Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Jul 4 08:00:11 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  91.6 86.9 83.2 79.4 73.4
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Yankees           43   37   .554   88.4   73.6   47.98496   22.35423   70.33919        4.71543   1.61933
Orioles           42   38   .521   83.1   78.9   13.69796   19.45914   33.15710       -5.92332  -6.39897
Blue Jays         42   40   .557   85.7   76.3   26.67878   24.81514   51.49392       -5.82458 -16.23417
Rays              42   40   .520   82.3   79.7   10.75008   17.00843   27.75851       -2.44448 -22.02792
Red Sox           37   45   .483   74.9   87.1     .88823    2.17521    3.06343       -1.15919    .64079

Average wins by position in AL Central:  92.3 85.0 80.2 75.0 67.6
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            45   32   .542   91.2   70.8   76.21231    9.96745   86.17976        1.64040  -0.57750
Twins             42   38   .437   76.1   85.9    1.65872    3.63321    5.29192       -1.50533    .10440
Tigers            40   39   .515   82.1   79.9   11.48641   16.70598   28.19238        5.22415  -5.62972
Indians           38   41   .528   82.0   80.0   10.52609   16.35677   26.88286        4.99716  15.57434
White Sox         35   42   .413   68.7   93.3     .11648     .18161     .29808         .05885    .22113

Average wins by position in AL west:  93.1 86.2 82.2 78.6 73.8
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            48   34   .570   92.1   69.9   76.26152   12.44497   88.70649        3.02308  13.13220
Angels            42   38   .519   83.4   78.6   11.49957   23.22055   34.72012        5.51140  13.74216
Rangers           41   40   .507   81.0   81.0    6.52501   14.40853   20.93354       -5.60556   8.94815
Mariners          37   43   .501   77.4   84.6    1.70123    5.87418    7.57541        2.39504   1.39930
Athletics         37   46   .565   80.0   82.0    4.01267   11.39460   15.40726       -5.10305  -4.51355

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.0 86.5

Average wins by position in NL East:  89.3 82.1 77.6 72.7 57.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         44   36   .514   88.2   73.8   75.92088    3.22621   79.14709        1.36517  -2.81128
Mets              41   40   .464   79.9   82.1   13.42898    5.12528   18.55426        2.75036    .94265
Braves            39   41   .443   77.1   84.9    5.53414    2.70800    8.24214       -0.02103   1.86733
Marlins           35   46   .477   76.4   85.6    5.11571    1.84411    6.95982         .58180   3.08302
Phillies          27   55   .370   57.3  104.7     .00030     .00000     .00030       -0.00117  -0.00952

Average wins by position in NL Central:  99.2 91.6 86.0 76.8 67.6
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         51   28   .556   98.1   63.9   76.79067   21.21182   98.00249       -0.26741  -0.93375
Pirates           45   34   .528   88.8   73.2   11.10619   59.71445   70.82064       -2.44235  14.94496
Cubs              42   36   .540   89.3   72.7   11.92519   62.01548   73.94067       -3.27583   1.08173
Reds              36   42   .490   76.5   85.5     .17632    4.88767    5.06399       -2.30193  -6.23901
Brewers           34   48   .435   68.4   93.6     .00164     .13837     .14001         .07775    .08835

Average wins by position in NL West:  93.3 85.0 79.7 75.0 68.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           45   36   .573   92.6   69.4   83.36783    7.32248   90.69031       -1.05447  -1.06033
Giants            42   39   .514   83.7   78.3   12.21539   21.38929   33.60468       -0.01617 -11.24558
Diamondbacks      39   41   .485   79.0   83.0    3.11972    7.12593   10.24565        3.18146   1.97462
Padres            39   43   .447   76.4   85.6    1.22980    3.03652    4.26632        1.54804  -0.03614
Rockies           34   46   .431   69.7   92.3     .06727     .25438     .32165       -0.12422  -1.64703

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  92.0 87.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.