Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Aug 24 07:51:15 EDT 2019
Average wins by position in AL East: 100.1 94.7 87.0 58.8 51.8 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 84 46 .558 99.9 59.1 94.31740 5.38920 99.70660 .21867 .10236 Rays 76 54 .591 94.8 67.2 5.66030 70.29732 75.95762 .67166 -8.52088 Red Sox 69 61 .563 87.0 75.0 .02230 2.57617 2.59847 .51779 2.20807 Blue Jays 52 79 .402 58.8 89.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Orioles 41 88 .374 51.9 106.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 98.8 93.1 73.0 58.1 51.7 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Twins 77 51 .580 98.5 63.5 86.30950 9.88886 96.19836 -1.91692 -1.64343 Indians 75 54 .532 93.4 68.6 13.69050 42.27836 55.96886 .56967 -20.06358 White Sox 59 69 .411 73.0 87.0 .00000 .00010 .00010 .00010 .00010 Royals 45 84 .390 58.0 104.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 39 87 .352 51.9 109.1 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 103.0 91.7 77.1 74.1 70.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 83 47 .654 103.0 57.0 98.93030 1.00430 99.93460 .02063 .05297 Athletics 74 53 .558 91.7 66.3 1.06970 68.56550 69.63520 -0.07990 27.89740 Rangers 63 67 .456 75.9 84.1 .00000 .00020 .00020 -0.00080 -0.02945 Angels 63 68 .478 74.8 85.2 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00090 -0.00355 Mariners 55 74 .477 70.4 91.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 96.4 94.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 95.8 90.3 85.0 80.7 60.4 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 78 52 .524 95.4 66.6 85.40658 14.40372 99.81030 .18195 1.38153 Nationals 71 57 .556 90.3 71.7 14.12592 78.67717 92.80309 3.83537 7.90916 Mets 67 61 .513 84.4 77.6 .39712 31.52009 31.91720 -5.54843 12.71132 Phillies 66 61 .454 81.5 80.5 .07038 8.15527 8.22565 -4.15340 -12.72389 Marlins 46 81 .410 60.4 101.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 89.2 86.0 82.8 78.1 68.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cardinals 69 58 .518 87.0 75.0 42.97276 22.72583 65.69859 9.83491 8.57002 Cubs 69 59 .534 87.1 74.9 45.12314 22.07448 67.19762 -8.21442 6.40454 Brewers 66 62 .522 83.7 78.3 11.53254 13.77125 25.30380 6.48880 -6.25443 Reds 60 67 .527 78.5 83.5 .37156 1.09774 1.46930 -0.74713 -2.35376 Pirates 53 75 .444 68.4 93.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00427
Average wins by position in NL West: 106.3 82.0 78.2 75.0 71.7 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 85 45 .666 106.3 55.7 99.97827 .00224 99.98051 -0.00071 .02576 Diamondbacks 64 65 .535 81.3 80.7 .01587 6.91940 6.93527 -1.78074 -12.75421 Giants 63 65 .460 78.0 84.0 .00567 .60230 .60796 .10316 -2.51103 Padres 59 68 .484 74.7 87.3 .00020 .04674 .04694 .00166 -0.32971 Rockies 58 71 .473 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00377 .00377 -0.00103 -0.07104 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 90.4 86.8
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
