Postseason Odds
<p>

<i>Playing the rest of the season a million times</i><p>

<i>by Clay Davenport</i>
<p>
See the <a href=http://www.claydavenport.com/stats/ps_oddspec.html>Forecast-adjusted version</a> of this report. 
<p> 

Generated Tue Oct 2 08:03:47 EDT 2018
<hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL East:  108.0 100.0 90.0 73.0 47.0
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=aleastdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=aleastwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=aleast.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=RedSoxpsodds.txt>Red Sox</a>          108   54   .603  108.0   54.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Yankeespsodds.txt>Yankees</a>          100   62   .591  100.0   62.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Devilpsodds.txt>Rays</a>              90   72   .583   90.0   72.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Bluepsodds.txt>Blue Jays</a>         73   89   .439   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Oriolespsodds.txt>Orioles</a>           47  115   .364   47.0  115.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL Central:  91.0 78.0 64.0 62.0 58.0
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=alcentdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=alcentwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=alcent.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Indianspsodds.txt>Indians</a>           91   71   .551   91.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Twinspsodds.txt>Twins</a>             78   84   .434   78.0   84.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Tigerspsodds.txt>Tigers</a>            64   98   .390   64.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Whitepsodds.txt>White Sox</a>         62  100   .397   62.0  100.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Royalspsodds.txt>Royals</a>            58  104   .383   58.0  104.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in AL west:  103.0 97.0 89.0 80.0 67.0
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=alwestdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=alwestwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=alwest.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Astrospsodds.txt>Astros</a>           103   59   .637  103.0   59.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Athleticspsodds.txt>Athletics</a>         97   65   .581   97.0   65.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Marinerspsodds.txt>Mariners</a>          89   73   .508   89.0   73.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Angelspsodds.txt>Angels</a>            80   82   .503   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Rangerspsodds.txt>Rangers</a>           67   95   .431   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  100.0 97.0
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL East:  90.0 82.0 80.0 77.0 63.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=nleastdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=nleastwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=nleast.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Bravespsodds.txt>Braves</a>            90   72   .559   90.0   72.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Nationalspsodds.txt>Nationals</a>         82   80   .549   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Philliespsodds.txt>Phillies</a>          80   82   .480   80.0   82.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Metspsodds.txt>Mets</a>              77   85   .483   77.0   85.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Marlinspsodds.txt>Marlins</a>           63   98   .398   63.0   98.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL Central:  96.0 95.0 88.0 82.0 67.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=nlcentdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=nlcentwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=nlcent.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Brewerspsodds.txt>Brewers</a>           96   67   .564   96.0   67.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .24429
<a href=Cubspsodds.txt>Cubs</a>              95   68   .547   95.0   68.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000    .02184
<a href=Cardinalspsodds.txt>Cardinals</a>         88   74   .521   88.0   74.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000 -54.98899
<a href=Piratespsodds.txt>Pirates</a>           82   79   .495   82.0   79.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Redspsodds.txt>Reds</a>              67   95   .453   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
</pre><hr size=2><pre>
Average wins by position in NL West:  92.0 91.0 82.0 73.0 66.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  <a href=nlwestdiv.png>Champions</a>  <a href=nlwestwc.png>Wild Card</a>   <a href=nlwest.png>Playoffs</a>      1D Change 7D Change
<a href=Dodgerspsodds.txt>Dodgers</a>           92   71   .630   92.0   71.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000   5.84473
<a href=Rockiespsodds.txt>Rockies</a>           91   72   .530   91.0   72.0     .00000  100.00000  100.00000         .00000  48.87813
<a href=Diamondbackspsodds.txt>Diamondbacks</a>      82   80   .524   82.0   80.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Giantspsodds.txt>Giants</a>            73   89   .444   73.0   89.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
<a href=Padrespsodds.txt>Padres</a>            66   96   .428   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  94.4 90.4
</pre>
<hr size=2>

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte
Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins,
losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the <a
href=http://claydavenport.com/stats/standings.html>Adjusted
Standings Report</a>. <p>

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3
from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the
rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning
percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal
distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used
for the remainder of the season in that iteration.  To simulate the normal 4%
home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the
visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is
determined by the <a
href=http://www.diamond-mind.com/articles/playoff2002.htm>log5 method</a>.

<b>W</b> and <b>L</b> are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.<p>

<b>Pct3</b> is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the
regression-to-mean component.<p>

<b>Avg W</b> and <b>Avg L</b> are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.<p>

<b>Champions</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the
championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5
championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25
for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!<p>

<b>Wild Card</b> is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As
with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
<p>

<b>Playoffs</b> is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.<p>