Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Fri Aug 18 08:01:42 EDT 2017
Average wins by position in AL East: 92.9 88.7 81.7 78.3 74.9 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Red Sox 69 51 .543 90.9 71.1 51.69691 45.85651 97.55342 Yankees 65 55 .604 90.6 71.4 47.80254 48.99213 96.79467 Rays 60 63 .531 80.4 81.6 .38418 14.65976 15.04393 Blue Jays 59 62 .464 77.5 84.5 .06948 3.57482 3.64431 Orioles 59 62 .461 77.2 84.8 .04689 3.11298 3.15987
Average wins by position in AL Central: 92.2 82.5 78.4 72.1 64.2 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Indians 66 53 .588 92.2 69.8 97.03022 1.82043 98.85065 Royals 61 59 .477 81.0 81.0 2.25227 17.43969 19.69196 Twins 60 59 .452 79.7 82.3 .71167 11.20302 11.91469 Tigers 53 67 .455 72.1 89.9 .00585 .07094 .07679 White Sox 45 73 .431 64.4 97.6 .00000 .00003 .00003
Average wins by position in AL west: 99.3 83.9 80.5 77.5 71.6 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 74 47 .610 99.3 62.7 99.87431 .07306 99.94737 Angels 62 59 .485 81.4 80.6 .07715 23.57608 23.65323 Mariners 61 61 .489 79.4 82.6 .01222 9.85435 9.86657 Rangers 60 60 .501 80.8 81.2 .03620 19.69069 19.72689 Athletics 53 68 .476 71.9 90.1 .00013 .07550 .07563 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 89.0 84.9
Average wins by position in NL East: 97.7 81.0 74.8 70.6 61.3 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Nationals 72 47 .579 97.7 64.3 99.88220 .04473 99.92693 Marlins 58 61 .502 80.6 81.4 .10995 5.89934 6.00929 Braves 54 65 .442 73.6 88.4 .00455 .05983 .06438 Mets 53 66 .447 72.1 89.9 .00330 .01044 .01374 Phillies 43 76 .424 61.4 100.6 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 88.7 84.9 81.0 75.4 69.4 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Cubs 63 57 .547 87.0 75.0 56.28274 10.37369 66.65643 Brewers 63 59 .486 81.7 80.3 7.59756 5.29355 12.89111 Cardinals 62 59 .549 85.6 76.4 35.86978 13.23006 49.09983 Pirates 58 63 .443 75.2 86.8 .24823 .14037 .38859 Reds 51 71 .459 69.9 92.1 .00170 .00084 .00254
Average wins by position in NL West: 113.2 92.0 86.7 70.6 64.1 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Dodgers 85 34 .645 113.1 48.9 99.95265 .02245 99.97510 Diamondbacks 67 54 .578 91.2 70.8 .03490 94.48667 94.52157 Rockies 67 54 .501 87.4 74.6 .01245 70.43510 70.44755 Padres 54 67 .427 70.3 91.7 .00000 .00295 .00295 Giants 49 74 .409 64.4 97.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 92.0 87.5
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
