Playing the rest of the season a million times
by Clay Davenport
See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.
Generated Mon Oct 4 10:14:26 EDT 2021
Average wins by position in AL East: 100.0 92.0 92.0 91.0 52.0 AL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Rays 100 62 .590 100.0 62.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Red Sox 92 70 .529 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 21.25453 32.71403 Yankees 92 70 .550 92.0 70.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 21.52535 25.13017 Blue Jays 91 71 .600 91.0 71.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -25.69628 -51.75430 Orioles 52 110 .385 52.0 110.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL Central: 93.0 80.0 77.0 74.0 73.0 AL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change White Sox 93 69 .576 93.0 69.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Indians 80 82 .476 80.0 82.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Tigers 77 85 .440 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Royals 74 88 .449 74.0 88.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Twins 73 89 .461 73.0 89.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in AL west: 95.0 90.0 86.0 77.0 60.0 AL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Astros 95 67 .604 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .05942 Mariners 90 72 .445 90.0 72.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 -17.08360 -5.26260 Athletics 86 76 .521 86.0 76.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.88674 Angels 77 85 .462 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rangers 60 102 .400 60.0 102.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by AL Wild Card: 92.0 92.0
Average wins by position in NL East: 88.6 82.0 77.0 67.0 65.0 NL East W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Braves 88 73 .559 88.6 73.4 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 6.97803 Phillies 82 80 .506 82.0 80.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -6.97837 Mets 77 85 .504 77.0 85.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Marlins 67 95 .454 67.0 95.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Nationals 65 97 .480 65.0 97.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL Central: 95.0 90.0 83.0 71.0 61.0 NL Central W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Brewers 95 67 .551 95.0 67.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Cardinals 90 72 .516 90.0 72.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00740 Reds 83 79 .497 83.0 79.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 -0.00705 Cubs 71 91 .417 71.0 91.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Pirates 61 101 .369 61.0 101.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Average wins by position in NL West: 107.0 106.0 79.0 74.4 52.0 NL West W L Pct3 Avg W Avg L Champions Wild Card Playoffs 1D Change 7D Change Giants 107 55 .627 107.0 55.0 100.00000 .00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Dodgers 106 56 .655 106.0 56.0 .00000 100.00000 100.00000 .00000 .00000 Padres 79 83 .516 79.0 83.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Rockies 74 87 .474 74.4 87.6 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Diamondbacks 52 110 .390 52.0 110.0 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 Average wins by NL Wild Card: 106.0 90.0
Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.
Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.
Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.
Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!
Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.
Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.
