Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Tue Jul 5 07:51:39 EDT 2022
Average wins by position in AL East: 108.8 92.3 87.1 81.8 73.6 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 58 22 .629 108.8 53.2 98.45320 1.54450 99.99770 -0.00050 .01450 Red Sox 45 35 .557 89.2 72.8 1.08690 80.10850 81.19540 7.07600 1.29079 Blue Jays 44 37 .545 87.7 74.3 .37480 73.27600 73.65080 -5.05510 -10.83250 Rays 43 37 .516 83.7 78.3 .08480 44.77130 44.85610 -4.51530 6.21720 Orioles 37 44 .472 74.3 87.7 .00030 3.99030 3.99060 1.00810 1.76570
Average wins by position in AL Central: 88.8 83.1 77.8 68.8 61.1 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 46 37 .511 86.7 75.3 60.12990 12.04940 72.17930 7.48240 14.99210 Guardians 40 38 .472 81.3 80.7 19.33200 13.67840 33.01040 -9.90910 -7.74340 White Sox 38 40 .477 81.2 80.8 20.31130 11.75730 32.06860 -3.09060 -11.45040 Tigers 32 47 .420 67.9 94.1 .21240 .20680 .41920 .22230 .19830 Royals 29 49 .402 62.5 99.5 .01440 .01150 .02590 .00350 .00290
Average wins by position in AL west: 105.0 84.7 79.1 73.8 55.7 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 52 27 .617 105.0 57.0 99.71360 .26820 99.98180 .00169 .51109 Mariners 40 42 .521 82.3 79.7 .21010 34.88090 35.09100 7.74690 20.21980 Rangers 37 41 .490 78.3 83.7 .05070 14.22870 14.27940 -1.62150 -4.70790 Angels 37 44 .496 77.0 85.0 .02560 9.22810 9.25370 .65110 -10.47820 Athletics 27 55 .379 55.7 106.3 .00000 .00010 .00010 .00010 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.6 88.3 88.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 98.3 92.7 87.5 79.5 59.8 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 50 30 .558 95.8 66.2 55.77230 38.82820 94.60050 1.39450 1.32430 Braves 47 34 .576 92.9 69.1 32.48680 54.20740 86.69420 1.69470 6.65600 Phillies 42 38 .565 88.9 73.1 10.99100 54.83360 65.82460 1.39380 9.96540 Marlins 38 40 .509 80.3 81.7 .74990 11.25450 12.00440 1.78380 4.75540 Nationals 29 53 .415 59.9 102.1 .00000 .00030 .00030 -0.00070 -0.00910
Average wins by position in NL Central: 92.7 85.8 72.0 64.9 58.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 47 35 .530 91.0 71.0 67.32430 14.81900 82.14330 1.97820 11.83960 Cardinals 44 38 .523 87.4 74.6 32.49350 24.39270 56.88620 -1.56410 -2.68730 Pirates 32 47 .392 64.0 98.0 .00560 .00610 .01170 .00040 -0.02260 Cubs 32 48 .470 71.0 91.0 .17550 .26050 .43600 -0.10000 .18410 Reds 27 52 .396 60.3 101.7 .00110 .00060 .00170 .00010 -0.02100
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 91.6 82.4 74.0 67.5 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 50 29 .607 100.8 61.2 85.78330 13.29120 99.07450 .14440 1.58020 Padres 47 35 .548 91.6 70.4 13.26900 68.94870 82.21770 -3.29940 -6.66251 Giants 40 38 .510 82.2 79.8 .93960 18.25980 19.19940 -3.64630 -27.48770 Diamondbacks 36 44 .455 72.6 89.4 .00630 .73630 .74260 .22790 .69840 Rockies 35 45 .440 69.6 92.4 .00180 .16110 .16290 -0.00730 -0.11320 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 94.5 91.1 88.1
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
