Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Sat Apr 19 07:51:46 AM EDT 2025
Average wins by position in AL East: 99.5 89.6 83.1 76.7 68.3 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Yankees 13 7 .581 96.2 65.8 63.40480 26.38870 89.79350 .58370 16.22830 Blue Jays 12 8 .507 83.9 78.1 13.73420 38.74320 52.47740 2.39620 2.62610 Red Sox 11 10 .518 84.3 77.7 14.29720 39.88910 54.18630 2.21850 9.91110 Orioles 8 11 .461 73.7 88.3 2.39330 14.55940 16.95270 -8.13910 -11.20410 Rays 8 12 .504 79.0 83.0 6.17050 27.03200 33.20250 2.78350 3.84850
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.0 80.8 73.9 67.3 58.6 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Tigers 12 8 .531 89.7 72.3 70.78590 8.90250 79.68840 -0.29210 .53640 Guardians 10 9 .446 74.9 87.1 11.74740 10.78670 22.53410 -0.61480 -16.74610 Royals 8 13 .440 71.0 91.0 5.98040 6.25560 12.23600 -0.50760 -6.43590 Twins 7 13 .460 73.8 88.2 10.07150 9.83940 19.91090 -2.21700 -0.71970 White Sox 4 15 .412 63.2 98.8 1.41480 1.66490 3.07970 -1.32010 -15.84580
Average wins by position in AL west: 94.3 87.0 81.4 75.8 68.3 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rangers 12 8 .517 86.3 75.7 34.72930 27.65910 62.38840 1.87130 14.04320 Angels 10 9 .470 77.7 84.3 10.55560 18.63070 29.18630 .05820 -18.16590 Mariners 10 10 .513 83.5 78.5 24.09040 26.87730 50.96770 -0.22980 18.74040 Astros 9 10 .507 82.8 79.2 21.80890 26.20540 48.01430 6.60950 -5.07560 Athletics 9 11 .472 76.6 85.4 8.81580 16.56600 25.38180 -3.20040 8.25910 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 91.9 87.6 87.3
Average wins by position in NL East: 93.7 84.6 78.4 72.3 64.5 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Mets 13 7 .540 89.7 72.3 56.95410 11.44000 68.39410 7.07090 19.07330 Phillies 12 8 .480 79.8 82.2 17.70710 11.25850 28.96560 2.22280 -8.51360 Marlins 8 11 .472 75.1 86.9 7.94350 7.29640 15.23990 -5.05860 -2.19500 Nationals 7 12 .452 71.3 90.7 4.50970 3.91390 8.42360 -1.35550 -27.48490 Braves 6 13 .498 77.5 84.5 12.88560 9.04910 21.93470 -0.76750 -2.06360
Average wins by position in NL Central: 99.2 89.6 82.9 76.6 68.5 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 13 9 .588 95.9 66.1 62.47590 21.68250 84.15840 1.87380 26.89720 Brewers 11 9 .489 79.2 82.8 6.62080 17.21640 23.83720 -0.11370 -4.04240 Reds 10 10 .513 82.0 80.0 10.48100 22.75880 33.23980 7.74890 -0.91580 Cardinals 9 11 .546 85.5 76.5 17.80110 29.36540 47.16650 -3.93660 5.68780 Pirates 8 13 .480 74.3 87.7 2.62120 8.89920 11.52040 -2.65400 -6.96050
Average wins by position in NL West: 101.4 93.3 86.8 79.3 62.4 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Padres 15 5 .566 94.7 67.3 41.84630 38.30610 80.15240 -1.60810 12.82770 Dodgers 15 6 .511 86.0 76.0 13.35310 36.01710 49.37020 5.21280 -20.04980 Giants 13 7 .548 90.8 71.2 25.99000 41.89100 67.88100 .17709 .90880 Diamondbacks 12 8 .542 88.5 73.5 18.71010 39.64460 58.35470 -8.83850 11.47240 Rockies 3 15 .427 63.2 98.8 .10050 1.26100 1.36150 .02620 -4.64160 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 95.3 90.8 87.4
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
