Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Jul 31 07:26:05 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 90.3 86.4 82.7 79.1 71.7 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 60 46 .504 88.1 73.9 51.58768 18.07286 69.66055 6.36981 16.22762 Blue Jays 59 50 .522 86.7 75.3 34.68868 21.77796 56.46664 4.97255 25.48709 Yankees 55 52 .488 81.8 80.2 7.12629 8.34288 15.46918 -4.67594 -14.67360 Rays 53 55 .538 81.7 80.3 6.56718 8.15847 14.72564 -4.30223 -1.44976 Red Sox 48 60 .465 72.1 89.9 .03018 .06080 .09098 -0.05967 -1.61581
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.1 84.3 80.7 77.3 71.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 58 46 .536 89.4 72.6 78.85826 4.69872 83.55698 2.62909 -2.80009 Royals 54 52 .488 81.7 80.3 8.71722 7.11232 15.82954 .57037 -1.92619 Indians 53 54 .511 82.1 79.9 10.07117 8.19202 18.26318 1.92964 -4.54047 White Sox 52 56 .487 78.2 83.8 2.14898 1.87586 4.02485 -1.87706 1.80288 Twins 48 58 .456 72.9 89.1 .20438 .08349 .28787 -0.17303 -0.75047
Average wins by position in AL west: 100.5 94.6 83.3 69.5 63.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 66 41 .602 99.4 62.6 72.33952 27.49149 99.83101 -0.04289 .01916 Angels 63 43 .589 95.6 66.4 27.54922 71.05428 98.60349 -0.29661 .16153 Mariners 55 52 .529 83.3 78.7 .11127 23.07621 23.18748 -5.04476 -15.90196 Astros 44 64 .455 68.5 93.5 .00000 .00262 .00262 .00078 -0.03978 Rangers 43 65 .416 64.3 97.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00005 -0.00017 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.5 87.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 91.2 84.7 80.2 76.4 69.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 58 47 .552 90.5 71.5 81.31598 9.54156 90.85754 2.45351 3.71081 Braves 58 50 .491 84.1 77.9 14.86400 26.38017 41.24417 -3.60043 -5.79294 Marlins 53 54 .472 78.9 83.1 1.92058 5.74361 7.66420 -1.24847 5.96363 Mets 52 56 .486 78.4 83.6 1.88609 4.06643 5.95252 1.29154 1.00969 Phillies 47 61 .442 70.2 91.8 .01334 .03427 .04761 -0.01990 .01836
Average wins by position in NL Central: 90.2 86.9 83.7 79.6 69.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 60 49 .513 86.7 75.3 34.15551 30.86923 65.02474 7.84040 1.43582 Pirates 57 50 .525 86.1 75.9 28.06555 31.77810 59.84365 -3.41535 6.65647 Cardinals 56 50 .532 86.5 75.5 32.90500 30.47199 63.37699 -7.90453 -3.29397 Reds 53 54 .510 81.0 81.0 4.86565 12.39492 17.26057 -2.39339 -5.42334 Cubs 44 62 .477 69.9 92.1 .00829 .03992 .04821 -0.02441 -0.07067
Average wins by position in NL West: 92.1 84.9 75.6 71.6 67.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 61 47 .553 91.6 70.4 84.58126 10.35446 94.93572 1.19061 19.68314 Giants 58 50 .502 85.3 76.7 15.31826 37.87530 53.19356 5.58855 -24.12019 Padres 48 59 .452 73.3 88.7 .07897 .33954 .41851 .20222 .24547 Diamondbacks 47 61 .445 71.5 90.5 .01456 .08114 .09570 .02911 -0.01803 Rockies 44 63 .465 70.1 91.9 .00696 .02935 .03631 .01052 -0.00426 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 87.9 85.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
