Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Mon Aug 31 07:59:46 EDT 2015


Average wins by position in AL East:  93.6 89.2 81.2 77.4 73.6
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Blue Jays         74   56   .604   92.8   69.2   73.05093   26.57740   99.62833         .09064   2.17833
Yankees           72   57   .561   89.9   72.1   26.85978   70.28722   97.14699         .60621   2.78725
Rays              64   66   .535   80.4   81.6     .08098   10.16373   10.24471         .83418 -15.30531
Orioles           63   67   .497   77.5   84.5     .00813    1.72583    1.73395       -1.94338 -12.42048
Red Sox           60   70   .486   74.5   87.5     .00020     .14890     .14910       -0.20059    .03107

Average wins by position in AL Central:  97.5 83.2 80.0 76.7 73.5
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Royals            80   50   .541   97.5   64.5   99.91053     .03851   99.94905       -0.00012    .03395
Twins             67   63   .446   80.9   81.1     .03493   14.01559   14.05052        2.03898   6.77126
Indians           63   66   .556   81.6   80.4     .05238   19.69466   19.74704         .99723   9.65240
White Sox         61   68   .454   75.4   86.6     .00122     .40787     .40909         .03860  -0.84179
Tigers            60   70   .490   75.6   86.4     .00093     .58378     .58471       -0.49456  -4.74664

Average wins by position in AL west:  90.3 84.2 79.9 76.1 72.5
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Astros            72   59   .579   90.1   71.9   90.00584    7.42443   97.43027       -1.05451    .98984
Rangers           68   61   .488   83.8   78.2    8.96696   39.54642   48.51337        4.48739  19.09609
Angels            65   65   .486   80.0   82.0     .99651    8.91654    9.91304       -4.89011  -8.08211
Mariners          61   70   .481   75.6   86.4     .02807     .42115     .44922       -0.51531  -0.04708
Athletics         57   74   .540   73.6   88.4     .00263     .04798     .05061         .00536  -0.09681

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.3 85.1

Average wins by position in NL East:  90.3 84.5 69.3 66.3 63.2
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Mets              72   58   .519   90.0   72.0   86.86360     .79575   87.65935         .10799   4.82847
Nationals         66   63   .520   84.8   77.2   13.13640    2.11963   15.25603         .03643  -4.08993
Braves            54   76   .393   67.1   94.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00108
Marlins           52   79   .452   67.2   94.8     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00010  -0.00078
Phillies          52   79   .382   64.5   97.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00010

Average wins by position in NL Central:  102.6 97.2 91.7 70.2 66.5
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cardinals         84   46   .555  102.2   59.8   87.71930   12.23173   99.95103         .00217    .07422
Pirates           79   50   .534   97.1   65.9   11.51440   87.98835   99.50275       -0.12103    .69920
Cubs              74   55   .527   92.2   70.8     .76630   88.73945   89.50575        6.96143    .85584
Brewers           55   75   .441   68.5   93.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              53   76   .474   68.1   93.9     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00015

Average wins by position in NL West:  91.7 86.2 80.0 76.3 66.0
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           72   57   .571   91.4   70.6   84.86175    2.08922   86.95097       -1.88427  13.22723
Giants            69   61   .533   86.4   75.6   14.92037    5.94709   20.86745       -4.99964 -11.62594
Diamondbacks      63   67   .497   78.7   83.3     .14830     .06974     .21804       -0.14375  -3.38765
Padres            63   67   .443   77.7   84.3     .06958     .01903     .08862         .04074  -0.57933
Rockies           52   76   .418   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  96.7 91.4

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.