Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sun Sep 26 07:52:13 EDT 2021
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.4 92.5 91.2 89.9 52.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 96 59 .575 99.4 62.6 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00517 Red Sox 88 67 .528 91.8 70.2 .00000 83.30460 83.30460 -7.19978 6.91716 Yankees 88 67 .554 91.3 70.7 .00000 66.59153 66.59153 7.80084 28.87528 Blue Jays 86 69 .597 90.5 71.5 .00000 46.20868 46.20868 5.68866 -29.09233 Orioles 50 105 .392 52.6 109.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 91.3 80.3 78.1 74.4 72.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 87 68 .567 91.3 70.7 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .01305 Indians 76 78 .477 80.1 81.9 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.01300 Tigers 75 79 .441 78.3 83.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00005 Royals 70 84 .448 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 69 86 .460 72.5 89.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.1 88.8 86.8 77.6 59.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 91 64 .602 95.1 66.9 99.95820 .01923 99.97743 -0.00555 .81834 Mariners 85 70 .436 88.3 73.7 .01600 3.30615 3.32215 -6.39936 2.97948 Athletics 84 71 .530 87.3 74.7 .02580 .56983 .59563 .11521 -10.50307 Angels 74 81 .466 77.6 84.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 56 99 .397 59.3 102.7 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.5 91.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 86.9 84.3 76.9 68.2 66.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 82 72 .555 86.6 75.4 81.79470 .01434 81.80904 2.59058 15.75874 Phillies 81 74 .514 84.5 77.5 18.20530 .02323 18.22853 -2.64017 -24.05149 Mets 73 81 .501 76.9 85.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.18839 Marlins 64 90 .463 67.5 94.5 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 64 91 .494 67.4 94.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.2 90.0 83.7 70.0 60.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 93 62 .553 96.2 65.8 99.87975 .12025 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 86 69 .517 90.0 72.0 .12025 99.80922 99.92947 .08519 34.96162 Reds 80 75 .496 83.7 78.3 .00000 .03297 .03297 -0.03485 -22.72922 Cubs 67 88 .412 70.0 92.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 57 97 .373 60.4 101.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 105.9 103.5 80.6 75.0 52.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Giants 101 54 .628 105.8 56.2 88.92310 11.07690 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Dodgers 99 56 .644 103.6 58.4 11.07690 88.92310 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 78 77 .517 80.6 81.4 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00075 -3.75125 Rockies 71 83 .476 75.0 87.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 50 105 .387 52.4 109.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 103.5 90.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
