Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Jun 18 08:01:40 EDT 2018


Average wins by position in AL East:  107.7 99.7 82.7 72.7 52.8
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           49   24   .592  101.7   60.3   33.04808   65.03873   98.08681         .88683   1.81551
Yankees           46   21   .621  105.7   56.3   66.88803   32.47992   99.36796       -0.09448    .92186
Blue Jays         33   38   .459   73.6   88.4     .00103     .38420     .38524         .15460  -0.03660
Rays              33   38   .534   81.8   80.2     .06285    5.78997    5.85282        1.49457  -0.86609
Orioles           20   50   .377   52.9  109.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  89.8 80.2 73.7 64.3 55.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           37   33   .537   89.1   72.9   84.62494     .32867   84.95361         .69770  -2.03149
Tigers            36   37   .452   76.3   85.7    5.88549     .33750    6.22299         .44623   2.89476
Twins             31   37   .476   77.8   84.2    9.39753     .59119    9.98871       -0.97810  -0.69353
White Sox         24   46   .425   63.5   98.5     .08634     .00112     .08746       -0.03596  -0.24324
Royals            22   49   .379   57.0  105.0     .00570     .00000     .00570       -0.00081  -0.03001

Average wins by position in AL west:  106.3 93.9 85.4 78.7 67.3
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            48   25   .644  105.9   56.1   91.74177    7.64852   99.39028         .17990   2.76807
Mariners          46   26   .537   93.2   68.8    7.62803   68.87033   76.49836       -3.05011  18.67772
Angels            38   34   .524   84.3   77.7     .53733   13.89719   14.43453       -0.61059 -17.80024
Athletics         36   36   .503   80.3   81.7     .09287    4.59711    4.68998         .90025  -5.32919
Rangers           29   44   .441   67.8   94.2     .00000     .03555     .03555         .00997  -0.04754

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  100.5 93.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.8 89.0 83.1 72.7 63.3
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Braves            42   29   .543   91.8   70.2   52.96912   24.55706   77.52618        3.00694   8.13197
Nationals         37   31   .541   88.7   73.3   30.32153   28.30701   58.62854       -5.58984 -12.79416
Phillies          37   32   .515   85.9   76.1   16.44675   23.16995   39.61670        3.36096   7.52676
Mets              30   38   .452   72.1   89.9     .25473     .69490     .94963         .37789  -0.71968
Marlins           28   44   .415   64.5   97.5     .00787     .01375     .02162       -0.01506    .00890

Average wins by position in NL Central:  97.8 90.6 83.7 77.6 65.2
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           42   29   .537   91.0   71.0   27.00896   45.28008   72.28904         .12308   4.79222
Cubs              40   28   .585   96.0   66.0   68.01776   23.39016   91.40791       -1.34641   2.38993
Cardinals         37   32   .491   81.5   80.5    2.75599   13.74413   16.50012        5.00754  -5.72490
Pirates           35   36   .508   80.8   81.2    2.21298   11.41239   13.62537       -2.58842  -0.84329
Reds              26   45   .443   65.5   96.5     .00431     .03014     .03445         .01500    .00757

Average wins by position in NL West:  90.8 85.5 80.9 75.2 69.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Diamondbacks      39   32   .521   86.4   75.6   40.22333   10.19792   50.42125       -3.64281  -1.42101
Dodgers           37   33   .542   86.3   75.7   38.76662   10.45710   49.22372       -4.13424  14.89914
Giants            35   37   .516   82.6   79.4   17.97169    7.63852   25.61021        5.43207 -15.28584
Rockies           34   37   .452   74.3   87.7    2.14968     .83258    2.98226       -0.07185  -1.31237
Padres            34   40   .442   71.9   90.1     .88868     .27431    1.16299         .06513    .34474

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.4 88.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.