Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Thu Apr 24 07:44:22 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 93.1 85.3 79.7 74.1 66.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 12 9 .487 81.4 80.6 22.25574 12.36101 34.61675 -3.22429 -5.97245 Blue Jays 11 10 .471 77.9 84.1 13.72530 9.05595 22.78125 -1.85639 -6.00114 Orioles 10 10 .461 75.7 86.3 9.98820 7.13498 17.12318 .89456 -4.37985 Rays 10 11 .533 86.2 75.8 41.19825 13.07214 54.27039 -3.94718 20.06852 Red Sox 10 12 .480 77.4 84.6 12.83251 8.47379 21.30630 4.71021 -4.56955
Average wins by position in AL Central: 94.3 87.2 81.8 76.5 69.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 11 11 .507 82.9 79.1 22.51712 16.19438 38.71150 6.11765 -1.16183 Tigers 10 8 .502 82.4 79.6 22.10895 15.05282 37.16176 -6.92793 2.96212 Royals 10 10 .498 81.2 80.8 18.09782 14.45912 32.55694 -2.97172 3.39493 Twins 10 10 .507 82.7 79.3 22.18209 15.72336 37.90545 3.93623 8.69042 Indians 10 11 .493 79.9 82.1 15.09403 13.01751 28.11154 1.59117 -5.97964
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.3 87.6 81.0 74.4 65.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 14 8 .509 85.3 76.7 25.85129 22.32231 48.17360 10.65926 28.51358 Athletics 13 8 .545 90.7 71.3 48.90387 20.56190 69.46577 -3.90931 -0.05807 Angels 10 11 .507 81.9 80.1 16.49183 18.26879 34.76063 -2.93934 .68528 Mariners 8 13 .482 76.3 85.7 6.57968 10.44875 17.02842 -0.98263 -33.35922 Astros 7 15 .452 70.2 91.8 2.17333 3.85319 6.02652 -1.15030 -2.83307 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.1 87.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.3 88.8 82.5 76.3 67.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 14 7 .556 92.5 69.5 52.36077 19.05577 71.41653 3.76102 1.81681 Nationals 12 10 .521 84.9 77.1 20.41557 21.20266 41.61823 2.56974 -10.52155 Mets 11 10 .460 74.4 87.6 4.04025 6.63779 10.67804 .78145 -7.13741 Phillies 10 11 .489 78.3 83.7 8.09425 11.15721 19.25146 -5.69607 2.86513 Marlins 10 12 .523 82.6 79.4 15.08917 17.60514 32.69431 -3.50934 9.31237
Average wins by position in NL Central: 98.2 89.5 83.0 76.3 66.8 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 16 6 .554 93.2 68.8 51.75988 21.78976 73.54964 4.36306 7.18298 Cardinals 12 10 .530 86.1 75.9 21.46811 24.43107 45.89918 -0.97579 1.90348 Reds 10 11 .532 84.4 77.6 17.59049 21.77656 39.36705 2.20643 5.33808 Pirates 9 13 .507 79.2 82.8 7.24454 13.66077 20.90531 -0.70772 -0.03065 Cubs 7 13 .464 70.9 91.1 1.93698 3.99644 5.93342 -2.84945 -3.52992
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.3 85.3 79.0 72.3 61.2 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 13 9 .482 79.9 82.1 17.99488 8.45711 26.45198 6.63967 -15.40174 Giants 12 10 .479 78.7 83.3 14.39270 7.92719 22.31989 6.17930 -11.57728 Rockies 12 11 .532 86.5 75.5 41.61232 11.20753 52.81985 -7.95296 16.90629 Padres 10 12 .513 82.5 79.5 25.20916 10.63333 35.84248 -5.21939 5.42041 Diamondbacks 6 18 .423 63.4 98.6 .79095 .46169 1.25264 .41005 -2.54702 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.7 88.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
