   34   .576   92.9   69.1   32.48680   54.20740   86.69420        1.69470   6.65600
Phillies          42   38   .565   88.9   73.1   10.99100   54.83360   65.82460        1.39380   9.96540
Marlins           38   40   .509   80.3   81.7     .74990   11.25450   12.00440        1.78380   4.75540
Nationals         29   53   .415   59.9  102.1     .00000     .00030     .00030       -0.00070  -0.00910

Average wins by position in NL Central:  92.7 85.8 72.0 64.9 58.4
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           47   35   .530   91.0   71.0   67.32430   14.81900   82.14330        1.97820  11.83960
Cardinals         44   38   .523   87.4   74.6   32.49350   24.39270   56.88620       -1.56410  -2.68730
Pirates           32   47   .392   64.0   98.0     .00560     .00610     .01170         .00040  -0.02260
Cubs              32   48   .470   71.0   91.0     .17550     .26050     .43600       -0.10000    .18410
Reds              27   52   .396   60.3  101.7     .00110     .00060     .00170         .00010  -0.02100

Average wins by position in NL West:  101.4 91.6 82.4 74.0 67.5
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           50   29   .607  100.8   61.2   85.78330   13.29120   99.07450         .14440   1.58020
Padres            47   35   .548   91.6   70.4   13.26900   68.94870   82.21770       -3.29940  -6.66251
Giants            40   38   .510   82.2   79.8     .93960   18.25980   19.19940       -3.64630 -27.48770
Diamondbacks      36   44   .455   72.6   89.4     .00630     .73630     .74260         .22790    .69840
Rockies           35   45   .440   69.6   92.4     .00180     .16110     .16290       -0.00730  -0.11320

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.5 91.1 88.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.