Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Wed Jul 23 07:36:12 EDT 2014
Average wins by position in AL East: 88.5 84.5 81.4 78.6 74.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Orioles 55 44 .502 86.1 75.9 49.88463 7.97212 57.85675 4.72721 9.04831 Blue Jays 52 49 .501 82.4 79.6 18.83664 7.43637 26.27301 1.28974 -11.77356 Yankees 51 48 .494 82.6 79.4 20.84950 7.33774 28.18724 .41905 5.74696 Rays 48 53 .529 80.2 81.8 8.80506 4.05896 12.86402 1.19081 6.73430 Red Sox 47 53 .483 75.8 86.2 1.62418 .84613 2.47031 -1.41817 1.03085
Average wins by position in AL Central: 90.7 84.6 80.6 76.9 71.9 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 55 42 .539 89.9 72.1 77.65130 6.51245 84.16375 -2.98200 -5.74978 Indians 51 49 .506 83.0 79.0 13.60344 13.57001 27.17345 3.81919 7.04515 Royals 49 50 .498 80.9 81.1 6.71646 7.39189 14.10834 3.58854 -9.37086 White Sox 48 53 .481 77.1 84.9 1.58836 1.75262 3.34097 -1.37505 .13287 Twins 45 54 .462 73.7 88.3 .44045 .33603 .77648 -0.27146 -1.23104
Average wins by position in AL west: 100.6 94.4 85.1 71.3 63.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 61 38 .601 99.4 62.6 72.06553 27.66982 99.73535 -0.07184 .04252 Angels 59 40 .583 95.3 66.7 27.30378 70.53729 97.84107 -0.60800 -0.50038 Mariners 53 47 .530 85.3 76.7 .63068 44.51178 45.14247 -8.33182 -1.14271 Astros 42 58 .466 70.7 91.3 .00000 .06660 .06660 .02445 -0.01157 Rangers 40 60 .412 64.2 97.8 .00000 .00020 .00020 -0.00065 -0.00105 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 94.3 87.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 92.0 84.8 79.0 74.6 68.7 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 55 43 .551 91.2 70.8 80.95297 9.30904 90.26201 1.54493 9.54984 Braves 54 46 .494 84.8 77.2 17.00383 25.35784 42.36168 -6.20524 -11.75792 Marlins 47 52 .465 76.1 85.9 .72763 1.57642 2.30406 .55250 .33595 Mets 47 53 .485 77.3 84.7 1.29601 2.40841 3.70441 .92256 -2.70400 Phillies 43 57 .435 69.6 92.4 .01956 .03032 .04988 -0.03543 -0.20238
Average wins by position in NL Central: 91.4 87.6 84.5 80.6 71.3 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 56 45 .513 86.7 75.3 27.15990 30.32933 57.48922 5.45750 6.70191 Cardinals 54 46 .547 88.5 73.5 44.74825 28.38647 73.13472 -3.85726 1.46728 Pirates 53 47 .527 85.5 76.5 18.81173 29.03410 47.84582 6.66110 11.53523 Reds 51 49 .519 83.2 78.8 9.24038 18.70920 27.94958 -5.69965 -25.70055 Cubs 41 57 .483 71.6 90.4 .03975 .18206 .22181 .05795 -0.30162
Average wins by position in NL West: 91.6 86.1 74.7 70.5 66.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Giants 56 44 .515 88.4 73.6 45.14425 29.08672 74.23097 4.53954 12.87779 Dodgers 56 46 .542 89.2 72.8 54.77245 25.37248 80.14493 -3.88293 -1.61852 Diamondbacks 44 57 .449 71.9 90.1 .04312 .12295 .16606 .04264 .07960 Padres 43 56 .434 70.5 91.5 .03153 .07860 .11014 -0.08622 -0.04125 Rockies 40 60 .458 68.9 93.1 .00865 .01607 .02472 -0.01198 -0.22139 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 89.0 86.3
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
