Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Jul 23 07:36:12 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  88.5 84.5 81.4 78.6 74.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           55   44   .502   86.1   75.9   49.88463    7.97212   57.85675        4.72721   9.04831
Blue Jays         52   49   .501   82.4   79.6   18.83664    7.43637   26.27301        1.28974 -11.77356
Yankees           51   48   .494   82.6   79.4   20.84950    7.33774   28.18724         .41905   5.74696
Rays              48   53   .529   80.2   81.8    8.80506    4.05896   12.86402        1.19081   6.73430
Red Sox           47   53   .483   75.8   86.2    1.62418     .84613    2.47031       -1.41817   1.03085

Average wins by position in AL Central:  90.7 84.6 80.6 76.9 71.9
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Tigers            55   42   .539   89.9   72.1   77.65130    6.51245   84.16375       -2.98200  -5.74978
Indians           51   49   .506   83.0   79.0   13.60344   13.57001   27.17345        3.81919   7.04515
Royals            49   50   .498   80.9   81.1    6.71646    7.39189   14.10834        3.58854  -9.37086
White Sox         48   53   .481   77.1   84.9    1.58836    1.75262    3.34097       -1.37505    .13287
Twins             45   54   .462   73.7   88.3     .44045     .33603     .77648       -0.27146  -1.23104

Average wins by position in AL west:  100.6 94.4 85.1 71.3 63.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Athletics         61   38   .601   99.4   62.6   72.06553   27.66982   99.73535       -0.07184    .04252
Angels            59   40   .583   95.3   66.7   27.30378   70.53729   97.84107       -0.60800  -0.50038
Mariners          53   47   .530   85.3   76.7     .63068   44.51178   45.14247       -8.33182  -1.14271
Astros            42   58   .466   70.7   91.3     .00000     .06660     .06660         .02445  -0.01157
Rangers           40   60   .412   64.2   97.8     .00000     .00020     .00020       -0.00065  -0.00105

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  94.3 87.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  92.0 84.8 79.0 74.6 68.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         55   43   .551   91.2   70.8   80.95297    9.30904   90.26201        1.54493   9.54984
Braves            54   46   .494   84.8   77.2   17.00383   25.35784   42.36168       -6.20524 -11.75792
Marlins           47   52   .465   76.1   85.9     .72763    1.57642    2.30406         .55250    .33595
Mets              47   53   .485   77.3   84.7    1.29601    2.40841    3.70441         .92256  -2.70400
Phillies          43   57   .435   69.6   92.4     .01956     .03032     .04988       -0.03543  -0.20238

Average wins by position in NL Central:  91.4 87.6 84.5 80.6 71.3
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           56   45   .513   86.7   75.3   27.15990   30.32933   57.48922        5.45750   6.70191
Cardinals         54   46   .547   88.5   73.5   44.74825   28.38647   73.13472       -3.85726   1.46728
Pirates           53   47   .527   85.5   76.5   18.81173   29.03410   47.84582        6.66110  11.53523
Reds              51   49   .519   83.2   78.8    9.24038   18.70920   27.94958       -5.69965 -25.70055
Cubs              41   57   .483   71.6   90.4     .03975     .18206     .22181         .05795  -0.30162

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.6 86.1 74.7 70.5 66.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Giants            56   44   .515   88.4   73.6   45.14425   29.08672   74.23097        4.53954  12.87779
Dodgers           56   46   .542   89.2   72.8   54.77245   25.37248   80.14493       -3.88293  -1.61852
Diamondbacks      44   57   .449   71.9   90.1     .04312     .12295     .16606         .04264    .07960
Padres            43   56   .434   70.5   91.5     .03153     .07860     .11014       -0.08622  -0.04125
Rockies           40   60   .458   68.9   93.1     .00865     .01607     .02472       -0.01198  -0.22139

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  89.0 86.3

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.