Postseason Odds

Playing the rest of the season a million times

by Clay Davenport

See the Forecast-adjusted version of this report.

Generated Sat Sep 24 07:59:36 EDT 2016


Average wins by position in AL East:  94.7 89.1 86.6 82.9 69.3
AL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Red Sox           90   64   .630   94.7   67.3   99.27377     .72615   99.99992         .00117   1.99239
Blue Jays         84   69   .566   88.8   73.2     .72327   80.21784   80.94111        4.68988   2.65543
Orioles           83   71   .516   86.9   75.1     .00297   34.20961   34.21258        2.90207 -35.34726
Yankees           79   74   .501   83.0   79.0     .00000     .53832     .53832       -1.50609  -2.72435
Rays              65   88   .512   69.3   92.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL Central:  95.0 87.7 80.8 76.4 58.4
AL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Indians           90   63   .569   95.0   67.0   99.81175     .18817   99.99992         .00156    .21774
Tigers            83   70   .517   87.7   74.3     .18825   61.03382   61.22207        6.15520  44.62592
Royals            77   77   .462   80.8   81.2     .00000     .00046     .00046       -0.01560  -0.08046
White Sox         72   81   .468   76.5   85.5     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000  -0.00159
Twins             55   99   .426   58.4  103.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in AL west:  95.2 86.6 84.6 72.2 69.6
AL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Rangers           91   63   .489   95.2   66.8  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00292
Mariners          81   72   .510   85.9   76.1     .00000   15.17528   15.17528        1.63896  -7.55058
Astros            81   73   .504   85.4   76.6     .00000    7.91036    7.91036      -13.86712  -3.79014
Angels            68   86   .444   71.9   90.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Athletics         66   87   .442   69.9   92.1     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by AL Wild Card:  89.4 87.9

Average wins by position in NL East:  94.8 86.4 79.8 72.3 67.0
NL East           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Nationals         89   64   .593   94.8   67.2   99.99660     .00340  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Mets              82   72   .504   86.4   75.6     .00340   83.85756   83.86096       13.21998  -3.28537
Marlins           76   78   .486   79.8   82.2     .00000     .05627     .05627       -0.18791  -1.31881
Phillies          69   85   .408   72.3   89.7     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Braves            63   91   .446   67.0   95.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL Central:  104.0 85.2 80.4 73.8 66.0
NL Central        W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Cubs              98   55   .649  104.0   58.0  100.00000     .00000  100.00000         .00000    .00000
Cardinals         80   73   .541   85.2   76.8     .00000   55.32090   55.32090       -4.00721  30.66162
Pirates           77   76   .466   80.4   81.6     .00000     .45096     .45096         .27711    .25792
Brewers           70   84   .473   73.8   88.2     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Reds              63   90   .406   66.0   96.0     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by position in NL West:  92.5 85.4 76.8 69.1 67.1
NL West           W    L    Pct3  Avg W  Avg L  Champions  Wild Card   Playoffs      1D Change 7D Change
Dodgers           88   66   .565   92.5   69.5   99.92610     .07358   99.99968         .00525    .16486
Giants            81   73   .534   85.4   76.6     .07390   60.23733   60.31123       -9.30713 -26.45362
Rockies           73   81   .502   76.8   85.2     .00000     .00000     .00000       -0.00010  -0.02661
Padres            65   89   .425   68.4   93.6     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000
Diamondbacks      64   89   .446   67.7   94.3     .00000     .00000     .00000         .00000    .00000

Average wins by NL Wild Card:  87.0 85.7

As the title says, the post-season odds report was compiled by running a Monte Carlo simulation of the rest of the season one million times. Current wins, losses and expected winning percentages are taken from the Adjusted Standings Report.

Expected winning percentages (EWP) for each team starts with their W3 and L3 from the Adjusted Standings. A regression is applied to derive the EWP for the rest of the season, which is going to be between the current winning percentage and .500. To allow for uncertainty in the EWP, a normal distribution centered on the EWP is randomly sampled, and that value is used for the remainder of the season in that iteration. To simulate the normal 4% home-field advantage, the home team gets a .020 point bonus, while the visitors take a 0.020 penalty. The likelihood of winning each game is determined by the log5 method. W and L are the team's wins and losses through yesterday's games.

Pct3 is the expected winning percentage, taken from W3 and L3, with the regression-to-mean component.

Avg W and Avg L are the average number of wins and losses each team finishes over the million season iterations.

Champions is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the championship of their division. Ties are not broken, but credited as 0.5 championships apiece (for a two-way tie), .333 apiece for a three-way tie, .25 for four-way, etc. This is why the final decimal place is not an error!

Wild Card is how often, in percentage terms, this team won the wild card. As with championships, ties are not broken, but apportioned among the tied teams.

Playoffs is how often, in percentage terms, the team either wins the division or the wild card.