Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sun May 29 08:00:56 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  97.6 90.0 84.9 79.9 72.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           29   20   .590   95.2   66.8   64.60525   23.06783   87.67308       -0.86783   2.07234
Orioles           27   20   .522   84.6   77.4   12.04171   28.64718   40.68889       -4.38349 -16.21454
Blue Jays         26   25   .538   85.4   76.6   11.92165   32.43096   44.35261        4.12706  18.00135
Yankees           23   25   .481   75.9   86.1    1.48391    7.22972    8.71363       -1.70332    .38655
Rays              22   25   .545   83.8   78.2    9.94748   26.67776   36.62524        3.84548 -13.36118

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.9 86.3 80.9 74.4 60.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
White Sox         27   23   .511   84.7   77.3   25.52025   17.14831   42.66857       -2.71864 -13.09051
Indians           26   21   .530   88.6   73.4   48.22874   15.87493   64.10367        3.38534   9.52048
Royals            26   22   .492   82.7   79.3   18.73096   14.17751   32.90847        3.85639   7.19170
Tigers            24   24   .473   78.0   84.0    7.47260    7.33857   14.81117       -6.37301   1.28600
Twins             14   34   .411   61.1  100.9     .04745     .04707     .09452         .01489  -0.01468

Average wins by position in AL west:  91.4 83.8 78.3 73.0 66.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mariners          28   20   .525   88.8   73.2   62.33574    8.12869   70.46443       -1.89391  -6.67722
Rangers           28   21   .475   82.7   79.3   24.30901   11.21381   35.52282        3.20949  10.56151
Angels            22   27   .464   75.0   87.0    5.21236    3.21806    8.43042       -2.92823    .85831
Astros            21   29   .481   75.9   86.1    6.41810    3.83487   10.25297        1.62460   1.03635
Athletics         21   29   .434   70.5   91.5    1.72479     .96473    2.68951         .80519  -1.55646

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  91.3 87.8

Average wins by position in NL East:  97.3 88.8 82.1 74.0 63.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         29   21   .579   95.4   66.6   69.94395   15.38696   85.33091       -1.86937  -0.52731
Mets              28   20   .514   86.5   75.5   17.80568   24.00595   41.81163       -7.54147   3.63347
Phillies          26   23   .440   74.7   87.3    1.20065    2.98476    4.18541       -0.12919  -1.10663
Marlins           25   24   .521   84.5   77.5   11.00388   20.50546   31.50934       -2.70390  -9.71952
Braves            14   34   .440   64.4   97.6     .04583     .10551     .15134         .04088  -0.43196

Average wins by position in NL Central:  107.1 93.4 83.8 68.7 56.7
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              33   14   .630  106.5   55.5   89.07187    9.96313   99.03500         .39497    .93974
Pirates           28   20   .504   85.2   76.8    2.03932   31.93954   33.97885       -3.70130   9.97708
Cardinals         26   24   .579   92.0   70.0    8.88097   62.62148   71.50244        7.76706  -2.45412
Brewers           22   27   .420   68.0   94.0     .00785     .45336     .46121       -0.22750    .03130
Reds              16   33   .382   57.9  104.1     .00000     .00533     .00533         .00176  -0.04657

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.3 86.1 81.1 75.7 66.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            31   20   .510   86.6   75.4   37.06742   10.60148   47.66890        3.98541  10.55521
Dodgers           26   24   .545   86.5   75.5   37.74351   10.01715   47.76065        9.73055  13.93185
Rockies           23   25   .510   81.6   80.4   15.91614    6.97315   22.88929       -5.60704  -8.03938
Diamondbacks      22   29   .511   78.8   83.2    8.74632    4.15021   12.89652         .23777 -15.92688
Padres            20   30   .443   68.5   93.5     .52662     .28655     .81317       -0.37863  -0.81628

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.9 89.9

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.