Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Jul 17 08:01:34 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.5 87.8 83.5 76.4 70.1 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 52 41 .527 87.6 74.4 29.97599 44.78219 74.75818 .57159 -0.40839 Rays 49 44 .548 86.1 75.9 20.17558 43.44836 63.62393 -4.70928 1.86279 Yankees 47 43 .582 89.6 72.4 49.31748 35.84903 85.16651 2.02943 .91252 Blue Jays 42 49 .480 75.5 86.5 .48369 3.58948 4.07317 -0.84008 -3.20454 Orioles 42 49 .428 71.6 90.4 .04727 .73190 .77917 -0.37456 -1.93746
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.0 81.0 77.2 73.7 69.4 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 47 43 .542 87.3 74.7 81.04457 2.94754 83.99211 -2.50001 -6.48534 Twins 46 45 .457 78.0 84.0 8.02310 5.06885 13.09195 -1.24867 .02703 Royals 45 45 .441 77.0 85.0 6.79493 3.47419 10.26912 2.89110 1.49284 Tigers 41 49 .462 74.5 87.5 2.73511 1.48041 4.21552 1.03094 1.52520 White Sox 38 52 .475 72.6 89.4 1.40230 .59926 2.00156 -0.40834 -2.32884
Average wins by position in AL west: 105.4 84.8 80.7 77.3 73.1 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 62 30 .615 105.3 56.7 99.86367 .08728 99.95095 .01139 .00249 Mariners 46 47 .460 76.5 85.5 .00845 5.38152 5.38997 1.40055 2.37628 Angels 46 49 .479 77.6 84.4 .01493 7.45392 7.46885 1.56356 -1.60285 Rangers 45 46 .511 81.2 80.8 .07080 24.62263 24.69343 -3.58594 -0.31274 Athletics 42 50 .531 80.6 81.4 .04215 20.48345 20.52560 4.16833 8.08102 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 88.6 85.7
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.9 82.8 77.3 70.0 57.6 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 55 36 .576 95.9 65.1 97.50815 .92170 98.42985 .87749 2.93815 Braves 45 45 .485 79.8 82.2 1.00135 6.24489 7.24624 1.20398 4.02921 Mets 41 48 .420 70.5 90.5 .01405 .10140 .11545 -0.07290 .06825 Marlins 41 49 .523 79.8 82.2 1.47645 5.83564 7.31209 -2.28513 -4.28188 Phillies 30 60 .382 57.8 104.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00010 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.8 84.6 80.7 76.5 71.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 52 42 .540 88.2 73.8 64.42843 5.74062 70.16905 -3.53540 5.01122 Cubs 46 45 .505 82.0 80.0 14.84413 5.57748 20.42160 5.28536 9.94318 Cardinals 44 47 .538 82.9 79.1 18.04603 6.93896 24.98499 -3.04787 -7.60651 Pirates 44 48 .445 74.3 87.7 1.00996 .35326 1.36323 .15192 .35481 Reds 39 52 .517 75.6 86.4 1.67145 .68116 2.35262 -0.55672 -1.67603
Average wins by position in NL West: 109.2 94.3 88.1 72.4 57.3 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 64 29 .634 109.2 52.8 98.59820 1.34963 99.94783 -0.00180 .00426 Diamondbacks 53 39 .566 92.8 69.2 1.15125 89.63578 90.78703 -1.28825 -3.98920 Rockies 53 41 .532 89.6 72.4 .25055 76.35173 76.60228 3.20410 -4.90065 Padres 40 51 .455 72.3 89.7 .00000 .26776 .26776 .06533 .10520 Giants 35 58 .337 57.4 104.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 94.4 89.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
