Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Apr 27 08:00:40 EDT 2017


Average wins by position in AL East:  98.6 89.7 83.1 76.3 65.9
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           14    6   .494   83.4   78.6   14.55657   22.50459   37.06116        1.57376   4.06996
Yankees           12    7   .567   93.8   68.2   53.16408   23.07691   76.24099        6.28514   4.24500
Red Sox           11    9   .500   81.3   80.7   10.85565   18.79520   29.65085       -4.30126   1.28555
Rays              11   12   .539   86.1   75.9   20.19056   27.73838   47.92894       -3.56405   2.16350
Blue Jays          6   14   .452   69.1   92.9    1.23314    3.34731    4.58045         .18934  -0.85572

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.5 86.5 80.4 74.1 64.7
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           11    9   .533   88.0   74.0   43.26890   15.11539   58.38429        7.18567  33.09167
Tigers            11    9   .485   80.8   81.2   17.51715   12.21933   29.73648      -12.57832   1.71251
White Sox         11    9   .500   82.7   79.3   22.22775   14.40414   36.63189        2.65465   5.51712
Twins             10   11   .491   79.6   82.4   14.37303   11.26362   25.63666       -8.54245 -16.52899
Royals             7   14   .441   69.0   93.0    2.61317    2.33880    4.95196       -0.02347 -35.20862

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.9 85.9 80.1 74.5 66.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            14    7   .522   88.1   73.9   46.59915   12.80104   59.40019       -1.39136   4.50067
Angels            11   12   .465   74.9   87.1    7.24412    5.91714   13.16125        1.47345  -7.58633
Athletics         10   11   .500   80.3   81.7   17.32949   10.93152   28.26101       -0.86428  -7.33949
Rangers           10   12   .484   77.7   84.3   12.02871    8.16523   20.19394        5.97119   7.61414
Mariners           9   13   .505   80.3   81.7   16.79853   11.38140   28.17994        5.93199   3.31903

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  92.4 88.3

Average wins by position in NL East:  96.8 87.6 81.2 75.1 67.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         15    6   .547   92.7   69.3   56.34580   18.56250   74.90830        6.71518  24.43338
Marlins           10    9   .500   80.6   80.4   13.74880   17.17410   30.92290       -3.53085 -11.49399
Phillies          10    9   .513   82.6   78.4   17.77780   20.48210   38.25990        3.99475   7.67014
Mets               8   12   .487   76.2   85.8    6.14100   10.00692   16.14792       -6.03158 -13.93910
Braves             7   12   .483   75.6   86.4    5.98660    9.43028   15.41688        4.48628  -5.86429

Average wins by position in NL Central:  93.6 86.1 80.6 75.1 67.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              12    9   .524   85.9   76.1   36.55302   14.44447   50.99748       -1.77507   8.36864
Brewers           12   11   .509   82.5   79.5   23.19452   13.74089   36.93541        2.40279  -6.60876
Reds              10   12   .503   79.8   82.2   16.17655   11.07753   27.25408       -1.71611 -15.26769
Cardinals          9   11   .493   79.1   82.9   15.25242   10.28280   25.53521        1.67536   8.13330
Pirates            9   12   .476   75.6   86.4    8.82350    7.04025   15.86375        1.63331   1.83905

Average wins by position in NL West:  95.0 87.2 81.0 74.4 65.8
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rockies           14    8   .514   86.2   75.8   32.38477   18.64026   51.02503       -3.38411  12.49296
Diamondbacks      14    9   .514   85.5   76.5   29.45987   18.86124   48.32111       -3.50649   7.46146
Dodgers           10   12   .534   85.7   76.3   29.78567   19.38278   49.16844       -4.75709 -10.17516
Padres             9   14   .458   72.4   89.6    3.77942    4.82488    8.60429        2.63226  -3.95812
Giants             8   14   .470   73.6   88.4    4.59028    6.04901   10.63929        1.16136  -3.09183

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  91.7 87.8

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.