Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Thu Apr 18 08:00:46 EDT 2019


Average wins by position in AL East:  104.1 84.7 75.7 68.2 59.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rays              14    4   .601  103.5   58.5   90.62535    5.23364   95.85899        1.71421  15.84518
Yankees            8    9   .494   80.3   81.7    6.37028   21.27070   27.64099       -5.19945  -1.45108
Blue Jays          7   12   .463   73.8   88.2    1.91450    8.74817   10.66267       -0.78477  -1.64710
Orioles            7   12   .413   66.1   95.9     .40471    2.10508    2.50979       -1.22250  -7.71767
Red Sox            6   13   .433   68.2   93.8     .68516    3.20801    3.89317       -0.32576 -15.07518

Average wins by position in AL Central:  94.4 86.4 80.5 74.7 66.8
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           11    7   .481   80.8   81.2   18.27409   12.40725   30.68134        2.69495  -0.97019
Twins              9    6   .524   86.5   75.5   38.17564   14.24008   52.41572        4.16794   4.39512
Tigers             8    9   .489   79.0   83.0   14.83688   10.58193   25.41881       -1.97542 -14.84060
White Sox          7   10   .508   81.4   80.6   20.61686   12.66816   33.28502       -0.36923  13.59731
Royals             6   12   .481   75.3   86.7    8.09653    7.11690   15.21344       -0.11753    .25280

Average wins by position in AL west:  103.6 90.7 82.5 75.5 66.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mariners          13    8   .534   87.7   74.3   15.21858   40.37271   55.59129       -0.36257  -2.96343
Astros            12    6   .614  101.6   60.4   75.65388   17.12462   92.77851       -0.04144  17.57200
Athletics         11   10   .485   77.4   83.6    3.04315   16.32400   19.36715        3.18480   2.35796
Rangers           10    7   .487   78.7   82.3    4.45285   19.65750   24.11035       -1.34230   7.15174
Angels             8   10   .466   73.5   88.5    1.63153    8.94125   10.57278       -0.02091 -16.50685

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.3 88.2

Average wins by position in NL East:  95.4 87.3 80.9 73.7 60.7
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Phillies          11    6   .518   86.7   75.3   34.11866   16.91136   51.03002        1.24514   3.25455
Mets              10    8   .494   81.7   80.3   18.15008   13.99038   32.14046       -0.16673  -6.10969
Braves             9    8   .511   83.5   78.5   23.53215   15.17293   38.70508       -2.85640   1.48380
Nationals          8    8   .511   83.5   78.5   23.55130   15.45164   39.00294        1.92003  -3.02127
Marlins            4   15   .421   62.7   99.3     .64781     .66834    1.31615       -0.60638  -5.44912

Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.1 88.3 82.4 76.5 67.9
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           12    7   .511   84.1   77.9   22.19830   17.67366   39.87196       -5.28091   5.66245
Pirates           10    6   .527   86.4   75.6   30.63990   18.26866   48.90856        2.27350   5.47983
Cardinals         10    8   .521   84.7   77.3   24.23083   17.97576   42.20659        3.68965  -5.30232
Cubs               8    9   .517   82.1   79.9   17.70924   15.22331   32.93255         .22824  11.17790
Reds               5   12   .485   74.1   87.9    5.22173    6.59840   11.82014       -1.40440 -12.85853

Average wins by position in NL West:  96.7 87.4 80.9 74.6 66.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           12    8   .563   92.5   69.5   57.35283   15.57428   72.92711        1.31215  17.78608
Padres            11    8   .478   78.8   83.2   10.29382   11.73931   22.03313       -0.18273  -8.57104
Diamondbacks       9    9   .509   82.4   79.6   17.22460   16.79297   34.01756        2.20334    .05467
Giants             8   11   .498   79.3   82.7   11.16791   12.59400   23.76191       -2.25471  -0.97161
Rockies            6   12   .467   72.7   89.3    3.96085    5.36498    9.32582       -0.11979  -2.61572

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.4 88.5

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.