Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Wed Aug 20 07:25:55 EDT 2014


Average wins by position in AL East:  92.7 84.8 81.6 78.9 71.7
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Orioles           72   52   .530   92.6   69.4   95.42478    1.05173   96.47651        2.50138   6.53854
Blue Jays         64   62   .505   82.1   79.9    1.58403    3.30141    4.88544       -3.68749 -14.22324
Yankees           63   60   .487   82.0   80.0    1.92417    3.20680    5.13097       -3.90199  -5.97298
Rays              61   64   .546   81.3   80.7    1.06680    1.85071    2.91751       -2.40249  -4.80413
Red Sox           56   69   .453   71.8   90.2     .00022     .00107     .00129       -0.00096  -0.01314

Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.3 87.5 82.5 75.7 71.2
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            70   55   .514   90.0   72.0   60.93540   16.52081   77.45621         .86742  20.61615
Tigers            67   56   .536   88.3   73.7   35.36418   22.60404   57.96822        3.73161    .25795
Indians           63   61   .515   83.0   79.0    3.68755    4.75303    8.44058         .29028  -3.75300
White Sox         59   67   .463   75.1   86.9     .01240     .01914     .03154       -0.04499  -0.45647
Twins             55   69   .458   72.0   90.0     .00047     .00135     .00181       -0.00412  -0.07144

Average wins by position in AL west:  97.8 94.2 87.5 69.0 61.9
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Angels            74   50   .583   95.7   66.3   47.11592   51.70891   98.82482         .08513    .72913
Athletics         74   51   .594   96.0   66.0   51.80392   47.34581   99.14972         .06093  -0.71165
Mariners          68   57   .547   87.7   74.3    1.08017   47.63521   48.71537        2.50526   1.86428
Astros            53   73   .458   68.8   93.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Rangers           48   77   .408   62.1   99.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  93.8 89.0

Average wins by position in NL East:  93.0 84.6 80.1 75.2 70.1
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         71   53   .561   92.9   69.1   95.66713    3.32497   98.99210         .28598   4.49451
Braves            66   60   .489   84.0   78.0    3.71196   37.59636   41.30832        9.25169  27.82289
Marlins           63   62   .477   80.3   81.7     .61094    8.51275    9.12369        1.12652  -0.74374
Mets              59   68   .460   75.2   86.8     .00998     .25050     .26047       -0.12710  -1.77161
Phillies          55   71   .443   70.5   91.5     .00000     .00372     .00372       -0.00377  -0.01605

Average wins by position in NL Central:  90.9 87.2 82.8 78.4 72.1
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Brewers           71   55   .526   89.9   72.1   64.93557   28.71261   93.64818        2.68991  16.56075
Cardinals         68   57   .525   87.6   74.4   31.13197   50.81037   81.94234        5.86153  22.79949
Pirates           64   62   .522   82.9   79.1    3.62943   24.76595   28.39538       -9.53565 -44.86934
Reds              61   65   .497   78.7   83.3     .30247    3.94545    4.24792       -2.40972 -19.00070
Cubs              55   70   .485   72.4   89.6     .00057     .02943     .03000         .00371  -0.03378

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.6 84.1 76.6 69.6 65.3
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           71   56   .557   91.4   70.6   92.79343    5.40983   98.20326         .49921  -0.84222
Giants            65   59   .501   84.1   77.9    7.09308   35.75666   42.84974       -7.28004  -3.29138
Padres            58   66   .471   76.6   85.4     .11345     .88108     .99453       -0.36153  -1.09821
Diamondbacks      53   73   .433   68.8   93.2     .00003     .00032     .00036       -0.00073  -0.01057
Rockies           49   76   .458   66.3   95.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  87.6 85.1

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.