Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Oct 5 07:59:35 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.0 87.0 81.0 80.0 78.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays         93   69   .622   93.0   69.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Yankees           87   75   .545   87.0   75.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .01690
Orioles           81   81   .497   81.0   81.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00129
Rays              80   82   .546   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Red Sox           78   84   .503   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.0 83.0 81.0 76.0 74.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            95   67   .528   95.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Twins             83   79   .455   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -5.81746
Indians           81   80   .566   81.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.94490
White Sox         76   86   .449   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Tigers            74   87   .476   74.0   87.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  88.0 86.0 85.0 76.0 68.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           88   74   .500   88.0   74.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000   3.10545
Astros            86   76   .586   86.0   76.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000       10.14895  34.11098
Angels            85   77   .490   85.0   77.0     .00000     .00000     .00000      -10.14895 -30.46968
Mariners          76   86   .488   76.0   86.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         68   94   .501   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  87.0 86.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.0 83.0 71.0 67.0 63.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              90   72   .526   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Nationals         83   79   .535   83.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Marlins           71   91   .453   71.0   91.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            67   95   .386   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Phillies          63   99   .370   63.0   99.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  100.0 98.0 97.0 68.0 64.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals        100   62   .536  100.0   62.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Pirates           98   64   .540   98.0   64.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Cubs              97   65   .563   97.0   65.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Brewers           68   94   .436   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              64   98   .455   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.0 84.0 79.0 74.0 68.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           92   70   .571   92.0   70.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .42635
Giants            84   78   .535   84.0   78.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.42635
Diamondbacks      79   83   .496   79.0   83.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Padres            74   88   .437   74.0   88.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rockies           68   94   .411   68.0   94.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  98.0 97.0

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.