Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue Oct 1 07:35:57 EDT 2013
Average wins by position in AL East: 96.2 93.1 85.0 85.0 72.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 97 65 .598 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rays 92 71 .560 92.0 71.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 52.50580 13.40488 Orioles 85 77 .505 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00542 Yankees 85 77 .460 85.0 77.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.27207 Blue Jays 74 88 .485 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.3 93.1 87.2 65.0 63.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 93 69 .602 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00058 Indians 92 70 .532 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 29.10367 Royals 86 76 .508 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -1.42442 Twins 66 96 .420 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 White Sox 63 99 .435 63.0 99.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 96.0 90.7 79.1 71.8 51.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Athletics 96 66 .570 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 91 72 .542 91.0 72.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -52.50580 -40.80723 Angels 78 84 .498 78.0 84.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mariners 71 91 .447 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Astros 51 111 .362 51.0 111.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.4 91.2
Average wins by position in NL East: 96.0 87.2 72.9 72.2 62.9 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 96 66 .552 96.0 66.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 86 76 .516 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Mets 74 88 .450 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Phillies 73 89 .418 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 62 100 .402 62.0 100.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 96.2 95.3 88.7 72.9 65.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cardinals 97 65 .569 97.0 65.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 94 68 .565 94.0 68.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Reds 90 72 .563 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Brewers 74 88 .503 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Cubs 66 96 .471 66.0 96.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 93.1 80.2 76.5 76.5 72.9 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 92 70 .563 92.0 70.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 81 81 .483 81.0 81.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Giants 76 86 .493 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 76 86 .455 76.0 86.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 74 88 .470 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 93.7 90.6
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
